Toyota Motor Trading forecasts and signals

On Sunday, the US Senate passed the so-called "anti-inflation law" with total funding for $750 billion in the areas of ecology, health and energy generation.Where will the money for the anti-inflation law come from?The developers of the bill plan to receive more than $700 billion over the next decade by fixing the minimum tax rate of 15% for corporations with an income of more than $1 billion, as well as introducing a 1% tax on share buybacks.In the Democrat-controlled Senate, the vote took place with a minimum margin of 51-50, now on August 12, the law must pass the House of Representatives, which is controlled by the same Democrats, and get to Biden's table.Where will the US government send the funds?Climate: Biden's environmental agendaThe largest funding package concerns Joe Biden's environmental program to achieve the election goal. The main provision of the program was to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50% until 2030. In the USA, they are quite attentive to this direction, because if we leave the situation unchanged, by the end of the century the temperature in the country will be higher than in Dubai.Against the background of climate warming, forest fires have more than tripled in the states, which also increases government spending on planting new forests. This package provides subsidies and tax benefits for a wide range of industrial enterprises. To a greater extent, utility and manufacturing companies will benefit from the transition of equipment to more environmentally friendly energy sources, and manufacturers of equipment for solar and wind energy.While it is difficult to single out individual manufacturing companies, now their plans are more difficult to predict due to the recession. But there are also obvious brands like Enphase Energy (ENPH), Array Technologies (ARRY) and First Solar (FSLR).Medicine: subsidies for fixing pricesIn the medical direction, subsidies from the Medicare and Obamacare insurance programs will be introduced for medicines in pharmacies and prescriptions from doctors. Also, representatives of state insurance programs will be allowed to "bargain" with corporations to fix prices for the most necessary medicines like insulin. It is planned to start with ten names, expand the list to 15 by 2027 and bring it to 20 by 2029.Subsidies in this direction will not have a significant impact on manufacturers of medicines, but rather will act as additional social protection of the population.Electrification and electric cars: tax benefitsThe text of the bill provides for stimulation in the form of tax benefits for individuals. When transferring home electricity supply to a wide range of different sources of alternative energy, citizens of the country will receive a tax cut that in the United States is almost 50%. This will benefit both citizens themselves and utility companies like Chinese component manufacturer JinkoSolar (JKS) and energy generating Entergy Corporation (ETR), Clearway Energy (CWEN), Vistra Energy Corp. (VST).The incentive measures from the new law also apply to electric car manufacturers and will be useful for Ford (T), Tesla (TSLA), Toyota Motor (TM) and Rivian Automotive ...

Toyota Motor Corp's global production for the first five months of 2022 decreased by an average of 9.7% compared to the target, which raises the question of whether the Japanese automaker will be able to maintain the desired level of production in the current fiscal year.The world's largest automaker reported that 634,940 vehicles were produced worldwide in May, which is 5.3% less than in the same month last year, and falls short of the target of 700,000. For the third month in a row, Toyota has not fulfilled its monthly plan.The company is sticking to its goal of producing a record 9.7 million cars a year, but admits the possibility that its production plan may be lower. In June, the automaker reduced its production figures twice. The latest forecast is 750,000 vehicles, which is about 12% lower than the original estimate of 850,000.Toyota explains the lag behind the plan by the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic, which led to a shortage of components and microchips manufactured in China. Recall that this situation at Toyota enterprises has been going on for the fourth month: since March, the corporation has been forced to periodically stop production and reduce the total output of cars due to the lack of components. Today, at the premarket in the United States, the ADR quotes of the Japanese corporation are rising by 0.53%, as the market apparently expects that adjustments in Toyota's production plans will benefit ...

Japanese automaker Toyota Motor Corp. halved the stake in the American Uber Technologies Inc and currently owns 5.13 million shares.Despite the fact that Toyota has been investing in Uber Technologies shares since 2016, its share in the capital of this company was very small, not exceeding even 1% of the shares, which, apparently, was due to the Japanese interest only in driverless driving technologies, but Uber has already sold this business.Today, Toyota has only 0.26% of Uber shares, which at that time were worth a total of $183 million. Today, the value of the Japanese corporation's stake in Uber has fallen by 40% compared to March of this year to $110 million. Nevertheless, shares of Uber Technologies are growing by 0.8% today in the premarket in the United ...

The market the day beforeOn June 22, US stock exchanges closed with a slight drop in the main indices. The S&P 500 dropped 0.13% to 3,760 points, the Nasdaq lost 0.15%, and the Dow Jones declined 0.13%. The health sector (+1.42%) and utility providers (+1.03%) showed positive dynamics. Energy companies (-4.19%) and suppliers of raw materials (-1.29%) looked worse than the market.Company newsModerna (MRNA: +4.68%) stated that a new version of its booster vaccine showed high efficacy against many subspecies of the omicron strain.Toyota Motor (TM: +0.03%) lowered the July forecast of car production by 50 thousand units, to 800 thousand, due to a shortage of spare parts and the extension of the suspension of work at a number of plants. At the same time, the company has more than doubled the sales guidance of electric vehicles by 2030.The FDA is preparing an order banning the sale of Juul Labs electronic cigarettes on the US market. 35% of the capital of this company belongs to Altria Group (MO: -9.19%).We expectThe speech of the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell in the US Congress on June 22 did not surprise market participants. However, the tightening of the PREP continues to reduce investors' appetite for risk, especially given the growing doubts that regulators will be able to ensure a soft landing of the economy amid problems in supply chains, high commodity prices and geopolitical uncertainty. Powell noted that the Fed will adapt to the reaction of the economy, but, of course, will continue to take all measures to slow down inflation to the 2% target. The Fed chairman acknowledged that raising rates could trigger a recession, although he again stressed the strong positions of the labor market and the American economy as a whole, which are able to withstand a rise in the discount rate to 3.5–4%.Fears of a possible recession in the context of tightening financial conditions by world central banks and, accordingly, weakening demand for raw materials and energy, as well as the prospect of introducing tax holidays on fuel charges in the United States put pressure on oil quotes. Credit Suisse notes that in the oil derivatives market, investors are laying down the risk of prices moving down. However, the recovery of economic activity in China and the structural deficit in the black gold market remain factors supporting prices. Since the beginning of the year, quotations of energy sector companies from the S&P 500 index have increased by 32%.The Asia-Pacific stock exchanges closed the trading session on June 23 in the green zone. Japan's Nikkei gained 0.08%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.26%, China's CSI 300 rose 1.72%. EuroStoxx 50 has been losing 0.67% since the opening of trading.Brent crude futures are trading at $110 per barrel. The price of gold is $1,839 per troy ounce.In our opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 3700-3770 points.MacrostatisticsBusiness activity indices (PMI) for June for the manufacturing sector and the service sector will be published today. The consensus forecast assumes a slight change to 56.3 and 53.6 points, respectively.Sentiment IndexThe sentiment index added one point to 27.Technical pictureDespite the efforts of the bulls, the S&P 500 closed in the red by the end of the last trading session. The RSI is held near neutral values. Although the MACD indicates a weakening of the bears' activity, sellers still dominate the market. The nearest support level is the range of 3600-3660 points.ReportsToday, after the market closes, the results for the IV fiscal quarter will be released by one of the world's leading logistics companies, FedEx Corporation (FDX). The issuer's revenue and EPS are expected to be $24.49 billion and $6.87 billion (+8.4% YoY and +37% YoY). After the departure of founder Frederick Smith from the post of president, positive changes began in the company: new members appeared on the board of directors, the KPI was updated, which is now tied to the indicators that form the value of the company. In addition, the issuer recently increased its quarterly dividend by more than 50%. At the moment, FedEx generates higher operating indicators compared to the level noted a few quarters ago, despite increased fuel and salary ...

The market the day beforeThe main American stock indexes ended the trading session on May 11 in the red zone. The S&P 500 dropped by 1.65% to 3,935 points, the Nasdaq lost 3.18%, the Dow Jones adjusted by 1.02%. The energy sector (+1.34%) and utility providers (+0.72%) looked better than the market. Among the outsiders were manufacturers of discretionary goods (-3.58%) and the IT sector (-3.16%).Company newsThe quarterly results of Electronic Arts Inc. (EA: +7.97%) were slightly below consensus forecasts, but management presented a positive guidance for the current fiscal year. The company announced the termination of a long-term partnership with FIFA and the rebranding of its own football simulator.Walt Disney (DIS: -2.29%) did not meet expectations in terms of revenue and profit, although both key areas of the issuer's business (media services and theme parks) showed strong growth in operating profit, and the number of new subscribers of Disney+ streaming exceeded analysts' forecasts.Toyota Motor (TM: -5.64%) reported for the first quarter better than the preliminary estimates of experts. However, despite stable annual sales, management forecasts a 20% decrease in operating profit this year due to rising logistics and raw materials costs.We expectBy the end of April, annual consumer inflation in the United States slowed from 8.5% to 8.3%, but the indicator exceeded economists' expectations. The growth of the base CPI also turned out to be higher than the value predicted by experts, amounting to 6.2%, due to the increase in air ticket prices on the eve of the tourist season and the rise in fuel prices. Nevertheless, there is already a gradual stabilization of supplies due to the unloading of ports. The April inflation data at the moment increased investors' concern about a possible tightening of the Fed's rhetoric and provoked renewed speculation about an increase in the discount rate by 75 basis points (bp), as the regulator is forced to resist persistently high inflation.However, these fears were not justified: even the most determined member of the FOMC, the president of the St. Louis Fed, James Bullard, said on May 11 that, despite high inflation in April, a half-percent rate hike at least at the next two meetings is the main guideline and a broader change is not required. At the same time, the official still adheres to the thesis that it is preferable to raise the rate to 3.5% by the end of the year. The head of the Atlanta Fed, Rafael Bostic, also supports expanding the target range of the rate, but to a neutral 2-2.5%, noting that at the moment there is a surplus of funds in the amount of about $ 1-2 trillion on the Fed's balance sheet. After the comments of the representatives of the Federal Reserve, investors weakened expectations about the strengthening of the "hawkish" rhetoric of the regulator: apparently, officials were able to convince the market that the regulator intends to maintain the current rate of change in the base rate by 50 bp. According to the dynamics of futures, the probability of such a development is 97%.The stock exchanges of the Asia-Pacific region closed the trading session on May 12 with a drop in the main indices. Japan's Nikkei adjusted by 1.77%, China's CSI 300 lost 0.44%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped by 2.24%. EuroStoxx 50 has been losing 2.59% since the opening of trading.The price of Brent crude oil futures rose to $107.5 per barrel. Gold is trading at $1853 per troy ounce.In our opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 3900-3980 points.MacrostatisticsThe US producer price index for April will be published today. The consensus forecast assumes that the rate of industrial inflation will slow down to 0.5% mom and 10.7% YoY after 1.4% mom and 11.2% YoY by the end of March.Sentiment IndexThe sentiment index dropped 2 points to 34.Technical pictureAt the beginning of trading on May 11, the S&P 500 attempted to grow by almost 1%, but failed to gain a foothold above the psychologically significant 4,000 points. Taking into account the technical oversold stocks, a short-term rebound is possible, but the RSI and MACD confirm the continuation of the "bearish" trend. In the context of a gradual tightening of global financial conditions, the medium-term trend of market movement remains downward. The closest support is the level of 3850-3900 ...

Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T) improved the profit forecast for the current fiscal year. The reason for this, the management of the auto giant calls the devaluation of the yen with steadily growing demand for cars. Management believes that these factors are able to compensate for the pressure associated with the shortage of microchips, as well as ongoing supply chain problems and strict quarantine restrictions re-introduced in major industrial centers of China. Toyota plans to partially shift the increase in costs caused by negative factors to buyers by raising prices for its cars. The current market consensus includes an 11% increase in Toyota's operating profit in the current fiscal year, to $25.7 billion, and a 37% increase in profit for the year ended in April, to approximately $23 billion.According to the results of the last financial year, Toyota management records an increase in sales volumes for the first time since 2019. At the same time, in April-June 2022, the company will be forced to reduce production volumes, since its suppliers are not able to provide it with electronic components in full and on time. The financial results of the Toyota Motor concern will be released on May ...

A division of Japanese automaker Toyota Motor Women Planet has joined Tesla Inc to develop self-driving technology without expensive sensors. Women Planet plans to use inexpensive cameras to collect data and effectively train a self-driving system. This solution will help to reduce costs and expand the scale of the technology.Collecting data from self-driving cars using cameras is a reliable and accurate way to determine the advantages and disadvantages of the system. Tesla has used this strategy with its cars to process a wide array of data to improve the performance of its autopilot.Toyota shares in the premarket on April 7 rose by 1.97% to $180 per ...

Last week Toyota Motor Corp. (TYO: 7203) announced the extension of the suspension of production in Japan due to a shortage of spare parts. After that, the issuer's shares went down, having fallen in price for the week from $188 to $181 (-3.72%). New details have emerged today: in January, the company will suspend operations at five plants due to supply failures and a shortage of chips, as well as due to the worsening epidemic situation.Toyota's quotes have updated historical highs several times this year (most recently last week) due to very strong quarterly results. Although the company retains a good potential for growth in the long term (since it plans to release more than 30 models of batteries for electric cars by 2030), however, in the coming month its quotes will be under pressure due to the suspension of factories. The fall from historical highs can be quite serious, so for guidance we will take the semi-annual and annual lows. The first are located at around $165 per share, and in the last six months the paper has been trading in a sideways range of $165-185. Thus, even the technical picture indicates that in the near future we will almost certainly see $165 per paper. At the same time, a further decline in quotations to annual lows in the region of $140-145 per share is not excluded. This option is very likely if the production shutdown is extended again or it will greatly affect the company's reporting for the first quarter of 2022.For the next month, our forecast for the dynamics of Toyota quotes is negative, we expect a decline to ...