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Alternative investments

Alternative investments

Alternative investments are capital investment options that extend beyond traditional investment instruments (stocks, bonds, ETFs and mutual funds). If traditional investment assets are understood as those that are placed on public stock markets, then alternative investments include objects that can potentially bring profit, but are not directly related to the stock market: real estate, paintings, wine, retro cars, collectible vintage jewelry and watches, Lego figures, stamps… Such "exhibits" were previously perceived exclusively as luxury items and an indicator of prosperity. But given the fact that they have the property of increasing the estimated value over time, these objects have become on a par with traditional investment tools. Alternative investments, as in the traditional version, are also based on the goal of obtaining additional income due to the growth of the market valuation of the investment object. Therefore, they may well be used by investors to diversify their portfolios widely.

Unlike stock instruments, alternative investment objects have their own characteristics, starting from the method of evaluation, ending with their specific risks. In this article, we will try to get deeper into the backstage of unconventional ways of investing:

  • Types of alternative investments.
  • Features of alternative investments.
  • Advantages and disadvantages of alternative investments

Types of alternative investments

Usually, a number of factors lead to alternative ways of placing investors' capital, such as:

  • Loss of trust and reduced confidence in traditional types of investments in times of crisis.
  • Search for options for a broader diversification of the investment portfolio.
  • Personal interest in art or jewelry.
  • The desire to combine "pleasant with useful" by investing in what you like and what you want to possess.

Such investments are available to literally everyone without special procedural specifics in the form of opening an escrow or brokerage account, obtaining a special status of a qualified investor ("Which gives the status of a qualified investor").

Investing in precious stones

Investments in precious stones seem quite attractive. Stones, like precious metals, grow in price over a long horizon, they have high aesthetic qualities in themselves (as a decoration or an interior detail). They are a "universal currency", especially in times of severe crises. The most popular "stone investments" are: ruby, tourmaline, alexandrite, sapphire, emerald, diamond. The possession of stones is not taxed, the purchase and sale does not require a special contract. There are absolutely rare stones, for example, emeralds or alexandrites; there are not many deposits of them, and they themselves are very beautiful. According to the manager of the Mariinsky emerald and beryllium mine, since 2018, the price of alexandrites and emeralds has increased by 25-30%. Colored diamonds are highly valued on the market – pink, blue, yellow. The price of precious stones varies due to a number of specific factors:

  • The weight of the stone in carats (the larger the stone, the higher the price, since large stones are very rare).
  • Color (the more saturated for colored stones and the more "pure" for colorless diamonds, the more expensive).
  • Purity, that is, the absence of foreign inclusions and internal damage to the crystal (there are so few perfectly clean stones that we can say they do not exist).
  • The quality of the cut.

In addition, the shape of the cut is important. The most expensive are round stones, because, on the one hand, it is the round cut that reveals the maximum play of light in the stone, and, on the other, the losses on waste with such a cut are maximum. There are special tables for determining the price of each stone depending on all the listed characteristics, so no matter how their market price changes over time, the percentage difference in the cost of two different stones will be preserved quite strictly.

Investments in watches of famous brands

A separate line in the list of investment jewelry is watches of famous brands. Buying and wearing such watches has become a special chic, especially now, when we learn the time mainly from smartphone screens. Some of these watches, bought by the owners 20 years ago for a couple of hundred dollars, are now sold for 3-4 thousand dollars and more expensive. Despite the acceleration of the rhythm of life and the development of incredible technologies, Swiss watches of an old brand with a manual winding are becoming more and more expensive. Their value is determined by the degree of exclusivity, since most were released in limited collections, as well as the level of brand name.

Investments in alcoholic beverages

Investments in alcoholic beverages also have their own circle of fans. Among all the variety of alcohol, only wines, cognacs and whiskey are investment. Moreover, wine as an investment took place quite a long time ago, and cognac is only becoming an investment drink. Interestingly, the graphs of the growth of the number of billionaires on the planet and the Liv-ex 100 Fine Wine index (the calculation uses 100 of the most popular investment-quality wines with high trade turnover and a high rating from the leading wine critic R. Parker) are highly correlated over time.

Numismatics and philately

A long-known area of investment is rare coins, banknotes, bonds, as well as stamps. Here, the price directly depends on the degree of limitation of the issue, that is, the rarity of similar securities and coins. Moreover, it is a paradox, but stamps can have a special "margin", and very high, for errors and flaws when printing them, because such an issue becomes exclusive. As for the coins, it is not necessary to look for them in ancient treasures. They can become a rarity and a great value already at the release. For example, in 2010, a limited edition of a 500-gram gold coin with a nominal value of $3,000 "The Royal Family" was produced. The issue was 23 coins, which immediately made them a huge rarity. Subsequently, one such coin went at auction for 1500 dollars.

Investment in art objects

Art objects are especially popular as investments. Many people have in their memory the stories of the rapidly enriched buyers of early Impressionist paintings, masters of the Russian avant-garde. Today there are many popular artists who exhibit at the opening day and receive laudatory reviews from critics. This market is rich and interesting. The mechanisms of cost formation for individual canvases are amazing. Some of the paintings became auction value or rose in price tens and hundreds of times in connection with the scandals that were associated with them. Such, for example, is the story of the "Davinciev" Mona Lisa: in 1911, it was stolen from the Louvre by a museum employee, and the painting could not be found for two years. The noise around the abduction was such that even the death of the Titanic in 1912 could not overshadow the theft of the century. Now it's hard to believe, but before the theft, the painting was known only to a narrow circle of art connoisseurs, and experts did not consider it a successful work of Leonardo. Now the whole world knows about the canvas with the portrait of the Mona Lisa.

Another element that forms the price of a work of art is its symbolism. For example, the painting by Eduard Manet "Breakfast on the grass", from which impressionism is believed to have begun, is not at all the best of the author's canvases, and it is difficult to recognize Kazimir Malevich's "Black Square" as evoking aesthetic feelings at all. But both of these canvases gave rise to new powerful trends in the visual arts, and therefore are now among the most expensive in this market. And this is, in fact, a lottery. Any of the modern paintings that have at least some artistic value, suddenly, at the whim of the public or chance, can become a fortune. Below is a painting by the contemporary artist Blinky Palermo "Untitled", sold at auction for $1.7 million.

Investing in antiques

Another non – standard option for placing money for profit is antiques. Antique pieces of furniture, rare books from the past centuries, dishes and vases - these things, which were touched by the hands of long-gone people, are also gradually but steadily becoming more expensive, arousing the interest of investors. And we are not necessarily talking about a chest of the Louis XIII era, or a vase of the Ming dynasty. Soviet porcelain figurines, for example, which each of our grandmothers had in the sideboard, or old toys in good condition are very popular today.

Other exotic investments

Similarly to things belonging to the "shadows of the past", the property of living stars is also a collectible and an investment, becoming more and more expensive from one auction to another. This is one of the most variable and sometimes curious investment items, nevertheless, it brings quite good profits. From dresses to swimming trunks of celebrities, and not only. What is the story about how a clever reporter slipped Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie not a microphone, but a jar, when the famous couple walked on the red carpet to the premiere of their film "Mr. and Mrs. Smith". This jar, where the stars breathed for a couple of seconds, was put up for auction, and sold for $530.

Features of alternative investments

The main features of alternative investments, from which subsequent risks arise:

  • The absence of any methodology for forecasting changes in their prices.
  • The lack of sufficiently regulated trading platforms.
  • High price threshold.

The first feature of such investments is the absence of any methodology for predicting changes in their price. Since there are many types of alternative investments, and new ones are emerging in the modern world, it is quite difficult to develop a system for choosing an "entry point", analyzing the prospects for value, and a scheme for generating income in this zone. Too many factors affect the value of investment objects, and many of these factors are just the ardent desire of specific people to possess these items due to their personal preferences or memories, as well as the availability of sufficient funds for these people to buy. Two factors that, perhaps, could be considered more or less systemic in this area:

  • The level of anxiety about standard investments when the stock and real estate market are adjusted;
  • Inflation, which leads to a stable rise in the price of almost any things that can be stored for a long time and do not go out of fashion.

These factors are often enough for investors to start considering an alternative investment as an investment, protective or with a growth prospect. But these factors are not enough to predict the behavior of prices for such things and items to make a profit on a short horizon.

Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their study

Another feature for most non-traditional investments is the lack of sufficiently regulated trading platforms. Precious stones are bought from cutting companies or bought from the previous owners at auctions. There is even a special exchange for wines (the London Wine Exchange), but it is not even a tenth as systematic and regulated as the stock exchange. Art objects are purchased at vernissages, and antiques – in antique shops and at "flea markets", the work of which is also difficult to regulate systematically. There is no market similar to the stock market, which would be determined by a specific set of laws and rules, had a specific structure and a set of participants with fixed powers and responsibilities, in the field of alternative investment. A separate topic is auction houses. In the world, the most famous are Sothbie's and Christi's. These are, of course, serious organizations with their own appraisers, an analysis of the authenticity of the exhibit, in which the process of buying and selling is regulated at a very high level. But still, even there, the level of protection of the buyer is not unconditional, and the guarantees at their high level are not perfect. There are a number of cases of fakes being sold through such respectable houses, scandals with the theft of valuables are known, and most often such expensive exhibits are accepted for sale, only a few thousand people on the whole planet can invest in them.

The third feature is a certain price threshold. If stocks and bonds, units in ETF funds can be purchased from the minimum amounts, and then buy more as personal savings increase, then neither a precious stone, nor a bottle of a collector's drink, nor a picture of a popular (not to mention masters) artist will be able to buy for 25 dollars. And since such investments are still carried out in order to diversify the portfolio, it is necessary to have some significant amount of money supply to start in them.

Read more: How to invest in stocks and what you need to know

Advantages and disadvantages of alternative investments

The main advantage of non-standard investment for a particular investor may be the coincidence of the pleasure of owning an exclusive item with the prospect of a solid income. In relation to ordinary objects of investment, there can be no such situation when the object of investment is regularly taken out of storage, lovingly viewed or presented to friends with pride. But this is mostly an emotional characteristic that does not reflect the advantages of alternative investments over conventional ones, namely as investments of money "for growth".

In this sense, the second advantage is the practical independence of prices for alternative investments from the state of the economies of individual countries and the world as a whole. Prices for such items increase from year to year and almost do not respond to economic shocks.

Another advantage is the objectivity of such investments, that is, a real physical embodiment. An investor buys a specific thing with a specific self-value. In the case of investments in the stock market, the investor has property rights, but they are immaterial, but only expressed by an electronic record in a trading terminal or in a depository. Therefore, people of a conservative disposition very often distrust investments in the stock market. Stocks, bonds or other market instruments are not a thing that can be "touched", hidden for storage in a safe place. Specifically for such investors, alternative investment options have a great advantage.

Among the disadvantages, it is worth noting the following:

  • The presence of non-traditional risks, protection from which requires additional, sometimes rather large expenses. For example, if a precious stone is not handled carefully enough, it can be scratched or even split, losing the state invested in it at once. You can also break a bottle of investment wine, or even a box. All the more accurate storage and handling require objects of art and antiquity. Any damage or suspicion of improper handling of the object affects its value negatively. This also includes the need to ensure microclimatic conditions. Both art and antique items and elite collectible alcohol require a certain temperature, humidity, low light level, etc.At the same time, safe systems are required to ensure safety and protect against theft. Some investment items require all these mechanisms for their storage and, consequently, considerable additional costs.
  • Low liquidity of such assets. The number of investors investing in exclusive items is significantly less than the number of people buying and selling securities or real estate. The search for a buyer for a specific object also takes a long time and is not easy, since the specifics of each object requires an almost individual approach: the picture may be attractive at a price, but the buyer would like a still life rather than a landscape; the stone being sold is interesting as an investment, but the buyer would like a stone of a different shape to set it in a ring. If you suddenly need to sell such objects quickly and at a decent price, you will have to go for a significant reduction.
  • The complexity of determining the price at a specific time. A very large influence on the formation of the price is the presence of a specific buyer with a sufficient desire to buy and a sufficient amount of funds to make it. In addition, the fashion at a particular time, the availability of alternatives may affect it. In particular, the prices of diamonds fell when a brilliant artificial analogue of moissanite appeared.
  • The complexity of assessing authenticity and the high risk of forgery. Objects, the sale of which can make a high profit, at all times attract scammers, and among them there are necessarily virtuosos. What is the story of the Dutch artist Van Meegeren, who in the period from 1939 to 1943 created thirteen forgeries of the great Jan Vermeer, which he later issued for the originals found again and sold for millions of guilders. It is even easier to pass off an artificial gemstone as a natural one. Even an experienced gemologist will not distinguish a fake from a natural stone without a special analysis in the laboratory.
  • A long period of investment. Most of the alternative investment objects are purchased taking into account special commissions, spreads, associated costs for evaluation, transportation and storage, insurance. At a minimum, in order to make a profit, it is necessary to wait for a period during which the price increase levels all these associated costs. Even more time is needed to get a tangible difference between the purchase price and the associated costs and the sale price. If we talk about market instruments, they can be characterized by specific investment terms – for example, bonds. For stocks, the investment horizon can be medium-term or long-term, but even on a 3-5 – year horizon, there will be an upward trend. But for non-traditional investment objects, the terms are often estimated for decades.
  • The need for high expert knowledge of the subject of investment. To acquire a truly valuable thing that has a good potential for value growth, an investor must either be well versed in the issue, nuances and details, or resort to the services of specialist consultants.

Conclusion

The number of investors in exclusive non-standard objects tends to grow from year to year. Among the supporters of "exotic" ways of investing are people of the old generation, who are interested in owning an object. Or wealthy people who purchase art canvases or antiques for interior decoration, thereby emphasizing their status, but understanding that the value of this property can play an important role in "emergency situations". The trend is also promoted by distrust of the stock market - victims of financial pyramids in the 90s or investors who have little and unsuccessful experience in the market (investments without knowledge, loss of capital, working in the market during the crisis).

The specifics of alternative investments are such that the diversification of the investment portfolio with their help requires significant investments. Before buying a real piece of art or a masterpiece of nature, which will bring a significant increase in the invested money in the future, the investor needs to stand quite firmly on his feet, that is, have a significant amount of funds. And the most important thing is to be prepared for the specific risks inherent in alternative investments. In order not to lose all your capital on an accidental risk or fraud, you need to have the skills to directly trade investment instruments, understand the principles of market pricing, be able to analyze risks and find mechanisms to protect against them.

If we talk about such an important parameter of any type of investment – risk-then alternative options for placing funds have a higher rating: fraudulent trading schemes, falsification, storage problems, search for a seller and a buyer, an opaque and unregulated cost estimation scheme.... you can list them endlessly. At the same time, if we talk about the classic types of investment in securities, the world stock market has existed for several centuries. There are already developed systems and methods of successful investment, which have been tested and confirmed by such world-famous people as R. Dalio or W. Buffett. These methods are not closed information available only to the Masonic community). In addition to well-established strategies for working on the stock market, professional services have been created to help investors, which simplify the work of choosing the best investment tools many times and hundreds of times. Almost a third of the world's population is involved in the trading process on the scale of the global stock market. The trading process itself (if it is an organized stock market!!!) is safe from the point of view of the confidentiality of information and the safety of funds. A modern investor can have a stake in an unlimited number of businesses and at the same time not be burdened with any need to store and record these property rights. All the rights of stock market participants are protected at the state level.

For amateurs and aesthetes, a combination of traditional and alternative investment methods can be a good compromise option. Traditional forms of investment can be a good source of formation of funds for the acquisition of values that you can be proud of during your lifetime and later leave as a legacy to your grandchildren. And such a general diversification of investment capital will allow maintaining the overall risk parameter at a comfortable level.

We talk about how to correctly form an investment portfolio and how to balance the shares in it according to individual components, which investment assets to give preference to in the current economic conditions – we talk about our open lessons on investing. You can sign up for another similar lesson by following the link.


 

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But it is difficult to judge how successful these measures will be. Sometimes it seems that they are more cosmetic. In addition, German society is now highly polarized. This is reflected in the current government coalition, which is known for its friction rather than successful actions. It is no coincidence that among developed countries, only Germany's index of economic policy uncertainty has grown significantly in the last couple of years," Kholodilin continues.In his opinion, the country needs more radical measures in five directions at once:Investment promotion,Digitalization,Significant reduction of bureaucracy,Improving education,The solution of the energy problem.For example, in the latter area there is confusion and staggering. In an effort to push through their program, the Greens are close to undermining the economy. They're breaking down an old house before they've built a new one.Reduction of social spendingAgainst the background of rising defense spending, the government wants to reduce social spending in the budget for 2024. For example, it is proposed to cancel child benefit for families whose total income exceeds 150 thousand euros per year. In Germany, which is famous for its Sozialstaat (welfare state), even such seemingly not too radical measures are perceived very painfully.Germany spends almost a third of GDP on social security — one of the highest levels among OECD countries. This is largely ensured by high taxes with a progressive rate, which grows in parallel with income. At the same time, this negatively affects the ambitions of the population to earn more — after all, wages will not increase much in real terms due to constantly increasing taxes. And many generally prefer generous benefits to everyday work.So still: Is Germany the "sick man of Europe" again or not?Germany got the nickname "the motor of Europe" for a reason: the economy of many European countries is closely connected with Germany, and in some cases depends on it altogether. Since the EU countries are highly interconnected — more than half of their trade takes place within the European Union, and Germany's share is large (almost a third in the Eurozone) — a recession in the country could hit the economies of other EU members."Are we the engine of Europe now? Of course not. And I don't believe that the situation will improve in the short term. But at some point it will happen - then growth will return to Europe. But now we are a burden on the European economy, this is quite clear," admits Professor Sudekum."We should not allow the importance of [the quality mark] Made in Germany to be downplayed," Bundesbank chief Joachim Nagel said in an interview with the Handelsblatt newspaper last week. "The German economic model is not outdated, but needs to be updated."Jens Sudekum agrees: we have not yet become the sick man of Europe. Rather, we are a bit like the old man of Europe, who is sitting too comfortably in a chair and who urgently needs to get up and do sports. If we do not do this, we will become Europe's sick again — but so far this is not the case.
Sep 13, 2023
IndexaCo
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There is a global shortage of copper. Who benefits from it?
There is a global shortage of copper. Who benefits from it? The world is moving toward green energy today, and copper is the clear "beneficiary" of this. Renewable energy sources (RES) - solar panels, wind turbines, electric cars, and chargers for them - are in dire need of this metal.For example: about 40 million electric cars are expected to be commissioned by the end of 2023. They need 2.5 times as much copper as cars with internal combustion engines. As a result, copper consumption in the world is growing. According to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), in 2022 it will grow by 3% to 26.048 million tons:China: +6%;Europe: +2%;USA and Japan: -2.5%.But last year's refined copper production only grew by 3.51% (25.672 million tons):Chile: -5.5%;EU: -4%;Congo: +18%;China: +5.7%.Total we have a supply deficit for last year of 0.376 million tons.What to expect next?ICSG estimates that in 2023 the global copper deficit will be smaller, about 0.114 million tons. By the end of 2024, it is even expected to be in surplus. The key driver is the growth of China's steel industry. However, production will not keep up with the growing demand, so there will be a shortage of metal starting from 2024. By 2031, the shortage will reach 6.5 million tons, according to participants of the World Copper Conference in Chile. And by 2035, S&P Global Market Intelligence expects a deficit of 10 million tons if there are no new mines. The reasons are the same: the increasing rate of hydrocarbon replacement with renewables.What could reduce the deficit?Innovation, new production methods, new mines, high capacity utilization, refining. But in the last 2 years only 2 new projects have been put into operation: in Peru and Congo.Who benefits from a shortage of copper?Freeport-McMoRan #FCX is an American copper and gold producer.Southern Copper Corporation #SCCO - U.S. mining company, complexes located in Peru and Mexico.  Jiangxi Copper Company #HK: 0358 largest copper producer in mainland China.Vale S. A. #VALE is a Brazilian company with operations in Brazil, and also operates in Canada, Mozambique, Indonesia, Malawi and Oman.Rio Tinto #RIO is an Australian-British concern, the world's third-largest multinational metals and mining company.NorNickel #GMKN is a Russian metals and mining company, the world's largest producer of nickel and palladium.
Jun 15, 2023
IndexaCo
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Changee: A Review of a Modern Cryptocurrency Exchange Service
Changee: A Review of a Modern Cryptocurrency Exchange Service Changee is a modern exchange service that provides users with the best exchange rates for their cryptocurrency transactions. The platform's new rate selection system ensures that users get the best possible rate for their exchanges. The service is user-friendly and completely transparent, making it a popular choice for cryptocurrency traders and investors.Services Offered by Changee.comChangee offers several services to its users, including:Best Exchange Rates: The platform offers users the best exchange rates based on the rates of the most reputable exchanges.Fast Transactions: Transactions on the platform typically take around 10 minutes to complete, ensuring that users can quickly exchange their cryptocurrencies.Wide Variety of Cryptocurrency Pairs: Changee adds new coins to its platform every month, ensuring that users have access to the latest cryptocurrencies.Security: The platform ensures that all funds received are from trusted liquidity providers, giving users peace of mind that their funds are safe.Unlimited Exchanges: Changee allows users to exchange their cryptocurrencies in any amount, making it an excellent choice for traders and investors of all levels.24/7 Support: The platform provides users with 24/7 support to address any concerns they may have.Low Fees: Changee charges a minimal fee of 0.25%, making it one of the most affordable cryptocurrency exchange platforms available.Supported Cryptocurrency PairsChangee supports a wide variety of cryptocurrency pairs, including BTC/ETH, BTC/USDT, ETH/USDT, USDT/SOL, BTC/XMR, ETH/XRP, and over 200 other pairs, which are continuously updated.Partner ProgramChangee's partner program allows users to earn money by inviting new users to the platform. For every exchange made by a new user that has been invited, the inviter will receive 50% of the platform's commission.Cashback SystemThe platform offers a cashback system that rewards users with higher cashback levels the more they exchange. Details about the cashback levels are available on the platform's website under the "Cashback" section.The Goal of ChangeeChangee aims to show users from around the world how they can exchange their cryptocurrencies quickly, anonymously, and profitably. The platform's goal is to create a community of users who value their time and money. Users are encouraged to provide feedback and leave reviews of the service, which will help to improve the platform further.Contacting ChangeeUsers can contact Changee through email at support@changee.com. For more information about Changee's services, users can visit the platform's website at changee.com.In conclusion, Changee is a modern cryptocurrency exchange platform that provides users with a wide variety of cryptocurrencies to exchange and offers the best exchange rates, low fees, and 24/7 support. The platform's cashback system and partner program make it an attractive option for traders and investors looking to earn money. With its commitment to transparency and user satisfaction, Changee is an excellent choice for anyone looking to exchange their cryptocurrencies quickly and securely.
May 17, 2023
IndexaCo
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Credit Suisse - will the Lehman Brothers story repeat itself?
Deutsche Bank, stock, UBS Group, stock, Credit Suisse - will the Lehman Brothers story repeat itself? "History repeats itself" is a well-known expression, which is based on the hypothesis that the development of society is a cycle of certain events and phenomena, and that history, like economics, is characterized by cyclicity. Considering that history does not only record the heyday of empires, and that the cycle of the economy always goes through crises, it becomes uncomfortable when the symptoms of past economic recessions begin to manifest themselves in modern times.The year 2022, a critical situation for Credit Suisse, one of the largest banks in the world and the second largest bank in Switzerland. All analysts agree that if it goes bankrupt, the consequences will be similar to those of the bankruptcy of US Lehman Brothers in September 2008. The global financial crisis of 2008 was one of the most serious financial and economic crises since the Great Depression, the consequences of which are still continuing in some countries.Credit Suisse in the global banking systemCredit Suisse is the second largest bank in Switzerland, a systemically important bank in the global financial system, the main dealer and currency counterparty to the U.S. Federal Reserve System, a leader in the global market of structured products.The stability of the entire banking system depends on banks like Credit Suisse. Their bankruptcy could have dire consequences for the entire financial system. Everyone remembers the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the bank filed for bankruptcy on September 15, 2008, after rejecting the bailout. Many consider it the beginning of the global financial crisis of 2008.Credit Suisse problemsThere is now a growing murmur in the news background about problems at Credit Suisse. Credit Suisse has been involved in a large number of scandals in recent years. Last year, the bank suffered billions of dollars in losses with the bankruptcies of major clients Greensill Capital, a financial company, and Archegos Capital Management, a hedge fund. Both of these failures were accompanied by allegaticredons of misconduct and potential fraud.Now the U.S. Department of Justice has taken up a new investigation: the bank is suspected of violating the law again. Former bankers have filed a compromise against the company that says it is once again helping customers evade taxes.Credit Suisse Group AG CEO Ulrich Körner said the bank is at a "critical juncture" as it prepares to restructure. The memo was sent out to staff after the company's CDS jumped to all-time highs and the stock price hit all-time lows.What could be the consequences of Credit Suisse's bankruptcyGiven Credit Suisse's role in the global banking system, realizing the risk of its bankruptcy would have global consequences:Shares and structured products issued by Credit Suisse would lose all their value. The bank is the largest player in the structured products market, which would cause the entire structured products market to implode.The chain reaction and collapse of such banks as Deutsche Bank, Credite Agricole, Unicredit, Barclays, Bank of China, Societe Generale and Standard Chartered and many intermediaries.The crisis of the global financial system and the collapse comparable to 2008.The return of many central banks to stimulating the economy through the printing press.The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers was unexpected and shocked the financial system. The problems of Credit Suisse have been known for a long time, and there is a high probability that the Swiss government will help the bank in case the situation worsens. But there is a question of the size of this help.This year the ratio of tier 1 capital adequacy of Credit Suisse will make 13-14%, which is considered high for large financial companies and exceeds the regulatory norms. But Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates that if the bank doesn't address its problems, it could face an $8 billion capital shortfall in 2024.Now, to reassure investors, the bank said it intends to buy eight issues of euro- and sterling-denominated bonds totaling up to $1 billion. It is also prepared to buy twelve issues of U.S. dollar-denominated securities totaling up to $2 billion.On October 27, 2022, the bank plans to present a detailed plan for its reorganization along with its quarterly results.ConclusionThroughout its history, mankind has gone through numerous crises. Each crisis is unique in its cause, depth and duration. But what all crises have in common is that they end. A recession is always followed by recovery and growth.What does an investor need to know and what should he prepare for? Crises are always accompanied by a decline in the stock markets. That is why it is important for an investor to take care of maximum protection of his capital. First of all, you need to maximize the share of protective assets in your investment portfolio.
Oct 18, 2022
IndexaCo
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U.S. vs OPEC+: who will win the oil race
Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, U.S. vs OPEC+: who will win the oil race OPEC+ is markedly reducing oil production - in fact, the exporting countries will pump about 1 million barrels less per day. We have written earlier on why this is so.As a result, supply at the market has become lower, so prices have gone up and are approaching $100 per barrel again.What will the U.S. do after the OPEC+ statement?The coming energy crisis and the high inflation it causes are scaring the whole world, but it's the States that are worried the most right now:expensive oil means expensive fuel;it's causing prices of almost all commodities to rise;inflation is going up - the Fed keeps tightening policy;high key interest rates are pushing the U.S. closer to recession;in addition, high fuel prices can cause social discontent.To prevent this, the U.S. is trying to influence the largest oil producers and keep prices down. Otherwise, the Democrats will most likely not win the congressional elections. They are due in a month.The U.S. started to prepare in advance: President Biden flew to Saudi Arabia this summer and persuaded the U.S. to bring down oil prices. But it did not work out very well: OPEC acts in its own way and does not want to listen to Americans. As a result, the failed negotiations with the Saudis have further diminished the credibility of Biden and the Democrats' ability to influence oil, inflation and economic stability in the United States.However, the Biden administration is not giving up; they have a few more options - rather radical ones - on how to lower oil prices.Additional Oil ReleaseThe safest, though least effective, option is to further draw oil from strategic U.S. storage facilities. In response to OPEC+'s decision to cut production, Biden announced that the U.S. would release 10 million barrels of oil, even as storage reserves are depleted.That would be all well and good, but the announcement had little or no effect on oil prices, especially compared to the previous similar decision to release 180 million barrels to the market. No wonder: the volumes are not comparable.In addition, since U.S. storage reserves are running out, there is a risk that they will not be enough for a rainy day: in case of sharp reductions in domestic production (for example, during hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico) or imports (if OPEC+ countries reduce exports).Reducing military aid to the ArabsDemocrats have drafted a "Tense Partnership" bill in response to OPEC+ and specifically the alliance's leaders, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. They are accused of "a hostile act against the United States" and "siding with Russia in the conflict with Ukraine."As revenge, the U.S. could withdraw its troops from these countries and stop supplying weapons and other military aid to fight neighboring states and terrorists. This includes protecting oil infrastructure from attack.This option also has disadvantages: without U.S. military support in these countries, there could be problems that would inevitably affect the global oil supply. After all, if military actions or terrorist attacks affect the oil fields or storage facilities of Saudi Aramco, oil will cost even more, and such attacks occur quite often.So even if the Saudis and the UAE will not reduce exports in response to the withdrawal of troops and reduction of arms supply, there is a good chance that sooner or later the fighting will make prices go up.In addition, Saudi Arabia has already planned to prepare for a possible conflict with the United States. For example, in the spring the Saudis said they were going to explore ways to move away from the petrodollar - that is, not to use bucks in the black gold trade. In this case, the demand for the dollar could fall dramatically, especially if other oil-exporting countries do the same.NOPEC: Conflict with OPEC+Amid disagreements with OPEC, the U.S. may return to the "oil production and export cartel law," NOPEC, to have more leverage on oil exporters.In this case, U.S. courts will be able to consider antitrust suits against OPEC+ and in general against countries involved in cartel collusion in the oil market. Under the decision of their own courts, the U.S. will be able to impose sanctions, confiscate property of these countries and put pressure on them in other ways. At the same time, the U.S. itself will indicate what is legal and what is not, thus assessing any actions of the countries that regulate oil production and prices.This option also has a disadvantage: sanctions on exporters would also hit the U.S. itself. If oil prices become lower, the U.S. oil industry will also be hard hit: domestic production will decrease and it will have to import more. And since the market is competitive, and the U.S. in this case will be "enemies of OPEC +", they will have to buy oil more expensive.So, even if the U.S. takes a drastic step - provoking a conflict with Saudi Arabia or the UAE, or starting a sanctions war with OPEC+ - all this will have a negative impact on themselves.Can't sanctions be lifted on Venezuela?As we can see, the U.S. has almost no normal options left to influence the oil market. Nevertheless, the U.S. says it is not going to remove sanctions from Venezuela yet, despite the fact that this would help get more oil on the market and lower oil prices. We may see some new rhetoric in this regard, but no change for now.The Iran deal has also been stalled so far: there is no news or movement on it. Although it is possible that disagreements with the Saudis may attract the U.S. to support Iran, because these are the two sides of the Arab conflict.On the one hand, Iranian oil would help to increase supply, but there is a nuance here as well: the reserves in this country are not grandiose, moreover, most of the oil is already exported in circumvention of sanctions.So what to do with Brent and WTI crude oil prices in 2022?If we discard all of the above options, then all we have to do is sit back and watch oil go up in price. The outlook is also bad: even if the world starts a recession and the demand for oil decreases, OPEC+ is already reducing production and adjusting to negative expectations, and also the supply from Russia may decrease if the embargo comes into force.And if that's the case, U.S. inflation will be high. And given the strong labor market, the Fed may raise the rate even more than 1.25% by the end of the year, and it is not certain that it will slow down next year as well. If rates remain high for a long time, the risk of recession in the U.S. is very high, and stocks and cryptocurrencies will have no fuel for growth. As a result, the economy will have a hard time: liquidity is scarce.If the U.S. starts to act sharply, the dollar is at risk: the "oil" countries can give it up to reduce dependence on the United States. But if the U.S. does nothing, tightening Fed policy will keep the dollar very strong - though at the cost of high inflation and recession. If you are interested in WTI analytics, we recommend you to visit the analytics page, where you can find the latest analytics on Forex from top traders from all over the world. These analytics will be useful both for beginners and professional traders. The Forex signals service makes it much easier for beginners to make their first steps in trading on the financial markets. The latest WTI forecasts and signals contain support and resistance levels, as well as stop-loss levels.
Oct 11, 2022
IndexaCo
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Investing in meta-universes: 4 ideas
Microsoft, stock, Meta Platforms, stock, Roblox, stock, Investing in meta-universes: 4 ideas Apple CEO Tim Cook said that the word "meta-universe" is still misunderstood by the vast majority of people in the world. That's why Apple is trying to avoid the term. The company has mentioned it once. But Meta (recognized as an extremist organization) has used the word "meta-universe" 36 times in its reports this year.And before, Apple was not afraid to set trends and create demand where there was none. Apparently, Meta, which is not afraid to use new words, will now be in charge. Moreover, metaworld is not just an abstract term, but quite specific tasks and solutions (VR-helmets, 3D-graphics, software and so on), on which many companies work.Roblox Metawell (NYSE: RBLX)This is a publicly traded company whose meta-villain is already built and popular today, while others have it only as plans for the future. A share of the company is worth $38 -- nearly five times cheaper than it was at the peak of market hype (November 2021). Last year we underestimated the enthusiasm of the market by half - the price soared to $141. Accordingly, this value over a 3-5 year horizon reflects the potential value of the stock. Analysts emphasize the opportunity offered to users: they can build their own games and applications with the help of an internal constructor. Anyone can work with the platform thanks to a simple interface and flexible functionality.Investing in meta-universes through Unity Software (NYSE: U)Developer of a 3D video game engine. The company's stock is now worth $36.6 - six times cheaper than its peak value (also reached in November 2021), and even cheaper than the low end of its IPO range ($44). At the same time, the company's revenues are twice as high as the 2019 IPO it reported.Microsoft Metasites (NASDAQ: MSFT)Last year generated $198 billion in revenue and $72 billion in profit. With a capitalization of $1.8 trillion, it is the largest and most resilient maker of software, hardware game software and games. As this company's history shows, if it doesn't manage to become a leading player in its target market right away, it still takes a significant share of it over time.Investing in Meta (NASDAQ: META)Zuckerberg is serious and plans to create his own meta universe using all available resources. He's got the makings for it: 3 billion monthly active social media users, ownership of Oculus, the company that makes VR helmets, and enough cash flow to service it all. But so far, the reality lab division (those meta universes) has spent $10 billion on revenues of only $2.3 billion.
Oct 09, 2022
IndexaCo
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"Reliable Swiss" all in holes: waiting for Credit Suisse bankruptcy?
\ Credit Suisse and Lehman Brothers: will the Swiss bank repeat the story of 2008?Swiss bank Credit Suisse is in trouble: its bonds have plummeted to a record low. In addition, the CDS value of these bonds has skyrocketed. This is a kind of "insurance" against default of the issuer, and the greater the market fears about such an outcome, the higher the value of CDS.Why such pessimism about Credit Suisse?A string of failures and scandals surrounding Credit Suisse have led to it:last year, billion-dollar losses were caused by the bank's major clients - financial services firm Greensill Capital and hedge fund Archegos Capital Management;the bank ended the first half of the year with a loss of $1.7 mln, the reasons being an alleged Russian special operation, rising inflation and a tightening of the central bank's monetary policy;in February of this year, a journalistic investigation, "Secrets of Credit Suisse", was released about "immoral clients of the bank";a Swiss court found Credit Suisse guilty of laundering money from Bulgarian drug traffickers;it is also suspected of having links to Russian oligarchs and violating sanctions: it is reported that Credit Suisse asked hedge funds and other investors to destroy documents concerning loans to sanctioned individuals.  These are not all the scandals in which Credit Suisse has been involved over the last 2 years. The bank is not used to scandals. It ruined its reputation long time ago - in the late 90s Credit Suisse and other Swiss banks were accused of having links to Nazi Germany and embezzling deposits of Holocaust victims.Read more about the Swiss bank's "dirty dealings" in an article by The Guardian or in our article.Will Credit Suisse not make it this time?They have already started comparing it to Lehman Brothers which went bankrupt in 2008 and triggered the world crisis. Indeed, Credit Suisse is also very big, the second largest bank in Switzerland and one of the largest investment banks in the world. The consequences of its collapse cannot be predicted in advance - too many financial chains are tied to it.However, after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the authorities all over the world came to the concept of too big to fail. Its essence is in the point that it is easier to save such a bank than pull the whole financial system out. Logically, if Credit Suisse is included in the list of systemically important banks of the world, it means that they will not let it go bankrupt. But this is not certain.However, the bank itself is already trying to improve the situation. To avoid bankruptcy filing, on October 27 Credit Suisse will present the report for the third quarter and the plan for business reorganization.It also plans to sell part of its assets. The most radical option is to get rid of the American division. Also among the options to get out of the situation is splitting the investment business into three parts, with a "bad assets bank" being spun off. Cutting 5,000 employees is also being discussed.  Will downsizing and splitting up the business help?Probably, but the problem is fundamental. After all, Credit Suisse is a universal bank. In addition to traditional commercial banking, it is engaged in investment activities (asset management operations, mergers and acquisitions, securities and derivatives trading). By the way, it was the investment division that led to the problems.What prompted "Reliable Swiss" to change its risk profile? First of all, regulatory permissiveness, a period of record-low interest rates and the policy of quantitative easing. After all, in a low-interest-rate economy, it's hard to make money on classic banking - hence the desire to lend to risky hedge funds and dubious investment companies. That's exactly what you can make more money on - especially when the bubble inflates.Is Credit Suisse the first swallow?Credit Suisse's problems are bad, but even worse is that it may not have been the only one to follow such a strategy. Now that all the bubbles in the world are deflating, other banks may also announce problems. For example, there are already rumors about problems in CSFB and Deutsche Bank. The most acute situation is with the fall of the bond market, because until recently they were considered a reliable tool and were often used as collateral for many loans.In fact, the problem of separation of commercial and investment banks is as old as the world. But it seems that mankind keeps stepping on the same rake.
Oct 05, 2022
IndexaCo
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Sex and Forex: what do they have in common?
Sex and Forex: what do they have in common? In another interpretation, it is also called lovers' day. But, in the end, what difference does it make, the root is one - love! And love, as the poet said, all Forex is submissive! Did the poet say something wrong? Well, it's just that there was no forex back then, he would have corrected himself…Have you ever wondered what there might be in common between FOREX and SEX (except ending, of course)? It is worth imagining a little and you can draw an analogy to almost any concept or action on forex and find an association!  There are no minors here, so I suggest in honor of the thematic holiday to have a little fun and spend a sexy ten-minute. We will not use Viagra, since all of us here are full of energy, enthusiasm and ready for sexual and trading exploits. Well, who is not ready, and Viagra will not help much…Virtual sex trade on demo. In virtual sex, you can imagine yourself (and introduce yourself online) as anyone. Even Brad Pitt, even Antonio Banderas, and even Britney Spears. You will flirt, seduce, imagine how cool you are. And the real result at the output is zero point zero! And so you decided to return to reality and set up a live date with your chosen one. And then a bummer! Instead of a long-legged beauty, a hairy, sweaty man comes to you on a date. And his name is disgusting - Margin Call!Market analysis is a prelude. Good preparation (foreplay) is the key to good sex! You will not wait until the partner is in the right condition at the beginning, it will be difficult to bring him to the desired result in the end! The main thing in this case is not to rush! Do not proceed to the main part of the Marlaison ballet if your partner has not yet matured. Watch him, try to understand his mood, feel when he is ready for action. And only after that – full speed ahead!Love is the key to great sex and a cure for frigidity and impotence! Without love, sex is bland, boring and uninteresting. And with her, he looks like an atomic bomb explosion! Do you like the market? If not, then don't expect reciprocity. You have to love the market. And only then will he respond to your courtship.If you have spontaneous sex, it's trading on the news. Look-spark-discharge! An irresistible desire to do IT here and now. You want her, she wants you. Feelings are strained to the limit, a shiver runs through your bodies, unable to restrain yourself any longer, you grab her in your arms and enter ... into a deal. And then... then, how lucky! Either you thank me for the incomparable impressions, or you curse yourself for what the world is worth, and you think – why did I fall for her at all?? But you have time to grab your portion of adrenaline in any case!There is no need to be afraid of sex for money – trading on signals. It's great - you don't have to do anything special! Professionals will do everything for you. Well, really, it's if good professionals. Sit (lie down) – get high! Well, what remains if someone does not work out for love? At least once, but it's worth a try, for comparison. However, the question arises, who uses whom – you or you? Therefore, it is better still for love! A thousand times more colors and impressions.So. Well, what do you say to getting a stop – a sexual fiasco? I tried, I did everything right, but it didn't work out at all!  At the most inopportune and crucial moment, this unpredictable creature says – "And the ceiling is not painted!" And turns in the other direction… There remains a feeling of resentment and dissatisfaction. I really want to play everything back and try again. But time has passed and the train is already far away…The initiative to change the pose is usually welcome. Especially if nothing works out in the usual one. Pose is a fundamental concept in Kama Sutra and forex! Each of us, of course, at least once in his life looked at the positions of the Kama Sutra (who did not do it – it's never too late to start sexual experiments). However, some poses (especially beginners) need to be looked upside down in order to understand what kind of intricacy of arms and legs there is, and to catch at least some sense in such tricks! You need to have good flexibility and a rich imagination to execute some particularly bold positions. A natural question arises: is it worth it? You can get out and pervert yourself as you like, but it does not always bring the expected pleasure. Exotic poses can numb your arms and legs, and you won't get a profit! Very rarely aggressive attempts like "lock", "stop-flip" and "averaging" help to achieve trading ecstasy!And, of course, tune in to get a profit! Profit is akin to orgasm. You've fallen in love, they don't seem to be chasing you either. There came a moment X when you decided it was time to do IT. You showed patience and endurance, studied the habits and characteristics of the object of lust – and the foreplay was a bang! And if in the main part of the process you were able to feel each other, be attentive to the little things, take your time, then a mutual orgasm will not take long to wait! My deepest conviction is that there are no cold women, as well as bad markets. There are bad lovers.  And illiterate traders.Contraception is the most important thing in sex. And in forex. Protect yourself, protect yourself and protect yourself again! Not sure about choosing the right partner? Don't know what to expect from him? Stay out of the market on the fence. And if you decide to get involved - be sure to follow the rules of money management! We are for safe sex!Adventures in sex and forex do not lead to anything good. Promiscuous sex life did not bring anyone to good. Casual sex, as well as a casual transaction – if without consequences, then there will be something to remember with a smile in old age. And if with the consequences, you will have to be treated for a long time, and it is very likely that you will not restore the deposit. It depends on what you get sick with…
Jul 19, 2022
IndexaCo
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