EUR/USD: the exchange rate tends to break out of the downward range of 1.0880–1.0560
During the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, remaining near the level of 1.0850. Neutral macroeconomic data do not allow the euro to significantly strengthen its position.
In April, the producer price index in Germany increased by 0.2%, as in the previous month, which was lower than the projected growth of 0.3%. This led to a decrease in the annual rate from -2.9% to -3.3%, against expectations of -3.2%. Such negative dynamics contribute to a further slowdown in consumer inflation, providing the European Central Bank (ECB) with an additional argument for lowering interest rates at the June meeting. The EU data also show diverse results: in March, the volume of construction decreased from 0.38% to 0.10%, while the labor cost index increased from 3.40% to 4.90% in the first quarter. The EU's trade balance increased from 22.8 billion euros to 24.1 billion euros in March.
- Resistance levels: 1.0885, 1.1010.
- Support levels: 1.0820, 1.0705.
GBP/USD: annual UK inflation slowed to 2.3% in April
The GBP/USD pair is showing an upward trend, updating local highs since March 21. Investors are closely watching the UK's April inflation statistics. The consumer price index decreased from 3.2% to 2.3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 2.1%, and from 0.6% to 0.3% month-on-month, which also exceeded the forecast of 0.2%. The producer price index, excluding seasonal fluctuations, increased from 0.7% to 1.1%, which is slightly lower than the projected 1.2%. These data may encourage the Bank of England to begin easing monetary policy this summer, as previously mentioned by Ben Broadbent, deputy governor of the regulator, and Hugh Pill, chief economist.
Yesterday, investors analyzed the May index of industrial orders from the Confederation of British Industrialists (CBI), which fell from -23.0 to -33.0 points, against expectations of -20.0 points. This was the fastest decline since November, but many manufacturers expect the situation to improve in the summer months, while not predicting a significant price increase. In the near future, the minutes of the next hearing of the inflation report will be published in the UK, which will help to understand the reaction of officials to the latest price data and clarify the prospects for a possible interest rate cut in the coming months. With the opening of the American session, investors' attention will switch to April statistics on sales in the secondary housing market in the United States, where growth is expected from 4.19 million to 4.21 million after a previous decrease of 4.3%.
- Resistance levels: 1.2734, 1.2771, 1.2810, 1.2850.
- Support levels: 1.2700, 1.2650, 1.2600, 1.2568.
NZD/USD: New Zealand currency shows growth again
The NZD/USD pair is showing active growth, recovering from the "bearish" sentiment prevailing at the beginning of this week: the instrument is testing the level of 0.6125 for an upward breakdown, which is facilitated by the results of the meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).
As expected, the regulator kept the interest rate at 5.50% and positively assessed the effect of the measures already taken to combat high inflation. RBNZ representatives expressed confidence that the current restrictive policy will reduce inflation to the target range of 1.0–3.0% by the end of 2024. The accompanying statement noted that the slowdown in prices in the service sector is slower than expected, so the transition to "dovish" rhetoric is not advisable yet. The pressure on the labor market is gradually easing, which leads to an increase in unemployment and lower wages, which also helps to reduce inflationary risks.
Despite the market reaction to the RBNZ meeting, many investors are in a hurry to take profits, closing some long positions, preferring to wait for today's publication of the minutes of the May meeting of the US Federal Reserve. These documents may clarify the prospects for an interest rate cut by the US regulator in the second half of 2024. The current main scenario assumes the beginning of monetary policy easing in September or November, and at least two reductions of 25 basis points each are expected by the end of 2024.
- Resistance levels: 0.6130, 0.6152, 0.6183, 0.6200.
- Support levels: 0.6100, 0.6082, 0.6047, 0.6030.
Gold market overview
The price of gold has been steadily growing for the fourth month in a row: on Monday, quotes updated annual highs around 2449.89, but then rolled back, and the current positive dynamics is restrained by comments from US Federal Reserve officials.
Investors had hoped that the publication of April inflation data in the United States would prompt the regulator to start lowering interest rates in September, but recent statements by Fed representatives disappointed the market. Economists recognized the decrease in inflationary pressure as a positive factor, but noted that the April data was not enough to correct monetary policy. The chairman of the US Federal Reserve for Supervision, Michael Barra, stressed that the data at the beginning of the year were "disappointing", so there are no grounds for lowering interest rates yet. In the evening, investors are waiting for the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee, which may shed light on the prospects for further actions by the regulator and cause serious fluctuations in the market.
- Resistance levels: 2437.50, 2500.00, 2562.50.
- Support levels: 2348.00, 2250.00, 2187.50.