Forecasts and signals from trader Positive
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, oil and cryptocurrencies
EUR/USD: the asset continues to collapseAccording to the data, the euro keeps the dynamics of a sharp decline against global competitors, due to recorded cases of failure in the supply chain of Russian gas. The instrument is held at 1.0397.According to Gazprom's statement, the volume of supplies of "blue fuel" to EU countries through the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline is completely blocked due to partial passage through Poland, having approved serious restrictions the day before in view of the negative response of the country's authorities to pay for the supply of resources in rubles. According to experts, the result of the termination of supplies has already been a shortage of gas received by the eurozone countries of about 25%, going through Poland and Ukraine. Such a tense situation has become a reason for non-public statements about the likely "resurrection" of the SP-2 pipeline, in which case all attempts by European countries to damage the Russian economy will be leveled, which no one will be able to allow. At the same time, the cost of gas in the markets has already reached 1,236 thousand dollars, leaving the euro under pressure.Resistance levels: 1.0623, 1.1163.Support levels: 1.0330, 1.0100.AUD/USD: "Aussie" is trying to move to growthThe Australian currency is in the zone of active corrective growth against the US dollar during Asian trading, having completed the "episode" of a strong drawdown of positions, reaching record lows in June 2020.Market participants decide only on short-term transactions, which is why there is a factor of technical adjustment, but the fundamental trends in the AUD/USD pair change sluggishly. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar continues to be under pressure due to uncertain macroeconomic statistics published in Australia. According to the data, the level of sales of residential real estate in the primary market from HIA decreased by 1.2% in April terms, showing an increase of 3.9% a month earlier. According to a joint study, which was attended by representatives of the ANZ financial group and analysts at CoreLogic, it was noted that buying their own homes for citizens is beginning to become less affordable. Recall that to buy your own housing, the deposit rate should be about 20%, which corresponds to the quantitative expression of 147,795 thousand dollars, which will be possible to accumulate in 11.4 years for urban areas and up to 10.5 years for rural areas, respectively.Resistance levels: 0.6900, 0.6950, 0.7000, 0.7050.Support levels: 0.6827, 0.6750, 0.6700, 0.6650.Cryptocurrency market overviewAccording to data from trading platforms, the value of BTC reached the mark of 31000.00, falling by 10.6% in price, ETH is testing the level of 2100.00, having lost 20.8% of the value, BNB fell to 305.00, whose losses amounted to 15.4% of the price. The total capitalization figure was $ 1.314 trillion, in which BTC increased its share to the level of 44.46%.During the whole week, the cryptocurrency market was trading under strong pressure due to the hard course taken by the US regulator as part of the fight against inflation. So, a series of published reports on inflation, gave confirmation of experts who expected its strong growth. According to the data, consumer prices reached the level of 8.3%, while production prices – 11.0%, reaching forty-year highs. Market participants hope that the US Federal Reserve will undertake a more drastic tightening of monetary parameters, as well as the growing risks of recession in the United States economy, which will lead to an increase in dollar demand, to the detriment of alternative assets. The negative background was supported by the news about the fall of the UST steibkin token (TerraUSD) and Luna assets, which lost 81% and 99% in value in a few days, respectively. Economists explain the situation of negative dynamics as a consequence of the panic on the trading floors. After all, since the UST stablecoin began to lose positions, leaving the bundle with the US dollar, market participants immediately switched to short positions on the instrument, thereby finally collapsing the exchange rate.Oil market overviewThe cost of WTI grade raw materials moves in flat dynamics two months in a row, developing a wide lateral range within 111.00-95.00, waiting for new signals that can change the trend.Experts name two key factors, because of which the oil market remains in uncertainty all this time. The instrument receives positive signals against the background of discussions on a possible ban on oil supplies from Russia to the eurozone. Working groups are continuing consultations on this issue, and the strong dependence of individual European states on Russia's energy resources is an obstacle. The successful growth is counterbalanced by the Covid-19 pandemic in China, the world's largest economy consuming export oil. In case of epidemiological deterioration of the situation, the level of demand can be severely undermined.Resistance levels: 112.50, 118.75, 125.00.Support levels: 100.00, 93.75, 87.50.
The current downturn in the crypto market is not yet a reason for irrational pessimism
After a tough sell-off in the cryptocurrency markets, provoked by the macroeconomic environment and internal problems of stable coins, the main cryptocurrencies are showing recovery today.The predictions of some experts about the fall of the leading crypto currency, Bitcoin, below the level of 25 thousand dollars, did not come true.Large Bitcoin whales, buying up cryptocurrency on the fall, pushed the price above the psychological support of 30 thousand dollars. And although there is extreme fear in the crypto market (10/100), the daily price increase of 8 percent has already restored a significant part of the 7-day drop of almost 30 percent.Ethereum (ETH) is also trading above $2,000 today. However, before a full week of recovery, you will have to make at least two jerks.Popular altcoins from the top ten cryptocurrencies, such as Cardano (ADA), Solana (SOL), Avalanche (AVAX) and Shiba Inu (SHIB), showed impressive daily growth in the range of 20-30 percent.At the same time, TerraUSD (UST), which was recently considered a promising stablecoin, was suspended from trading after a catastrophic collapse on many exchanges. The validators of the network suspended the issue of tokens until the UST stablecoin balance and its provision are restored.The cost of Tether (USDT) has almost reached one dollar ($0.9988 according to CoinMarketCap).The CEO of the Coinbase crypto exchange, Brian Amstrong, in the company's recent profit and loss report for the first quarter of this year, expressed an optimistic assumption that in the next twenty years the crypto economy will grow to about 15 percent of the global gross domestic product (GDP).Amstrong believes that just as most companies use the Internet now, so in twenty years they will use cryptocurrency and blockchain.Coinbase CEO believes that "in young markets, people are irrationally violent. And then in falling markets, people are irrationally pessimistic..."
Gold - Maximum price since the Beginning of the Month
The results of the meeting of the US regulator were perceived as insufficiently tough. The median forecast of the FOMC members on the interest rate at the end of 2023 did not change and remained at 0.1% — this was the key fact. At the same time, the markets highly estimate the probability of a rate increase to a higher value. And the Fed also reiterated the need to maintain the current rate until the labor market reaches maximum employment, and inflation does not rise to 2% and will last here for some time. It was expected that the regulator's rhetoric would change somewhat in the direction of a faster increase.At a press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted the uneven, far from complete, economic recovery. At the same time, economic estimates were revised up significantly. The regulator forecasts US GDP growth of 6.5% in 2021, up from 4.2% previously. The average long-term forecast remained unchanged at 1.8%. Powell also noted expectations of stronger inflation, although at the moment consumer price growth remains below target. As a result of the Fed meeting, the dollar rate fell sharply against all assets, including precious metals.