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Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY and NZD/USD for Thursday, November 30
EUR/USD: data show a decrease in the inflation rate in the European UnionThe euro is showing ambiguous behavior in the market, hovering around the level of 1.0970 and striving to recover from the recent corrective decline, thanks to which the EUR/USD pair reached August highs.Yesterday, market participants analyzed the latest data on inflation in the key economies of the eurozone. In Spain, the November consumer price index fell by 0.4%, which led to a decrease in the annual rate from 3.5% to 3.2%. In Germany, annual inflation slowed from 3.8% to 3.2%, while forecasts assumed 3.5%, and the monthly indicator decreased from 0.0% to -0.4%. The harmonized consumer price index in Germany was 2.3%, approaching the ECB's target of 2.0%. Similar reports from France and Italy are expected today, as well as the overall consumer price index in the EU, which, according to forecasts, may fall to 2.7% from 2.9%. On Thursday, investors' attention will be focused on the speeches of representatives of the ECB and the Bundesbank, Christine Lagarde and Joachim Nagel. It is expected that their comments, against the background of confirmation of the continued decline in inflation, will tend to "dovish" rhetoric and strengthen the market's beliefs that the central bank is also close to the end of the cycle of raising interest rates.Support levels: 1.0938, 1.0830.Resistance levels: 1.0990, 1.1095.AUD/USD: the Australian real estate sector shows a noticeable recoveryIn the morning trading, the AUD/USD currency pair is trading steadily around the level of 0.6642, while the Australian dollar is actively resuming its positions thanks to favorable macroeconomic statistics and the correction of the US dollar.In October, an increase in the number of building permits in Australia was recorded by 7.5%, recovering from a decrease of 4.0% in the previous month and returning this indicator to a positive area for the first time in a year (now the indicator is 1.8%). For private homes, this figure increased by 2.2%, against the background of a decrease of -4.6% in September. There was also an increase in investment in the construction sector by 0.7% in the third quarter, despite a more significant increase of 4.4% earlier. These data indicate a stable interest in private real estate and the recovery of the purchasing power of the population, which is an indicator of the improvement of the national economy.Support levels: 0.6600, 0.6500.Resistance levels: 0.6677, 0.6800.USD/JPY: "bears" are preparing to push the pair below the level of 147.00The US dollar is showing an unstable decline in a pair with the Japanese yen, testing the possibility of a breakout of the 147.00 level during the Asian session. The pair has been reaching new lows since September 12, but the bears' progress is limited.On the other hand, Japanese economic data was diverse. The industrial production report showed a 1.0% month-on-month drop, contrary to the previous 0.5% increase and an expected increase to 0.8%. The annual rate reached 0.9% after the previous drop of 4.4%. Retail sales decreased from 6.2% to 4.2% year-on-year, which was significantly lower than the expected 5.9%, and the monthly figure fell by 1.6% after -0.1% in September. At the same time, the consumer confidence index in Japan improved from 35.7 to 36.1 points in November, ahead of forecasts of 35.6 points.Resistance levels: 147.36, 148.00, 148.47, 149.00.Support levels: 146.65, 146.00, 145.00, 144.00.NZD/USD: the interest rate remains at 5.50% according to the decision of the RBNZDuring the Asian trading session, the New Zealand dollar is strengthening significantly, testing the possibility of a breakout of the 0.6180 mark up. This movement brings the currency closer to the maximum values reached on August 1, which were updated after the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) on monetary policy issues.The RBNZ, in line with expectations, left the key parameters of monetary policy unchanged. The official statement indicated that the bank was ready to re-tighten monetary conditions if necessary, which slightly changed the mood of investors who expected the interest rate to begin to decrease from the current fifteen-year high of 5.50% in the first half of 2024. The authorities also expressed concerns that the slowdown in the global and Chinese economies could negatively affect commodity prices and New Zealand's export earnings. It is expected that the RBNZ may switch to softer rhetoric if these concerns are confirmed.Resistance levels: 0.6183, 0.6206, 0.6250, 0.6300.Support levels: 0.6155, 0.6131, 0.6100, 0.6075.
Analytical Forex Forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, Gold and Crude Oil on November 29
EUR/USD: euro grows before eurozone inflation dataThe EUR/USD currency pair continues to show moderate growth, continuing the bullish trend started last week. The currency seeks to strengthen above the level of 1.1000, ahead of the expected economic reports from the European Union and the United States.Today, investors are focused on the November statistics on consumer confidence in the Eurozone, where the indicator is expected to remain stable at -16.9. A slight improvement in economic sentiment is expected, with a correction from 93.3 to 93.7 points. Also due for release is German inflation data for November, where the annualized consumer price level is forecast to decline from 3.8% to 3.5%, with a 0.2% decline expected on a monthly basis. The harmonized consumer price index is forecast to be -0.3% on a monthly basis and 2.7% on an annual basis. The Gfk Group survey showed a slight improvement in sentiment among German consumers to -27.8 points, better than forecasts. In addition, the pace of private sector lending in the eurozone fell from 0.8% to 0.6% in October, while business lending fell 0.3%, the first decline since 2015.Resistance levels: 1.1000, 1.1050, 1.1100, 1.1150.Support levels: 1.0964, 1.0930, 1.0900, 1.0850.USD/CAD: US dollar continues to be under pressureThe USD/CAD currency pair has been showing a downward trend since the beginning of November and is currently approaching the level of 1.3549.The US dollar is under pressure due to investors' beliefs that the Federal Reserve will soon start discussing the prospects of interest rate cuts. Christopher Waller, a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, suggested the possibility of a rate cut if inflation continues to decline over the next 3-5 months. On Thursday, data is expected to be released on the core private consumption price index for October, which is expected to fall from 3.7% to 3.5% year-over-year. The realization of these forecasts may strengthen the position of supporters of a looser monetary policy in the Federal Reserve, which may have a negative impact on the US dollar.Resistance levels: 1.3705, 1.3793, 1.3916.Support levels: 1.3549, 1.3450, 1.3305.Gold price analysisThe currency pair XAU/USD is witnessing a slight rise, continuing the uptrend in the short term and updating the last highs recorded in early May. The currency is actively testing the possibility of overcoming the level of 2050.00, with the US dollar feeling moderate pressure due to expectations of the end of the tight monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. Recently, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member Christopher Waller emphasized that a loosening of policy in the coming months is being considered, provided inflation slows. However, other members of the regulator have pointed to potential price increases, especially in energy.Today, investors are focused on revised U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) data for the third quarter and the Federal Reserve's economic report, known as the Beige Book. Tomorrow will see the release of October data on personal consumption price indexes, important for the Fed's inflation forecasting. The annualized core rate is expected to fall from 3.7% to 3.5% and the monthly rate from 0.3% to 0.2%. Also to be released are the statistics on personal income and household spending, where income growth is expected to slow from 0.3% to 0.2% and spending from 0.7% to 0.2%.Resistance levels: 2050.00, 2065.00, 2085.00, 2100.00.Support levels: 2030.00, 2015.30, 2000.00, 1987.29.Crude Oil Market AnalysisWTI Crude Oil prices are in a horizontal trend, hovering around 76.55. Hydrocarbon prices have shown resilience this month after setting the date for the next OPEC+ summit to be held on November 30 via video conference. The postponement of the meeting was due to discrepancies in the alliance regarding oil production quotas. Experts' forecasts lean toward maintaining current production levels, especially from Saudi Arabia and Russia, which have agreed to cut production by an additional 1.3 million barrels per day.Oil price movements are largely dependent on US hydrocarbon inventory reports. The positive movement was interrupted this week, with the American Petroleum Institute (API) reporting a -0.817 million barrel decline in inventories after a significant increase of 9.074 million a week earlier, implying a likely decline in the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) report to be released today. Analysts anticipate a -0.933 million barrel decline after an increase of 8.701 million a week earlier, which could support oil prices.Resistance levels: 77.70, 81.20.Support levels: 75.50, 72.30.
Analytische Forex-Prognose für NZD/USD, Gold, Kryptowährungen und Rohöl für Montag, 27. November
NZD/USD: Neuseeländischer Dollar nahe SpitzenwertenDas Währungspaar NZD/USD erfährt eine Korrektur nach dem Anstieg der letzten Woche, als es seit dem 10. August frische Höchststände erreichte. Im Moment testet der Kurs das Niveau von 0.6060 auf die Möglichkeit eines Rückgangs, in Erwartung neuer Anreize auf dem Markt.Der heutige Tag wird die Aufmerksamkeit der Anleger auf die US-Verkaufszahlen für neue Häuser für Oktober und den November-Geschäftsaktivitätsindex der Federal Reserve Bank von Dallas lenken. Händler werden wahrscheinlich vorsichtig sein, neue Positionen bis Mittwoch, den 29. November, zu akzeptieren, wenn das Treffen der Reserve Bank of New Zealand stattfindet. Es wird erwartet, dass die Bank die Geldpolitik nicht strafft und den Zinssatz bei 5,50% belassen wird.Der neuseeländische Dollar wird von den am vergangenen Freitag veröffentlichten Einzelhandelsumsätzen für das dritte Quartal leicht unterstützt. Diese Daten zeigten Stabilität, nachdem sie im Vorquartal um 0,9% gefallen waren, im Gegensatz zu den Prognosen für einen Rückgang um 0,8%. Der Absatz ohne Berücksichtigung von Autos stieg um 1,0% und übertraf damit die Erwartungen von -1,5%.Widerstandsniveaus: 0.6100, 0.6131, 0.6155, 0.6183.Unterstützungsniveaus: 0.6075, 0.6053, 0.6030, 0.6000.Analyse der GoldpreiseIn der asiatischen Handelssitzung zeigt das Währungspaar XAU/USD nach oben und versucht, über der wichtigen Marke von 2000.0 Fuß zu fassen. Dies geschieht vor dem Hintergrund einer vorübergehenden Waffenruhe im Nahostkonflikt, die die geopolitischen Risiken verringert, sowie aufgrund des anhaltenden Fallens des USD-Index.Experten diskutieren oft die Möglichkeit einer globalen Rezession in der US-Wirtschaft und die Zeit des Abschlusses einer aggressiven Finanzpolitik. Analysten der Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sie schätzen die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Rezession auf 15% und gehen davon aus, dass die Korrektur der Kreditkosten im letzten Quartal des nächsten Jahres beginnen wird. Die UBS Group AG und Morgan Stanley prognostizieren im zweiten Quartal des kommenden Jahres die gleiche Entwicklung mit einer erwarteten Lockerung der Geldpolitik im März, wobei die Experten der UBS Group AG für 2024 eine Zinskorrektur von mehr als 275 Basispunkten erwarten. Unter solchen Bedingungen kann Gold Wachstum zeigen, da der Rückgang des USD-Index aufgrund der weichen Politik zu seinem Wachstum beiträgt, da die umgekehrte Korrelation zwischen Gold und Index gegeben ist, die auf ein normales Niveau nahe -0,80 zurückkehrt.Widerstandsniveaus: 2024.0, 2053.0.Support-Levels: 2000.0, 1965.0.Analyse des KryptowährungsmarktesDie letzte Woche für das Währungspaar BTC/USD war gemischt: Zunächst gab es einen Rückgang auf das Niveau von 35640.00, gefolgt von der Wiederherstellung verlorener Positionen mit Überwindung des Niveaus von 38400.00, aber zum gegenwärtigen Zeitpunkt fiel der Kurs wieder auf 37200.00.Dieser negative Trend ist mit einer verstärkten Kontrolle durch die amerikanischen Aufsichtsbehörden über die führenden Kryptowährungsplattformen verbunden. Zum Beispiel erkannte Changpeng Zhao, Leiter von Binance, die Unfähigkeit des Unternehmens, die Anforderungen des Anti-Geldwäsche-Programms einzuhalten, und trat zurück, wobei das Unternehmen mit einer Geldstrafe von 4,32 Milliarden Dollar bestraft wurde und zusätzliche rechtliche Einschränkungen auferlegte. Darüber hinaus hat die US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) die Kraken-Kryptobörse des illegalen Wertpapierhandels, der fehlenden Maklerlizenz und der Vermischung von Kundengeldern mit Unternehmensvermögen beschuldigt. Die Beamten bemühen sich, die Aktivitäten von Kraken vollständig zu verbieten und finanzielle Sanktionen zu verhängen. Auch Vertreter der Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) erklärten ihre Absicht, digitale Plattformen weiterhin zu verfolgen, wenn sie die Interessen ihrer Kunden nicht schützen.Widerstandsniveaus: 38000.00, 39062.50, 40625.00.Support-Levels: 35937.50, 35300.00, 32812.50, 31200.00.Analyse des RohölmarktesWährend der asiatischen Handelssitzung gab es einen moderaten Rückgang des Wertes von WTI-Öl, der auf das Niveau von 75.00 fällt, was den bärischen Trend der letzten Woche fortsetzt.Der Preisverfall kommt vor dem Hintergrund der abnehmenden geopolitischen Spannungen in der Region Nahost, wo im Rahmen des Abkommens über den Austausch von Geiseln eine Waffenruhe in Gaza eingeführt wurde. Einige Experten glauben, dass diese temporäre Welt zu einer diplomatischen Konfliktlösung werden könnte. Darüber hinaus erwarten die Anleger die Ergebnisse des für den 30. November geplanten bevorstehenden OPEC+ -Gipfels, bei dem die Exporteure über die Möglichkeit einer weiteren Reduzierung der Ölproduktion verhandeln. Analysten sind zuversichtlich, einen Kompromiss zu erzielen, der zu einer Verringerung des Ölangebots auf dem Markt führen wird.Widerstandsniveaus: 76.00, 77.00, 78.00, 79.14.Unterstützungsstufen: 75.00, 74.00, 73.00, 71.77.
Analytical Forex forecast for NZD/USD, Gold, Cryptocurrencies and Crude Oil on November 27
NZD/USD: New Zealand Dollar is close to peak valuesThe NZD/USD currency pair is experiencing a correction after the growth achieved last week, when it reached fresh highs since August 10. At the moment, the exchange rate is checking the 0.6060 level for the possibility of a decline, in anticipation of new incentives in the market.Today will attract investors' attention to the data on new home sales in the United States for October and the November business activity index from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Traders are likely to be cautious about taking new positions until Wednesday, November 29, when the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets. It is expected that the bank will not tighten monetary policy and will leave the interest rate at 5.50%.The New Zealand dollar is slightly supported by retail sales data for the third quarter, published last Friday. These data showed stability after a 0.9% drop in the previous quarter, contrary to forecasts of a 0.8% decline. Sales excluding cars increased by 1.0%, exceeding expectations of -1.5%.Resistance levels: 0.6100, 0.6131, 0.6155, 0.6183.Support levels: 0.6075, 0.6053, 0.6030, 0.6000.Gold price analysisIn the Asian trading session, the XAU/USD currency pair is showing growth, trying to gain a foothold above the important 2000.0 mark. This is happening against the background of a temporary ceasefire in the Middle East conflict, which reduces geopolitical risks, as well as due to the continued decline of the USD index.Experts often discuss the possibility of a global recession in the US economy and the period of completion of aggressive financial policy. Analysts from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimate the probability of a recession at 15% and assume that the correction in the cost of loans will begin in the last quarter of next year. UBS Group AG and Morgan Stanley predict the same development in the second quarter of next year with the expected easing of monetary policy in March, and UBS Group AG experts foresee an interest rate correction of more than 275 basis points for 2024. In such conditions, gold can demonstrate growth, since a decrease in the USD index due to a soft policy contributes to its growth, given the inverse correlation between gold and the index, which returns to the usual level of about -0.80.Resistance levels: 2024.0, 2053.0.Support levels: 2000.0, 1965.0.Cryptocurrency Market AnalysisLast week was ambiguous for the BTC/USD currency pair: at first there was a decline to the level of 35640.00, followed by the recovery of lost positions with overcoming the level of 38400.00, but by the current moment the exchange rate has again fallen to the level of 37200.00.Such a negative trend is associated with increased control by American supervisory authorities over the leading cryptocurrency platforms. For example, Changpeng Zhao, the head of Binance, acknowledged the company's inability to comply with the requirements of the anti-money laundering program and resigned, while the company was fined $ 4.32 billion and additional legal restrictions were imposed. In addition, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) accused the Kraken crypto exchange of illegal securities trading, lack of a broker's license and mixing client funds with corporate assets. The officials seek to completely ban the activities of Kraken and impose financial sanctions. Also, representatives of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced their intention to continue pursuing digital platforms if they do not protect the interests of their customers.Resistance levels: 38000.00, 39062.50, 40625.00.Support levels: 35937.50, 35300.00, 32812.50, 31200.00.Crude Oil Market AnalysisDuring the Asian trading session, there is a moderate decline in the price of WTI oil, which falls to the level of 75.00, continuing the "bearish" trend that developed last week.The drop in prices is taking place against the background of a decrease in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East region, where a ceasefire has been introduced in Gaza in the context of the hostage exchange agreement. Some experts believe that this temporary peace can turn into a diplomatic settlement of the conflict. In addition, investors are waiting for the results of the upcoming OPEC+ summit scheduled for November 30, where exporters are negotiating the possibility of an additional reduction in oil production. Analysts are confident that a compromise will be reached, which will lead to a decrease in the volume of oil supply on the market.Resistance levels: 76.00, 77.00, 78.00, 79.14.Support levels: 75.00, 74.00, 73.00, 71.77.
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF and USD/CAD for Friday, November 24
EUR/USD: ECB notices the beginning of stress in the banking sectorThe EUR/USD currency pair shows a volatile trend, stabilizing around the 1.0900 level. On Friday, market activity remains moderate, and the pair is heading to the end of the week without significant changes, given the closure of American trading platforms due to Thanksgiving. The November statistics on business activity are expected to be published today. Forecasts indicate a decrease in the S&P Global index in the manufacturing sector from 50.0 to 49.8 and in the services sector from 50.6 to 50.4, which may temporarily affect the dollar.German data showed a decrease in GDP in the third quarter from 0.0% to -0.1%, while the annual indicator deteriorated significantly from -0.2% to -0.8%, although -0.3% was expected. The main factors are weak external demand and rising energy prices. Also in the third quarter, there was a decline in private investment under the influence of the ECB's tough policy and a significant drop in production in industries such as the automotive industry. In addition, the market will pay attention to German data on business optimism in November from the IFO Institute and quarterly GDP. Analysts foresee an increase in the optimism index from 86.9 to 87.5 and the indicator of economic expectations from 84.7 to 85.7.Resistance levels: 1.0930, 1.0964, 1.1000, 1.1050.Support levels: 1.0900, 1.0850, 1.0800, 1.0765.AUD/USD: Australian dollar did not react to weak business activityThe AUD/USD currency pair is showing moderate growth, continuing the corrective movement that began at the end of the week and striving to return to the levels of local highs on August 10, updated on Tuesday. Technical factors support quotes against the background of reduced market activity due to Thanksgiving in the United States. However, today S&P Global data on business activity for November will be published, which may make adjustments: the index in the manufacturing sector is expected to decline from 50.0 to 49.8, and in the services sector - from 50.6 to 50.4.Earlier, the Australian dollar actually ignored weak local data on business activity. The index of services from the Commonwealth Bank in November fell from 47.9 to 46.3, which is worse than forecasts, and the indicator of the manufacturing sector from S&P Global fell from 48.2 to 47.7. Business is under pressure due to high inflation and tight monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which may worsen due to new measures to control the price pressure. Recall that on November 7, the rate was raised from 4.10% to 4.35%.Resistance levels: 0.6588, 0.6620, 0.6650, 0.6700.Support levels: 0.6550, 0.6520, 0.6500, 0.6472.USD/CHF: pair has stabilized near the lowest levels since SeptemberDuring the Asian trading session, the USD/CHF currency pair is experiencing a slight drop, checking the level of 0.8830 for the possibility of a break down and staying close to the September lows. Market activity is moderate, some traders are absent due to the celebration of Thanksgiving in the United States. The focus of today's trading is on business activity data for November, a slight decline in the index is expected in the manufacturing sector from 50.0 to 49.8 and in the service sector from 50.6 to 50.4.Switzerland's October foreign trade statistics were presented on Tuesday: exports decreased from 24.780 billion francs to 23.091 billion francs, imports decreased from 18.51 billion francs to 18.49 billion francs, and the trade surplus decreased from 6.28 billion to 4.60 billion francs. On Friday, the market expects a report on the employment rate for the third quarter, the previous figure increased from 5.389 million to 5.432 million. Recently, the Unia trade union in Switzerland announced an agreement with employers to raise wages by 2.5% in 2024, which exceeds the average inflation rate.Resistance levels: 0.8850, 0.8875, 0.8900, 0.8930.Support levels: 0.8820, 0.8800, 0.8760, 0.8730.USD/CAD: prices have reached the lower limit of the trading channel 1.3900–1.3650In the conditions of stabilization of the US dollar, the USD/CAD currency pair is experiencing a correction, trading around the 1.3701 mark.Canada's corporate net income in the third quarter increased by 4.7%, reaching $ 160.3 billion, especially due to growth in the financial sector by 6.7%. The increase in industry was modest, with the main contribution from oil and gas companies ($1.5 billion) due to improved sales prices. The automotive industry showed an increase of 527 million dollars, and the transport industry - by 267 million, with significant participation of air transportation. This development shows that the business is successfully adapting to high interest rates and returning to sustainable operation.Resistance levels: 1.3740, 1.3840.Support levels: 1.3670, 1.3570.
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/TRY, GBP/USD and Silver for November 23
EUR/USD: investors expect results on business sentiment in the eurozoneThe EUR/USD currency pair is experiencing a correction, being at 1.0902, after moving away from the maximum values on August 11 over the past two days.Since the beginning of November, the euro has significantly strengthened against the background of positive changes in the economic situation. Data on business activity in key economic sectors of the EU countries is expected to be released today. It is expected that the index of manufacturing activity in France will increase from 42.8 to 43.1, in Germany - from 40.8 to 41.2, which contributes to an increase in the overall indicator for the EU to 43.4 from the previous 43.1. It is also assumed that the services indicator in France will rise from 45.2 to 45.6, in Germany - from 48.2 to 48.5, as a result of which the overall index for the eurozone will reach 48.1 compared to the previous 47.8.During the day, traders will expect the minutes of the ECB's November monetary policy meeting and a speech by the chairman of the German Federal Bank Joachim Nagel. On Friday, Germany will present GDP data, with forecasts for quarterly adjustments from 0.0% to -0.1% and annual - from -0.2% to -0.3%. Christine Lagarde from the ECB is scheduled to speak tomorrow, where she can give additional information about the future monetary policy of the region.Resistance levels: 1.0940, 1.1090.Support levels: 1.0840, 1.0730.USD/TRY: Turkish president announced the strengthening of the Turkish liraDuring the Asian trading session, the USD/TRY currency pair shows a slight decline, correcting after the recent sharp growth, and is currently at around 28.8300 ahead of new factors affecting the exchange rate.Trading activity is reduced due to the withdrawal of some investors from the market in connection with the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States. By the end of the week, the market's attention will be focused on the S&P Global manufacturing activity index for November, which is projected to decrease from 50.0 to 49.8, as well as on the indicator of activity in the service sector, which may change from 50.6 to 50.4. Yesterday's data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits showed a decrease from 233.0 thousand to 209.0 thousand against the forecast of 225.0 thousand, and the number of repeated applications for the week to November 10 fell from 1.862 million to 1.84 million. Nevertheless, the October volume of orders for durable goods fell by -5.4%, after an increase of 4.6% earlier, which turned out to be worse than the expected decline of -3.1%.Resistance levels: 28.9000, 29.0000, 29.1000, 29.2000.Support levels: 28.7500, 28.6250, 28.5000, 28.4000.GBP/USD: the asset has moved away from the September highs and is stabilizing around the 1.2500 levelThe GBP/USD currency pair demonstrates unstable trading, being near the 1.2500 level. Yesterday, the pair showed a significant drop, moving away from the peak values on September 6, which was a consequence of the growth of corrective sentiment in the market. Investors have reduced their positions in the US dollar ahead of the Thanksgiving celebration.Meanwhile, the British pound did not receive support from the results of the hearings on the national budget and revised economic forecasts. UK Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt forecasts the country's economy to grow by 0.6% in 2023 and 0.7% in 2024, in contrast to previous estimates in March, which predicted a 0.2% decline in GDP this year and a 1.8% growth next. GDP growth forecasts for 2025 have been adjusted from 2.5% to 1.4%. It is also planned to reduce the national debt at an average level by 0.7 billion pounds in the coming years. Hunt also noted the reduction of recession risks and the growth of real incomes of the population, and also decided to postpone the increase in excise taxes on alcohol until August 1 to stimulate business.Resistance levels: 1.2500, 1.2550, 1.2600, 1.2650.Support levels: 1.2450, 1.2400, 1.2350, 1.2300.Silver price analysisThe trading asset slightly strengthens its position, remaining near the level of 23.60. Trading activity is reduced due to the closure of trading platforms in the United States in connection with Thanksgiving.Silver is finding support in the market due to expectations of the completion of the current cycle of interest rate increases by the US Federal Reserve. Despite the relatively strong statements and minutes of the Fed suggesting the possibility of another rate hike, the market is already beginning to anticipate the beginning of a period of monetary policy easing. Some analysts suggest that the first rate cut in 2024 may occur as early as the March meeting of the regulator.Resistance levels: 23.83, 24.00, 24.20, 24.42.Support levels: 23.60, 23.32, 23.00, 22.70.
Daily Forex Analytics and Forecast for USD/CAD, USD/CHF, Gold and Crude Oil on November 21
USD/CAD: future trends will be determined by macroeconomic dataDuring the Asian trading session, the USD/CAD exchange rate remained stable, hovering around the level of 1.3715 ahead of the emergence of new key factors affecting the movement of the currency.Today, Canada is to publish data on consumer inflation for October. The annual index is expected to fall from 3.8% to 3.2%, with a slight monthly increase of 0.1%. According to forecasts, the core inflation index will remain at 2.8%. If the forecasts come true, the Canadian dollar may decline.In the US, investors' main attention on Tuesday will be paid to the minutes of the November meeting of the Federal Reserve System, where experts will look for confirmation of the completion of tight monetary policy and initial estimates of the time when it will begin to weaken. Approximately 30% of analysts believe that the first rate cut may occur in March 2024.Resistance levels: 1.3750, 1.3800, 1.3853, 1.3900.Support levels: 1.3700, 1.3650, 1.3600, 1.3550.USD/CHF: the "American" continues to decline due to an unsuccessful correction attempt a day earlierThe USD/CHF trading instrument resumed its decline after the previous attempt at a corrective recovery failed. The currency pair is currently checking the 0.8830 level for the possibility of further decline, updating the minimum values since September 1.Uncertainty around the potential termination of the policy of tightening monetary conditions by the US Federal Reserve continues to put pressure on the exchange rate. Some analysts suggest that the first interest rate cut may occur as early as March 2024, based on recent data on the slowdown in US inflation in October. The consumer price index fell from 3.7% to 3.2% year-on-year and from 0.4% to 0.0% month-on-month, while forecasts expected levels of 3.3% and 0.1%, respectively.Resistance levels: 0.8850, 0.8875, 0.8900, 0.8930.Support levels: 0.8824, 0.8800, 0.8756, 0.8730.Gold price analysisThe precious metal is strengthening significantly, playing back the previous uncertain dynamics of the last two sessions. The metal is trying to overcome the 1990.00 level, updating the highs since November 3, amid market discussions that the US Federal Reserve may have completed the current stage of raising interest rates. This conclusion was made by investors after analyzing US inflation data for October, where the consumer price index fell from 3.7% to 3.2% per annum, coming close to the upper limit of the Fed's target range. Approximately 30% of analysts are now considering the likelihood of the first rate cut as early as March 2024.At the same time, market activity remains moderate in anticipation of the minutes of the November Fed meeting, from which market participants expect additional signals on future monetary policy. It is also expected to publish data for October on sales volumes in the secondary housing market, where experts predict a decrease in the indicator from 3.96 million to 3.90 million.Resistance levels: 2000.00, 2015.30, 2030.00, 2050.00.Support levels: 1987.29, 1972.85, 1963.55, 1952.66.Crude Oil Market AnalyticsBrent Crude Oil prices fell to 81.94 on the news of a possible agreement by OPEC+ members to further reduce oil production at the upcoming meeting on November 26.Since September, oil prices have fallen by 16%, causing investors to worry about global energy demand amid the risk of increased hostilities in the Middle East. The situation worsened after data on China's GDP and trade balance were published, showing a decline in the country's economic growth from 6.3% to 4.9% on an annual basis in the third quarter.However, market participants also expect the outcome of the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on November 26. In their monthly report, the organization's analysts stressed the stability of the main indicators of the oil market, despite the "pessimistic mood", and confirmed their optimistic forecast for oil demand growth in 2024. Despite this, it is likely that OPEC+ will decide to reduce oil production, especially after reports from Reuters about such plans from Russia. However, experts believe that any new restrictions on production will only lead to a short-term increase in oil prices.Resistance levels: 82.50, 84.74, 88.03.Support levels: 78.27, 71.90.
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/USD and NZD/USD for Monday, November 20
EUR/USD: upward trend with an expected level of 1.1003 in the long termThe EUR/USD pair is heading towards 1.1003 amid a decrease in the strength of the US dollar caused by the latest data on a decrease in inflation.The October US consumer price index fell to 3.2% per annum, which is less than the predicted 3.3% and the previous indicator of 3.7%. Core inflation was 0.2% against the forecast 0.3% and the previous 0.3%. This reflects the effectiveness of the actions of the US Federal Reserve System and may indicate the imminent end of the monetary policy tightening cycle, putting pressure on the dollar. The FedWatch Tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) shows 100% confidence in maintaining the rate at 5.50% at the upcoming meeting on December 13, compared with 90% a week earlier.In the eurozone, inflation was in line with experts' forecasts: in October it was 0.1%, which is lower than the previous figure of 0.3%. Core inflation remains at 4.2%, down from the previous 4.5%. ECB Governing Council member Robert Holtzman expressed the opinion that it is unclear whether the regulator has done enough to combat inflation, and suggested that markets may be too optimistic in expectations of an interest rate cut.Resistance levels: 1.1003, 1.1220.Support levels: 1.0840, 1.0660.AUD/USD: inflation data affect the fall of the US dollarThe AUD/USD currency pair has been updating its peak values since August 10, approaching the level of 0.6550 for a possible breakout upwards. Investors are focused on the outcome of the last meeting of the People's Bank of China, where it was decided to maintain the current interest rate at 3.45%, which has remained since August. Nevertheless, the authorities are signaling the potential for further easing of monetary policy in order to stimulate economic growth.According to a recent report by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, an increase of 55.0 thousand jobs in the country was announced on Thursday, mainly due to an increase in the number of part-time employees by 37.9 thousand. However, this was accompanied by an increase in the unemployment rate to 3.7%. Michelle Bullock, head of the Reserve Bank of Australia, noted that some key indicators, including the number of vacancies, show a downward trend from the maximum values. Most economists, including experts from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., assume that the central bank will soon begin easing monetary policy to avoid additional negative impact on the country's economy.Resistance levels: 0.6550, 0.6600, 0.6650, 0.6700.Support levels: 0.6521, 0.6500, 0.6472, 0.6450.GBP/USD: corrective strengthening of the pound in the face of conflicting statisticsThe GBP/USD currency pair showed a significant strengthening, supporting the "bullish" trend established in the short term. Actively testing the 1.2490 level for the possibility of a breakthrough, the instrument remains near its highs recorded on September 14, but its upward movement is limited by the latest economic indicators from the UK.The deputy head of the Bank of England, Dave Ramsden, spoke about the possible need to maintain a high level of interest rates for a long period in order to return inflation to the target of 2.0% in the medium term. Analysts assume that the bank will begin to reduce rates in May or June 2024, with three adjustments of 25 basis points by the end of next year, while the pressure on mortgage holders remains: Savanta research shows that 58.0% of respondents have overdue payments, compared with 49.0% a year earlier.On the other hand, the position of the US dollar has strengthened thanks to the latest statistics from the United States. The number of building permits in October increased from 1.471 million to 1.487 million, contrary to forecasts of a decline to 1.450 million, and the volume of new construction of houses increased from 1.346 million to 1.372 million with an expected figure of 1.350 million.Resistance levels: 1.2500, 1.2550, 1.2600, 1.2650.Support levels: 1.2450, 1.2400, 1.2350, 1.2300.NZD/USD: New Zealand manufacturing sector shows strengthening trendsThe NZD/USD currency pair is gaining momentum, stabilizing at 0.6028 during morning trading, thanks to positive economic data from New Zealand.In September, the producer price index in New Zealand registered an increase of 0.8% compared to August, while the purchasing price index increased by 1.2%. There was also an increase in the indicator of prices for capital goods by 0.8% and agricultural expenditures by 0.5%. The main drivers of this growth were dairy cattle breeding with 6.7%, electricity and gas supply with 6.0%, and dairy production with 2.3%. These data point to the successful adaptation of the real sector of the economy to increased interest rates and its continued recovery.Resistance levels: 0.6055, 0.6153.Support levels: 0.5970, 0.5870.