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Forex analytical forecast for AUD/USD, USD/CHF, EUR/USD and USD/CAD for Friday, June 2
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, Forex analytical forecast for AUD/USD, USD/CHF, EUR/USD and USD/CAD for Friday, June 2 AUD/USD: developing a bullish momentumAUD/USD currency pair continues to grow actively, forming a strong upward momentum, which began yesterday. The instrument is currently testing the level of 0.6615, breaking through upwards, making new local highs since May 23. Such growth is due to the vulnerability of the U.S. currency, which is declining at the end of the current week.The weak macroeconomic statistics from Australia has almost no significant impact on the active growth of the instrument today. The index of trade conditions declined by 1.5% in the first quarter after the previous increase by 1.8%, which is fully in line with experts' forecasts. Mortgage loan originations fell 3.8% in April after rising 5.5% the previous month, while analysts had expected a 3.0% decline. Investment borrowing for construction also declined 0.9% after a previous increase of 3.7%. Commerce Secretary Don Farrell said he will continue to consult on a comprehensive trade agreement with the European Union, negotiations on which began back in 2018. This agreement aims to establish a fair partnership for local producers and exporters. The official praised the benefits of access for Australian products to the European market, as it promotes national economic growth, investment, job creation and higher wages.Resistance levels: 0.6635, 0.6670, 0.6700, 0.6750.Support levels: 0.6590, 0.6563, 0.6530, 0.6489.USD/CHF: yesterday's publications have not changed the dynamics of the instrumentDuring the Asian session, the pair USD/CHF continues to decline, following the downward impulse, which was formed earlier, and is testing the level of 0.9040.Investors revise their forecasts on the future actions of the US Federal Reserve and assume that the interest rate will not reach the 5.0% level before the end of the year. In their speeches at the two-day meeting on June 13-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (FRB) President Patrick Harker and Philip Jefferson, FRB board member, spoke in favor of not tightening monetary policy. In addition, the U.S. Senate passed by a majority a bill that eliminates the national debt limit until 2025 and provides for cuts in government spending. The document must now be signed by President Joe Biden.Macroeconomic statistics released Thursday had little effect on the trade instrument, with Swiss exports falling from 27.031 million francs in March to 19.902 million francs in April and imports falling from 22.505 million francs to 17.302 million francs. This led to a decrease in the trade surplus from 4.526 million francs to 2.601 million francs, below analysts' average forecast of 3.822 million francs.Resistance levels: 0.9073, 0.9100, 0.9150 and 0.9200.Support levels: 0.9030, 0.9000, 0.8960, 0.8930.EUR/USD: the single currency shows a correctionThe currency pair EUR/USD showed insignificant growth, developing the corrective movement, which was formed the day before. Currently, the instrument is consolidating at the level of 1.0770, with the possibility of a break-up, updating the local highs since May 24. Activity in the market remains relatively low, as traders are waiting for the May report on the US labor market, which will affect the decision of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) on the interest rate. At the moment the probability of the monetary policy tightening at the regulator's meeting on June 14 is 24.0%, while at the beginning of the week it exceeded 40.0%.Data from the U.S. also put additional pressure on the U.S. currency. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) in May decreased from 47.1 points to 46.9 points, which was lower than the expected 47.0 points, and the index of new orders declined from 45.7 points to 42.6 points, which was significantly lower than the forecasted 44.9 points.Resistance levels: 1.0768, 1.0800, 1.0850, 1.0900.Support levels: 1.0725, 1.0682, 1.0640, 1.0600.USD/CAD: investors note the stable Canadian economyDuring the trading session in Asia, the pair USD/CAD shows a correction at 1.3416. The Canadian currency strongly strengthened the previous day, climbing more than 110.0 points against the U.S. dollar, influenced by two key factors.Firstly, the Canadian economy report had a positive impact: gross domestic product (GDP) remained unchanged at 0.0% in March, leading to a quarterly increase of 0.8% compared to the expected 0.4%. The annual GDP figure thus rose to 2.21% from the previous value of 2.07%, virtually eliminating the risks of a recession in the economy.Resistance levels: 1.3490 and 1.3630.Support levels: 1.3400, 1.3260.
Jun 02, 2023 Read
Forex analytical forecast for USD/JPY, NZD/USD, GBP/USD and Crude Oil on June 1
GBP/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Forex analytical forecast for USD/JPY, NZD/USD, GBP/USD and Crude Oil on June 1 USD/JPY: Japan's financial authorities continue to test the digital currencyThe trading instrument USD/JPY is moderately declining, reinforcing the momentum of the "bears" since the beginning of the week. The asset is at 139.40, continuing to decline, while markets await the publication of US jobs market data by the end of the week.Meanwhile, the Japanese regulator reiterated its intention to continue testing the digital yen on the background of a positive test result in the second phase of the pilot project, which began last spring to this spring and showed a detailed analysis on the technology, allowing the use of maximum limits on the operation of the token. At the same time, the regulator's experts were conducting research on the timeframe for replacing traditional banking services with a transition to a new digital asset. As a reminder, starting June 1, Japan will implement a new set of rules to monitor the country's digital payments and transfers in order to track and detect criminal profits. So, from today, any financial institution that receives a cryptocurrency transaction in excess of $3,000 for processing will need to report details on the exchange company's client or the founder of the recipient.Resistance levels: 139.67, 140.21, 140.91, 141.50.Support levels: 138.90, 138.00, 137.50, 136.50.NZD/USD: the New Zealand currency is approaching the low of NovemberThe NZD/USD currency instrument is trading with moderate losses, reaching the area of 0.6000 for further declines, moving towards the local low of November 10. The instrument is under pressure from the published macroeconomic statistics of the PRC and New Zealand.Earlier published block of macroeconomic data reflected a downward correction in China's manufacturing sector business sentiment by the National Bureau of Statistics for May to 48.8 points from 49.2 points, with estimates of growth to 49.4 points, while the service sector declined to 54.5 points from the previous 56.4 points, beating the 50.7 point forecast. Business optimism from the RBNZ for May strengthened to -31.1 points from the previous -43.8 points, beating estimates of -43.4 points. A week earlier the financial authorities raised the cost of borrowing to the target level of 5.5%, after which they allowed the index to decline soon on the background of fixing stable economic indicators, and weakening inflation, which, in turn, continues to hold negative indicators. Minor support for the instrument was provided by the Chinese statistics. Thus, the Caixin business activity of the manufacturing sector for May increased to 50.9 points from 49.5 points, beating the neutral forecasts of experts, and the release of the May statistics on the labor market in the US is scheduled for Friday, the expectation of which keeps the attention of economists. The markets forecast a weaker dynamics of new vacancies in the agricultural sector down to 190.0 thousand from 253.0 thousand. Meanwhile, investors allow to see a slight change in the number of unemployed to 3.5% from 3.4%, which will be the first correction of the indicator in a long time.Resistance levels: 0.6043, 0.6100, 0.6150 and 0.6200.Support levels: 0.5984, 0.5938, 0.5900, 0.5850.GBP/USD: US mortgage rates continue to riseDuring the morning session the GBP/USD trading instrument shows mixed sentiment, testing the 1.2450 area and the local high of May 24. Pound intends to recoup the losses of the end of the previous week, but the upward dynamics is hindered by the strong position of the US dollar.So, the American currency again took the target to overcome the level of 104.000 on the USD Index. The increase in the cost of the threshold of the 30-year mortgage program to 6.91% from 6.69% triggered the decrease in the number of applications for the purchase of houses on the mortgage program of the index from 158.3 points to 154.4 points, which caused the pressure on the mortgage market index to 197.4 points from 205.0 points.Resistance levels: 1.2500, 1.2680.Support levels: 1.2320, 1.2100.Crude Oil market overviewAfter the asset declined two sessions in a row and renewed the local low of May 4, the price of WTI oil shows a correction at 68.57 in Thursday's trading, waiting for a new impetus to move.Wednesday's report showed an additional negative trend for oil. Thus, according to the American Petroleum Institute weekly oil reserves as of May 26, the value increased by 5,202 million barrels against the previous decrease of 6,790 million barrels. Today, on June 1, the market participants expect the previously announced statistics release from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), according to which analysts forecast a decrease of 1.220 million barrels, which will continue the previous decline of 12.456 million barrels last week.Resistance levels: 69.00, 70.00, 71.00, 72.50.Support levels: 68.04, 67.00, 65.74, 64.00.
Jun 01, 2023 Read
Forex analytical forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, USD/TRY and Gold for Wednesday, May 31
EUR/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/TRY, currency, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, USD/TRY and Gold for Wednesday, May 31 EUR/USD: key sectors of the European economy are downPublished macroeconomic statistics, which reflected the downward trend development in the main economic indicators of the Eurozone, caused the EUR/USD pair to correct around 1.0696.For instance, the consumer prices in Spain fell by 0.1% in May from the previous 0.6% growth, which had an impact on the annual figure, reducing it to 3.2%, or the minimum for August 2021. The cost of manufactured goods kept the negative trend to -4.8% from April's -1.5%. Weakening values of the central economies in the region lowered the European Alliance Business Activity Index from 0.51 points to 0.19 points. Taking into account the released inflation data of Germany and France, the current euro dynamics will continue in the medium term.Resistance levels: 1.0760, 1.0950.Support levels: 1.0610, 1.0400.USD/CAD: the pair is going to test a new local maximumUSD/CAD is moving in active growth, being under the influence of the upward momentum formed earlier, when the pair updated the local low of May 24. The U.S. dollar strengthened due to technical reasons and the announced consideration of the bill to increase the national debt ceiling by the congressmen.The agreement reached the day before by President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy concluded last weekend, after which the Congress has only one week to approve the bill, without which the financial authorities will lose the ability to make payments on government bills since June 5. Meanwhile, the macroeconomic backdrop also drew investors' attention with the Dallas Fed's May manufacturing activity falling to -29.1 points from a previous estimate of -23.4 points at -19.6 points. A number of Fed officials are expected to speak on Wednesday, May 31. In turn, economists expect publication of the Chicago Business Sentiment Index in May and the monthly economic survey from the US Federal Reserve, the so-called "Exchange Book".Resistance levels: 1.3650, 1.3700, 1.3750 and 1.3800.Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3550, 1.3500, 1.3450.USD/TRY: Turkish currency is making new record lowsIn morning trading, USD/TRY showed strong bullish momentum and made a new record high at 20.7000.On the threshold of the next election in Turkey, the conditions for the lira to go down were formed, amid the markets uncertainty about the predictability of the voting results. The announcement of the final election results at the beginning of the week, according to which the incumbent President Recep Erdogan won a clear victory, triggered another downward trend in the national currency, as economists expect the authorities to put pressure on the Turkish Central Bank in the future. Thus, the vector of "doves" in the issue of monetary parameters, most likely, will remain the same, which will serve to improve the investment climate of the Republic, strengthening of the labor market and supply of goods to foreign markets that can deprive the consumer prices of the prospects for further growth, which now hold the level of 43.68%, at the cost of borrowing at 8.5%. Meanwhile, experts raise fears that the prices of consumer goods and services in the short term may resume growing again due to the involvement of public resources in the election campaign, for example, citizens were given the opportunity to consume natural gas for free for a month. The sharp decline in the Turkish lira forces market participants to transfer their capital to savings accounts, where the lira is quoted against the U.S. dollar and the state compensates for the difference in exchange rates. Such measures have been in effect in Turkey since 2021.Resistance levels: 20.7000, 20.8680, 21.0000, 21.1500.Support levels: 20.4263, 20.2242, 20.0036, 19.8500.Gold pricesThe precious metal is developing a correction at the key multi-year level of 2000.0.Physical gold demand level is steadily increasing, especially after the cancellation of Covid-19 epidemiological measures in the regions. The Central Bank of the People's Republic of China, for example, has been building up its own gold reserve six months in a row and, according to official statistics coming into publication after a three-year pause, the regulator added more than 100.0 tons of metal to reserves during the first quarter, raising the reserve target to 2076.0 tons.Resistance levels: 1980.0, 2030.0.Support levels: 1940.0, 1890.0.
May 31, 2023 Read
Forex analytical forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD and crude oil for Tuesday, May 30
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Forex analytical forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD and crude oil for Tuesday, May 30 EUR/USD: euro is decliningThe EUR/USD is displaying multidirectional sentiment in the pair, testing the 1.0700 level and the local low of March 20. Investors are keeping low trading activity after the holiday the day before.Meanwhile the economists are estimating the recession in the German economy negatively, which may affect the stability of the European Union participants. Recall that the day before the publication the statistics on the national gross domestic product reflected the decrease to -0.2% from 0.3% against the market expectations of 0.2%, while the quarterly value remained negative to -0.3% from -0.4% against analysts' forecasts of -0.1%. Bloomberg experts see the reason for the low pace in failed energy policy and a slow transition to new technology.Resistance levels: 1.0725, 1.0758, 1.0800, 1.0850.Support levels: 1.0682, 1.0640, 1.0600, 1.0550.USD/CHF: US dollar is getting strongerIn the morning session the USD/CHF is making up for the losses incurred from the two-day correction and traded at 0.9060, waiting for new impetus to develop further dynamics.Market participants' optimism supported the instrument, as traders noted positively the agreement on the US sovereign debt. Thus, at the end of last weekend, President Joe Biden confirmed the information about the success of the negotiations, where the speaker of the House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy, acted as the second party. If Congress approves the bill by the end of the week, the United States will be able to avoid default and investors will shift their attention back to the Fed's strategy on monetary parameters.Today, May 30, the Swiss gross domestic product for Q1 and the index of leading indicators from the Swiss Economic Institute are scheduled to be published. Analysts expect the annual economy to correct to 0.6% from 0.8% but the quarterly economy to strengthen by 0.1%. The day before the dynamics were expected to be zero.Resistance levels: 0.9073, 0.9100, 0.9150, 0.9200.Support levels: 0.9030, 0.9000, 0.8960, 0.8930.AUD/USD: the Australian currency has resumed its declineTrading pair AUD/USD is dominated by the "bears", having lost the potential of upward dynamics of the last two sessions. The pair reached 0.6516 and continued to decline amid weak macroeconomic data from Australia.Thus, investors noted a sharp drop of 8.1% in the number of approved construction work orders for April, previously down 0.1% in March contrary to market expectations of a 2.0% growth, while the annual value has strengthened the negative trend to -24.1% from -17.3%, defying the average forecasts. Tomorrow the April revised Australian CPI data is scheduled for release and it is not expected to show significant correction to 6.1% according to the forecasts.Resistance levels: 0.6530, 0.6563, 0.6590, 0.6635.Support levels: 0.6489, 0.6450, 0.6400, 0.6350.Oil market reviewAccording to the information from the trading floors, quotations of the North American light oil grade WTI are correcting in the downward dynamic at the mark 72.41.The day before the Secretary General of the cartel OPEC has held a conversation with reporters from the Iranian edition Shana, which was an opportunity to refute the desire of the organization to establish a fixed price for hydrocarbons, because exporters want to focus on the balance of supply and demand. Contrary to recent criticism of OPEC+ actions, the official spoke of the need to avoid populist rhetoric in the media, as the organization takes decisions on adjustments based solely on a fundamental analysis of market values and trends. In turn, the official expects the lifting of sanctions against official Tehran in the medium term, which will bring a significant amount of cheap raw materials to the world market and cap the resulting increased demand for oil and oil products.Resistance levels: 74.70, 80.60.Support levels: 70.30, 64.30.
May 30, 2023 Read
Forex analytical forecast for NZD/USD, USD/JPY, gold and crude oil for Monday, May 29
USD/JPY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for NZD/USD, USD/JPY, gold and crude oil for Monday, May 29 USD/JPY: dollar is testing local highsThe trading instrument USD/JPY is developing a moderate decline, having reached the area of 140.40 and the local highs of November 23. The day before it showed active strengthening, not being exposed to the resistance of the "Japanese".The upward dynamic became possible amid the market expectations for the further growth of interest rate by the Fed and the positive macroeconomic statistics. Thus, the earlier published data showed the increase in yields to 0,4% from 0,3%, while the expenditures went up to 0,8% from 0,1%, having exceeded the expectations of 0,4%. Demand for the nation's durable goods rose 1.1% in April, building on the previous 3.3% increase in March, contrary to experts' forecasts of a 1.0% decline.Meanwhile, a block of statistics at the end of last week strengthened economists' confidence that Japan's regulator is not considering the option of correcting the vector of monetary parameters in the short term. Thus, the Tokyo region consumer prices for May decreased to 3.2% from 3.5%, with the market estimates increasing to 3.9%, and when excluding the sectors of food commodities and energy increased to 3.9% from 3.8%, with the analysts' estimates of 4.3%.Resistance levels: 140.91, 141.50, 142.54, 143.50.Support levels: 139.67, 138.90, 138.00, 137.50.NZD/USD: the pair is kept in the local descending corridorThe currency pair NZD/USD developed a negative sentiment, reaching the area of 0.6056 with quite low investor activity amid a clear calendar of macroeconomic publications.According to the publication of the National Statistics Service of New Zealand, the local statistics for April on vacancy rates was released. Thus, the aggregate figure for all industrial sectors reflected an increase of 0.6% to the target of 2.37 million workers, and the top three sectors by sector were manufacturers of goods, up 0.7%, services, up 0.5%, and manufacturers, up 0.2%. Fast food, transportation and postal services, administrative services, health care, and manufacturing showed local leadership. Strong data signaled a positive trend in the national labor market.Resistance levels: 0.6100, 0.6240.Support levels: 0.6000, 0.5840.Gold pricesThe safe haven asset is developing a moderate correction, sitting at the local low of March 22, updated last Friday, May 26, hitting 1945.00 and waiting for new stimulus for a further move.Investors remain focused on the issue of agreeing on the US debt ceiling. Earlier the leader of the United States of America and Congress reached a consensus that will avoid the declaration of economic default in the country. At the moment some formal agreements and minor amendments need to be made, which will eventually allow the congressmen to start coordinating the bill before June 1. Meanwhile, a number of representatives of the two parties in Congress spoke negatively about the existence of some clauses of the agreement. For instance, the leader of the Democratic Party in the House of Representatives expressed doubt that the upcoming vote would find enough votes among Democrats.Resistance levels: 1950.00, 1960.00, 1971.39, 1983.99.Support levels: 1936.40, 1920.00, 1900.00, 1878.84.Oil market reviewIn Asian trading, Brent crude is showing a mixed trend, holding at 77.50.Meanwhile, divergent rhetoric in the OPEC+ cartel is encouraging the pressure on the energy market. Thus, Saudi Arabia issued a warning to the market participants, reinforcing the trend of "bears" on the platforms to stick to balanced decisions before the summit of the organization, announced for June 4 in Vienna, where they will consider the future policy. Traders saw in such rhetoric signals of a possible correction, because since the beginning of the month the cartel has already agreed on a voluntary reduction of production capacity by all participants by 9.7 million barrels per day. For its part, the Russian government doubts that the current quotas will be revised, expecting that the demand for oil products will only increase due to the increased intensity of carriers, air flights and field work of the agricultural sector in the coming summer. Meanwhile, analysts are holding a neutral outlook ahead of the organization's meeting.Resistance levels: 78.46, 80.00, 81.00, 82.00.Support levels: 77.00, 75.63, 74.00, 73.00.
May 29, 2023 Read
Forex analytical forecast for USD/CHF, USD/TRY, GBP/USD and gold for Wednesday, May 17
GBP/USD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, USD/TRY, currency, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for USD/CHF, USD/TRY, GBP/USD and gold for Wednesday, May 17 USD/CHF: instrument has reached a local maximumCurrency pair USD/CHF is trading mixed dynamics, testing the level of 0.8960 and the local high of May 2, updated a week earlier.The day before the US dollar got a moderate support amid macroeconomic data releases, but all attempts to hold the updated limits failed. For example, retail sales for April rose 0.4% to a 0.7% decline in the past, contrary to analysts' expectations of a 0.7% consolidation, and excluding motor vehicles rose 0.4% to a 0.5% decline for March the day before. Industrial production strengthened 0.5%, breaking March's zero trend. Production capacity utilization rose to 79.7% in April from 79.4% as expected by experts.Resistance levels: 0.8960, 0.9000, 0.9030 and 0.9070.Support levels: 0.8930, 0.8900, 0.8858, 0.8819.USD/TRY: lira is actively losing groundThe USD/TRY trade instrument is actively rallying, having reached the area of 19.7400, and the rate of appreciation has been breaking the records of the recent correction.The Turkish currency is actively weakening due to the outcome of the first round voting in presidential and parliamentary elections. The incumbent president of the Republic of Turkey failed to overcome the threshold of 50.0% of supporters, in spite of a fairly confident breakaway from the representative of the opposition in power, as a result of which a new vote will be held on May 28. The current leader's government has been actively reforming the economy since 2017, in an attempt to overcome record consumer inflation and keep the Turkish lira afloat. The current president is ignoring the traditional approach of global regulators on monetary parameters by reducing the cost of borrowing, maintaining the hope that credit products will become more affordable and attractive to international investors in the country, causing the Central Bank of Turkey to come under pressure from the government on a regular basis. In turn, markets have expressed fears that the formed inflationary spiral could have very negative consequences for the financial sector in the country.Resistance levels: 19.7500, 19.8000, 19.8500, 19.9000.Support levels: 19.6530, 19.6000, 19.5500, 19.5000.GBP/USD: UK keeps recording a slowdown in the economyThe strengthened American currency gives impetus to the GBP/USD currency pair to correct at 1.2479.The day before the British pound made an attempt to rise, but on Tuesday the statistics on the national employment market negated the achievement of the asset. Thus, the number of unemployed rose from 3.8% to 3.9% in March amid an increase in initial applications for unemployment benefits from 26.5 thousand in February to 46.7 thousand, which set a new record for March 2021, where such a situation was possible due to epidemiological restrictions. This situation reduced labor productivity by 1.4 percent, after increasing by 0.4 percent. The average wage rate maintained its level of 5.8%, having a disincentive effect on new hires.Resistance levels: 1.2560 and 1.2680.Support levels: 1.2400, 1.2200.Gold PricesThe precious metal is quoted near the key multi-year mark of 2000.0.According to the published report of the World Gold Council, analysts noted a slight sentiment in favor of lowering the key value in Q1. For example, first-quarter demand fell 13.0% year-over-year to 1,080.0 tonnes, while the jewelry industry lowered gold demand to 508.6 tonnes, or 2.0%. Investor demand corrected by -51.0% to 273.7 tonnes, while physical gold bars and coins gained 5.0% to 302.4 tonnes. Capital outflows from gold-backed ETFs decreased to 28.7 tonnes from 270.7 tonnes the year before.In turn, central banks are increasing their purchases of gold to bolster reserves, with the first quarter value renewing its highest peak over the same period in 2022 at 176.0% to 228.4 tonnes.Resistance levels: 2010.0, 2050.0.Support levels: 1975.0, 1920.0.
May 17, 2023 Read
Forex analytische Prognose für USD/JPY, AUD/USD, Gold und Rohöl für Montag, 15. Mai
AUD/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Forex analytische Prognose für USD/JPY, AUD/USD, Gold und Rohöl für Montag, 15. Mai USD/JPY: Die Fed wird aufgefordert, ihren hawkishen Kurs fortzusetzenDas Handelsinstrument USD/JPY verzeichnet eine moderate Stärkung und testet die Marke von 136,00. Der Vermögenswert genießt Unterstützung durch technische Faktoren und die Erwartungen der Anleger hinsichtlich weiterer Schritte der US-Notenbank.Die japanische Währung wiederum ist aufgrund der Politik der japanischen Zentralbank, die am Vortag eine Fortsetzung der neutralen geldpolitischen Parameter bestätigte, ohne Stimulus. Zuvor hatten führende Wirtschaftswissenschaftler an einer von Reuters initiierten Umfrage teilgenommen, wonach die Befragten einen Anstieg des Kerninflationsindex für den Verbraucher im April von 3,1 % auf 3,4 % erwarteten. Lohnerhöhungen und ein Anstieg der Preise für Konsumgüter und Dienstleistungen deuten darauf hin, dass solche Daten in naher Zukunft mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit veröffentlicht werden. Unterdessen zeigten die zu Beginn der Woche veröffentlichten makroökonomischen Daten Japans für April einen Anstieg der Erzeugerpreise um 0,2 % gegenüber einem Nullstand im März, während die Erwartungen der Analysten bei 0,3 % lagen.Widerstandsniveaus: 136,50, 137,50, 138,50, 139,67.Unterstützungsniveaus: 135.57, 134.69, 134.00, 133.00.AUD/USD: Seitwärtsdynamik innerhalb der Grenzen von 0,6820-0,6600Wie das Australian Bureau of Data in seinem veröffentlichten Baubericht für März mitteilte, ging die Gesamtzahl der genehmigten Baugenehmigungen gegenüber dem Februar um 0,1 % zurück, während der private Sektor um 2,8 % zurückging. Die Gesamtzahl für alle Immobilienkategorien sank um 5,9 % und für neue Wohngebäude um 6,4 %. Das Volumen der Anträge für den Bau von Nichtwohngebäuden ging um 5,1 % zurück. Analysten weisen darauf hin, dass die Daten zum Immobilienmarkt, die Hoffnungen auf eine Erholung im ersten Quartal geweckt hatten, nun ihre Abwärtskorrektur wieder aufgenommen haben, was die nationale Wirtschaft unter Druck gesetzt hat.Widerstandsniveaus: 0,6720 und 0,6820.Unterstützungsniveaus: 0,6600, 0,6470.GoldpreisDer "sichere Hafen" wird leicht höher gehandelt, wobei er seine Verluste aus dem schwachen Rückgang vom Vortag wieder wettmacht und die Marke von 2014,00 testet.Der mäßige Druck auf das Edelmetall wurde durch den Nachrichtenhintergrund des vergangenen Donnerstags und Freitags ausgeübt, als der US-Dollar erneut versuchte, seine Position zu stärken. Darüber hinaus wurde der Rückgang der Notierungen durch einen Anstieg der Zinssätze für US-Staatsanleihen und eine Überprüfung der Pläne der US-Notenbank zur weiteren Anpassung der Kosten für die Kreditaufnahme verursacht. Die Expertengemeinschaft erwartet weiterhin eine Nullreaktion auf den Zinssatz und eine Fortsetzung des Zielsatzes von 5,25 %, während die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer weiteren Anhebung am vergangenen Montag nicht über 4,0 % hinausging, inzwischen aber auf 12,0 % gestiegen ist.Die Veröffentlichung der Daten am Ende der Vorwoche, am 12. Mai, übte einen moderaten Druck auf den US-Dollar aus und ermöglichte dem Gold eine Erholung. So sank der Verbrauchervertrauensindex der Universität Michigan von 63,5 Punkten im Mai auf 57,7 Punkte, entgegen den Expertenschätzungen, die von einem Rückgang auf nur 63,0 Punkte ausgingen. Heute werden die Anleger in der Lage sein, die am Vortag von der New Yorker Fed bekannt gegebene Geschäftstätigkeit im verarbeitenden Gewerbe zu beurteilen.Widerstandsniveaus: 2030,00, 2050,00, 2065,00, 2085,00.Unterstützungsniveaus: 2015.30, 2000.00, 1981.46, 1960.00.Überblick über den RohölmarktWährend des APAC-Handels zeigt Brent-Rohöl eine widersprüchliche Stimmung und hält sich im Bereich von 73,75. Die "Bären" machen weiter Druck, indem sie die Impulse der Vorwoche nutzen und das Instrument vom lokalen Hoch vom 2. Mai zurückziehen. Der Markt schätzt das Risiko eines Rückgangs des globalen BIP aufgrund der raschen Korrektur der Kreditkosten durch die führenden Regulierungsbehörden ein, die die Rekordinflation in den Regionen bekämpfen wollen.So hat die US-Notenbank in den ersten Maitagen den Zinssatz erneut um 0,25 % auf den Zielwert von 5,25 % erhöht, entgegen den Signalen aus dem Bankensektor, dass die Krise anhält. Unterdessen wurden die für Ende letzter Woche angekündigten regelmäßigen Gespräche zwischen US-Regierungschef Joe Biden und Kongressabgeordneten über die Anpassung der Schuldenobergrenze nach langwierigen Beratungen auf die erste Hälfte dieser Woche verschoben. Sollte keine Einigung erzielt werden, wird das Finanzministerium ab dem 1. Juni eine Reihe von Verpflichtungen gegenüber der Regierung nicht mehr in vollem Umfang bedienen.Widerstandsniveaus: 74.00, 75.63, 77.00, 78.28.Unterstützungsniveaus: 73.00, 72.00, 71.00, 70.00.
May 15, 2023 Read
Forex analytical forecast for USD/JPY, AUD/USD, gold and crude oil for Monday, May 15
AUD/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for USD/JPY, AUD/USD, gold and crude oil for Monday, May 15 USD/JPY: Fed is calling to continue the hawkish vectorThe trading instrument USD/JPY is showing moderate strengthening and is testing the 136.00 level. The asset is supported by technical factors and investors' expectations on the further steps of the U.S. Federal Reserve.In turn, the Japanese currency is deprived of stimulus by the policy of the Central Bank of Japan, which the day before confirmed the continuation of neutral monetary parameters. Earlier, leading economists took part in a survey initiated by Reuters staff, according to which respondents expressed confidence in the increase of the core consumer inflation index for April to 3.4% from 3.1%. Wage gains and stronger price tags for consumer goods and services signal a high probability of such data in publications in the near future. Meanwhile, Japan's macroeconomic data set released earlier in the week showed the value of goods from manufacturers for April rising 0.2% from March's zero, with analysts expecting 0.3%, while the value of corporate goods at domestic prices fell to 5.8% from 7.2%, with an estimate of 6.0%.Resistance levels: 136.50, 137.50, 138.50, 139.67.Support levels: 135.57, 134.69, 134.00, 133.00.AUD/USD: sideways dynamics within the boundaries of 0.6820-0.6600As reported by the Australian Bureau of Data in its published March construction report, the overall rate of approved licenses to erect properties declined from February's figure by 0.1% and the private sector by 2.8%. The overall figure for all categories of properties sagged 5.9%, while new residential buildings fell 6.4%. Applications for the construction of non-residential property decreased in volume by 5.1%. Analysts said that the real estate market data that had given hope for a recovery in Q1, resumed a downward correction in the present, which put the national economy under pressure.Resistance levels are at 0.6720 and 0.6820.Support levels: 0.6600, 0.6470.Gold prices"The "safe-haven" asset is trading slightly higher, recovering positions lost from the uncertain decline the day before, and testing the 2014.00 level.Moderate pressure on the precious metal was exerted by the news background last Thursday and Friday amid another attempt by the U.S. dollar to strengthen its position. Moreover, decrease of the quotations was caused by the increase of the rates on the US Treasury Bonds and the reconsideration of the FRS plans to correct the borrowing costs in future. The expert community continues to expect the zero dynamics on the interest rate and keeping the value at the target of 5.25%, while the probability of the next increase last Monday did not exceed 4.0%, but after that it increased to 12.0%.The publication of the data at the end of the previous week, on May 12, acted as a moderate pressure for the US dollar, allowing gold to recover. Thus, the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for May dropped to 57.7 points from 63.5, contrary to experts' estimations about a decline to only 63.0 points. Today investors will be able to evaluate the business activity announced the day before by the New York Fed.Resistance levels: 2030.00, 2050.00, 2065.00, 2085.00.Support levels: 2015.30, 2000.00, 1981.46, 1960.00.Crude Oil market reviewDuring the APAC trading session, the price of Brent crude oil displays contradictory sentiment, holding in the area of 73.75. "Bears" continue to press, using the stimulus of the previous week, pulling back the instrument from the local maximum of May 2. The market assesses the risk of decline in the world GDP due to the rapid correction of the cost of borrowing by the leading regulators, intending to overcome the record inflation in the regions.Thus, in the first days of May the U.S. Federal Reserve again increased the interest rate by 0,25% to the target of 5,25%, contrary to signals from the banking sector on the continuation of the crisis. Meanwhile, another negotiation between the U.S. leader Joe Biden and congressmen on the correction of the upper "ceiling" of the government debt, announced for the end of last week, was postponed to the first half of the current week against the background of lengthy consultations. If consensus is not reached, the national Treasury Department will no longer service a number of the commitments it has made to the government in full as of June 1.Resistance levels: 74.00, 75.63, 77.00, 78.28.Support levels: 73.00, 72.00, 71.00, 70.00.
May 15, 2023 Read
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