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Analytical Forex forecast for today, October 5, for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/USD & Crude oil
EUR/USD: the EU currency has updated the local maximumDuring the Asian trading session, the EUR/USD instrument is in a slight correction, having actively strengthened earlier, being at the level of 0.9960, testing the local maximum of September 20. The euro is actively fighting for parity with the US currency, but the "bulls" have intercepted the advantage only due to the decline of the US dollar, and the overall fundamental situation remains with the "bears".Moreover, since the beginning of the week, investors' attention has not been spared by data on a further decline in the PMI (business activity index) among the EU manufacturing sector. According to the data, the indicator from S&P Global for September fell to 48.4 points from 48.5 points for the previous month, the same indicator in Germany reached 47.8 points against 49.1 points in the past due to the decline in consumer activity among the population and restrictive measures of production capacity against the background of rising electricity prices, which did not meet the zero expectations of experts. In the present, investors want to study the statistics showing the eurozone's production inflation for August. As predicted by economists, the level of the cost of production in the monthly indicator strengthened to 5.0% from 4.0%, the annual value increased to 43.3% from 38.0%, exceeding the growth forecast of 43.2%. Bidders intend to get acquainted with the data on the German trade balance, the release of which is announced on Wednesday, as well as the statistics of the PMI index of the service sector.Resistance levels: 1.0000, 1.0050, 1.0100, 1.0150.Support levels: 0.9950, 0.9900, 0.9850, 0.9800.USD/CAD: sideways movement of quotationsThe "American" demonstrates the dynamics of the flat in a pair with the Canadian dollar as part of the consolidation at the level of 1.3520. The price shows an active decline with the onset of the trading week, which allowed the USD/CAD pair to reach the local minimum of September 23 by the time the article was compiled.The trading instrument came under pressure against the background of weak macroeconomic statistics, which caused investors to revise their own forecasts made the day before regarding the pace of interest rate increases by the United States regulator. Market participants noted an active decline in the PMI index of the manufacturing sector to 50.9 points from 52.8 points, with expectations of 52.2 points, according to ISM (Institute of Supply Management). The strengthening of the negative background was facilitated by a zero fluctuation in the dynamics of the volume of US production orders for August, having previously shown a decrease of 1.0% over the previous month, contrary to analysts' expectations of growth of 0.3%. The correction also affected the number of JOLTS vacancies in August, decreasing to 10.053 million against 11.17 million previously.Resistance levels: 1.3600, 1.3650, 1.3700, 1.3750.Support levels: 1.3500, 1.3440, 1.3400, 1.3350.GBP/USD: Bulls' success may face resistanceThe GBP/USD trading instrument has been showing upward dynamics since the beginning of the week, retreating from multi-year lows.On the eve of the UK government announced the partial cancellation of previously announced measures to reduce the fiscal burden, which supported the positions of the "Briton", because earlier the markets reacted to the initiative of the authorities with strong criticism, as this could increase the public debt. Back on Monday, the Ministry of Finance announced its intention to lower the income tax threshold for wealthy subjects to 40% from 45%, and market participants expect to see other corrections as part of the announced reform. Meanwhile, the strengthening of the GBP/USD currency pair may be interrupted, provided that the business activity of the service sector, which is key for the United Kingdom, may be significantly inferior to forecasts. According to experts, in September the value will decrease to 49.2 points from 50.9 points, which will be the first time in the year when the indicator will be stagnant.Resistance levels: 1.1500, 1.1718, 1.2020.Support levels: 1.1230, 1.0742, 1.0500, 1.0253.Crude Oil MarketQuotes of "black gold" of the WTI reference grade have shown a moderate increase since the start of trading on Monday, updating the local maximum of September 21. At the time of writing, the cost of raw materials reached the level of 85.70, having gained support due to the weakening US dollar.Market participants are waiting for the results of the meeting of the OPEC+ cartel, in which plans may be announced to reduce oil production in the range of 0.5-1.0 million barrels in daily terms in order to stabilize the markets. The decision to reduce the production rate can be perceived as an unambiguous signal that under any scenarios involving a decrease in the quotations of "black gold" in the future will have a reaction from key producers. Nevertheless, the organization intends to ensure stable demand on global platforms, which is currently in a strong imbalance due to the curtailment of industrial capacities and pressure on the global economy.Resistance levels: 87.00, 90.00, 91.93, 93.97.Support levels: 85.00, 83.00, 81.00, 79.24. 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Forex analytical forecast for today, October 4, for USD/CHF, GBP/USD, AUD/USD & Crude oil
USD/CHF: the asset is testing 0.9220 The American currency shows volatile trading dynamics in Asian trading session, testing the maximum level of 0.9920, dated September 28, in spite of the weak U.S. economic indicators, released the day before.Thus, the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) business activity index for September dropped to 50.9 points from the previous 52.8, while the analysts expected 52.2. The position of the similar index by S&P Global for September strengthened from 51.8 points to 52.0 points with the expectations of zero fluctuations. Macroeconomic statistics from Switzerland showed a slowdown in strengthening of the national inflation rate. According to the final indicators of September the consumer price index of goods and services fell by 0.2% against growth of 0.3% in the previous month, contrary to expectations of analysts decrease to 0.1%, the annual display of values fell to 3.3% from 3.5%. Also, the PMI (Business Activity Index) from the SVME was reported to have slightly strengthened to 57.1 points from 56.4 points, against neutral market expectations.Resistance levels: 0.9948, 1.0000, 1.0050, 1.0100.Support levels: 0.9868, 0.9807, 0.9762, 0.9700.GBP/USD: the policy of the authorities has supported the poundGBP/USD is developing a sideways trend within the APAC trading session, having reached the level of 1.1300, having updated the local maximum of September 22. The large market participants in England did not keep waiting with the reaction to the government statement on the unprecedented for the last 50 years massive sale of the national currency tax, which provoked the British pound to correct to the historical maximums in pair with the American currency, having already lost 20% since the beginning of 2022. However the decision to change the program was able to support the quotations.Additional support to the asset on Monday was provided by unstated US data, showing a decline of the ISM manufacturing activity index (Institute for Supply Management) for September to 50.9 points against the previous 52.8 points. The similar indicator of the UK manufacturing sector from S&P Global/CIPS showed the correction to 48.4 points against preliminary zero forecast.Resistance levels: 1.1404, 1.1478, 1.1600, 1.1700.Support levels: 1.1300, 1.1210, 1.1060, 1.0836.AUD/USD: The RBA has announced an interest rate hike"The Aussie" started losing ground in a corrective decline, after the bulls' mood dominated in the asset, testing the 0.6490 mark in the present. The drop of the US dollar early in the trading week was contributed by the high demand of traders for risky assets, which was exacerbated by poor macro data from the US PMI from ISM showing a correction in September from 52.8 points to 50.9 points against market expectations of 52.2 points.Investors' interest on Tuesday was focused around the outcome of the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) meeting. The result of the meeting was the continuation of the interest rates increase policy announced the day before, albeit by reducing the step of the increase, increasing the value by 0.25%, contrary to analysts' expectations of an increase of 0.50%. In the accompanying comments, regulator officials noted that the 25 percentage point increase is necessary to better evaluate previously approved measures to combat rising inflation. The agency noted an inevitable stage of strengthening of the consumer price index for goods and services before it can be returned to its target. By the end of 2022, the RBA expects inflation to rise to 7.5%, with a decline to 4.0% in 2023 and to 3.0% in 2024. In the meantime, economic indicators have a sufficient margin of safety, and the unemployment situation continues to be stable. Thus, the number of unemployed citizens recorded for August is 3.5%, an all-time low for the past 10 years.Resistance levels: 0.6522, 0.6572, 0.6650 and 0.6700.Support levels: 0.6450, 0.6400, 0.6320, 0.6250.Crude Oil market analysisBrent benchmark crude oil prices are showing positive momentum after reaching last month's 83.50 level, with investors anticipating the start of the OPEC+ cartel meeting announced for Wednesday at 12:00 pm (GMT+2).According to anonymous sources within the organization itself, the summit may result in participants agreeing to cut crude production capacity by 1.0 million barrels to normalize the market. If the correction of production will exceed the previously indicated limits, there may occur a panic among manufacturing companies, because it can cause a reduction in the prospects for the global economy, and widespread interest rates increases will only increase panic in the market. Economists are already sounding a warning, as systemic monetary tightening is setting the stage for long-term economic decline. Such risks have prompted the most precipitous drop in oil prices since the global Covid-19 pandemic was announced with the advent of 2020, at which time OPEC+ was forced to consider ways to stabilize the market. Any decision in favor of a rise in the cost of "black gold" may increase the degree of pressure on consumers in the West, who are under unprecedented pressure due to the energy crisis.Resistance levels: 95.50 and 104.00.Support levels: 88.00, 83.50. 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Forex analytical forecast for today, October 3, for USD/JPY, NZD/USD, gold and cryptocurrencies
USD/JPY: The dollar continues to hold record positionsThe US dollar continued to develop a gradual but steady growth in the Asian trading session, having resumed the testing of the level of 145.00, with the prospect of overcoming it. The U.S. currency continues to be attractive for the market participants in anticipation of the further steps on tightening of the US FRS monetary parameters, announced the day before. It is expected that the regulator plans at least another increase in interest rates by the end of this year, the more so as experts allow for a correction of 1.25%.Japanese regulator prefers to maintain the same position in order to avoid resumption of the past deflationary effects. Earlier the macroeconomic data was published in Japan that increased the negative factors for the national currency. Thus, Tankan index, showing the dynamics of large enterprises in Q3 decreased to 8.0 points from the previous 9.0 points against expectations of the market to strengthen to 11.0 points, and PMI (business activity index) of the manufacturing sector from Jibun Bank Japan decreased to 50.8 points for September from the previous 51.0 points a month earlier against expectations of the growth to 51.5 points.Resistance levels: 145.00, 146.00, 147.00, 148.00.Support levels: 144.00, 142.54, 141.50, 140.78.NZD/USD: The New Zealand currency is moving in a weak corrective growthThe New Zealand dollar is moving within the weak strengthening during the morning session, moderately recovering from the strong losses suffered last week, testing the 0.5633 level. At the end of the previous trading week traders increased demand for the dollar during Friday's trading after reading the Consumer Price Index data, which showed another strengthening. Moreover, the statistics from the United States only supported consumer sentiment. According to the data, the U.S. households in August increased their incomes by 0.3%, which meets the experts' preliminary expectations, while personal expenses went up by 0.4% against decrease by 0.2% in the previous month, while economists expected correction by 0.2% only.The New Zealand currency was put under increased pressure by the statistics from China released the day before. Thus, the volume of approved applications for construction work in New Zealand in August fell by 1.6% from 4.9% the previous month, with the analysts' forecasts of strengthening by 2.0%. Chinese data had disappointed with a strong decline of services PMI for September to 50.6 points against expectations of 52.6 points.Resistance levels: 0.5650, 0.5720, 0.5800, 0.5850.Support levels: 0.5563, 0.5467, 0.5400, 0.5300.Gold pricesThe precious metal is priced at 1660.00, enjoying moderate support amid the uncertainty in the US currency towards the end of the previous week, still leaving the bulls under the influence of negative factors. Moreover, the safe-haven asset continues to remain vulnerable to rising US Treasury yields.There are still probability that gold will resume its downward trend this week, because the world's leading regulators maintain their stance on the necessity to tighten monetary policy. According to reliable data, officials from the Australian Central Bank are expected to meet on October 4 to raise the interest rate to 2.85% from 2.35%. On Wednesday, the New Zealand regulator will adjust its key rate to 3.5% from the current 3.0%. By Friday market participants will expect statements from ECB (European Central Bank) and Bank of England wishing to evaluate regulators' intentions to tighten monetary parameters due to inflation reaching 10.0% in Eurozone countries.Resistance levels: 1675.00, 1688.58, 1700.00 and 1720.00.Support levels: 1653.92, 1640.00, 1620.00, 1600.00.Cryptocurrency analysisThe first cryptocurrency BTC has been holding in the price range of 19800.00-18750.00 for about two weeks. The previous week the altcoin tested the upper resistance level, but the attempts were not successful and the "bears" retook the advantage of the asset.Like the entire digital asset market, BTC continues to be under pressure over the long term. The dominance of hawks at the U.S. Federal Reserve promoting systemic monetary policy tightening, as well as widespread increased interest from regulators in the turnover of funds on crypto markets in the world's leading economies, geopolitical instability and risks of the beginning of recession by region significantly reduce the attractiveness of investment instruments among institutional market participants. In addition, analysts report that the popularity of crypto-assets is losing demand even among traders in the medium and small segments of the market. As reported in the results of Bankrate's survey of American teenagers, in 2022, no more than 30% of respondents showed interest in cryptocurrencies, compared to 50% in 2020. According to experts, earlier interest was due primarily to the rapidly growing value of the tools, allowing investors to quickly earn money, but now the chances for a rapid return decreased many times over.Resistance levels: 19800.00, 21093.75, 21875.00.Support levels: 18750.00, 17800.00, 17187.50, 16900.00. More about Bitcoin tradingIf you are interested in Bitcoin analytics, we recommend you to visit the analytics page, where you can find the latest analytics on Forex from top traders from all over the world. These analytics will be useful both for beginners and professional traders. The Forex signals service makes it much easier for beginners to make their first steps in trading on the financial markets. The latest Bitcoin forecasts and signals contain support and resistance levels, as well as stop-loss levels.
Forex analytical forecast for today, September 28, for EUR/USD, NZD/USD, Crude oil & Gold
EUR/USD: the U.S. currency is showing an upward trendThe single currency in Europe is actively declining against its major world competitors, which was triggered by the worsening economic situation in the Eurozone.According to the preliminary estimates of analysts from Nomisma Energia, blue fuel prices for end users can increase up to 60% in Q4 and the next electricity price cap will reach 66.6 cents/kWh, which will exceed the previous quarter's cap by 25.0 cents. The Russian natural gas supply chain has once again been exposed to risks following reports of damage and subsequent collapse of the Nord Stream pipeline in Danish territorial waters. According to comments from Nord Stream AG, the operator of the project, critical damage is confirmed, with no known timeframe for fixing it. Against this backdrop, analysts expect Italy's GDP to be revised downward from past forecasts, which could trump a two-fold decline and inflation could reach 10%. Last month, energy prices gained 44.9% against 42.9% last month, foodstuffs gained 10.5% and long-life goods gained 3.9%. The Italian government has already allocated an additional 50.0 billion euros to stabilize the national economy, but these measures are no longer enough.Support levels: 0.9480 and 0.9300.Resistance levels: 0.9670 and 0.9860.NZD/USD: The "New Zealander" made a new record lowThe New Zealand currency is trading in a moderate decline in the Asian session, having updated record lows since spring 2020. At the moment the NZD/USD instrument reached the 0.5600 mark and continues to decline amid an active strengthening of the U.S. dollar position. Market participants continue to expect an increase in interest rates by the U.S. regulator in the future, due to which they refrain from redirecting their own capital to positions of alternative assets, but the risks of an increase in the rate of decline of global GDP are growing, increasing the likelihood of recession in the regions.Previously released data from the U.S. displayed mixed statistics, but can not become a factor in restraint for the U.S. currency. Thus, durable goods orders for August decreased by -0.2%, having preliminary decreased by 0.1% for the previous month, while experts expected -0.4%. Capital goods orders excluding defense and aviation rose 1.3% after earlier strengthening by 0.3% in July, beating analysts' expectations of a slowdown to 0.2%. At the same time, the residential real estate value index was down 0.6% from 0.1%, while experts had expected the index to strengthen positively to 0.7%. However, demand for new residential homes increased 2.28%, down 8.6% for July.Resistance levels: 0.5650, 0.5720, 0.5800, 0.5850.Support levels: 0.5563, 0.5467, 0.5400, 0.5300.Gold pricesThe bank metal is traded under pressure, testing the level of 1623.0, as the US dollar continues to strengthen and has successfully updated its historical high of 115,000 in the USD Index.It is worth noting for the sake of fairness that the structure of precious metal's fall has no physical component, and the decline in value is due to speculative factors and does not reflect investors' capital outflows. The confirmation is the evaluation of gold investment portfolios on the commodity market trading floor. As follows from the publication of data CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), last week showed a decrease in contracts for gold, amounting to 65.7 thousand against 97.3 thousand the previous week, but studying in detail the dynamics of the decline, the decline was rather due to the active opening of new positions for sale. Producers have 5.097k in the structure of the portfolio, while the number of contracts on demand has strengthened by 4.513k.Support levels: 1600.0, 1550.0.Resistance levels: 1650.0, 1700.0.Oil market reviewThe price of WTI crude oil is under little pressure in the Asian trading session, reaching the 77.00 level, approaching the annual low.The probability of recession in the world economy is a negative factor for the asset, and macroeconomic data and comments of officials of leading regulators only fuel fears among investors. Market participants were also worried by reports that the eurozone countries are considering imposing a cap on the cost of raw materials for supplies from Russia, which increases the risks of a complete halt to oil imports from Russia to the world markets. The ongoing release of oil from reserve storages in the USA only aggravates already unfavorable situation for the raw material. According to The Wall Street Journal, the national stockpile last week fell to its lowest level since 1984, totaling 427.0 million barrels.Resistance levels: 78.00, 79.24, 81.00, 83.00.Support levels: 76.00, 74.00, 73.00, 72.00. More about EUR/USD tradingIf you are interested in EUR/USD analytics, we recommend you to visit the analytics page, where you can find the latest analytics on Forex from top traders from all over the world. These analytics will be useful both for beginners and professional traders. The Forex signals service makes it much easier for beginners to make their first steps in trading on the financial markets. The latest EUR/USD forecasts and signals contain support and resistance levels, as well as stop-loss levels.
Forex analytical forecast for today, September 27, for USD/JPY, USD/CHF, Brent & Gold
USD/JPY: the instrument is testing a record highThe American currency is moving without a single trend against the Japanese yen, reaching the level of 144.50. A wave of correction in the markets came because of the active strengthening of the US dollar since the beginning of the trading week.Recall, the regulator of Japan decided to keep the key indicator negative at the end of the meeting, held last week, also income from treasury securities for 10 years did not exaggerate the dynamics near zero. Moreover, it was decided to intervene, which hasn't happened since 1998, in order to strengthen the national currency, which has reached its lowest level in 24 years. At the same time, the consumer price index showed an increase in August to 3.0%, which is the highest since September 2016. Investors' desire to find an opportunity to hedge risks amid the geopolitical crisis provides an opportunity to ease pressure on the "Japanese" position and curb the pace of strengthening of the US currency in the pair USD/JPY, at least for the time being.Resistance levels: 145.00, 146.00, 147.00, 148.00.Support levels: 144.00, 142.54, 141.50, 140.78.USD/CHF: The "American" is losing ground in the pairIn the Asian trading session, USD/CHF is retreating from the local high and is testing the level of 0.9965, updated earlier, and is trying to hold below 0.9890.Investors' attention is turned to the changes taking place in the markets, indicating deteriorating prospects for economic growth in the euro area. Taking into account the processes in the U.S. and China, the cumulative situation could have a negative impact on the global scale. At the moment the regulators of the leading world economies intend to control the actively growing inflation by toughening monetary policy. Thus, by the end of this year economists expect another big increase of the key rate by the U.S. Federal Reserve System, and the Bank of England may hold an extraordinary meeting, at the end of which the regulator will increase a similar indicator due to the collapse of the national currency.Resistance levels: 0.9930, 1.0000, 1.0050 and 1.0100.Support levels: 0.9868, 0.9807, 0.9762 and 0.9700.Gold pricesThe price of the precious metal is trading slightly higher, moving away from the record low of April 2020 reached earlier, intending to hold above the resistance level of 1630.00, while uncertainty about the outlook for global markets is growing.The volume of contracts on gold continues to decrease steadily, already this week the number of liquidated contracts exceeded the number of purchases. As it follows from the report of CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), at the end of last week, the level of transactions of pure speculative nature based on the precious metal fell from 97.3 thousand to 65.7 thousand. The balance between buyers and sellers has not changed much, as the advantage is still for the bears among the swap-dealers, amounting to 150,801 ths to the bullish 96,613 ths, That makes 10 times growth against the previous week, while sellers reduced positions by 21.070 thousand, 4 times more than the previous week.Resistance levels: 1640.00, 1653.92, 1675.00, 1688.58.Support levels: 1620.00, 1600.00, 1579.25, 1562.70.Brent Crude OilThe quotations of the benchmark Brent crude oil have consolidated below the level of 84.00.The dynamics of the raw material is influenced by the prolonged release of crude oil from the U.S. strategic reserves. According to The Wall Street Journal, only last week the reserves were reduced to their lowest level of 1984, amounting to 427.0 million barrels, thereby giving way to the commercial reserves held by the American firms, thereby increasing fears among analysts, since the embargo on oil imports from Russia to the euro zone countries will take effect on December 5. According to preliminary data the world market of the raw materials may lose up to 1.0 mln barrels per day, which will create a strong impulse for the price growth, which will have nothing to compensate for.Resistance levels: 85.50, 92.00.Support levels: 82.40, 76.80. More about Brent tradingIf you are interested in Brent analytics, we recommend you to visit the analytics page, where you can find the latest analytics on Forex from top traders from all over the world. These analytics will be useful both for beginners and professional traders. The Forex signals service makes it much easier for beginners to make their first steps in trading on the financial markets. The latest Brent forecasts and signals contain support and resistance levels, as well as stop-loss levels.
Forex analytical forecast for today, September 26, for EURUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD & GBPUSD
EUR/USD: Negative factors continue to weigh on the euroThe single currency of the Eurozone is showing a negative trend, making another record low and crossing another threshold of 0.9550, which caused the EUR/USD pair to show a decline.The American currency has been actively strengthening its positions during the last week, especially it was brightly demonstrated last Friday, when the negative statistics was published for the markets. According to the data the PMI (business activity index) of the manufacturing sector in Germany according to S&P Global for September showed a decline down to 48.3 points from 49.1 points. Value of services sector decreased to 45.4 points from 47.7 points against expectations of 47.2 points, composite PMI (business activity index) decreased to 45.9 points from 46.9 points against expectations of 46.0 points. The same euro-area-wide index for manufacturing declined to 48.2 from the previous 48.9 points, and for services to 48.9 points from the previous 49.8 points.Resistance levels: 0.9700, 0.9800, 0.9850, 0.9900.Support levels: 0.9549, 0.9450, 0.9400 and 0.9300.USD/CAD: the U.S. dollar strengthens the bullish dynamicsIn the Asian trading session, the trading instrument USD/CAD is showing a confident upward dynamic, formed from September 13 and reached the level of 1.3625 with the prospect of growth in the future, having updated the July record of 2020.Market participants are unanimous in their forecasts that the Canadian regulator will stick to the "hawkish" methods of tightening monetary parameters, the more so as Deputy Central Bank Governor Paul Beaudry said, the core and overall indicators for August were at levels above the target level of 2.0%, despite the slowdown in inflation. Specifically, the Consumer Price Index was at its highest level in more than 40 years at 8.1% over the summer, putting the household sector under unprecedented pressure, accelerating the 10.8% year-over-year rise in the food commodities group. A combination of factors allows experts to conclude that the Bank of Canada will decide to raise the key index by 50.0 percentage points, strengthening it to 3.75% in the summit in October.Resistance levels: 1.3650, 1.3700, 1.3750 and 1.3800.Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3535, 1.3500, 1.3440.AUD/USD: instrument consolidation at the level of 0.6500The AUD/USD currency pair is trading in a moderate downtrend, being at 0.6500 developing a bearish dynamic near the record low of May 2020.Positions of the instrument are under moderate pressure amid increasing popularity among investors of the U.S. currency due to uncertainty in the markets. At the same time, most trades are made in British and euro zone currencies, while the Australian dollar is supported by Friday's business activity data. According to the statistics, the Commonwealth Bank service sector PMI for September strengthened to 50.4 points from 50.2 points a month earlier, beating the fall forecast to 47.7 points, the S&P Global manufacturing sector reading rose to 53.9 points from 53.8 points last month, just short of the 54.0 points forecast. The Composite PMI (business activity index) edged up to 50.8 from 50.2. The U.S. Business Activity Index remained in the lead, which provided the U.S. currency with a high level of demand.Resistance levels: 0.6572, 0.6650, 0.6700, 0.6750.Support levels: 0.6485, 0.6400, 0.6320, 0.6250.GBP/USD: The government's statements are weighing on the pairDue to the collapse of the British currency to the record low of the last 37 years, GBP/USD traded down to 1.0554.The key factor for the pair quotes movement was the report of the U.K. Treasury Department where the actions to stabilize the economic situation were announced. So, besides helping to pay for electricity, taxation was named as a priority area of support. The new Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng noted that the government is working on an algorithm of actions that can significantly help reduce duties, preliminary estimates assume attraction for the implementation of additional 72.0 billion pounds through a number of ways, including the correction of the volume of benefits for the unemployed, which are now provided by the majority of British subjects. Evaluating the risks, the major market participants began to actively redirect assets into alternative currency pairs, due to which the pound may reach parity against the U.S. dollar in the short term.Resistance levels: 1.0800 and 1.1214.Support levels: 1.0276, 1.0000.
Forex analytical forecast for today, September 23, for GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY & NZDUSD
GBP/USD: Pound is near a record lowThe British currency ended the trading week with a weak downtrend, being at a record low. GBP/USD reached 1.1230 at the time of writing within the descending trend due to the US Federal Reserve's decision to raise the interest rate by 75 basis points. After the correction the index was strengthened to the range of 3.00-3.25%. Following economists' expectations, by the end of 2022 the value may rise to 4.40% against preliminary estimates of 4.25%, and by the end of 2023 to 4.60% against forecasted 4.50%. Subsequent stages of monetary tightening will increase pressure on economic sectors and slow national GDP growth to 0.2% by the end of this year and to 1.2% by next year.Resistance levels: 1.1300, 1.1349, 1.1404, 1.1478.Support levels: 1.1210, 1.1140, 1.1060, 1.1000.USD/CHF: The US dollar is strengtheningIn the APAC trading session, the USD/CHF is approaching resistance at 0.9800.Pressure on the growing U.S. currency was put by the outcome of the NBS (Swiss National Bank) meeting. According to preliminary estimates, the regulator announced an increase in the key indicator by 0.75%, which strengthened the target value to 0.50% from -0.25%, where the indicator has remained without correction since 2014. Economists note that the NBSH was the latest to embrace a marathon of monetary tightening among eurozone central banks because of the onslaught of record global inflation. As follows from the accompanying statements, the regulator reserves the right to raise the interest rate systematically in the face of rising inflation.Resistance levels: 0.9807, 0.9868, 0.9930, 1.0000.Support levels: 0.9762, 0.9700, 0.9650, 0.9600.USD/JPY: The Japanese currency has gained groundEarlier USD/JPY had fallen significantly and at the beginning of the session managed to renew a new record high, getting close to the level of 146.00.Positions of the "Japanese" showed quite a significant strengthening due to the interventions of the Japanese regulator. Such a decision had not been made since 1998, however the agency had expressed fears of a sharp rupture of the yen against the US dollar several times before. However, after a two-day meeting the regulator's officials decided to leave the key figures at negative -0.1%. Moreover, the Central Bank of Japan said they do not expect a correction in value; instead they are going to maintain a wait-and-see attitude in the hope that global inflation will soon run out of steam.Resistance levels: 142.54, 144.00, 145.00 and 146.00.Support levels: 141.50, 140.78, 139.67, 138.50.NZD/USD: The New Zealand economy remains under pressureThe stabilization of the U.S. currency has caused the NZD/USD pair to drop to 0.5826, near the yearly low of 0.5800.The central factor weighing on the currency pair was the trade deficit in the New Zealand economy, the trade balance for August was -12.280 billion dollars against the previous figure of -11.970 billion dollars, having lost $2.447 billion on the month. Also a key driver is denoted by a further increase in the price of imported goods, which has already reached $7.93 billion in August against $7.76 billion the day before. Export volumes slumped to $5.48 billion from $6.35 billion in the previous period. Leading the price increase was imported fuel, strengthening by $462 million, or 79%.Support levels: 0.5800 and 0.5650.Resistance levels: 0.5900, 0.6030. If you are interested in NZDUSD analytics, we recommend you to visit the analytics page, where you can find the latest analytics on Forex from top traders from all over the world. These analytics will be useful both for beginners and professional traders. The Forex signals service makes it much easier for beginners to make their first steps in trading on the financial markets. The latest NZD/USD forecasts and signals contain support and resistance levels, as well as stop-loss levels.
Forex analytical forecast for today, September 22, for EURUSD, AUDUSD, Silver & Brent
EUR/USD: on the threshold of the data on business activity in the EurozoneEUR/USD is testing the 0.9840 level.The single currency of the EU is under the influence of the "bearish" dynamics against the other assets of the world currency basket. The single currency is waiting for the macroeconomic data which will be announced for tomorrow. Thus, economists expect a decline of September PMI (business activity index) in most leading EU countries. The composite indexes of Germany may show a decrease from 46.9 points to 46.0 points in August, France may also register a decrease from 50.4 points to 49.8 points. Business activity in the EU composite index may be 48.2 points, which is lower than the previous reading of 48.9 points.Resistance levels: 0.9900 and 1.0120.Support levels: 0.9800, 0.9650.AUD/USD: the "bears" have consolidated their advantage in the pairIn APAC trading, the AUD/USD instrument is showing a downward dynamic, risking to break the strong support level at 0.6600.The asset continues to lose ground for three sessions in a row, reaching another low of May 2020. A negative stimulus for the Australian dollar was the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, which provides for an interest rate increase by 75.00 percentage points. The agency also shared its plans for the medium term, which include a target of 4.40% by the end of 2022 and an adjustment to 4.60% by the end of 2023. In addition, the regulator announced a disappointing forecast for economic growth in the future, in which the national economy will show a minimal growth rate of 0.2% this year, and next year it may strengthen only by 1.2%.Resistance levels: 0.6650, 0.6700, 0.6750 and 0.6800.Support levels: 0.6581, 0.6550, 0.6500, 0.6450.Silver pricesThe bank metal prices are holding a slight decline, moving away from the local low of September 13 reached earlier, approaching the 19.40 mark in anticipation of another signal.After the end of the two-day meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve officials, market participants continue to take a wait-and-see attitude, wanting to assess the results of the meetings of the Swiss and British national regulators announced earlier, where interest rates may be adjusted from -0.25% to 0.5% and from 1.75% to 2.25% respectively. Meanwhile, the U.K. central bank is likely to release an updated forecast of the rate of economic growth going forward, with economists suggesting an increased risk of a recession or the first signs of one.Resistance levels: 19.50, 19.74, 20.00, 20.48.Support levels: 19.00, 18.68, 18.41, 18.00.Oil MarketThe benchmark Brent trades as part of a correction at 90.00 due to more news about disruptions in the supply of raw materials to global markets.At the same time, the U.S. strategic stock continues to replenish for four weeks in a row, which puts negative pressure on the markets. According to the API (American Petroleum Institute), this week correction fluctuations reached 1.035 mln barrels against 6.035 mln barrels a week ago. Additionally, the EIA (U.S. Department of Energy) confirms a reserve increase of 1.142 million barrels, when last week's increase was 2.442 million barrels.Resistance levels: 91.15, 96.40.Support levels: 86.85, 77.66. If you are interested in AUDUSD analytics, we recommend you to visit the analytics page, where you can find the latest analytics on Forex from top traders from all over the world. These analytics will be useful both for beginners and professional traders. The Forex signals service makes it much easier for beginners to make their first steps in trading on the financial markets. The latest AUD/USD forecasts and signals contain support and resistance levels, as well as stop-loss levels.