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Forex analytical forecast for today, February 2, for EURUSD, USDCHF, Silver & Crude oil
EUR/USD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for today, February 2, for EURUSD, USDCHF, Silver & Crude oil EUR/USD: the EU currency is developing a positive momentumThe EUR/USD trading instrument continues the bullish momentum started earlier, when the markets started evaluating the macroeconomic data release and the final minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary issues summit. The pair intends to keep above 1.1020, but some traders are refraining from deals waiting for the outcome of the ECB (European Central Bank) officials meeting, which may result in 0.50% increase of the key index and continue to comply with the set pace on monetary policy, which will allow the euro zone currency to gain support in the market.A notable positive signal for the euro was the euro-zone's macroeconomic data unit which showed the consumer inflation rate dropping by 0.4% in January, repeating the value recorded in December and the annual rate dropping to 8.5% from 9.2%, outperforming the investors' estimations by 0.5%. Meanwhile, experts note that due to technical problems there were no data from Germany in the final publication. Analysts of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations (U.N.) noted that economic activity of the European region will decrease to 0.2%, the relative estimate at 3.3% in 2022, since the weakening of the quarantine measures approved to overcome the spread of infection Covid-19, and the released pent-up demand helped stimulate the economy. The EU continues to reduce the region's dependence on Russian gas, remaining vulnerable to possible supply disruptions of the energy carrier.Resistance levels: 1.1050, 1.1100, 1.1150, 1.1200.Support levels: 1.1000, 1.0928, 1.0850, 1.0800.USD/CHF: USD remains under pressureIn Asian trade the currency pair USD/CHF continues to decline within the framework of the "bearish" trend created on Tuesday, being at 0.9060, updating the record low of August 2021.The negative dynamic for the US dollar was intensified by the macro data, which showed the manufacturing PMI (business activity index) from ISM (Institute for Supply Management) dropping to 47.4 points from 48.4 in January, disappointing analysts, who expected the correction to 48.0, new orders also dropped to 42.5 points from 45.1, while the growth to 46.1 was expected.Swiss publications also failed to meet expectations. Thus, PMI (business activity index) from SVME (Association for Material Supplies and Purchasing) for January fell to 49.3 points from the previous 54.1 points, with a slight increase to 54.8 points.Resistance levels: 0.9100, 0.9150, 0.9200 and 0.9250.Support levels: 0.9036, 0.9000, 0.8960, 0.8925.Silver prices analysisThe bank metal is quoted with active growth, having updated the level of 24.20. The stock develops an upward trend formed earlier in response to the final minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting, where the regulator increased the interest rate by only 0.25% and gave a clear signal to the market that a moderate correction is likely to continue in the future. Contrary to the "hawkish" statements of the regulator's chairman J. Powell about the premature rumors of victory over consumer price growth, market participants expected more.During today's trading the attention of the market participants will shift to the summits of the UK and EU regulators, as a result of which the investors expect an increase of the interest rate by 0,50% and statements on further plan of actions in the short term. If the U.S. Federal Reserve has more room for maneuver in the matter of monetary parameters, the Bank of England and the ECB (European Central Bank) have restrictions of action, as officials take into account a greater likelihood of economic recession in the region. Meanwhile, most analysts are in the mood to hear bold statements from the "hawks" of the named agencies.Resistance levels: 24.20, 24.42, 24.67, 25.00.Support levels: 24.00, 23.60, 23.32, 23.00.Crude Oil market analysisThe benchmark Brent crude oil prices are holding at 84.00.Meanwhile, the U.S. data on storage reserves for the fifth week in a row gives a signal that the supply prevails over the demand. Thus, earlier API (American Petroleum Institute) announced that it had increased by 6.330mb, while EIA (Energy Information Administration) statistics showed a build-up of 4.140mb, having risen by 0.533mb the day before. The published data intends to act as a negative factor for oil price, however investors don't hurry to react to the reports. Moreover, according to the released report from IEA (International Energy Agency), plans of G7 countries to approve the ceiling for Russian oil quotations in order to limit the supply of raw materials in the markets will not be able to cause serious consequences.Resistance levels: 85.50, 92.00.Support levels: 80.64, 75.50.
Feb 02, 2023 Read
Forex analytical forecast for today, January 31, for USDCAD, NZDUSD, USDJPY & Gold
USD/CAD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for today, January 31, for USDCAD, NZDUSD, USDJPY & Gold USD/CAD: dollar is moving upUSD/CAD is growing moderately in the morning trading session, being influenced by the bullish trend which was formed earlier.The current week was marked with the retreat from the local minimum of November 16 due to the decision of investors to refrain from the market activity ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve summit, scheduled for Wednesday, waiting for the key value to strengthen by 0.25%, which will raise the target to 4.5%, thereby giving a hint to economists about the soonest completion of a system tightening of monetary parameters. Meanwhile, experts urge to refrain from hasty evaluations, admitting that the position of the regulator's chairman J. Powell may take the side of "hawks". In general, economists agree in their position that the target value by the end of 2023 has no chance to cross the 5.0% mark, even on the contrary - a slight correction is likely by the end of the year.The data on the Canadian labor market will not be published this week, that is why investors are mostly interested in the PMI (business activity index) data from S&P Global and the data on the GDP (gross domestic product) dynamics for November, which is forecasted to fluctuate zero, having been previously fixed at 0.1% for October.Resistance levels: 1.3450, 1.3500, 1.3550 and 1.3600.Support levels: 1.3400, 1.3350, 1.3300, 1.3250.NZD/USD: January low updateThe NZD/USD trading instrument reflects the downtrend, being influenced by the "bearish" signal from Monday's trading session. The pair is in the area of 0.6450, continuing the decrease, having updated the local minimum of January 23.Some support for the pair was provided by the data from China, which recorded a recovery in business activity. Thus, the NBS (National Bureau of Statistics) reported that the manufacturing sector in January strengthened to 50.1 points from 47.0 points, beating investors' expectations of 49.7 points and services sector to 54.4 points from 41.6 points, beating the forecast growth of 51.0 points.The New Zealand currency is showing vulnerability ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's meeting, the results of which will be announced tomorrow. The agency is expected to raise the interest rate by 0.25%, but there is a chance that the chairman of the regulator will announce the continuation of monetary tightening at a soft pace in the short term. Whatever the outcome of the summit, economists expect the dollar to gain new support for further gains as it strengthens ahead of national labor market statistics due out later in the week.Resistance levels: 0.6500, 0.6535, 0.6600, 0.6650.Support levels: 0.6450, 0.6400, 0.6350, 0.6288.USD/JPY: Japan's retail sales rose unexpectedlyThe trading pair USD/JPY is at 130.32, however the macro report released this morning corrected the recent negative trend.According to the statistics, one of the main values reflecting consumer activity, the index of retail sales for December has strengthened from 2.5% to 3.8%, beating market expectations of a 3.0% growth, while the value for large retailers rose 1.1% against a decline of 1.3% in November. Moreover, the unemployment rate for the same period was 2.5% with the jobless claims ratio still at 1.35.Resistance levels: 131.60, 135.40.Support levels: 129.00, 126.30.Gold analysisThe precious metal is trading at 1920.00, influenced by contradictory factors. A week earlier the asset successfully updated April's high at 1950.00, backed by a weaker USD Index.The announced summits of the ECB (European Central Bank) and the Bank of England serve to strengthen the "bears". The financial authorities of the two countries are set to raise key values by 0.50% and also give signals to the market on further monetary tightening by a milder step. Investors are waiting for the consumer price index for January to be published this week. Preliminary estimates suggest inflation will hold above the 9.0% level, surpassing the 2.0% target set by the ECB. The economic recession poses much more of a threat to British and European regulators than to the U.S. agency, so there is limited flexibility for the former to proceed.Resistance levels: 1930.00, 1952.53, 1974.22, 2000.00.Support levels: 1915.00, 1900.00, 1886.46, 1869.49.
Jan 31, 2023 Read
Forex analytical forecast for today, January 30, for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF & AUDUSD
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, Forex analytical forecast for today, January 30, for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF & AUDUSD EURUSD: the "bears" have intercepted the initiative on the euroThe EURUSD is trading in a sideways trend, being at 1.0875. The currency pair is showing consolidation, having completed the decline in the previous two trading days, having moved away from April's resistance threshold. Investors are refraining from active actions in the trading session on Monday, waiting for the publication of macroeconomic data from Germany and the EU.So, the publication of the first estimate of German GDP (gross domestic product) for Q4 2022 is announced for today. Experts' preliminary expectations are inclined to zero trend, having previously increased by 0.4% and the annual rate of strengthening may decrease to 1.1% from 1.2%. In addition, analysts are focused around the announcement of the release of consumer confidence and sentiment in the EU economic environment for January. According to preliminary estimates the figures will show a slight decline to 94.6 points from 95.8 points.Resistance levels: 1.0928, 1.1000, 1.1051, 1.1100.Support levels: 1.0850, 1.0800, 1.0759, 1.0700.USDCHF: The U.S. currency trades in different directionsIn Asian trading the USDCHF currency pair reflects a multidirectional trend, testing 0.9200, successfully keeping moderate bullish momentum from late last week, where the "American" retreated from the local low of January 20.The market is focused around the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for Wednesday, for which analysts give a cautious forecast and expect a 0.25% interest rate increase, which will signal economists that the systemic monetary tightening will end soon. Meanwhile, analysts do not rule out the possibility that the correction will continue in one step in the first half of this year, a step of 0.50%, and the U.S. financial authorities will be guided by the indicator of consumer prices and the risk of recession in the national economy.Resistance levels: 0.9250, 0.9300, 0.9350 and 0.9400.Support levels: 0.9200, 0.9150, 0.9100, 0.9050.AUDUSD: Australian consumer prices set a new recordThe AUDUSD trading instrument reflects a mixed trend, hovering around 0.7100, pending the release of a macroeconomic data set. Moreover, investors are waiting for the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England and ECB (European Central Bank) meetings announced for this week. According to preliminary estimates, U.S. officials will increase the key indicator by 0.25%, while European and British regulators will raise the value by 0.50%.At the beginning of the trading week the currency pair continues to be influenced by last week's statistics. Thus, Australia's consumer price index hit a 32-year high of 7.8% in Q4, manufacturing inflation edged up only 0.7%, down from 1.9% in the quarter, while the annualized rate of manufacturing fell to 5.8% from 6.4%, disappointing analysts who expected a decline to only 6.3%. The negative trend was driven by sharp increases in the cost of food, motor fuel, and housing, but external and internal displacement showed the highest consumption rates, 13.3% and 7.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, the truncated annual average inflation rate reached 6.9%, setting an all-time record.Resistance levels: 0.7150, 0.7202, 0.7250, 0.7300.Support levels: 0.7100, 0.7050, 0.7000, 0.6950.GBPUSD: U.S. households cut spendingThe local decline in the U.S. dollar trading instrument reflects a correction at 1.2400. "The Briton is holding neutral amid comments at the UK Treasury Department.Jeremy Hunt absolutely supported the 2022 tax reform project, urging people in retirement to reenter the workforce, because overcoming inflation is only possible by increasing productive activity through new job openings. Some experts strongly condemned this initiative noting that the current situation requires reducing the tax burden, rather than calling on the population to correct the mistakes of the authorities.Resistance levels: 1.2500 and 1.2800.Support levels: 1.2260, 1.1900.
Jan 30, 2023 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for today, January 27 for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD & USDTRY
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/TRY, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for today, January 27 for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD & USDTRY EURUSD: U.S. economy has gloomy prospectsDuring the Asian trading session, EURUSD is developing a local uptrend at 1.0869 due to the uncertainty of the US dollar.Despite the local rise in values, the economic recession continues to be the main threat to the European economy, which has all chances to occur by the third quarter of 2023. As it follows from the report of IFO (Institute for Economic Research) published a day earlier, the business climate in Germany strengthened to 90.2 points from 88.6 points, the index of business prospects to 86.4 points from 83.2 points, the economic climate has declined to 94.1 points from 94.4 points amid falling costs for "blue fuel", which allowed companies to reduce spending.The U.S. dollar is holding near the 101.700 mark in the USD Index due to mixed sentiment among investors on the back of the releases the day before. For instance, GDP (gross domestic product) slowed down from 3.2% to 2.9% in the fourth quarter, contrary to the more pessimistic expectation of -2.6%. The underlying indicator for durable goods orders showed a slight decline of 0.1%, having previously increased by a similar amount, and unemployment claims dropped to 186,000 from 192,000.Resistance levels: 1.0920, 1.1160.Support levels: 1.0790, 1.0590.GBPUSD: the "Briton" is testing the local maximum.The trading instrument GBPUSD is under the influence of contradictory factors and is near the local ceiling for June. The pair is testing the area of 1.2400, but the release of macroeconomic data block returned the advantage to the "bears" in the market.Recall that a number of investors are trying to assess the US GDP (gross domestic product) in Q4 2022, which has met expectations of a decline from 3.2% to 2.9%, against the forecast of 2.6%. The U.S. Federal Reserve is getting a boost ahead of the first announced meeting of officials this year, scheduled for next week. Experts concede that the demonstrated strength in economic growth will allow the regulator to increase the interest rate by 0.50%, but most analysts expect a correction of only 0.25%. Earlier the U.S. currency gained additional support thanks to statistics on orders of long-life goods that rose 5.6% in December against a 1.7% slump last month while the market was expecting only a 2.5% correction. Excluding defense orders, the figure rose 6.3%, previously down 2.3% for November with an estimate of a moderate decline of -0.1%.Resistance levels: 1.2400, 1.2500, 1.2600, 1.2700.Support levels: 1.2311, 1.2240, 1.2150, 1.2084.USDCAD: the pair has moved up slightlyThe currency pair USDCAD is quoted by the moderate strengthening, moving away from the local low of November 18.Earlier, the U.S. dollar reflected a strong decline, ignoring the rather positive publication on the national GDP (gross domestic product) in the fourth quarter of the previous year, where the national economy slowed to 2.9% from the previous 3.2% while analysts were confident to see a decline to 2.6%. Such situation resulted in the forced correction of expectations concerning the further strategy on the issue of further toughening of monetary parameters by the US FRS. Meanwhile, the fundamental scenario, as before, provides for the correction of the interest rate only by 0.25% after the announced meeting on February 1.Resistance levels: 1.3350, 1.3400, 1.3450 and 1.3500.Support levels: 1.3300, 1.3226, 1.3150, 1.3100.USDTRY: Turkish regulator leaves inflation expectations unchangedUSDTRY is bullish this morning, hovering around 18.80 amid positive statistics from the US. Contrary to expectations of a larger drop to 2.6% of GDP in Q4 2022, the decline was only 2.9% from 3.2%, which caused confusion among experts regarding further decisions of the US Federal Reserve on monetary parameters following the February 1 meeting, but the main scenario, as before, provides for a 0.25% correction of the index.Meanwhile, financial authorities in Turkey say that expectations for consumer inflation will remain unchanged at 22.3% this year and at 8.8% in 2024. Officials emphasize that they will continue to follow the current vector in the issue of monetization, and the growth rate of credit costs will be tied to the inflation target within the establishment of a financial balance, as for December the value decreased to 64.27% from 84.39% with zero dynamics of interest rate adjustment. The U.N. experts' estimates reinforce confidence in the positive scenario that inflation will slow to 42.4% by 2024 and national economic growth could strengthen by 3.7%.Resistance levels: 18.8000, 18.8500, 18.9000, 19.0000.Support levels: 18.7500, 18.6815, 18.6390, 18.6000.
Jan 27, 2023 Read
Forex analytical forecast for today, January 26, for USDJPY, NZDUSD, GBPUSD & Silver
GBP/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Silver, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for today, January 26, for USDJPY, NZDUSD, GBPUSD & Silver USDJPY: dollar is under pressureThe trading instrument USDJPY is showing no signs of losing ground, testing the level of 129.30, continuing the downward trend that started on Tuesday, January 24, where the American currency was holding close to the local highs of January 18. The pair is consolidating amid expectations for the macroeconomic bloc to be released later this week.Meanwhile, consumer price data for January is scheduled for release tomorrow. According to preliminary estimates the consumer inflation rate in Tokyo and the region will rise to 4.4%, creating conditions for the financial authorities of the country to stop the course from soft monetary parameters in the foreseeable future. At the same time, Japan's Ministry of Finance said that economic indicators continue to decline rapidly due to the increasing intensity of hostilities in Russia's war against Ukraine and as a result of the costs of fighting the Covid-19 pandemic. According to comments made by Shunichi Suzuki, head of the Ministry of Finance, the authorities will support households and companies that are under pressure due to rising prices, which reached a 41-year record. Recall that for December the value added 4.0% in annual terms without taking into account food. The head of the government sees the solution in correcting wages to above inflation, paying subsidies to families with children, encouraging investors and reforming the areas of "green" and digital transformation.Resistance levels: 130.00, 131.00, 132.00, 133.00.Support levels: 129.00, 128.00, 127.00, 126.34.NZDUSD: the pair is holding near the local highThe NZDUSD currency pair reflects a moderate strengthening, recovering losses incurred earlier when the instrument moved away from the local high of January 18. A moderate support for the instrument is waiting for the release of the block of macroeconomic data from the U.S. value of GDP (gross domestic product) for Q4 of the previous year. It is predicted that the active recession of the economic activity will accelerate the completion of the cyclical interest rate corrections by the U.S. Federal Reserve.Additional support for the pair is the market participants' hope for the continuation of the positive dynamics of the Chinese economic indicators, which still failed to recover after the cancellation of the quarantine measures. Recall that in December 2022 the Chinese authorities stopped supporting the "zero tolerance" to the spread of COVID-19 infection, which will provide an incentive for the resumption of industrial activity and restoration of the trade balance.Resistance levels: 0.6500, 0.6535, 0.6600 and 0.6650.Support levels: 0.6450, 0.6400, 0.6350 and 0.6288.GBPUSD: the bears continue to press on the economyWeak macro data released on the previous day leaves no chance for the "bulls" to retake the initiative and therefore national economy keeps sliding, and GBPUSD reached 1.2400.The manufacturing sector activity rose to 46.7 points from 45.3 points earlier, services sector declined to 48.0 points from 49.9 points, bringing the benchmark reading to 47.8 points from 49.0 points. Manufacturers recorded a 0.8% decline in December selling prices, adjusting the year-over-year increase to 14.7% from 17.5% last year, and a 1.1% decline in purchasing prices, slowing the year-over-year trend from 19.2% to 16.5%.Resistance levels: 1.2500, 1.2800.Support levels: 1.2280, 1.1900.Silver pricesDuring morning trading, the precious metal reflects a mixed trend, sitting at 23.80.Traders will abstain from new trades on the asset, wishing to wait for the release of key U.S. economic indicators, including dynamics of GDP (gross domestic product) for Q4, where economists forecast decline to 2.6% from the current 3.2%, and loss of initiative from the "hawks" in the U.S. Federal Reserve. Next week, the agency is likely to announce a strengthening of the key indicator by only 0.25%, and experts agree that the next phase of interest rate hikes of similar magnitude will be announced before the summer, followed by a break to assess the effect of the cumulative measures taken. The ECB (European Central Bank) and the Bank of England are showing more determination, so silver prices will react to possible interest rate increases. Moreover, the Japanese regulator, which for a considerable time had a "dovish" vector in monetary parameters, may switch to "hawkish" rhetoric in the short term.Resistance levels: 24.00, 24.20, 24.42, 24.67.Support levels: 23.60, 23.32, 23.00, 22.70.
Jan 26, 2023 Read
Forex analytical forecast for today, January 25, for EURUSD, USDCHF, USDCAD & Crude oil
EUR/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Forex analytical forecast for today, January 25, for EURUSD, USDCHF, USDCAD & Crude oil EURUSD: the euro is moderately advancingThe EURUSD trading instrument traded slightly higher during the morning session, reaching the resistance level of 1.0900. The pair still has a moderate positive trend from the 19th of January, but the potential for "bullish" stimulus is reduced, because market participants expect a new positive for the pair.A day earlier the statistics on business confidence in the Eurozone was released by S&P Global in January. Thus, the manufacturing sector strengthened to 48.8 points from 47.8, beating the experts' expectations of 48.5 points. The service sector increased to 50.7 points from 49.8, with the market estimate of 50.2 points. The manufacturing sector in the composite index for January increased to 50.2 points from the previous 49.3 points, with the preliminary expectation of 49.8 points. In addition the February consumer sentiment index data from Gfk Group came in, reflecting the slowdown to -33.9 points from -37.5 points with market estimates of -33.0. Overall, confirming consumer sentiment due to the energy market situation, but demand for energy resources continues to remain low on the part of private consumers.Resistance levels: 1.0925, 1.0957, 1.1000, 1.1051.Support levels: 1.0850, 1.0800, 1.0759, 1.0700.USDCHF: The US dollar has taken a wait-and-see attitudeIn the trading session of the APAC countries the currency pair USDCHF is gradually strengthening positions during the unstable uptrend since Friday.Earlier the U.S. dollar was supported by a block of A block of macroeconomic data from the U.S., reflecting business activity from S & P Global in January. Thus, the PMI (business activity index) of the services sector increased to 46.6 points from 44.7 points with a negative estimate of 44.5 points, the manufacturing sector increased to 46.8 points from 46.2 points, beating expectations of 46.1 points with a composite value of 46.6 points from 45.0 points, beating analysts' forecast of a decline to 44.7 points. Meanwhile the manufacturing activity of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond showed a sharp decline to -11.0 points from 1.0, disappointing analysts expectations for a negative trend of -4.0 points.Resistance levels: 0.9250, 0.9300, 0.9350 and 0.9400.Support levels: 0.9200, 0.9150, 0.9100, 0.9036.USDCAD: The instrument is waiting for the decisions of the Canadian Central BankAt the end of the previous week the currency pair USDCAD decreased to the level of 1.3360, remaining in the marked area.Market participants continue to keep low activity, wanting to wait for the release of the final minutes of the meeting of the Canadian regulator on the further adjustment of the interest rate, announced for today. According to preliminary estimates, taking into account the weakening of price pressures, namely a decrease in consumer inflation in December to 6.3%, the HEA of Canada will lower the step of strengthening the interest rate to 0.25%, bringing the target value to 4.50%, which will update the record of the last 15 years. The outcome statements from regulators are particularly interesting for market participants as the market is waiting for hints that the central bank will pause the cycle of monetary tightening to cumulatively review earlier measures. With such an outcome the Canadian dollar will inevitably find itself under the influence of negative factors.Resistance levels: 1.3455, 1.3550, 1.3671.Support levels: 1.3305, 1.3183, 1.3060.Oil market analysisThe price of WTI crude oil reflects mixed trading, testing the 80.50 mark. Earlier the asset showed a slight decline, leaving its December 5 highs, reacting to the strengthening U.S. dollar, which received stimulus amid macroeconomic data on business confidence in January.Meanwhile, the attractiveness of "black gold" is still high, because bidders predict an increase in demand from the PRC due to the relaxation of restrictive measures against Covid-19 from December, stimulating the recovery of industrial and business activity in China. However, experts predict a decrease in the level of supply of hydrocarbons in the markets already by early spring, as in the Eurozone are announced expansion of restrictions on Russian oil supplies. The analysts assume that in the nearest future the EU will revise the limit price for Russian oil products and the sanctions will also affect the refined fuel.Resistance levels: 81.00, 82.00, 82.62 and 83.50.Support levels: 79.81, 78.74, 78.00, 77.00.
Jan 25, 2023 Read
Forex analytical forecast for today, January 24, for EURUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD & Crude oil
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Forex analytical forecast for today, January 24, for  EURUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD & Crude oil EURUSD: the business climate in the Eurozone has the prospect of improvementThe trading instrument EURUSD is developing a local uptrend and is testing 1.0874, amid the announced data on January index of business activity in the key countries of the European alliance.According to experts' preliminary estimates, manufacturing activity in France may rise to 49.6 points against the previous 49.2. The service sector may gain 49.8 points against the previous 49.5. Similar indicators in Germany will improve to 47.9 points against 47.1 points in December and to 49.6 points against 49.2 points. The region's manufacturing sector could rise to 48.5 points from the previous 47.8 points, and the services sector has a chance to cross the 50.0 point threshold, reaching 50.2 points, renewing September's 2022 reading.Resistance levels: 1.0931, 1.1160.Support levels: 1.0785, 1.0519.AUDUSD: the pair is strengthening within the upward trendThe trading instrument AUDUSD traded with mixed trend during morning session, being around 0.7020 and the local high of January 18. Earlier the currency pair was actively strengthening the quotes, which allowed the "Aussie" to recover the lost positions of the previous week to the maximum. In the meantime the macroeconomic data block was published before the session beginning on Tuesday.Thus, the PMI (business activity index) of the service sector from the Commonwealth Bank for January rose to 48.3 points from the previous 47.3 points, against investors' estimates of 49.7 points. The manufacturing sector decreased to 49.8 points from 50.2 points while the market expected the growth to 50.3 points. Business activity in the composite index strengthened to 48.2 points from the previous 47.5 points. Business conditions from the NBA (National Australia Bank) for December declined in the index to 12.0 points from 20.0 points with expectations of a decline to 19.0 points, and business confidence strengthened to -1.0 points from -4.0 points with estimates of a rise to 3.0 points.Resistance levels: 0.7050, 0.7100, 0.7150, 0.7202.Support levels: 0.7000, 0.6950, 0.6900, 0.6850.USDCAD: negative factors are affecting the American currencyAfter renewal of the local maximum by USD during the previous Thursday, January 6, the instrument USDCAD continues to develop the dynamics of "bears", being in the area of 1.3350 in expectation of the next stimulus.According to the preliminary announcements, the release of the service sector statistics is scheduled for today, and on Thursday will be the first estimate of the dynamics of the American GDP (gross domestic product) for Q4, which may show the slowdown to 2.8% from 3.2% due to the sharp correction of the monetary parameters by the US Federal Reserve. The same day, investors will pay attention to the outcome of the meeting of the Canadian Central Bank officials on the issue of monetary policy. Preliminary estimates foresee an increase of the interest rate by only 0.25%, which will strengthen the target level to 4.5%. Analysts expect the accompanying statements to provide further guidance on the interest rate as the rate approaches the regulator's target.Resistance levels: 1.3400, 1.3450, 1.3500, 1.3550.Support levels: 1.3341, 1.3300, 1.3226, 1.3150.Oil market analysisThe price of "black gold" of the Brent grade has been actively growing since the beginning of this month, testing the level of 89.00.The positive dynamics is still supported by several key stimuli: the growth of Chinese GDP and decrease of the key correction step by the Fed. Thus, the lifting of quarantine restrictions by the Chinese authorities has already had a positive effect, increasing the intensity of domestic traffic in the provinces for the Eastern Calendar New Year holiday. According to the latest data, the number of cars on the roads has increased by 22.0% this month, which increases the potential demand for fuel and the strengthening of the cost. OPEC estimates that China's economic performance in 2023 will boost global black gold demand by up to 2.2 million barrels per day, while the IEA (International Energy Agency) reports 1.9 million barrels per day.Resistance levels: 90.62, 93.75.Support levels: 83.70, 81.25, 78.12.
Jan 24, 2023 Read
Forex analytical forecast for today, January 23, for USDJPY, NZDUSD, Gold & Crude oil
USD/JPY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Forex analytical forecast for today, January 23, for USDJPY, NZDUSD, Gold & Crude oil USDJPY: Dollar recovers lossesThe American currency trades with a moderate growth against the Japanese yen, being at 129.70, continuing an upward dynamic. The previous week resulted in the USDJPY pair demonstrating a mixed positive trend against the background of the weak macroeconomic data block, which left the US dollar unable to move away from the record low of May 2022. Meanwhile, market participants expect the Japanese regulator to take a vector of tighter monetary parameters in the coming 2023 as part of its fight against record inflation. However, the last meeting of officials of the agency could not give a clear signal on the further strategy of financial authorities, and experts predict the resignation of the current chairman of the Central Bank in April, after which the situation can be more predictable.The published data at the end of last week in Japan managed to confirm the trend for further inflation growth. For instance the consumer prices in December had gained 4.0% having risen 3.8% in the previous period against the expected 4.4% while not taking into account the cost of food products and energy resources the correction was 3.0% from 2.8% which was better than the forecasted 2.9%.Resistance levels are at 130.00, 131.00, 132.00 and 133.00.Support levels: 129.00, 128.00, 127.00, 126.34.NZDUSD: The New Zealand currency is developing a bullish momentumDuring morning trading NZDUSD is showing a mixed trend, testing the level of 0.6470.The U.S. dollar was affected by the negative factors caused by the macroeconomic data released a week earlier. Thus, the retail sales disappointed the experts, though Friday's index of the number of secondary housing contracts for December reflected a decrease of 1.5%, having sharply decreased by 7.9% the month before at the estimates of -5.4%. Market participants are analyzing the probable correction of the US Federal Reserve's behavior in the issue of tightening monetary parameters, which may be announced at the end of the February meeting. The published earlier statistics on the consumer price index, which updated the minimum level for October 2021, confirmed the stability of the trend to slowdown, developing a decrease after 8.2% for September, 7.7% for October and 7.1% for November at the June maximum of 9.1%, due to which the analysts forecast the next correction step of only 0.25%, which corresponds to the data of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) FedWatch Tool.Resistance levels: 0.6500, 0.6535, 0.6600 and 0.6650.Support levels: 0.6450, 0.6400, 0.6350 and 0.6288.Gold analysisGold prices reflect moderate strengthening within the framework of consolidation at the level of 1930.00.The precious metal remains attractive to investors because of the high probability of the next U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to adjust the interest rate by only 0.25%, which may signal an early completion of a systematic tightening of monetary policy. According to preliminary data, in early February the key value strengthening will not exceed the 0.25% step, and then the regulator can take a wait-and-see attitude to assess all the decisions made earlier. The ECB (European Central Bank) as well as the Bank of England may take a similar model of behavior if the situation is identical with the recession of price pressure on the economy of these regions. Meanwhile, the consumer inflation rate continues to remain at a record peak, fueling fears on the part of regulators about the onset of economic recession in the euro area.Resistance levels: 1930.00, 1952.53, 1974.22, 2000.00.Support levels: 1915.00, 1900.00, 1886.46, 1869.49.Oil market analysisThe price of benchmark Brent crude oil is testing the 87.00 mark.Oil is recovering moderately due to fundamental news, according to which the market reacted to the comments of the Saudi Arabian government during a briefing at the WEF (World Economic Forum) in Davos. Based on the official statement, the government is actively considering switching to alternative currencies from the "U.S." to pay for goods in international trade. Such a commentary supported the global sentiment of taking away the role of the U.S. dollar as the dominant global currency, which has been observed in recent times, providing a significant incentive for the hydrocarbon market, giving the potential to form more independent pricing factors for raw materials.Resistance levels: 89.30 and 97.70.Support levels: 84.80, 76.70.
Jan 23, 2023 Read
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