Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF and USD/JPY for Monday, June 17, 2024

EUR/TRY: euro is strengthening amid the weak economic situation in TurkeyThe EUR/TRY pair is trading at 37.71 as of October 8, which is 0.66% lower compared to the previous trading session. The instrument shows a decrease against the background of weak economic data from Turkey and increased volatility in global markets. Market participants are assessing the impact of the current macroeconomic situation, including changes in inflation and monetary policy of the Turkish Central Bank.The economic situation in Turkey remains tense, given the high inflation rates and the weakness of the national currency. According to the latest data, the inflation rate in September was 61.5%, which continues to put pressure on the purchasing power of the population and investor confidence in the lira. The central bank of Turkey recently raised the interest rate to 35% in order to combat inflation, which turned out to be higher than analysts' expectations, who had predicted a level of 30-32%. However, despite the tightening of monetary policy, the stability of the Turkish economy remains in question amid political uncertainty and lack of investor confidence in the effectiveness of current measures.The situation in the eurozone also has an impact on the EUR/TRY pair. The latest data on the consumer price index (CPI) showed a slowdown in inflation from 4.2% to 3.8%, which confirms a gradual decrease in price pressure in the region. At the same time, the indicator of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) for September showed a value of 49.1 points, which remains below the level of 50, indicating a continued decline in manufacturing activity. The European Central Bank (ECB) adheres to a cautious approach to changing monetary conditions and, most likely, will not take decisive measures to reduce the rate until the end of the year, which also affects the exchange rate dynamics of the pair.Resistance levels: 38.12, 38.50.Support levels: 37.50, 37.00.USD/JPY: The Central Bank of Japan will keep its tough rhetoric until DecemberThe USD/JPY pair shows restrained dynamics, remaining near the level of 148.00. The day before, the instrument declined moderately, retreating from the local highs set on August 16. This movement became a natural correction after the significant strengthening of the US dollar last week.While the Fed, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank have begun to ease their monetary policies after aggressive tightening cycles to curb inflation, the BOJ's approach remains contrasting. Japan has been struggling with deflation and economic stagnation for a long time. In the second quarter, the national economy showed signs of recovery, helped by an increase in consumer and business spending. In August, core inflation reached 2.8%, rising for the fourth month in a row, and real wages have been rising for two months in a row, which boosted domestic consumption. As a result, companies have begun to shift the increased labor costs, which may create conditions for further rate increases. However, the Bank of Japan warned that many small and medium-sized enterprises are still facing difficulties, unable to provide sufficient profits to index salaries. Analysts do not expect the regulator to raise the rate at the October meeting, but the probability of such a move in December increases, provided that stable economic indicators remain.Today, the market's attention is focused on data from Japan. In August, wage growth slowed to 3.0% from the previous 3.4%, while a decrease to 3.1% was expected. Household spending decreased by 1.9%, while in July the indicator increased by 0.1%, against the forecast of -2.6%. The index of the current situation from Eco Watchers in September decreased from 49.0 to 47.8 points, and the index of forecasts — from 50.3 to 49.7 points.Resistance levels: 148.21, 149.50, 150.50, 151.50.Support levels: 147.00, 146.00, 145.00, 144.00.Gold market analysisGold (XAU/USD) shows mixed dynamics, consolidating near the level of 2640.00. Market activity remains moderate as investors continue to analyze the September report on the U.S. labor market, published last Friday.The number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector increased by 254.0 thousand, compared with the previous growth of 159.0 thousand, while expectations were at the level of 140.0 thousand. The average hourly wage rose from 3.9% to 4.0% in annual terms, which is higher than the forecast of 3.8%, while the monthly change showed a slowdown from 0.5% to 0.4%, which is slightly higher than expectations of 0.3%. The unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%. In general, these data confirm the stability of the American economy, allowing the Federal Reserve System to take its time with further monetary policy easing. At the same time, the market assumes that the Fed may cut the rate by 25 basis points in November and December of this year.Additionally, the demand for gold is supported by the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. After Iran launched a massive missile strike on Israeli territory, the country's military and political leadership promised retaliatory actions. This has increased tensions in the region and contributes to maintaining XAU/USD quotes at current levels.Resistance levels: 2655.00, 2670.00, 2685.56, 2700.00.Support levels: 2640.00, 2623.84, 2613.83, 2600.00.Oil market analysisIn the Asian session, Brent crude oil prices are showing a pullback from the maximum reached on August 13 at 81.00, and are testing the 79.35 level for a downward breakdown in anticipation of new drivers for further movement.Today, information from China put pressure on the quotes. At the briefing of the State Committee for Development and Reform (NDRC), investors did not receive specific incentives and support measures. Representatives of the committee expressed confidence that the country's economy will continue to recover and achieve its goals. However, the lack of concrete steps raised doubts among market participants about the sustainability of the current rally, as many expected more detailed actions from Beijing.Prior to that, oil prices recovered at the fastest pace in the last two years, amid increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Analysts at Clearview Energy Partners LLC presented several possible scenarios in an interview with Bloomberg. In the event of the imposition of economic sanctions against Iran by the United States and its allies for missile attacks on Israel, oil may rise in price by $ 7.0 per barrel. In the case of retaliatory actions with damage to Iranian energy facilities, prices may rise by another $13.0. In addition, if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked — the most important route for transporting about 30% of the world's raw materials — the cost is expected to rise to $ 13.0–$28.0 per barrel.Resistance levels: 80.00, 81.00, 82.00, 83.14.Support levels: 79.00, 77.86, 77.00, 76.05.

EUR/USD: The ECB is considering a rate cut on October 17thThe EUR/USD pair is at 1.0968. Although recent macroeconomic indicators from the eurozone have looked relatively stable, the European currency is showing a downward trend.The number of representatives of the European Central Bank (ECB) supporting President Christine Lagarde's policy of further lowering interest rates continues to grow. In particular, Mario Centeno, a member of the Board of Governors, noted that the labor market is significantly weakening, which may affect the level of investment and slow economic growth below normal. He added that the number of open vacancies decreased by 20% compared to two years ago, and the number of new employees fell by 10% compared to the maximum of the second quarter of 2022. Nevertheless, he stressed that inflation is under control, and regulators will strive to keep it at the target level of 2%. His colleague Francois Villeroy de Galot also confirmed the possibility of easing monetary policy, saying that the expected slowdown in inflation makes an interest rate adjustment at the October 17 meeting almost inevitable, although questions remain about its size. Important comments on this issue are expected to be made today when ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane and Executive Board member Piero Cipollone speak. Rate changes may amount to more than 25 basis points, which in the short term will create pressure on the euro.On Monday, investors expect the release of statistics on retail sales in the eurozone for August: forecasts suggest a slight increase from 0.1% to 0.2%. At the same time, market participants' attention is focused on data on production orders in Germany, which fell by 5.8% in August after rising by 3.9% in the previous month, while expectations were at the level of a reduction of only 2%.Resistance levels: 1.1010, 1.1120.Support levels: 1.0950, 1.0830.USD/CHF: the unemployment rate in Switzerland rose to 2.6% in SeptemberIn the Asian session, the USD/CHF currency pair shows a slight decline, deviating from the highs set on August 20, which were updated last week thanks to the support of American economic statistics.By the end of September, the unemployment rate in Switzerland increased from 2.5% to 2.6%, which came as a surprise to the market, which did not expect changes or predicted only a slight decrease. At the same time, the consumer price index decreased from 1.1% to 0.8% in annual terms and by 0.3% compared to zero in August, which increases the likelihood that the Swiss National Bank will again decide to reduce the already low interest rate. However, on Tuesday, the head of the regulator, Martin Schlegel, noted that inflation in the country is supported by rising prices for services and rent. In addition, wage growth remains below the upper limit of the central bank's inflation target range, set at 0.0–2.0%.Resistance levels: 0.8600, 0.8630, 0.8673, 0.8700.Support levels: 0.8570, 0.8541, 0.8517, 0.8500.USD/CAD: bulls are developing a positive trend for the US dollarThe USD/CAD pair is showing moderate growth, developing the "bullish" trend established last week: quotes are testing the level of 1.3585, being near the local highs of September 19.The US dollar is significantly supported by the September labor market report published on Friday. The number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector increased by 254.0 thousand, which is significantly higher than the previous value of 159.0 thousand. Analysts expected an increase of only 140.0 thousand. The average hourly wage rose from 3.9% to 4.0% in annual terms, exceeding the forecast of 3.8%, although the indicator slowed from 0.5% to 0.4% on a monthly basis. The unemployment rate also fell from 4.2% to 4.1%. It is worth noting that according to the instrument of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in November is now less than 30.0%, while the week before last, before the speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, this figure exceeded 60.0%.At the end of the week, a report on the Canadian labor market is expected to be published: employment is projected to grow from 22.1 thousand to 34.5 thousand, the average hourly wage will remain in the range of 4.9–5.0% and the unemployment rate at 6.6%. The head of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, announced his intention to expand the Board of Governors from six to seven members, introducing a new position of an external employee who will participate in voting on interest rate adjustments. This step is aimed at taking into account the difficult economic situation and will add new views and skills to the work of the regulator.Resistance levels: 1.3600, 1.3622, 1.3650, 1.3675.Support levels: 1.3569, 1.3550, 1.3524, 1.3500.NZD/USD: the rate is expected to decrease by 50 basis points from the RBNZThe NZD/USD pair is showing moderate growth, correcting after a sharp decline last week, which led to an update of local lows since September 12. Quotes are currently testing the 0.6160 level for the possibility of an upward breakdown, while the macroeconomic situation remains fairly stable.Experts suggest that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may reduce interest rates by 50 basis points to 4.75% at its meeting on October 9. Despite the lack of fresh inflation data, the July figures showed a more significant decrease than expected, amounting to 3.3%. At the same time, the base index exceeded the forecast of 5.4%. The decline in economic activity continues to put pressure on the regulator, pushing for an early approach of interest rates to the target 3.00%, according to analysts at ING Research. The latest RBNZ estimates suggest that the consumer price index will be 2.3%, and the base index will be 5.1% in the third quarter.Resistance levels: 0.6177, 0.6200, 0.6221, 0.6254.Support levels: 0.6145, 0.6124, 0.6100, 0.6085.

EUR/GBP: the drop in business activity in the eurozone puts pressure on the euroThe EUR/GBP pair is near the 0.8550 level as of October 3, showing a slight correction after the recent rise. This value reflects the sideways movement of the pair, which is 0.1% less than in the previous trading session. During the current session, quotes are being adjusted against the background of weak data from the eurozone and the UK, but there is still potential for further growth if the pair holds above the key support level of 0.8550.The economic situation in the eurozone remains difficult. Published data on the business activity index (PMI) in September showed a drop in the manufacturing sector to 43.4 points, which is lower than the forecast of 43.6 points. This reinforces expectations of a possible further easing of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), especially in the context of persistent inflation. It is expected that the ECB may lower the interest rate by the end of the year if economic activity does not recover. Retail sales data for August will be published in the eurozone today at 11:00 (GMT+2), which is expected to show a decrease of 0.5% compared to the previous month. These data may increase pressure on the ECB in light of a possible easing of monetary policy. In addition, at 12:30 (GMT+2), the index of business activity in the German construction sector for September will be published, the projected value is 45.5 points, which indicates a decrease in activity in the sector.The situation in the UK also does not contribute to the strengthening of the pound. The latest GDP data for the third quarter showed a slowdown in growth to 0.2%, which is below expectations. Inflation remains above the target level of 4.6%, which forces the Bank of England to keep high interest rates at 5.25%, despite the slowdown in the economy. Investors expect a decision on rates in the coming months, which could have a significant impact on the EUR/GBP pair. Tomorrow at 09:00 (GMT+2), data on industrial production for August will be presented in the UK. A decrease of 0.1% is expected compared to the previous month, which may put pressure on the pound. At 10:00 (GMT+2), the GfK consumer confidence index for October will be released, the indicator is expected to improve from -25 to -23 points.Resistance levels: 0.8600, 0.8650.Support levels: 0.8550, 0.8500.NZD/USD: housing prices in New Zealand continue to fallThe NZD/USD pair is showing a noticeable decline, developing a powerful "bearish" momentum that began at the beginning of the week: the instrument is approaching the 0.6235 mark, trying to overcome it amid expectations of new factors for movement.Statistics from New Zealand have not yet had a significant impact on the pair's behavior: the published ANZ commodity price index fell from 2.1% to 1.8% in September, which may increase pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on the issue of possible monetary policy easing. Earlier in the week, investors' attention was focused on the data on business optimism: the indicator rose from 50.6 to 60.9 points, and the forecast of business activity from the National Bank increased from 37.1% to 45.3%. The real estate market continues to decline in prices, which has been going on for seven months, although the rate of decline has slowed: prices fell by only 0.5%, due to a decrease in mortgage rates, as reported by CoreLogic NZ. Such dynamics indicate a decrease in purchasing power against the background of an economic slowdown and rising unemployment, which negatively affects household incomes. The situation may change if, at the upcoming meeting on October 9, the Reserve Bank continues to adhere to the "dovish" course, which has already led to a decrease in the average two-year mortgage rate below 6.0%.Resistance levels: 0.6254, 0.6280, 0.6300, 0.6330.Support levels: 0.6221, 0.6200, 0.6177, 0.6158.USD/JPY: Dollar strengthens, updating local peaksThe USD/JPY pair remains near the 146.60 mark, having reached new local highs since August 20 against the background of the release of American macroeconomic statistics. According to a report by Automatic Data Processing (ADP), in September, the employment rate in the private sector increased from 103.0 thousand to 143.0 thousand, surpassing the forecasts of analysts who expected an increase of 120.0 thousand jobs. Tomorrow at 14:30 (GMT+2), the final data on the US labor market for September will be published, where it is expected that the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector will remain at the level of 140.0 thousand. The average annual hourly wage growth is projected at 3.8%, and the monthly figure may slow slightly from 0.4% to 0.3%, which may indicate a decrease in inflationary pressure. The unemployment rate is expected to remain around 4.2%.The yen is under pressure from recent statistics from Japan. In September, the manufacturing business activity index from Jibun Bank fell from 53.9 to 53.1 points, contrary to analysts' expectations of maintaining the previous level. The head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, noted that the regulator will closely monitor volatility in the markets before making decisions on monetary policy. He stressed that the economic prospects for the United States and the world remain uncertain, and markets are unstable, but inflation is gradually approaching the target level of 2.0%. At the same time, Ueda did not rule out the possibility of an interest rate increase if the economic dynamics and inflation forecasts are confirmed. At the same time, the new Prime Minister of Japan, Shigeru Ishiba, spoke out against raising rates in the current conditions. Japanese Economy Minister Resi Akazawa also called for caution when adjusting policy parameters, noting that current rates at 0.25% are below world standards and that efforts should be aimed at combating deflation.Resistance levels: 147.00, 148.21, 149.50, 150.50.Support levels: 146.00, 145.00, 144.00, 143.35.AUD/USD: weak indicators of exports and services put pressure on the Australian dollarThe AUD/USD pair shows a corrective movement, trading near the level of 0.6860 against the background of strengthening the position of the US dollar.The Australian currency weakened after the release of disappointing macroeconomic data. Exports decreased from 0.3% to -0.2%, while imports decreased from -0.6% to -0.2%, which led to a slight change in the trade balance from 5.636 billion to 5.644 billion Australian dollars. The index of business activity in the service sector in September fell from 52.5 to 50.5 points, which turned out to be worse than the predicted value of 50.6 points.Earlier, the attention of market participants was attracted by data from American International Group Inc. (AIG) on the state of business activity in key sectors of the Australian economy. Despite the fact that the indicator in the construction industry improved from -38.1 to -19.8 points, it remains in the negative zone, which signals ongoing difficulties in the economy. In the manufacturing sector, the situation also worsened: the index fell from -30.8 to -33.6 points, indicating continuing problems amid the long-term policy of tightening monetary conditions pursued by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Thus, the current economic data is putting pressure on the Australian dollar, while the US dollar is receiving support due to strong domestic indicators.Resistance levels: 0.6904, 0.7000.Support levels: 0.6852, 0.6751.

USD/CHF: Swiss regulator expects further decrease in inflationThe USD/CHF pair shows a multidirectional movement, remaining near the 0.8450 level: the exchange rate is being adjusted after a two-day rise, which allowed the US dollar to move away from local lows recorded on September 18.The franc is supported by the latest macroeconomic indicators: the business activity index calculated by the Association of Supply Managers (SVME) rose in September from 49.0 to 49.9 points, exceeding the projected 48.2 points. Retail sales are also growing in Switzerland: in August, this figure increased from 2.9% to 3.2%, with expectations at 2.6%. Inflation statistics for September will be published tomorrow at 08:30 (GMT+2), and experts predict that annual inflation will remain at 1.1%. In his first speech, the new head of the Swiss National Bank, Martin Schlegel, noted that the regulator positively assesses the prospects for further reduction in inflation, which slowed to 1.1% in August and remains in the target range of 0.0-2.0% over the past 15 months. According to forecasts of 85.0% of analysts, at the December meeting, the regulator will raise the interest rate to 0.75%.Resistance levels: 0.8481, 0.8500, 0.8517, 0.8541.Support levels: 0.8450, 0.8429, 0.8400, 0.8365.USD/CAD: pair stabilizes in anticipation of market catalystsDuring Asian trading, the USD/CAD pair shows heterogeneous fluctuations, remaining around the 1.3490 mark.The Canadian labor market report at the end of the week is not expected, which narrows investors' attention to macroeconomic statistics. Earlier, traders drew attention to the growth of the index of business activity in the Canadian manufacturing sector from S&P Global, which increased from 49.5 to 50.4 points in September. At the same time, the similar American ISM index in the manufacturing sector remained at 47.2 points over the same period, which did not meet expectations of its growth to 47.5 points. As noted by Douglas Porter, chief economist at the Bank of Montreal, Canada's real GDP in the third quarter showed growth of less than 1.5%, which is lower than last year's figures and indicates a slowdown in the economy. Porter added that such a slowdown could ease inflationary pressures, which reached the 2.0% target in August. The Bank of Canada has carried out three interest rate cuts since June, and fresh macro data reinforces the likelihood of a sharper 50 basis point cut. However, employment data remains a key factor for the regulator.Resistance levels: 1.3500, 1.3524, 1.3550, 1.3582.Support levels: 1.3475, 1.3457, 1.3440, 1.3419.USDX: market reacts to the speech of the head of the Fed at the NABE meetingThe USDX index shows multidirectional fluctuations, remaining near the 101.00 level and waiting for new factors that can affect its dynamics. At the beginning of the week, the US dollar showed strong growth, which was due to a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.In his speech, Powell noted that the Fed is considering further easing of monetary policy by the end of the year, proposing a gradual reduction in interest rates by 25 basis points per meeting. He also stressed that the 3.0% GDP growth in the second quarter is a good indicator for maintaining a stable level of consumer spending. However, further actions by the regulator will depend on incoming economic data, and if pressure on the labor market increases, the Fed may reconsider its position towards more significant easing.The dollar was also supported by data on the number of JOLTS vacancies: in August, this figure rose to 8,040 million, exceeding the forecast of 7,655 million. On Friday, the final report on the labor market for September will be published, and the number of new jobs is projected to decrease to 140.0 thousand. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2% and hourly wage growth is expected to slow to 0.3% on a monthly basis. Today, investors' attention will be focused on ADP's private sector employment data for September, where an increase from 99.0 thousand to 120.0 thousand jobs is expected.Resistance levels: 101.20, 101.67, 102.00, 102.23.Support levels: 100.80, 100.35, 100.00, 99.50.Gold market analysisYesterday, gold in the XAU/USD pair rose by 1.18%, reaching the level of 2663.37. This rise was caused by the news of Iran's attack on Israel, which was a response to the elimination of the leaders of the Hezbollah and Hamas groups. Against the background of increased geopolitical tensions, gold may test the historical maximum of 2685.00. However, in case of a decrease in tension, a correction and a decrease in the value of the asset are likely. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said that Tehran had completed a retaliatory operation, but threatened more serious actions in case of new provocations, to which Israel promised a tough response.Gold continues to show a confident upward trend. According to a report by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week the volume of net speculative positions in gold reached 315.4 thousand, which is higher than the previous figure of 310.1 thousand. The number of open transactions on the asset is at a four-year high. The balance of the bulls amounted to 282,912 thousand contracts, while the bears had only 28,071 thousand. Last week, buyers opened 9.616 thousand contracts, while sellers opened 7,404 thousand, which indicates high interest from investors.Resistance levels: 2685.00, 2750.00.Support levels: 2546.00, 2471.00, 2378.00.

EUR/USD: flat amid expectations of September inflation in the eurozoneThe EUR/USD pair is showing a recovery after yesterday's decline, when quotes updated local lows from September 24. At the moment, the pair is testing the 1.1140 level, trying to break it up, amid expectations of the publication of key macroeconomic data.Analysts' forecasts remain restrained: the index of business activity in the eurozone manufacturing sector from S&P Global is likely to remain at 44.8 points, and the German index may remain at 40.3 points. Inflation data for September is expected to be published at 11:00 (GMT+2). Annual price growth is projected to slow from 2.2% to 1.9%, while core inflation, excluding volatile components, is likely to remain at 2.8%. Falling inflation may become an additional argument in favor of easing the ECB's monetary policy, and it is predicted that the bank may reduce the interest rate by 0.25% next month. Previously, it was thought that the regulator would wait until December, but the latest data may accelerate its actions.Against the background of German data published yesterday, it became known that the consumer price index decreased from 1.9% to 1.6% in annual terms, and monthly inflation remained at 0.0%, which somewhat disappointed market expectations. At the same time, in the United States, the Chicago business activity index rose to 46.6 points, although it remained below 50, indicating a slowdown in growth.Resistance levels: 1.1150, 1.1200, 1.1243, 1.1300.Support levels: 1.1100, 1.1050, 1.1000, 1.0964.GBP/USD: the former head of the Bank of England pointed to the reason for the increase in inflationThe GBP/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, remaining near the 1.3375 mark. Despite the publication of important macroeconomic statistics from the UK and the USA, market activity remains subdued.Investors were closely watching the UK GDP data for the second quarter. In annual terms, the growth rate decreased from 0.9% to 0.7%, and the quarterly dynamics slowed from 0.6% to 0.5%. These weak indicators may prompt the Bank of England to further ease monetary policy, especially against the background of the fact that the US Federal Reserve already cut the rate by 50 basis points in September.Additional pressure on the pound was exerted by a drop in the retail price index of the British Consortium of Retailers (BRC), which fell by 0.6% in September after a previous decrease of 0.3%. Today, the attention of market participants will be focused on the release of data on business activity in the manufacturing sector from S&P Global, which is expected to amount to 51.5 points. Investors are also studying the statement of the former head of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, who stressed that the delay in tightening monetary policy contributed to a sharp increase in inflation in the country. However, in his opinion, the current situation has stabilized, which will allow controlling the growth of consumer prices in the future.Resistance levels: 1.3435, 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3600.Support levels: 1.3340, 1.3300, 1.3250, 1.3200.AUD/NZD: Australian retail sales may strengthen the dollar's positionThe AUD/NZD pair is at 1.0938 as of the trading session on October 1. This reflects a slight decrease of about 0.32% compared to the previous session. Market participants expect that quotes will continue to fluctuate against the background of the publication of economic data from Australia and New Zealand.The situation in Australia continues to put pressure on the AUD rate. The recent statement of support for the economy of China, which is Australia's largest trading partner, had a positive impact on the Australian dollar. Nevertheless, despite a slight improvement in the Chinese Business Activity Index (PMI), the Chinese economy still faces slowdown risks, which may have a restraining effect on Australian exports. In the Australian domestic market, important data on retail sales and construction permits are expected to be released, which, according to forecasts, may indicate a slowdown in activity in these sectors. Retail sales data for September will be published in Australia today, October 1, at 11:30 (GMT+2). Economists forecast an increase of 0.3% compared to the previous month, which may reflect the sustainability of consumer spending, despite the recent increase in interest rates. At the same time, data on construction permits will be released, where a decrease of 2.5% on a monthly basis is expected, indicating a slowdown in activity in the construction industry.On the other hand, the New Zealand economy is showing mixed results. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has completed a cycle of rate hikes, leaving them at 5.5%. This has eased the pressure of inflation, but GDP growth remains low and recession risks persist. As a result, currency traders are considering lowering rates in the coming months, which could weaken the NZD. Nevertheless, interest in the New Zealand dollar remains on the background of its high interest rate and attractiveness to investors. Tomorrow, October 2, at 00:45 (GMT+2), New Zealand will publish the NZIER Business Confidence index for the third quarter of 2024. Analysts expect an improvement in the indicator after a significant decline in the previous quarter, which may indicate a recovery in business activity. Also at 04:00 (GMT+2), data on export and import prices will be released, which will give a more complete picture of the country's trade balance.Resistance levels: 1.0850, 1.0940.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0720.Gold analysisGold is trading at $2,643.50 per ounce as of October 1, showing an increase of 0.36% compared to the previous session. The price of gold has stabilized in the range of 2624-2666 USD, continuing to hold positions due to continuing geopolitical risks and expectations of a softer monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve System (Fed). If the price overcomes the level of 2670 USD, it is possible to move to the level of 2700 USD, however, if it drops below 2623 USD, a rollback to 2600 USD is likely.The economic situation in the United States remains an important factor for gold prices. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 0.75–1% in 2024, which will make gold a more attractive asset for investors. The publication of the ISM manufacturing business activity index for September today at 18:00 (GMT+2) is expected to reach 47.6 points, which is below the threshold of 50, signaling a reduction in production activity. Additional attention will be paid to the data on the number of open vacancies (JOLTS), which will also be released at 18:00 and will amount to 7.64 million, which may have an impact on the dollar and, accordingly, on the dynamics of gold.Geopolitical risks continue to support gold prices. The intensification of the conflict in the Middle East, as well as strained relations between Russia and Western countries, create additional incentives for investors to choose gold as a safe asset. These events, together with changes in monetary policy and the weakening of the dollar, may continue to support the growth of gold prices in the coming months.Resistance levels: 2660, 2686, 2700.Support levels: 2623, 2600, 2578.

EUR/TRY: inflation in Turkey remains high, the lira is losing groundThe EUR/TRY pair is trading around 38.23 on the morning of September 25, showing an increase of 0.03% compared to the previous session. This is due to investors' expectations regarding the decisions of the European Central Bank and monetary policy in Turkey. The lira continues to be under pressure due to macroeconomic instability and high inflation in Turkey.The economic situation in Turkey remains difficult: inflation in the country slowed to 51.97% in August, but these are still high values that negatively affect consumer demand and overall economic activity. The Turkish Central Bank maintains a policy of tough rate hikes to combat inflation, which has led to an increase in the cost of borrowing to 30%. However, investors are still concerned about the prospects of a further slowdown in economic growth in the country.On the part of the eurozone, the continued weakening of economic activity is putting pressure on the euro. The business activity indices (PMI) for the eurozone showed values below 50 points (48.9), which indicates a decrease in activity in key sectors of the economy. Inflation also remains above target, which limits the European Central Bank's ability to quickly ease monetary policy.Resistance levels: 38.50, 38.75.Support levels: 37.85, 37.60.GBP/JPY: economic data from the UK and Japan are holding back growthThe GBP/JPY pair is trading at 183.75 on September 25, showing slight losses after a 2% increase in the previous three days. The current consolidation is related to expectations of important economic data from the UK and Japan. The pair declined by 0.12% compared to the last session, which is due to a correction after a recent rise.The economic situation in the UK remains ambiguous. The latest data on the labor market show a decrease in the number of vacancies, but the employment rate remains relatively stable. Inflation in the country is still above the target level of the Bank of England, which forces investors to take into account the likelihood of further tightening of monetary policy. In the latest report on the consumer price index (CPI), inflation reached 6.7%, which supports expectations of further rate increases.In Japan, the market remains under pressure due to the slowdown in the economy. The index of business activity in the service sector (PMI) fell to 50.5 points, indicating stagnation. At the same time, the Bank of Japan maintains extremely low interest rates to stimulate the economy, which makes the yen weaker against the pound. In addition, the market is awaiting a report on the consumer price index in Japan, which may have a further impact on the country's monetary policy.Resistance levels: 184.20, 185.00.Support levels: 182.50, 181.80.AUD/NZD: New Zealand dollar weakens amid slowing domestic demandThe AUD/NZD pair was trading around 1.0890 on the morning of September 25, showing an increase of 0.17% compared to the previous trading session. This growth was supported by the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to leave interest rates at the current level, which strengthened the Australian dollar. Meanwhile, the weakness of the New Zealand economy and the expected decline in export demand due to domestic economic difficulties are putting pressure on the New Zealand dollar.The Australian economy continues to receive support from Chinese incentives. In particular, China's recent measures to reduce the reserve rate for banks by 0.50% have freed up about $142 billion for lending, which has led to increased demand for Australian goods such as iron ore and coal. This had a positive impact on the AUD rate. Moreover, the RBA hinted that a rate cut is unlikely in the near future, despite the slowdown in economic growth.On the other hand, the New Zealand economy is facing a slowdown in growth. Inflation in the country is expected to remain high despite measures to contain it, which puts pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to take further action on rates. Moreover, the latest data on domestic demand in New Zealand also show a weakening, which contributes to the depreciation of the New Zealand dollar.Resistance levels: 1.0910, 1.0940.Support levels: 1.0850, 1.0820.Crude Oil market analysisAs of September 25, the price of WTI crude oil is trading at $81.46 per barrel, which shows a slight decrease of 0.24% compared to the previous trading session. This decrease is due to market adjustments after a sharp rise in prices in previous weeks amid expectations of supply cuts and uncertainty amid OPEC+ actions.The economic situation in the United States and China continues to have a significant impact on world oil prices. In the United States, the latest publication of data on oil reserves showed an increase, which led to a decrease in expectations about the shortage of supply in the market. Meanwhile, in China, a slowdown in economic growth is holding back demand for oil, despite government incentives. China's recent measures to reduce bank reserves to stimulate lending, including in the industrial sector, may temporarily support demand for commodities.In addition, market participants are closely monitoring the upcoming data on the personal consumer spending index (PCE) in the United States, which may have an impact on market sentiment and the future dynamics of the dollar, which, in turn, may affect oil prices. A stronger dollar usually puts pressure on commodity markets, making oil more expensive for foreign buyers.Resistance levels: $82.50 and $84.00.Support levels: $80.00 and $78.75.

EUR/USD: inflation in the eurozone has fallen to a three-year lowDuring the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair shows a steady strengthening, rising to the 1.1165 mark and trying to gain a foothold above it.This week, investors' attention was focused on inflation data in the eurozone. In August, the consumer price index rose by 2.2% year-on-year, which was the lowest since July 2021. On a monthly basis, inflation growth slowed from 0.2% to 0.1%. Core inflation increased by 2.8% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, indicating continued pressure on prices. These figures confirm that inflation remains above the ECB's 2% target, despite some positive dynamics. The lowest inflation rates were observed in Lithuania (0.8%), Latvia (0.9%) and Ireland (1.1%), and the highest in Romania (5.3%) and Belgium (4.3%). The main factor in the increase in inflation was services, which rose by 1.88 percentage points, as well as food, energy and tobacco products, which added 0.46 percentage points. The ECB previously predicted that inflation could increase again in the second half of 2024, as the impact of fluctuations in energy prices gradually decreases. The bank expects inflation to reach 2.5% by 2024, and 2.2% and 1.9% in 2025 and 2026, respectively. The next ECB meeting is scheduled for October 17, and market participants assume that another reduction in interest rates may follow before the end of the year to maintain economic activity.Support levels: 1.1130, 1.1000.Resistance levels: 1.1200, 1.1330.GBP/USD: the Bank of England rate is fixed at 5.00%During the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair shows an upward movement, trading around the 1.3295 mark, which is facilitated by the market reaction to the results of the Bank of England meeting.The day before, eight of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep the key interest rate at 5.00%. Recall that in August, the regulator lowered the rate from a 16-year high. The head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, noted that inflationary pressure is easing, and the country's economic dynamics remains within expectations, which gave rise to forecasts of a possible rate cut in November. Bailey stressed the importance of a "gradual" approach to monetary policy easing to avoid a negative impact on the economy. The latest statistics in August turned out to be ambiguous. The consumer price index rose to 0.3% from 0.2%, maintaining annual dynamics at 2.2%. Core inflation increased to 3.6%, exceeding forecasts of 3.5%. However, the retail price index slowed from 3.6% to 3.4% year-on-year, although the monthly figure increased from 0.1% to 0.6%. Economists also note a decrease in activity in the country: GDP has not shown growth for the second month in a row, while an increase of 0.2% was expected. In addition, industrial production decreased by 1.2% year-on-year, which is lower than the previous indicator of -1.4% and significantly worse than forecasts of -0.2%. On a monthly basis, the indicator fell by 0.8% after a similar increase in June.Support levels: 1.3240, 1.3040.Resistance levels: 1.3350, 1.3570.USD/CHF: SECO forecasts a slowdown in the Swiss economyAfter a significant decline in August, the USD/CHF pair remains in the correction phase, trading at 0.8466. The Swiss franc remains stable, but its further growth is limited against the background of weak economic data.Yesterday, the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) published an updated forecast for the development of the national economy. It is estimated that in 2024 the growth rate will remain below average and will amount to 1.2%. In 2025, a gradual increase to 1.6% is projected, which is slightly lower than the previous estimate of 1.7%. The main driver of growth will be increased consumer demand, and inflation will decrease to 1.2%, which is a more optimistic forecast compared to previous calculations of 1.4%. In 2025, the price growth rate is expected to be 0.7%, which is also better than the previous forecast of 1.1%. Experts expect the labor market to strengthen, but the unemployment rate is likely to remain at 2.4% until the end of this year.Resistance levels: 0.8510, 0.8630.Support levels: 0.8430, 0.8330.AUD/USD: the Australian labor market has strengthened AUD's positionThe AUD/USD pair is showing an upward correction, trading at 0.6816. The Australian dollar is showing moderate growth, supported by positive labor market statistics.According to data for August, the number of unemployed decreased by 10 thousand, and employment increased by 47 thousand, which allowed keeping the unemployment rate at 4.2%. The share of the economically active population reached a record high of 67.1%, and the employment-to-population ratio rose to 64.3%, which is almost equal to the historical maximum of 64.4% recorded in November 2023. Such indicators indicate a high demand for jobs, despite the limited number of vacancies, which hinders the more active development of the employment sector. Meanwhile, the index of leading indicators from the University of Melbourne remains at 0.0% for the second month in a row, indicating uncertainty in the economy. The Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy meeting is scheduled for September 24, when the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions will already be known. At the same time, analysts suggest that Australian officials may refrain from changing the current rate at this meeting.Resistance levels: 0.6850, 0.6950.Support levels: 0.6790, 0.6690.

EUR/USD: movement below the resistance line of the channel 1.1260–1.0950The EUR/USD pair maintains an uptrend, trading at 1.1115, and updates the lows of September 13 against the background of high volatility after the announcement of the decision of the US Federal Reserve on monetary policy.Despite stable macroeconomic indicators in the eurozone, the euro is showing a corrective movement, trying to return to growth. In August, the consumer price index in the region increased by only 0.1%, which led to a slowdown in annual inflation from 2.6% to 2.2%. Core inflation also fell from 2.9% to 2.8%, which supported the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut the interest rate by 60 basis points to 3.65%. Nevertheless, with inflation above 2.2%, the risks to the economy remain.The US dollar is near an annual low, trading at 100.70 on the USDX index. Yesterday, the Fed representatives reduced the cost of borrowing by 50 basis points to 4.75–5.00%, which coincided with the expectations of most analysts. The decision was supported by positive data on the real estate market: the number of construction permits issued in August increased from 1.406 million to 1.475 million, and the volume of construction of new homes increased from 1.237 million to 1.356 million, indicating a retreat from historical lows. The Fed also revised the forecast for the unemployment rate for 2024 from 4.0% to 4.4%, and for 2025 from 4.2% to 4.4%. Experts expect another interest rate cut before the end of the year, most likely in December, to give the regulator time to assess the impact of the measures already taken.Resistance levels: 1.1150, 1.1260.Support levels: 1.1090, 1.1000.GBP/USD: attempt to break through the 1.3258 levelThe GBP/USD pair is holding near the 1.3259 level after the announcement of the results of the US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.The Bank of England's monetary policy decision is expected to be published today at 13:00 (GMT+2). Experts assume that the interest rate will remain at 5.00%. However, if the statements of the representatives of the Bank of England turn out to be "hawkish", this may give the pound additional support. Investors' attention is also focused on the recent UK inflation data for August. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.3% after a decrease of -0.2% in the previous month, maintaining the annual rate at 2.2%. The core CPI index accelerated to 3.6%, which exceeded market expectations of 3.5%. The retail price index (RPI) also showed an increase — from 0.1% to 0.6% on a monthly basis, and slightly adjusted to 3.5% on an annual basis.The long-term trend for GBP/USD remains upward. After reaching a maximum in the area of 1.3258 in August, the pair went into a downward correction, which stopped at the support level of 1.3005. A new upward movement began from this point, and the August maximum was updated yesterday. If the pair can gain a foothold above the resistance of 1.3258, further growth is likely with a target at 1.3400. A breakdown of this mark will open the way to the February 2022 maximum around 1.3630. If the pair does not overcome the 1.3258 level, we can expect a downward correction with the first target at 1.3605. If the price falls below this mark, a deeper decline to the support of 1.2857 is possible.Resistance levels: 1.3258, 1.3400, 1.3630.Support levels: 1.3005, 1.2857, 1.2680.AUD/USD: RBA announced a three-year project on wholesale digital currenciesThe AUD/USD pair is showing steady growth, continuing to form a steady "bullish" momentum in the short term. Quotes are trying to overcome the level of 0.6800, which previously could not be fixed. The pair was supported by the decision of the US Federal Reserve System to reduce the interest rate by 50 basis points, which was the first such step since 2020. Additionally, the Fed revised down its inflation forecasts, reinforcing expectations of further monetary policy easing by the end of the year. However, the market reaction was restrained, as participants had already taken into account the results of the September meeting at current prices. Today at 14:30 (GMT+2), the market's attention will be focused on statistics on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States: it is expected that the number of initial applications will remain at 230 thousand, and repeat applications by 1.85 million.The Australian dollar is strengthening on the back of labor market data for August. The number of employees increased by 47.5 thousand, exceeding the forecasts of analysts who expected an increase of 25 thousand. At the same time, the indicator of full employment decreased by 3.1 thousand, and part-time employment increased by 50.6 thousand, leveling out the decrease last month. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, which was in line with expectations.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has launched a three-year program to develop a wholesale digital currency. After analyzing the limitations and benefits of a retail CBDC designed for mass use, the RBA decided to focus on the wholesale application of digital currency. The project aims to explore new applications, operational models and the impact of digital currency on the Australian financial system. The regulator suggests that wholesale CBDC can significantly improve the efficiency and sustainability of markets by reducing operational risks and reducing the costs associated with mediation.Resistance levels: 0.6800, 0.6825, 0.6850, 0.6900.Support levels: 0.6775, 0.6750, 0.6732, 0.6700.USDX: Dollar index shows mixed dynamicsThe USDX index is near the 100.85 mark, demonstrating high trading activity, which is associated with the recent decision of the US Federal Reserve on monetary policy.For the first time since 2020, the Fed lowered the interest rate by 50 basis points, bringing it to 5.00%. This decision was in line with market expectations, although until the last moment investors doubted whether the regulator would decide on such a significant reduction, given the current inflation risks. Previously, rates were in the range of 5.25–5.50% from July 2023 — this is the highest level since 2001. The Fed has been closely monitoring economic indicators, aiming to bring inflation closer to the target level of 2.0%. In addition, the regulator revised GDP growth forecasts: for 2024, they were reduced from 2.1% to 2.0%, while expectations for 2025 remained at 2.0%. Inflation estimates have been adjusted downward: this year the forecast decreased from 2.6% to 2.3%, and next year — from 2.3% to 2.1%. The forecasts also reflect a possible deterioration in the labor market situation — the unemployment rate in 2024 was revised from 4.0% to 4.4%, and in 2025 — from 4.2% to 4.4%. The median forecast of FOMC members suggests that by the end of 2024, the interest rate may decrease to 4.38%, and by the end of 2025 to 3.38%. However, according to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, further decisions will be made taking into account incoming macroeconomic data.Resistance levels: 100.80, 101.20, 101.67, 102.00.Support levels: 100.35, 100.00, 99.50, 99.00.