EUR/USD: analysts' expectations on the EU economy have not been met
The EUR/USD exchange rate is falling against the background of the weakening of the US dollar, reaching the level of 1.0832.
Macroeconomic data did not confirm expectations, putting pressure on the euro: in July, the business activity index in the French manufacturing sector fell to 44.1 from the expected 45.4, and in Germany to 42.6 against the forecast of 43.5, which led to a decrease in the EU composite index from 45.8 to 45.6. In the French services sector, the indicator improved from 49.6 to 50.7, while in Germany it decreased from 53.1 to 52.0, which eventually lowered the pan-European index to 51.9.
- Resistance levels: 1.0870, 1.0950.
- Support levels: 1.0830, 1.0750.
GBP/USD: possible correction of the Bank of England's policy in August
The GBP/USD pair has been experiencing downward pressure for the second week, reaching 1.2890 during the Asian session.
British investors are analyzing the latest employment data: in May, the unemployment rate was 4.4%, the employment rate increased by 19.0 thousand instead of the expected 18.0 thousand, the average salary with bonuses decreased from 5.9% to 5.7%, and without bonuses — also to 5.7%, which is the lowest since the summer of 2022. Analysts believe that these data are insufficient to convince conservative-minded members of the Bank of England that inflationary pressures are under control. However, monetary policy easing is possible at the August meeting, as inflation reached the target of 2.0%, and core inflation, excluding energy and food, approached 0.3%, well below the maximum of 0.9% at the beginning of last year. Two rate cuts of 25 basis points are forecast this year. Business activity data is published today at 10:30 (GMT+2): an increase in indicators in the manufacturing sector to 50.9 and in the service sector to 52.1 may support the British currency.
The attention of American investors turned to political events: on Sunday, the current US President Joe Biden announced his refusal to participate in the elections, supporting Vice President Kamala Harris as the candidate of the Democratic Party, which has already gained the necessary number of votes for her nomination. Despite this, many experts see Donald Trump from the Republican Party as the winner, who, if he wins, can impose duties on Chinese goods and lower taxes, stimulating investment, which can accelerate inflation and slow down monetary policy easing. Today at 15:45 (GMT+2), data on business activity indices in the manufacturing sector and the service sector are expected on the market, which may have an impact on the US dollar.
- Resistance levels: 1.2939, 1.3061, 1.3183.
- Support levels: 1.2817, 1.2695, 1.2573.
USD/JPY: Japanese Annual Core CPI settled at 2.1%
The USD/JPY pair shows a steady decline, reaching the level of 154.58, while the market considers the current growth of the yen as corrective, caused by currency interventions of the Bank of Japan.
At the same time, macroeconomic indicators remain disappointing: the core consumer price index remained at 2.1%, rising from 1.8% in May. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector decreased from 50.0 to 49.2 points in July, while in the services sector it improved from 49.4 to 53.9 points. Analysts point to the growing concern of Japanese politicians about the weakness of the national currency and their desire to influence the regulator in order to raise rates. However, at the July 31 meeting, Bank of Japan officials are expected to keep interest rates at the same level and consider the possibility of adjusting monetary policy only in the fall.
- Resistance levels: 155.40, 157.70.
- Support levels: 154.10, 151.80.
USD/CAD: awaiting the Bank of Canada's rate decisions
The USD/CAD pair continues to grow for the second week in a row, currently checking the level of 1.3793 (Murray [8/8]). The Canadian dollar is under pressure on the eve of the Bank of Canada meeting, where an interest rate cut from 4.75% to 4.50% is possible. This decision may be due to the latest inflation data for June, which showed a decrease to 2.7% from 2.9% year-on-year and an increase in unemployment from 6.2% to 6.4%. Given these factors, additional monetary policy easing seems justified, especially after statements by the head of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, about the possibility of reducing the cost of borrowing with a slowdown in consumer price growth. The regulator's goal is to achieve a "soft landing" of the economy, avoiding a sharp increase in unemployment.
As a result, an increase in the USD/CAD exchange rate in the near future looks like the most likely development.
- Resistance levels: 1.3793, 1.3855, 1.3916.
- Support levels: 1.3732, 1.3671, 1.3610.