AUD/USD analysis on July 22, 2024
On Monday, amid the strengthening of the US dollar, AUD/USD is declining and is currently trading near the 0.6664 mark.
The Australian currency weakened after the publication of labor market data for last week, where the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 4.1%, and without taking them into account remained at 4.0%. The share of the economically active population of Australia increased from 66.8% to 66.9%. Full-time employment decreased by 43.3 thousand to 9.944 million, and part-time employment decreased by 6.8 thousand to 4.461 million. This negative trend in the labor market is deterring Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) officials from taking active action, and investors do not expect an interest rate cut in the near future, which puts pressure on the Australian dollar.
The US dollar index is trading at 104.00, receiving support after Joe Biden's decision to withdraw from the presidential election, naming Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor. This statement increases Donald Trump's chances of winning and strengthens expectations of changes in the national economy, which supports the dollar.
AUD/USD technical analysis for today
On the daily chart, AUD/USD is adjusted, retreating from the resistance line of the "expanding formation" pattern with dynamic boundaries of 0.6800–0.6300.
The main forex indicators still retain a buy signal, but it is already quite weak. The averages of the alligator indicator have broken the fan and are turning down, narrowing the range of fluctuations, and the awesome oscillator is falling to the zero line, although it still remains in the buying zone.
Short positions can be opened with a decrease and consolidation of AUD/USD below the level of 0.6650 with a target of 0.6580. The stop loss is set at 0.6700.
We consider purchases when the pair grows and strengthens above the level of 0.6680 with a target of 0.6760. In this case, we will set the stop loss to 0.6640.