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Forecasts and signals from trader Gelaton

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EUR/USD: the Bank of England interfered in the dynamics of currencies
EUR/USD, currency, EUR/USD: the Bank of England interfered in the dynamics of currencies FOREX Fundamental analysis on September 29, 2022While investors were catching the news from the Fed, the Bank of England interfered in currency trading on the forex market, buying up debt securities, which was a shock for the financial markets. British bond yields fell sharply, dragging the rates on treasuries with them. Stock indices went up again and cheered EUR/USD.How long will this boom last? The divergent actions of the new British government and the Bank of England are alarming investors. The regulator raises rates, suppressing demand and at the same time the Cabinet has cut taxes, further heating up inflation. Someone must be in charge and more decisive here. Either the government had to change its project, or BA moved to the dove camp. In the end, the regulator decided to buy bonds, triggering a peak in yields, which can be called a return to QE. This move will clearly drive up inflation, so the probability of a rate hike to 6% in 2023 has risen on the futures market.In the United States, the increase in the cost of debt bonds has been called a "relief rally." After the rate hike to a record 4%, some kind of break was needed, which was the surge in debt bond volatility to the highs of the beginning of the pandemic.The Bank of England's decision to expand QE to £65bn will certainly calm financial markets for a while. But will monetary expansion in the UK be able to put the brakes on the rise in treasury yields? Not likely. At best the markets will experience a corrective pullback, but not a trend reversal. This is also true for EUR/USD.The Fed does not intend to slow down monetary easing, as evidenced by the statements of the FOMC members voiced this week. Committee members see the rate around 4.25-4.50% by the end of the year, and if everything goes according to plan, the dollar will continue to lead the forex market. More about EUR/USD tradingIf you are interested in EUR/USD analytics, we recommend you to visit the analytics page, where you can find the latest analytics on Forex from top traders from all over the world. These analytics will be useful both for beginners and professional traders. The Forex signals service makes it much easier for beginners to make their first steps in trading on the financial markets. The latest EUR/USD forecasts and signals contain support and resistance levels, as well as stop-loss levels.
Sep 29, 2022 Read
Forex analysis and forecast for GBP/USD for today, September 28, 2022
GBP/USD, currency, Forex analysis and forecast for GBP/USD for today, September 28, 2022 GBP/USD remains in a downtrend and is developing a downward trend after the recent corrective growth.Investors are actively selling sterling because of the novelties of the British government in the field of fiscal policy which create additional burden on the British budget.On September 22, the Bank of England said that after the economic downturn in the first and second quarters, the economy entered a technical recession. However, this did not prevent the regulator once again raise the interest rate on fears of rising inflation to a record high of 11%.The finance minister presented to the House of Commons a plan to cut taxes on individuals to help households in the energy crisis on the eve of the heating season.The U.K. retail price index was released today. The index rose 5.1% in AugustGBP/USD Technical AnalysisBollinger indicator is showing a steady decline without any signs of a change in direction.MACD indicator is holding a strong sell signal.The stochastic oscillator from the bottom up has broken through the 20% level and came out of the oversold area.In case of a confident break-down of the support at 1.0660, buy short positions with the target at 1.0274. We will place a stop loss at 1.0750.In case of a rebound from 1.0600 we expect breakdown and fixing of the pair above resistance 1.0750. From here we form long positions with Take Profit at 1.1060. Let's place a protective stop at 1.0600. More about GBP/USD tradingIf you are interested in GBP/USD analytics, we recommend you to visit the analytics page, where you can find the latest analytics on Forex from top traders from all over the world. These analytics will be useful both for beginners and professional traders. The Forex signals service makes it much easier for beginners to make their first steps in trading on the financial markets. The latest GBP/USD forecasts and signals contain support and resistance levels, as well as stop-loss levels. 
Sep 28, 2022 Read
USD/JPY: The Bank of Japan may make another intervention
USD/JPY, currency, USD/JPY: The Bank of Japan may make another intervention On Wednesday USD/JPY demonstrates multidirectional dynamics, not moving away from the key level of 145.00, which most likely plays a decisive role for the Bank of Japan on the issue of currency interventions.Last week the Japanese authorities intervened in the situation with the yen, trying to stop the collapse of the national currency. That lead to a rapid decline in the pair from 145.00 to 140.00. However the market reaction was short-lived because of the strong divergence between the rates of monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and the Fed. The Japanese regulator remains perhaps the only central bank among advanced economies with a soft monetary policy. The BoJ keeps interest rates in negative territory (-0.1%) and maintains its quantitative easing program, keeping debt bond yields near zero.In contrast, the Fed has raised rates at every meeting and says it will continue to aggressively tighten monetary policy. The regulator is expected to raise the rate by 75 basis points for the fourth consecutive time at its next meeting on November 2. Expectations are raising U.S. debt yields, which in turn will strengthen the dollar.Fundamental background, chart patterns and candlestick patterns suggest a continuation of the uptrend. However, the pair is around the 145.00 level, and there is a chance that the Bank of Japan will not let the asset move higher.Counting on a new currency intervention, we consider the installation of a new order to sell USD/JPYSell-limit 145/50 take-profit 140.00 stop-loss 146.50 More about USD/JPY tradingIf you are interested in USD/JPY analytics, we recommend you to visit the analytics page, where you can find the latest analytics on Forex from top traders from all over the world. These analytics will be useful both for beginners and professional traders. The Forex signals service makes it much easier for beginners to make their first steps in trading on the financial markets. The latest USD/JPY forecasts and signals contain support and resistance levels, as well as stop-loss levels.
Sep 28, 2022 Read
EUR/USD: bears are looking at 0.92
EUR/USD, currency, EUR/USD: bears are looking at 0.92 FOREX Fundamental analysis for September 28, 2022In September new investors' fears of a global recession caused by tighter monetary policy by global central banks and the energy crisis were added to earlier fears. The International Monetary Fund believes that the reforms of the new British government will inflate inflation, which will force the Bank of England to act more aggressively and lead ultimately to a serious economic downturn. Moody's warns that tax cuts will have a negative impact on creditworthiness. The pound is collapsing and dragging the single currency with it.The Bank of England's chief economist, Pew Hill, said that the government's new course requires adjustments to the regulator's monetary policy. This led to a sell-off in British bonds. Investors preferred European and most of all U.S. securities, which raised the yield on 10-year Treasuries above 4% for the first time since 2010. The S&P 500 continued its dive, forming its worst bearish session since February 2020.An interesting situation has matured in forex trading. The Fed's competitors, the Central Banks of the world, are increasing the rates but instead of strengthening the national currencies they get the opposite effect. Only the U.S. dollar is growing. Although, of course, it is not so much a matter of regulators as of the Fed's confident policy.The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Neel Kashkari assures that this time the Federal Reserve will not repeat its earlier mistakes, when slowing inflation was deemed a victory and the central bank stopped following a hawkish course. The head of the St. Louis Fed suggests accelerating monetary tightening and raising the rate to 4.5% as soon as possible.The dollar index remains the leader among other forex indices and this situation is unlikely to change in the near future. The BofA calculates that a 10% strengthening of the USD index would cut the average return on S&P 500 stocks by 3%.In addition, demand for defensive assets was supported by the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline. Given the difficulties of the winter period, Bloomberg lowered the Eurozone's economic forecast by 1%. However, if the price of gas rises by another 50%, the GDP will already shrink by 5%.The dollar is profiting from everything while the euro is accumulating problems. EUR/USD has room to go down. The nearest target we see is 0.92. More about EUR/USD tradingIf you are interested in EUR/USD analytics, we recommend you to visit the analytics page, where you can find the latest analytics on Forex from top traders from all over the world. These analytics will be useful both for beginners and professional traders. The Forex signals service makes it much easier for beginners to make their first steps in trading on the financial markets. The latest EUR/USD forecasts and signals contain support and resistance levels, as well as stop-loss levels.
Sep 28, 2022 Read
GBP/USD: what influenced the dynamics of the pound?
GBP/USD, currency, GBP/USD: what influenced the dynamics of the pound? Yesterday Monday was a "black day" for sterling. GBP/USD plummeted from 1.0795 to 1.0365, losing more than 4%. The stock reached the historical lows, keeping the potential to fall to the parity level.That was the traders' reaction to the growth of the British budget deficit due to tax cuts and extra expenses.The speech of the British Minister of Finance Kwasi Kwarteng with the announcement of the measures launched by the authorities to stabilize the economic situation added to the negativity. In particular, the government decided to reduce duties that will cost the treasury £72 billion. It is noteworthy that to compensate for these losses it was decided to reduce the unemployment benefits on which now exists a significant part of the population.Initiatives of the authorities provoked a new wave of capital overflow into protective assets, as investors are hedging on forex. The pressure on sterling was leveled only after the intervention of the Bank of England, which hinted at the possibility of currency intervention.Apart from political factors, strengthening dollar also put pressure on GBP/USD. The Fed is pursuing an ultra-tight monetary policy and experts believe it will hold another rate hike of 75 basis points on November 2.Analysts believe the Fed Funds rate will reach 4.75-5.00% in the first quarter of 2023, which leaves the dollar as the most promising currency.Despite the upward retracement, we believe that the downtrend of GBP/USD is still in force and we suggest placing a pending orderSell-stop 1.0750 take-profit 1.0500 stop-loss 1.0820 More about GBP/USD tradingIf you are interested in GBP/USD analytics, we recommend you to visit the analytics page, where you can find the latest analytics on Forex from top traders from all over the world. These analytics will be useful both for beginners and professional traders. The Forex signals service makes it much easier for beginners to make their first steps in trading on the financial markets. The latest GBP/USD forecasts and signals contain support and resistance levels, as well as stop-loss levels.
Sep 27, 2022 Read
USD/JPY: the pair is consolidating near historic highs
USD/JPY, currency, USD/JPY: the pair is consolidating near historic highs In Asian trading on Tuesday USD/JPY is consolidating near the level of 144.50. At the moment there is a parity of forces between the sellers and the buyers.Last week the Bank of Japan kept interest rate in negative territory (-0.1%) and kept the yield of 10-year debt bonds near zero mark. In addition, the regulator, fearing an uncontrolled depreciation of the yen, conducted a currency intervention for the first time since 1998, the effect of which, it should be noted, was short-lived.Inflation in Japan accelerated to 3%, which of course is lower than in the US, but for the Land of the Rising Sun is a repeat of the 2016 record.Some support for the yen during the week was provided by macroeconomic statistics. In September the index of business activity in the service sector went up from 49.2 to 51.9 points against the forecasted decline of 49.3 points. But the similar indicator of the manufacturing sector went down from 51.5 to 51.0 points.Durable Goods Orders report will be released today in the United States (12:30 GMT). Analysts expect the index to decline by 1.1%. The Bank of Japan will publish the minutes of its recent meeting on Wednesday.Technical analysis for USD/JPYThe CCI indicator remains pointing upward, while the Bollinger Bands started to change to a horizontal plane.MACD indicator remains in the positive range, but its histogram is declining towards the zero line.Stochastic oscillator continues to rise in the middle part of the indicator window.After a confident breakthrough of the key resistance at 145.00 we return to buying with Take Profit at 147.00. We take out a stop loss at 144.00.In case of a rebound from 145.00 we expect breakdown and holding of the price below support at 144.00. From here we form short positions with a target at 142.00. Stop-loss is taken out at 145.00 More about USD/JPY tradingIf you are interested in USD/JPY analytics, we recommend you to visit the analytics page, where you can find the latest analytics on Forex from top traders from all over the world. These analytics will be useful both for beginners and professional traders. The Forex signals service makes it much easier for beginners to make their first steps in trading on the financial markets. The latest USD/JPY forecasts and signals contain support and resistance levels, as well as stop-loss levels.
Sep 27, 2022 Read
Forex analysis and forecast for USD/CHF for today, September 27, 2022
USD/CHF, currency, Forex analysis and forecast for USD/CHF for today, September 27, 2022 On Tuesday the "bears" USD/CHF have freshly seized the initiative, and the pair is retreating from the local maximum of 0.9965, trying to consolidate below 0.9890.The main topic of discussion for investors is the global economic slowdown, as evidenced by China's economic slowdown and the recession in the Eurozone. Global Central Banks are tightening monetary policy to fight inflation, which also increases the risks of a global economic slowdown.Christine Lagarde will speak today at 11:30 GMT and the Durable Goods Orders report is due out in the United States in an hour. Tomorrow, the Swiss National Bank will release its third-quarter report.USD/CHF Technical analysisThe Bollinger Band indicator remains directed upward.MACD indicator is growing in the positive area and holds a strong buy signal.The oscillator stochastic from the bottom up has broken through the 80% level and entered the oversold area.After breakdown above 0.9930, we return to buy with the next target 1.0050. We put a stop loss at 0.9868.For selling it is important to take the price below 0.9868. Take profit is at 0.9762. Stop-loss - at 0.9930. More about USD/CHF tradingIf you are interested in USD/CHF analytics, we recommend you to visit the analytics page, where you can find the latest analytics on Forex from top traders from all over the world. These analytics will be useful both for beginners and professional traders. The Forex signals service makes it much easier for beginners to make their first steps in trading on the financial markets. The latest USD/CHF forecasts and signals contain support and resistance levels, as well as stop-loss levels.
Sep 27, 2022 Read
EUR/USD: Isn't it time for the dollar to take a break?
EUR/USD, currency, EUR/USD: Isn\'t it time for the dollar to take a break? FOREX Fundamental analysis for September 27, 2022It is known that currency trading on the forex market is similar to swinging. Assets climb higher and higher, only to rapidly descend afterwards.The trade-weighted dollar rate, calculated by the Fed over the last year rose by 22% and reached a new record high.But as the historical calculations show, the index was down 7.7% and 6.7% for two months in 2009 and 2015, after rising over 20%. Are we headed down the mountain again anytime soon?Net longs on the dollar as of September 20 are $10.23 billion, almost half the value of July's high of $20 billion. Nevertheless, forex hedge funds have been holding bullish trades for 62 weeks. The BofA calls the greenback purchase "the most crowded trade," although analysts at investment firm Bailard predict a 10-15% rebound in the dollar against the euro and yen in the very near future.Other experts are less determined. Indeed, most of the "bearish" factors have already been taken into account by EUR/USD quotations, which gives grounds for an upward correction, but the fundamental background is still negative towards EUR and favors the dollar. Though ECB decided to keep up with the Fed and raised the rate by 75 basis points, the pace of monetary restriction is incomparable. In addition, the Fed is reducing its balance sheet by $95 billion a month, which the European regulator cannot afford. Christine Lagarde thinks QT can be launched only after rates reach a neutral level.Also pressure on EUR/USD is supported by the difference in economic growth rates. The war in Ukraine, which according to the World Bank will cost the global economy $2.8 trillion, still hurts the Eurozone more than the United States. If the Russian invasion continues, gas prices could rise another 30-50%, sending the Eurozone economy into recession.In addition to the above factors, EUR/USD sellers are supported by investors' rejection of risky assets.Sellers' fixation of short positions might provoke a pullback with a possible recovery to the parity level. Nevertheless, the downtrend remains in force. The pair might continue falling first to 0.95 and then to 0.92, so we continue to sell on the rise. More about EUR/USD tradingIf you are interested in EUR/USD analytics, we recommend you to visit the analytics page, where you can find the latest analytics on Forex from top traders from all over the world. These analytics will be useful both for beginners and professional traders. The Forex signals service makes it much easier for beginners to make their first steps in trading on the financial markets. The latest EUR/USD forecasts and signals contain support and resistance levels, as well as stop-loss levels.
Sep 27, 2022 Read
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