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General analysis and forecast of USD/JPY for today, May 16, 2022
USD/JPY, currency, General analysis and forecast of USD/JPY for today, May 16, 2022 With the opening of trading, the pair sank slightly, but the "bears" do not give up hope to gain a foothold below the level of 129.00. The statistics published on Friday exerted pressure on the dollar, as well as long positions on USD covered by investors due to fears of a decrease in the yield of treasuries.At the same time, the yen is supported by Japan's manufacturing inflation data. In April, the producer price index accelerated from 0.8% to 1.2%. The index of domestic prices for corporate goods has increased.Last week, the United States and Japan agreed to strengthen cooperation in semiconductor research and development. It is expected that at the meeting of the parties scheduled for May 23, the partnership agreement will be officially signed. This will allow Japan to reduce its dependence on South Korean and Taiwanese suppliers. The United States and Japan also intend to cooperate closely in the military sphere, cyberspace and outer space. Tokyo plans to increase the military budget to 2% of GDP.Technical analysis USD/JPYThe CCI indicator and the Bollinger Bands are rearranged in the neutral direction. The MACD indicator is declining in the positive area, maintaining a steady sell signal. Stochastic declined, but before reaching the level of 20%, it went flat.Technical indicators do not give unambiguous signals.When the resistance breaks 129.39, we open long positions with a target mark of 131.00. We place a stop loss at 128.62.A breakdown of support 128.62 will indicate the return of "bears" to the market, whose goal is 127.50. Stop loss is set at 129.39.
May 16, 2022 Read
EUR/USD: should we wait for a pullback before September?
EUR/USD, currency, EUR/USD: should we wait for a pullback before September? Fundamental analysis of FOREX on May 16, 2022 The dollar is stronger than ever, so it makes no sense for investors to go against the Fed's policy. Previously, the Fed tried to rock low inflation, for which rates were lowered, the stock market was supported and the dollar exchange rate was deliberately falling. The COVID-19 pandemic has radically changed the tasks. The central bank is tightening financial conditions, which implies a pullback of stock assets, strengthening the yield of treasuries and the dollar.Over the past decade, the opinion has perversely strengthened in the markets that there is no alternative to stocks. Of course, at that time, the S&P 500 was generating about 17% of revenue annually. Any decrease in the index was immediately used for new longs. Simple thinking brought enormous income.Alas, since the beginning of 2022, the S&P 500 has lost 16%, and investors are increasingly switching to selling stocks with growth, especially with respect to historical data, the value of securities is still quite high. Factset analytics shows a P/E ratio of 16.7 for the assets of the stock index, despite the fact that the average value over the past 20 years is 15.7. Stocks have a place to fall, therefore, the dollar has room to strengthen.Dynamics of EURUSD and the global stock marketAs for EUR/USD, the steady downward trend here is due not only to the strength of the dollar, but also to a decrease in appetite for rice assets, as well as the weakness of the single currency.It is expected that in the very near future, the European Commission will reduce the forecast for Eurozone GDP in 2022 from 4.0% to 2.7% with inflation rising to 6%, and in some countries of Eastern and Central Europe, consumer price growth will reach double digits. It is no coincidence that forex currency trading is increasingly talking about the parity of the euro and the dollar.So far, there are no reasons even for a serious correction in the euro. The single currency may be supported by a pause in the tightening of the Fed's monetary policy, but the Fed is unlikely to do it before September. Moreover, it is very likely that in June and July the Central Bank will raise the rate by 100 basis points. Nevertheless, if an upward pullback occurs in the area of 1.0475 and 1.051 on technical or short-term fundamental factors, then we will use it for new sales.
May 16, 2022 Read
EUR/USD: the pair cannot cling to support
EUR/USD, currency, EUR/USD: the pair cannot cling to support Fundamental analysis of FOREX on April 28, 2022. The camp of euro buyers is rapidly emptying. The war in Ukraine, the Eurozone energy crisis, the recession of the European and world economy leaves no chance for the bulls. EUR/USD is testing support at 1.05, the breakthrough of which opens the way for the asset to parity, if, of course, the bears can break through 1.034 and 1.02.The refusal of Poland and Bulgaria to pay for Russian gas in rubles led to the shutdown of the supply of "blue" fuel to these countries. Someone considers this step another Kremlin adventure, someone - the beginning of the "gas" war. Anyway, the h6o fuel price has risen by 11%. For European consumers, this news is also unpleasant because the cost of energy is calculated in USD, which is rapidly becoming more expensive relative to the European currency.It should be noted that the United States is also experiencing an economic downturn. In the first quarter, US GDP slowed from 6.9% to 1.1%. But these are the traditional difficulties of the first quarter, compounded by the accumulation of stocks, not comparable to the prospects of a recession of the Eurozone economy. Of course, the American economy may also face a recession with a superaggressive increase in Fed rates, but this is a matter of the future, and the regulator is unlikely to let monetary restriction take its course.High inflation is a consequence of supply disruption due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Fed will certainly not be able to influence this factor, so it will raise the rate carefully, preventing the economy from "overheating".At the same time, the tightening of the monetary policy of the world Central banks is the main risk of a slowdown in the global economy, which will again emphasize the exclusivity of the US economy and support the dollar in forex currency trading.EUR/USD fulfills the designated reduction goals with enviable stability. But weak statistics from the United States and the Eurozone inflation report may provoke an upward pullback to 1.055 and 1.06, which can be used to generate new sales.
Apr 28, 2022 Read
AUD/USD: a good opportunity to buy from support
AUD/USD, currency, AUD/USD: a good opportunity to buy from support The AUD/USD trading idea of April 28, 2022. AUD/USD continues to decline and is testing 0.7100 support in Thursday's Asian session. The downward movement from 0.7450 continues for the sixth session in a row. The pair lost about 350 p.Yesterday, investors completely ignored the publication of the Australian consumer price index, although the report was a good signal for the Reserve Bank about the need to tighten monetary policy. In the first quarter, the core consumer price index increased by 1.4%, and on an annualized basis by 3.7%. This is the maximum growth since 2009.The main index rose by 2.1% (sq./sq.) The main driver of price growth was the real estate market. In addition, a shortage of construction materials, a shortage of labor, disruption of logistics and increased demand contribute to the rise in price. Inflationary pressures are growing, and the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to have to raise interest rates for the first time since 2010.In addition, the Australian dollar will support the slowdown in the spread of COVID-19 in China. According to Bloomberg, Shanghai is considering easing quarantine restrictions. In Beijing, the epidemiological situation is improving.We believe that, taking into account the positive fundamental background, the Australian dollar may turn into growth and we suggest including an order to buy AUD/USD in the trader's diary of transactions
Apr 28, 2022 Read
EUR/USD: the pair met the target at 1.065
EUR/USD, currency, EUR/USD: the pair met the target at 1.065 Fundamental analysis of FOREX on April 27, 2022. The growing demand for defensive assets and American exceptionalism continue to increase the dollar's position in forex currency trading. The slowdown of the Chinese and European economies, the war in Ukraine, anti-Russian sanctions increase geopolitical uncertainty and push EUR/USD to the lows of 2017.The higher the cost of energy, the greater the likelihood of the European economy sliding into recession. Poland and Bulgaria refused to pay for Russian gas in rubles, thereby breaking the contract for the supply of fuel. It is possible that these countries will be followed by others. This will lead to an even greater acceleration of inflation and an expansion of the difference in the economic growth rates of the EU and the US economies, where, judging by the data of orders for durable goods, enterprises are increasing the volume of production of machinery and equipment.And although Xi Jinping demands that the Chinese government overtake the United States in terms of economic growth, in 2022 this is clearly an impossible task.But the divergence of economic growth is not the only driver of the strengthening of the greenback. Rates in the US are higher than in the Eurozone, and this allows the dollar to be used as the main currency for carry trade. Deutsche Bank believes that in order to defeat inflation, the Fed needs to raise the rate to 5-6%%. The ECB, of course, will not be able to take such a step, although for the American economy, an increase in rates could easily turn into a recession. The probability of a recession over the next 12 months, according to Bloomberg forecasts, has increased from 20% to 27.5%.And, of course, the fall of American stock indices adds to the rate of decline of EUR/USD. The S&P 500 falls into stocks and drags risky assets, including the euro, through the correlation of currencies and indices.The fundamental background allowed EUR/USD to meet the target at 1.065. If sellers break through the support at 1.061, then the next target of the decline is 1.05. However, I do not exclude that on the eve of the release of important news from the US and the Eurozone, the pair will consolidate at current levels for some time
Apr 27, 2022 Read
EUR/USD: the next target is 1.06
EUR/USD, currency, EUR/USD: the next target is 1.06 The EUR/USD trading idea of April 26, 2022. On Tuesday EUR/USD continues the downward movement formed at the end of last month. In the Asian session, the pair tested the 1.0700 support, updating the two-year lows.The pressure on the pair is primarily exerted by the strengthening of the dollar, caused by the aggressive tightening of the Fed's monetary policy. Last week, Jerome Powell announced a 50 basis point rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in May. In addition, the head of the regulator noted the need to carry out acts of monetary restriction at every meeting of the Open Market Committee. The "hawkish" rhetoric of the head of the Federal Reserve suggests that the regulator, in addition to raising the rate, will begin reducing the balance sheet in the very near future.At the same time, the European currency is under pressure from various problems. The war in Ukraine forces the European authorities to take sanctions measures against the Kremlin, which harm the Euroblock economy, which depends on energy supplies from the Russian Federation. The energy crisis accelerates inflation and slows down economic growth. JP Morgan has already lowered forecasts for Eurozone GDP growth for this and next years.On the technical side, indicators, graphical and candlestick patterns suggest a continuation of the downtrend. In this regard, we are considering the installation of a new order for the sale of EUR/USD
Apr 26, 2022 Read
General analysis and forecast of AUD/USD for today, April 25, 2021
AUD/USD, currency, General analysis and forecast of AUD/USD for today, April 25, 2021 On Monday, AUD/USD develops a downward movement and updated the lows on February 28 in the Asian session. The impetus for the bears was Jerome Powell's statement on the need to raise the rate by 50 basis points, made on Thursday.The release of good statistics from Australia on Friday could not stop the advance of sellers. The manufacturing business activity index in April rose from 57.7 to 57.9 p. In the service sector, the index rose from 55.6 to 56.6 pp. Composite PMI strengthened from 55.1 to 56.2 pp.The pressure on the "Australian" is intensified by news from China, where the maximum daily incidence of COVID-19 – 21 thousand people was recorded in Shanghai.Technical analysisThe Bollinger Band indicator on daily is already aimed at a decline.The histogram of the MACD indicator has crossed the zero line from top to bottom and continues to decline in the negative range, forming a confident sell signal.The stochastic oscillator has returned to the oversold area again.We open short positions after a confident breakdown of the 0.7150 support. Take profit will be set to 0.7050. Protective stop at 0.7200.With a rebound from 0.7150, we are waiting for a breakthrough and consolidation above 0.7200. After that, we form purchases with a target mark of 0.7300. We put the stop loss at 0.7150.
Apr 25, 2022 Read
USD/CHF: the pair rose to record highs
USD/CHF, currency, USD/CHF: the pair rose to record highs USD/CHF review of April 25, 2022During the Asian session on Monday, USD/CHF rose to a record high of June 2020 -0.9580.The reason for the strengthening of the dollar was Jerome Powell's statement on Thursday about the need to raise the rate by 50 basis points at the May FOMC meeting. The head of the Federal Reserve also confirmed the regulator's intentions to start reducing the balance sheet, which has now reached $9 trillion.In addition, the US dollar is in demand as a protective asset against the backdrop of growing geopolitical uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 outbreak in China.Bollinger bands, CCI indicator and graphical patterns suggest the continuation of the uptrend, however, before entering a trade, the probability of a downward corrective pullback from the area of historical highs should be taken into account.At a breakdown above 0.9600, we open long positions with a take profit of 0.9700. We set a protective stop loss at 0.9535.In case of a rebound from 0.9600, we are waiting for a breakdown and consolidation of the pair below the support of 0.9535 and from here we enter sales with a target of 0.9400. We will set the protective stop to 0.9600.
Apr 25, 2022 Read
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