AUD/USD: buyers are not going to retreat

The Eurozone: investor sentiment and macroeconomic expectationsThe Sentix index, reflecting investor sentiment, will be published in the Eurozone today. It is important to understand whether the positive momentum of February has been maintained in March. This indicator can provide additional guidance for assessing the current dynamics of economic growth and investment activity in the region.A number of macroeconomic data is expected to be published in Sweden, including the cost of production index, household consumption, as well as data on industrial orders and turnover. These indicators will help to better assess the vector of development of the Swedish economy. However, special attention will be paid to the GDP indicator for January, although its predictive power relative to actual data remains low.In Norway, the market is following the February inflation. In January, core inflation unexpectedly rose to 2.8% YoY, mainly due to rising import prices. According to forecasts, core inflation could strengthen by 0.25% mom in February (seasonally adjusted data), which would leave annual growth at 2.9%. This is higher than Norges Bank's December forecast (2.7%), which may increase speculation about a possible slowdown in the disinflationary trend or even its reversal.During the week, the focus will be on the meeting of representatives of the United States and Ukraine on Tuesday, as well as possible news from Germany, where a large-scale fiscal package approved by the new government is being discussed.Overview of key eventsIn the United States, the February labor market report showed an expected increase in the number of jobs by 151 thousand (forecast: 160 thousand, previous value: 143 thousand). Despite the dismissal of 30,000 public sector employees and a decrease in migration inflows, this indicator remains stable. Unemployment increased to 4.1% in February from 4.0% in January, but so far it does not signal a recession or overheating of the economy.On the geopolitical front, Donald Trump announced the possibility of imposing new large-scale sanctions and tariffs against Russia in order to increase pressure on Moscow as part of the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine. A meeting between representatives of the United States and Ukraine is scheduled this week in Saudi Arabia, and it is expected that it will be more productive than Vladimir Zelensky's recent visit to Washington, which ended with the suspension of military assistance to Kiev.In the Eurozone, the final GDP data for the fourth quarter turned out to be higher than expected, with growth of 0.2% (previous reading: 0.1%). The GDP growth forecast for 2024 has also been revised from 0.9% to 1.2%, which is a positive signal for the region's economy.In China, the February consumer price index decreased by 0.7% YoY (forecast: -0.5%, previous value: +0.5%), which was the first decrease in 13 months. The main reasons were the early Lunar New Year celebrations and lower food prices. Further attention will be focused on assessing the effectiveness of Beijing's economic stimulus measures.In Denmark, industrial production fell by 11.9% in January (seasonally adjusted data). Even taking into account the traditional volatility of this indicator, this is a significant decrease. The pharmaceutical sector made the main contribution to the decline, but excluding pharmaceuticals, production still decreased by 7.7%.Stock markets: recovery or correction?US stock indexes ended Friday with gains after an unexpectedly strong employment report and moderately dovish comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. However, the weekly decline was significant. The S&P 500 lost 3.3%, while European markets declined 0.6%. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 indexes reached a correction level relative to post-election highs, while the S&P 500 fell by 6% from its peak values.Over the past three weeks, there have been significant differences in the dynamics of various sectors and regions. In the United States, the banking sector, the automotive industry, and the consumer sector were the most affected, with declines of 5-10%. In Europe, despite the general decline in markets, the sectoral picture is different: the main losses were recorded in real estate (-8%) and consumer durable goods (-8%), while capital goods and raw materials companies showed an increase of 3-4%.Private investors were faster than professional investors in predicting a correction, as the AAII bulls and bears index went into negative territory at the beginning of the year. However, despite the deepening correction in the US stock markets, the index remains at historically low levels, and the Fear & Greed index has reached the "extreme fear" zone.The weekend brought "bearish" comments from Donald Trump, who said the US was expecting a "transition period" due to tariffs. Unlike in his first administration, when the stock market was an important indicator of politics, he now highlights the country's long-term strategic interests, which increases uncertainty for investors.Bond and currency markets: rising yields and a stronger dollarThe February employment report did not have a significant impact on the bond market, but yields rose by the weekend after Powell's statements, who noted that the US economy was "feeling fine" and the Fed was in no hurry to revise the rate. However, part of this movement was offset on Monday by a deterioration in global risk appetite and a decline in stock indexes.The US dollar has recovered some of the losses it suffered during the tumultuous past week. The EUR/USD exchange rate, which fell below 1.04 on Monday, reached 1.0889 on Friday, but then adjusted to 1.0835.In the Scandinavian currency market, SEK remains the strongest among the major currencies: EUR/SEK broke through the 11.00 mark and is trading around 10.90. At the same time, EUR/NOK continues to grow gradually, approaching 11.80.Thus, global markets continue to balance between the prospects of monetary policy, inflationary trends and geopolitical risks, which creates increased volatility of currency pairs and uncertainty in the short term.

FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on March 10, 2025While Europe is gripped by euphoria due to Germany's transition to large-scale fiscal stimulus, in the United States, political uncertainty is increasing the risks of recession. This has changed the forex hedging system, and speculators have been selling the US dollar for the seventh week in a row, and the EUR/USD pair has shown the best weekly dynamics since 2009. The gap between expectations and reality on both sides of the Atlantic has caused a sharp rise in the main currency pair.Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the central bank can afford to wait with a rate cut, as the current situation does not require immediate action. However, the futures market raised expectations for the scale of monetary easing. Now, by the end of 2025, three rate cuts are expected, although one or two were predicted at the beginning of the year. This is due to a series of disappointing data on the US economy, which increases the risks of recession.US President Donald Trump does not rule out the possibility of an economic downturn, noting that the current policy of the White House may cause short-term turbulence, but in the long run it will lead to the prosperity of the country. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant believes that the United States needs a period of "detoxification" to reduce dependence on government spending.In Germany, the situation is the opposite. After years of fiscal consolidation, the country's economy found itself in recession in 2023-2024. However, the ambitious plans of the new Chancellor Friedrich Merz have caused optimism in the markets. Expectations of large-scale fiscal stimulus led to capital inflows to Europe, which supported the growth of stock indexes and accelerated the EUR/USD rally to the fastest pace since 2009.The further dynamics of the EUR/USD pair will depend on whether the pessimistic scenarios for the United States and the optimistic ones for Germany are realized. Jerome Powell stressed that the Fed needs to see progress in reducing inflation and weakening the labor market. At the same time, employment growth of 151 thousand in February was called "solid", which became the basis for profit-taking in EUR/USD.It remains unclear whether Friedrich Merz will be able to get the support of two-thirds of parliament to change the fiscal brake. A possible trade war between the US and the EU, which could negatively affect the eurozone economy, will also be an important factor. These concerns restrain the further growth of the EUR/USD pair.New data on the US consumer price index (CPI) for February may shake up the market again. Continued disinflation will accelerate the sale of the dollar, and rising prices will trigger sales of EUR/USD. In the near future, the euro may enter a consolidation phase. While the pair is trading below the 1.0850 pivot, short positions are a priority.

Investors are focused on the final data on the national accounts of the eurozone for the fourth quarter, especially the indicators of hours worked and private consumption. These indicators will help to assess the dynamics of the region's economy before the next ECB decisions.US markets are waiting for the February labor market report to be published. According to forecasts, the growth in the number of jobs outside agriculture (NFP) will slow down to 120 thousand, compared with 143 thousand in January. The decline is influenced by seasonal factors, cuts at the federal level and a slowdown in immigration, limiting the supply of labor.Denmark will release industrial production data for January. After growing by 4% in December and an annual increase of 8.6% in 2024, the country's industrial sector is showing resilience in contrast to other European countries.Statistics on manufacturing production are expected in Norway. After a sharp drop in the summer of 2023, there was an upward jump in December, but weak leading indicators (PMI and confidence index) raise questions about the long-term sustainability of this growth.In Sweden, markets continue to analyze the impact of an unexpected increase in inflation exceeding the forecasts of the Riksbank. A report on the level of government borrowing for February, which has already exceeded forecasts by 18 billion SEK, will also be released today.China is to publish the consumer price Index (CPI) for February. The indicator is projected to decrease to -0.4% in annual terms, compared with 0.5% in January. The main reason is the effect of the Chinese New Year, which temporarily raised prices in January. Industrial prices (PPI) will remain in the deflation zone, falling by 2.1% against -2.3% a month earlier.Economic and market newsThe ECB's decision and its impactThe European Central Bank cut the interest rate by 25 bps to 2.50%, which was expected by the markets. Investors are now assessing the prospects for further easing. Despite the ECB's statements about reducing policy rigidity, uncertainty remains due to geopolitical risks and fiscal policy. We expect a further rate cut to 1.5% by September, which is below market forecasts.USA: labor market and macroeconomic dynamicsThe number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States decreased by 21,000 to 221,000, which turned out to be better than expected. However, repeat applications increased by 42,000 to 1,897 million, confirming the continued rigidity of the labor market.China: weaker imports and trade tensionsChina's imports fell by 8.4% in February, significantly worse than expectations for a 1% increase. Exports increased by only 2.3% instead of the expected 5.0%. This indicates a deterioration in trade relations with the United States and a decrease in business activity during the holidays.Scandinavia: inflation in Sweden and declining bankruptcies in DenmarkIn Sweden, unexpectedly high inflation led to a strengthening of the SEK, which increased expectations for the end of the rate cut cycle. Meanwhile, in Denmark, the number of bankruptcies decreased by 8.8% compared to January, returning to pre-pandemic levels. The National Bank of Denmark also lowered its key rate by 25 bps to 2.10%.Geopolitics: US trade policy and Conflict risks in EuropeUS President Donald Trump has temporarily postponed the imposition of tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico under the USMCA until April 2, but 25% duties on steel and aluminum will take effect on March 12. Geopolitical risks are increasing in Europe: Russia has warned French President Emmanuel Macron about threats related to his statements about nuclear weapons, and also rejected NATO proposals for a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine.Stock markets: US declines, Europe outperformsGlobal stock markets closed in different directions: the United States showed a decline, while Europe continued to grow. Investors are gradually shifting their trust in politics from the United States to Europe.US indexes ended the day in the red• Dow Jones -0.99%• S&P 500 -1.8%• Nasdaq -2.6%• Russell 2000 -1.6%Cyclical stocks are growing the most in Europe, especially industrial companies that expect infrastructure investments to grow. Banks are significantly outperforming the REIT sector, which is suffering from rising bond yields.In Asia, Chinese stocks are showing growth, while the Japanese market is under pressure due to the strengthening of the yen.Bonds and currenciesThe yield on German 10-year bonds (Bund) initially exceeded 2.9%, but then dropped to 2.83% amid the "last rush" of buyers. After the ECB meeting, the markets overestimated the possible level of the final rate, raising it by 20 bps.In the foreign exchange market, EUR/USD stabilized near 1.08 after rising due to the expansion of fiscal stimulus in the eurozone. The pound remains under pressure due to high volatility. USD/JPY dropped below 148, while EUR/CHF corrected some of the recent gains.ConclusionCurrency pairs remain highly volatile on FOREX, and investors are closely monitoring macroeconomic data and the geopolitical situation. The eurozone continues to attract attention due to fiscal stimulus, while the United States is facing labor market problems and policy uncertainty. China remains under pressure from low inflation and weakening trade.

FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on March 7, 2025The tariff policy of the White House administration continues to cause panic in the financial markets. Stock indexes are declining despite the partial exemption of Mexico and Canada from tariffs. The EUR/USD pair, which had previously shown growth, is beginning to feel resistance, as a significant part of the negative factors have already been taken into account in the US dollar exchange rate. Against this background, the publication of US employment data for February may cause serious fluctuations in the Forex market.Donald Trump has decided to temporarily exempt goods from Mexico and Canada that comply with the terms of the USMCA agreement from previously announced tariffs until April. This decision will affect about 50% of Mexican and 38% of Canadian imports. In response, Canada postponed the imposition of tariffs on $87 billion and offered to renegotiate the terms of the Free Trade Agreement.The USMCA agreement, which came into force at the end of Trump's first term, has been the subject of controversy. The US president has repeatedly stated that trading partners and allies "live at the expense of the United States," which creates tension not only with Mexico and Canada, but also with other countries, including Ukraine.Investors are confused by Trump's unpredictable policies. This led to an outflow of capital from the United States to Europe, which supported the euro and allowed it to show the best weekly dynamics since the pandemic. However, the euro rally was suspended after the ECB meeting and in anticipation of data on the US labor market.At the ECB's March meeting, the deposit rate was lowered by 25 basis points to 2.5%, the sixth decrease in the last seven meetings. Inflation forecasts for 2025 were raised to 2.3%, and GDP forecasts were lowered to 0.9%. ECB President Christine Lagarde announced the transition to a more cautious approach, leaving the opportunity for a pause in further policy easing. This caused a mixed market reaction: the euro initially rose, but then began to decline.The US employment report for February will be a key event for the market. Optimists believe that most of the layoffs in the public sector have not yet been accounted for, so the data may be better than expected. However, in the medium term, the labor market is likely to continue to cool.Trading recommendations- If the employment data turns out to be close to forecasts, profit-taking on long positions is possible, which will lead to sales at the breakdown of the 1.0765 support.- In case of strong employment data, sharp fluctuations are possible, which will create opportunities for purchases on drawdowns.

During the Asian session, the Australian dollar continues to develop the bullish momentum formed at the beginning of the week. AUD/USD quotes are testing the 0.6345 level for an upward breakout, updating local highs since February 24.Data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States will be published today at 15:30 (GMT+2). It is expected that the number of initial requests will decrease from 242.0 thousand to 235.0 thousand for the week of February 28, and repeat requests (for the week of February 21) may grow from 1,862 million to 1,880 million.The February labor market report will be released tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+2), which may influence further Fed decisions. It is predicted that the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector will grow from 143.0 thousand to 160.0 thousand, and the average hourly wage will slow down from 0.5% to 0.3% in monthly terms. The annual wage rate will remain at 4.1%, while the unemployment rate will remain at 4.0%.On Thursday morning, Australia's foreign trade data was released. Exports increased by 1.3% in January, which was 0.1% higher than in December, while imports decreased by 0.3% after rising by 5.9% in the previous month. As a result, the trade surplus expanded from 4.92 billion to 5.62 billion Australian dollars, exceeding expectations of 5.50 billion. Market participants also assessed the data on the number of building permits, which increased by 6.3% month-on-month and 21.7% year-on-year in January, compared with 1.7% and 12.2% a month earlier.Investors continue to analyze the minutes of the last RBA meeting, at which the rate was reduced by 25 basis points to 4.10% for the first time since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. The head of the regulator, Michelle Bullock, noted the stability of the labor market, but expressed doubts about the return of inflation to the target 2.0% at lower rates, especially against the background of uncertainty caused by the US tariff policy. According to the ASX rates indicator, the market estimates the probability of another 25 basis point rate cut at the next meeting on April 1 at 14%.AUD/USD technical analysis for todayOn the daily AUD/USD chart, the Bollinger indicator shows a horizontal reversal, which indicates a narrowing of the price range. The MACD indicator is growing and holds a strong buy signal. Stochastic maintains its upward momentum, but is approaching the overbought zone, which indicates a possible correction in the short term.Trading recommendations- It is advisable to enter the purchase after the breakdown of the 0.6373 level upwards with a target of 0.6450. It is recommended to set the stop loss at 0.6330.- An opportunity for sales will appear in the event of a rebound from the 0.6373 level and a breakdown of the 0.6330 level downwards with a target of 0.6250. In this case, the stop loss should be placed at 0.6373.

FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on March 6, 2025Investors expected fiscal stimulus from the Donald Trump administration, which could strengthen the American economy and push the EUR/USD pair to parity. However, instead, the markets received large-scale fiscal initiatives from Germany, which led to a strengthening of the euro and a possible reversal of the downtrend for the main currency pair, which changes the positioning and, consequently, forex trading strategies.The US decision to suspend military assistance to Ukraine was a catalyst for Europe, which realized the need for independent protection. The new German leader Friedrich Merz, by analogy with Mario Draghi in 2012, promised to do everything possible to save the economy. His first steps include creating a $500 billion special fund for infrastructure development and freeing military spending from the fiscal brake imposed in 2009.Expectations of large-scale issues led to a sharp rise in German bond yields, which was the most significant daily increase since 1990. The narrowing of the difference between the yields of German bunds and American treasuries pushed the EUR/USD pair above the 1.08 level. The last time the euro was at these values was during the US presidential election in November last year.Germany can afford fiscal stimulus worth up to $1.6 trillion. This will increase the level of public debt from the current 62% to 120% of GDP, which is comparable to the US figures. Morgan Stanley estimates that total defense and infrastructure spending will exceed €1 trillion.Bank of America forecasts the German economy to grow from 0% to 1.5-2% starting in 2027. Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for German GDP by 0.2 percentage points to 0.2% in 2025 and by 0.5 percentage points to 1.5% in 2026. The ECB is also expected to cut rates twice this year instead of three times.EUR/USD rally: correction or new trend?Rumors are growing in the Forex market that the current growth of EUR/USD is not just a correction, but the beginning of a new trend. The risks of a reversal for the euro on the charts of weeks and months have become positive for the first time in six months. However, traders are still waiting for the euro to fall in 3-6 months, given the risks of a large-scale trade war between the US and the EU.The day before, a labor market report from ADP was released in the United States, showing that employment in the US private sector increased by only 77,000 in February, which was one of the weakest indicators over the past two years. This reinforces expectations of an early resumption of the Fed's monetary easing cycle, which puts pressure on the US dollar.Trading recommendationsWorking out the target of buyers at the level of 1.0810 allowed us to lock in part of the profit. The further dynamics of EUR/USD will depend on the pivot level of 1.0810. In case of a fall below 1.0785, the possibility of selling can be considered, but the current market situation indicates a high probability of continued growth of the pair.

During Tuesday's Asian session, the US dollar showed a moderate decline. USD/CHF is trying to break down the 0.8960 level. The weakening of the US currency is due to the factors of technical analysis by John Murphy, as well as investor caution before the release of key statistics on employment in the United States.The ADP report on employment dynamics in the US private sector will be published tomorrow at 3:15 p.m. (GMT+2). Forecasts suggest a reduction from 183,000 to 140,000, which may increase pressure on the Fed in the context of possible monetary policy easing. At the moment, the market is planning two interest rate cuts of 25 bps in the second half of 2025.On Friday at 15:30 (GMT+2), official data on the US labor market will be released, according to which the number of jobs in the non-agricultural sector may grow from 143,000 to 153,000. The average hourly wage growth is likely to be 4.1% year-on-year, and will slow down from 0.5% to 0.3% month-on-month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.0%.The Swiss franc is receiving additional support due to strong macroeconomic statistics. The SVME business activity index rose from 47.5 to 49.6 points in February, exceeding analysts' forecasts (48.4 points). At the same time, the ISM manufacturing index in the United States decreased from 50.9 to 50.3 points, indicating a slowdown in activity in the sector.Inflation data will be released in Switzerland tomorrow at 09:30 (GMT+2). The consumer price index for February is expected to rise by 0.5% after falling by 0.1% a month earlier, and in annual terms the figure will be 0.4%. This factor may influence the rhetoric of the Swiss National Bank, which is likely to take a pause in interest rate changes.In addition, the SNB ended 2024 with a record profit of 80.7 billion francs. The value of gold on the regulator's balance sheet increased by 21.2 billion francs, the profit from operations in foreign currency amounted to 67.3 billion francs, while losses from positions in national currency reached 7.4 billion francs.Technical analysis indicates a further weakening of the dollar. The Bollinger bands on the daily chart are narrowing, signaling consolidation in the short term. The MACD is in the negative zone, confirming the bearish sentiment, and the Stochastic, having turned away from the overbought zone, indicates a possible decline.Sales are advisable after a confident breakdown down to the level of 0.8952 with the potential to decline to 0.8865. The stop loss is 0.9000.Purchases are possible in case of a rebound from 0.8952 and a breakdown of 0.9000 upwards. In this case, the target level is 0.9075 and the stop loss is 0.8952.

The Eurozone: labor market stability and monetary policy prospectsThe focus of European investors' attention is shifting to the unemployment rate data for January. The labor market in the Eurozone continues to show resilience, remaining at a record low of 6.3%. Analysts' expectations also point to the continuation of this value, which confirms the stability of employment in the region.Global economic developmentsAsia: unexpected increase in unemployment in JapanIn Japan, the unemployment rate in January turned out to be higher than expected, rising to 2.5% against the expected 2.4% and the December value of 2.4%. At the same time, the ratio of vacancies to applicants rose to 1.26 in November (1.25 was expected), which may indicate a gradual recovery in demand for labor.USA: ISM index signals slowdown in manufacturing sectorThe February ISM index in the manufacturing sector fell from 50.9 to 50.3 (50.7 was expected), indicating stagnation in the recovery of industrial production. Interestingly, the PMI was revised upward from 51.6 to 52.7, creating a contradictory signal for investors. An additional risk to inflation remains the continued rise in commodity prices, which may be exacerbated by the introduction of new tariffs.Eurozone: inflation continues to slow downIn February, annual HICP inflation dropped to 2.4% from 2.5% (expected 2.3%). Core inflation also turned out to be higher than expected, falling from 2.7% to 2.6% (2.5% was expected). The main factor of the decline is the slowdown in price growth in the service sector, caused by the weakening of economic activity in recent months and the effects of the base. These data reinforce expectations of an easing of the ECB's monetary policy, but the risks of wage growth remain, which may slow the decline in inflationary pressures. Core inflation is expected to fall below 2% by the summer as prices for goods and services weaken.Additionally, the manufacturing PMI was revised up from 47.3 to 47.6, which confirms expectations of a gradual recovery in the industrial sector. It is predicted that by the end of summer, the indicator will reach the level of 50, which will be an indicator of economic expansion.Sweden: manufacturing sector shows growthThe Swedish manufacturing PMI strengthened, rising from 53.0 to 53.5 due to increased production, orders and employment. The exception was the delivery time component, which decreased slightly, but overall the dynamics remains positive. The average figure for the last six months is 52.9, which confirms the steady growth of the industrial sector.Trade wars and geopolitical risksUS President Donald Trump has confirmed the introduction of 25% tariffs on all imported goods from Canada and Mexico from March 4. This increased fears in the markets and caused sharp fluctuations in financial assets. In addition, duties on Chinese goods were increased from 10% to 20%, which creates the risk of a new escalation of the trade conflict.Trump also announced an agreement with Taiwanese company TSMC to build five new semiconductor manufacturing plants in the United States worth $100 billion. These measures are aimed at reducing dependence on Chinese technology.In addition, the United States announced the suspension of military assistance to Ukraine in order to put pressure on President Zelensky in negotiations with Russia. This step strengthens Russia's position and forces European countries to reconsider their strategy of supporting Kiev. Against this background, the shares of European defense companies have shown a sharp increase, as investors are pricing in an increase in military spending in the region.Stock markets: reaction to political risksStock markets have demonstrated multidirectional dynamics. European indexes rose despite the risks of tariffs, while U.S. stocks were under pressure due to the uncertainty of Trump's trade policy. The main US indices closed lower: Dow -1.5%, S&P 500 -1.8%, Nasdaq -2.6%, Russell 2000 -2.8%.Interestingly, the Chinese stock market showed growth despite the introduction of 20% tariffs on exports. This can be explained by the revaluation of assets and the weak representation of Chinese companies in global investor portfolios.The largest technology companies (MAG 7) lost 3.1%, and the cryptocurrency market also came under pressure. This indicates a redistribution of capital from high-risk assets to more sustainable sectors.Bonds and foreign exchange markets: reaction to global changesIn debt markets, a sharp rise in expectations of increased military spending in Europe has triggered bond sales, especially at the far end of the yield curve. The yield of 30-year German securities increased by 10 bps, and 10-year – by 9 bps, exceeding the level of 2.5%. Additional pressure was exerted by an increase in the supply of debt instruments – Belgium placed 15-year bonds, the Netherlands issued new 10-year securities, and Austria offered investors bonds maturing in 2035 and 2053.In the foreign exchange market, the Swedish krona (SEK) strengthened, as the growth of European assets contributed to the demand for currencies with a high correlation with the region's economy. EUR/SEK dropped to 11.00. The EUR/USD pair strengthened by 1%, approaching the 1.05 mark. At the same time, the Canadian dollar came under pressure due to the US tariff policy.Oil prices declined after OPEC+ unexpectedly decided to stick to its planned production increase from April, while markets expected current quotas to remain in place. This has increased volatility in the commodity market and is putting pressure on oil-producing countries.ConclusionsFinancial markets continue to be highly dependent on political decisions. The main events are the escalation of the US trade wars with Canada, Mexico and China, the tightening of pressure on Ukraine and the prospects for a reduction in ECB rates. Markets are pricing in increased geopolitical risks, which supports the growth of European assets and puts pressure on high-price American stocks. In the coming weeks, investors will closely monitor the dynamics of inflation and the reaction of central banks to changes in global trade.