The AUD/USD pair continues to decline and today reached the lowest values since November in the area of 0.7310.
AUD/USD forex forecast and analytics today and July 21-22, 2021
The Australian currency remains under pressure due to the deteriorating situation with the coronavirus pandemic. Today, a week-long lockdown was announced for the state of South Australia, which joined the states of New South Wales and Victoria, which went into quarantine earlier. The most economically developed regions, where more than half of the country's population lives, are subject to restrictive measures. Experts believe that due to the quarantine, Australia's GDP will shrink in the third quarter, and the regulator may refuse to adjust monetary policy. Recall that at the last meeting, officials of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to reduce the volume of asset repurchases from 5 to 4 billion Australian dollars from September. However, since then, the situation has changed for the worse and made it impractical to reduce purchases.
The US economy is actively recovering, and US Federal Reserve officials are considering the possibility of starting to reduce the QE program, which was confirmed last week by the head of the regulator Jerome Powell. Today, investors are waiting for the publication of June data from the construction market. It is expected that the number of construction permits will grow by 1,700 million, and the number of new house bookmarks – by 1,590 million. The implementation of the forecast may provide additional support to the US dollar.
Support and resistance levels
The price is testing the 0.7324 mark (Murray [0/8]), the breakdown of which will give the prospect of a decline up to the level of 7200.00 within the forex forecast. The key point for the bears is the 0.7500 mark (Murray [3/8], the middle line of the Bollinger bands). If it is fixed above it, it will be possible to increase to the levels of 0.7630 (Murray [5/8]) and 0.7750 (Murray [7/8]).
The indicators indicate a decline: the Bollinger bands and Stochastic are directed down, the MASD histogram is growing in the negative zone.
Resistance levels: 0.7500, 0.7630, 0.7750.
Support levels: 0.7324, 0.7200
Trading Scenarios
Thus, AUD/USD forex forecast for July 20-21, 2021, short positions can be opened below the 0.7324 mark with a target of 0.7200 and a stop loss of 0.7400. Implementation period: 5-7 days.
Long positions should be opened above the 0.7500 level with targets of 0.7630, 0.7750 and a stop loss of 0.7420.