The Australian currency remains under pressure due to the aggravation of the pandemic situation in the country, which can negate all the successes of the national economy for the first half of this year.
AUD/USD forex forecast and analytics today and July 28-29, 2021
Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said that the country's GDP is expected to decline in the third quarter, and the situation with the fourth quarter remains uncertain. A new economic recovery is possible, as well as a continuation of its reduction. According to the latest calculations, the restrictions cost the Australian economy 2.8 billion Australian dollars every week. At the same time, the weakening of quarantine measures in the states of Victoria and South Australia will not greatly ease the situation, since the most economically active state of New South Wales and its capital Sydney still remains in a state of quarantine, which may last for several more weeks.
The US dollar now looks preferable. Investors are waiting for the results of the next meeting of the US Federal Reserve starting today. Probably, the regulator will not adjust monetary policy and change the interest rate from the current 0.25%, but it may hint at the timing of reducing the volume of securities repurchase, as the head of the department Jerome Powell confirmed the discussion of this step by officials.
Support and resistance levels
The key for the "bears" remains the level of 0.7324 (Murray [3/8]), the breakdown of which will give the prospect of a decline to the levels of 0.7263 (Murray [-1/8]) and 0.7200 (Murray [-2/8]) within the forex forecast. A break above the level of 0.7446 (Murray [2/8], the middle line of the Bollinger bands) can cause an increase to the levels of 0.7507 (Murray [3/8]) and 0.7568 (Murray [4/8]).
The downward trend continues, as evidenced by the reversal of the Bollinger bands down and the stabilization of the MACD histogram in the negative zone. The upward reversal of the Stochastic does not exclude an upward correction.
Resistance levels: 0.7446, 0.7507, 0.7568.
Support levels: 0.7324, 0.7263, 0.7200.
Thus, AUD/USD forex forecast for July 28-29, 2021, short positions can be opened below the level of 0.7324 with targets of 0.7263, 0.7200 and a stop loss in the area of 0.7365. Implementation period: 5-7 days.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 0.7446 with targets of 0.7507, 0.7568 and a stop loss in the area of 0.7400.