AUD/USD analysis on September 16, 2024
In the Asian session on Monday, AUD/USD shows moderate growth, returning to the "bullish" trend after a slight correction at the end of last week. The instrument is approaching the level of 0.6725, trying to break it up amid expectations of a rate cut from the US Federal Reserve.
Recall that the Fed meeting will begin tomorrow, and the final decision will be announced on September 18. Investors expect a 25 basis point rate cut and hope to receive signals of monetary policy easing by the end of the year. Recent data from the University of Michigan showed a slight increase in five-year inflation expectations from 3.0% to 3.1%, and the consumer confidence index improved to 69.0 points, exceeding the forecast.
Meanwhile, the attention of market participants is focused on data from China, published over the weekend. China's industrial production slowed to 4.5% in August against the expected 4.8%, retail sales fell to 2.1% with a forecast of 2.5%, and investment in the urban sector fell to 3.4%.
On Thursday, a report on the Australian labor market is expected, which may show a slowdown in employment growth from 58.2 thousand to 30.8 thousand, while the unemployment rate will remain at 4.2%. RBA Chief Economist Sarah Hunter noted that population growth is outpacing job expansion, which, combined with reduced working hours, could influence further decisions by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Recall that the interest rate was raised to a 12-year high of 4.35%.
The main forex indicators on the daily chart do not give unambiguous signals. The Bollinger bands are narrowing, which indicates a mixed trading dynamics. The MACD turns up, signaling a purchase, and the Stochastic indicates a possible overbought.
We consider long positions when the level of 0.6732 breaks up with a target of 0.6800. We will set the stop loss at 0.6700.
Sales are relevant in case of a breakdown down to the level of 0.6700. The target is 0.6642. We will place the stop loss at 0.6732.