FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on October 29, 2024In 2016, Donald Trump was treated with skepticism, but by 2024 his potential return raises serious concerns. The memories of how resolutely he fulfilled his election promises give investors a clear idea of his possible actions. And this is an increase in protectionism, a demographic shock and a significant expansion in the issuance of treasury bonds to cover fiscal policy flaws. These risks limit the growth of EUR/USD, as any attempts to lift the pair are immediately used for sales.The prospect of a new round of trade barriers and a long-term period of high rates when Trump returns to the White House raises concerns, especially in countries with vulnerable economies. Trump may impose tariffs of 60% on Chinese imports, which will be even more destructive than 10% tariffs for other countries. If trade restrictions are tightened, Beijing will redirect exports worth $420 billion to other regions, mainly to Europe, which could lead to a new trade war.The market has already reacted to this prospect. Since the beginning of the year, the European index of U.S. tariff-sensitive stocks has fallen 2%, despite an 8% rise in the broader stock index.The political background is also playing on Trump's side. Hurricanes such as the devastating Helen, as well as the subsequent Milton, along with strikes, may negatively affect employment in the United States in October. Experts expect an increase of 125 thousand, which is significantly less than the September increase of 254 thousand, and the actual data may be even lower. Republicans will seek to use weak statistics to highlight economic problems under Joe Biden's presidency.In case of weak data on non-farm payrolls, traders can quickly buy EUR/USD. Given the expectations of an acceleration in European inflation from 1.7% to 1.9%, a temporary rise in the pair is possible, but its chances of a trend reversal remain low. Trump's policy may raise the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds above 5%, which will strengthen the dollar.Trump's fiscal incentives could increase the national debt to 116% of GDP, whereas under Kamala Harris this figure will probably remain below 109%.The forex trading strategy assumes the consolidation of EURUSD within the range of 1.0745-1.0865, therefore, intraday transactions become relevant, taking into account the economic calendar.EUR/USD Technical analysisEUR/USD is trading in a short-term downtrend. Yesterday, sellers tried to break through the Target zone of 1.0794 - 1.0777, but without success. At the same time, one of the tenets of forex currency trading says that if an asset does not go in one direction, then it is highly likely that it will start moving in the opposite direction. Therefore, an upward correction may begin today.In case of an upward correction, the pair will probably try to test the resistance areas 1.0884 - 1.0873 and 1.0946 - 1.0929. From these levels, new sales can be considered with the main target at 1.0761.