FOREX Fundamental analysis on March 13, 2024The report on February inflation in the United States exceeded analysts' expectations, but did not cause panic among investors. After the release of the data, stock indexes reached historical highs, and the EURUSD exchange rate showed amplitude fluctuations. The futures market has slightly reduced the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in June from 71% to 66%, but it nevertheless remains quite high. Summer is already on the way, and the prospect of the dollar is still quite vague.The growth of monthly inflation by 0.4% was in line with the forecasts of Bloomberg experts. The annual rate of 3.2% exceeded expectations of 3.1%. Core inflation slowed to 3.8% (YoY), which is also higher than the forecast of 3.7%. And the growth of 0.4% (mom) is higher than the expected 0.3%. Despite the stability of the overall downward trend in inflation, data for January and February indicate that the Federal Reserve's struggle with prices may be more difficult. As you know, it is easier to reset inflation from 9% to 3% than from 3% to 2%.For the EURUSD bears, the bad news was a slowdown in the growth of prices for services from 0.8% to 0.5% (mom). In addition, according to calculations by Citigroup and Morgan Stanley, the main PCE – the core inflation indicator for the Fed in February will rise by 0.2-0.3%, which is lower than January's +0.42%.According to former head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Eric Rosengren. The central bank is still counting on three acts of monetary expansion in 2024, starting in June. However, the updated FOMC forecast, which will be presented at the March 19-20 meeting, will show whether this is really the case.Although the expectations for the rate have not changed much, changes in the Fed's estimates may seriously affect the EURUSD. If the Federal Reserve decides to change its mind, given the stronger-than-expected US economy and accelerating inflation, this may lead to a change in the regulator's plans for the course of monetary policy. If the number of easing acts is reduced to two, the US dollar may show its strength.At the same time, the US inflation report has to some extent prevented the flight of the EURUSD bears. If the data had been as expected in Bloomberg, the pair could have risen above the 1.1 level. However, the risks of new consumer price highs still exist, which may mean a slower easing of the Fed's monetary policy than financial markets assume. In this case, the US dollar will still prove itself in forex currency trading.If EURUSD fails to gain a foothold above $1.0915, this will be a signal to build up short positions formed from $1.097. However, before the FOMC meeting on March 19-20, I consider consolidation in the range of 1.088-1.097 to be the most realistic scenario for EURUSD.EUR/USD technical analysisEUR/USD is developing a correction of the short-term upward trend. The day before, the pair tested support in the area of 1.0897 - 1.0888, but unsuccessfully. Today, the bears will probably want to repeat yesterday's attempt.The failure of sellers will build a Double Bottom figure on the chart. In this case, after the signals appear, it is advisable to open purchases with the prospect of moving to the maximum from March 8. If the bears pass the support zone of 1.0897 - 1.0888, then their next target will be the area within the boundaries of 1.0855 - 1.0842. However, the boundary of the trend channel also runs here, which is an additional argument in favor of long positions.