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BANK OF JAPAN EXPECTS MODEST ECONOMIC RECOVERY

The head of the Japanese Central Bank, Haruhiko Kuroda, said that the country's economy will grow thanks to a gradual recovery in global demand. However, this economic growth is likely to be modest. The coronavirus pandemic continues to have a negative impact on the Japanese economy. Since the fall of last year, the increase in the number of diseases in the country has accelerated, which puts pressure on the consumption of services. Haruhiko Kuroda noted that in two of the nine regions of the country, the situation remains very difficult. The quarterly report of the Japanese Central Bank shows a growing discrepancy between the state of exporting companies and companies engaged in retail trade. 

The former benefit from the rapid growth of demand for Japanese products from foreign customers. At the same time, the retail chain is still under pressure from falling consumer demand. The report notes an increase in sales of Japanese cars against the background of the recovery of the car market in the United States. Smartphone manufacturers are also showing good dynamics. The Japanese economy managed to recover from the downturn due to the growth of export orders. However, weak vaccination rates with an increasing number of diseases are clouding the economic outlook.

USDJPY is 108.83 and trend is bearish.

Trader Avatar Gelaton

 

View forecasts for USD/JPY

Other blogs by this trader

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have collapsed — what's going on?
Bitcoin fell sharply on Sunday morning below $51,000, losing about $8,000 (13%) in 20 minutes.The decline began at the beginning of the trading day, when the first cryptocurrency fell below $60,000. Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have collapsed — what's going on? Bitcoin has been losing more than 10% since the beginning of the day. Altcoins decline even more: Ripple (XRP) has collapsed by more than 20%, Litecoin losses are approaching 20%.The result of these movements was the liquidation of $9.12 billion in traders' positions over the past 12 hours. Bitcoin accounts are about half of the total value. During the day, the volume of liquidations reached $9.81 billion, which was the largest value in the history of the crypto market.The number of liquidated traders is estimated at more than a million. The scale of today's movement was largely influenced by the cascading liquidation of long positions, which is also evidenced by the sharp change in funding rates for futures on negative values.On Friday, the hashrate of the leading bitcoin mining pools fell sharply amid problems with the supply of electricity after explosions and flooding in coal mines in several provinces of China.Popular trader Ton Weiss, suggested that this news caused a panic in the market. He himself called this moment a good time to buy an asset.Analyst Willy Wu notes that the price and hashrate of Bitcoin have always been correlated, so the fall is associated with power outages in China.Larry Cermak, head of research at The Block, disagrees with these conclusions, suggesting that the reason for the drop was the natural exhaustion of the market and disappointment with the price of the Coinbase listing.In the network, meanwhile, rumors are spreading that the US Treasury Department is preparing to charge several financial institutions for money laundering through cryptocurrencies. The source of the information is called lawyers who are familiar with the plans of the working group of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.A lawyer specializing in cryptocurrencies, Jake Czerwinski, considers this information unreliable.The sharp growth of Dogecoin and other altcoins in recent days is a worrying sign for the entire market as a whole, as it indicates that at this stage after the successful direct listing of Coinbase, everyone who wanted to buy BTC has already bought it.
18.04.2021 Avatar Gelaton Read
BTC, ETH and XRP Price Analysis, April 16
BTC/USDBitcoin, 1H chartYesterday, the bears tried to push the pair below the two-hour EMA55, but support was felt around the 62000.00 USD mark, which helped the price to stay in consolidation.Late in the evening, buyers tried to restore the price to the zone of the absolute maximum, but met resistance on the approach to the level of 64000.00 USD. In an overbought market, it will be difficult for the bulls to continue the race. Today, weak selling pressure may be limited to the moving average of EMA55, but the level of average prices will not be able to contain a powerful bearish momentum. In this case, the price will sink to the level of 61000.00 USD. ETH/USDEthereum, 1H chartYesterday, the price of Ethereum managed to stay above the level of 2400.00 USD, and tonight the pair tested the level of 2500.00 USD, setting a new absolute maximum at the point of 2548.93 USD. Today, it is possible to increase sales volumes. In this case, the price of ETH will roll back to the blue trend line.   XRP/USDRipple, 1H chartYesterday, trading volumes on Ripple declined, and the price of XRP could not stay in the ascending channel. The pair moved in a sideways range with support around the 1690 USD mark. At volumes below the average level, buyers will not be able to test the psychological level of $2 per coin.  If today the bears push through the orange support of 1690 USD, the price will sink to the area of 1500 USD.
16.04.2021 Avatar Gelaton Read
AUSTRALIA'S JOBLESS RATE FELL TO 5.6% IN MARCH
The Australian economy is gradually recovering from the crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Against this background, the unemployment rate continues to decline. According to the country's statistics office, it was 5.6% in March, which is only 0.4 percentage points higher than the figure recorded in Australia before the outbreak of the pandemic. The number of new jobs was 70,700 in March. Employment reached a record high of 66.3%. At the same time, employment among women has already slightly exceeded the pre-pandemic level. Bjorn Jarvis, who heads the Australian Bureau of Statistics, said that the recovery in the number of jobs in the regions of the country is uneven. The leaders are the states of Washington and Queensland, where the number of jobs is already higher than before the crisis. This was facilitated by the recovery of investment in mining enterprises. The economic growth rate in these states exceeds the growth rate in other regions of Australia.AUDUSD is 0.7745 now and trend is bullish.
15.04.2021 Avatar Gelaton Read
Large funds on CME buy Bitcoin on correction
According to the COT (Commitments of Traders) reports provided by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) - for the week ended last Tuesday:Large speculators (NON-COMMERCIAL) reduced the net position for the sale of bitcoin contracts by 0.25 thousand contracts to 2.42 thousand. Large speculative players began to reduce the net position for sale after a two-week build-up.Small speculators (NONREPORTABLE POSITIONS) reduced the net position to buy bitcoin contracts by 0.30 thousand contracts to 2.05 thousand Small speculators began to reduce the net position to buy also after a two-week build-up.Hedgers (COMMERCIAL) increased their net position to buy bitcoin contracts by 0.05 thousand contracts to 0.37 thousand. Hedger operators are increasing their net buy position for the second week in a row, and for 3 weeks out of the last 4.Open interest increased by 0.54 thousand contracts to 10.49 thousand.The bearish index of large speculators (the ratio of the number of contracts for sale to the number of contracts for purchase) fell by 0.12 to 1.44 for the week.Summary: COT reports on bitcoin reflect the growth of bullish sentiment among major speculators. Large funds actively increased purchases, taking advantage of the corrective decline, which led to a reduction in the net position for a decline in BTC by 9% for the week. At the same time, the net position began to decline from the maximum levels for the last month. The continuation of this trend may contribute to the growth of the cryptocurrency.At the same time, large funds continue to increase sales, and some of them are hoping for a continued decline in bitcoin.Small speculators in the last week mostly reduced purchases. Small speculators have been marked by an increase in bearish sentiment, but this group of traders usually does not have a significant impact on the market.Hedgers have been increasing their net position for 3 weeks out of the last 4, aimed at reducing bitcoin. Among hedgers who trade more long-term, bearish sentiment on the cryptocurrency continues to grow.Note: COT report data is fundamental and is mainly used for medium and long-term trading. Large speculators, NON-COMMERCIAL (banks, investment funds) usually trade according to the trend. Small speculators, NONREPORTABLE POSITIONS-usually do not have much influence on the market. Hedgers, COMMERCIAL (operators, large companies) usually trade against the trend. The net position is the difference between the number of buy and sell contracts. Open interest is the sum of all open positions in the market.
28.03.2021 Avatar Gelaton Read
CME traders preparing for a EUR reversal?
According to the COT (Commitments of Traders) reports provided by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) - for the week ended last Tuesday:Large speculators (NON-COMMERCIAL) reduced the net position to buy EUR/USD by 0.8 thousand contracts to 84.4 thousand. Large speculative players cut their net buy position for the fifth week in a row. The net position is the lowest since the beginning of June 2020.Hedgers (COMMERCIAL) reduced the net position for the sale of EUR/USD by 0.9 thousand contracts to 129.5 thousand. Hedger operators cut their net selling position for the fourth week in a row.Open interest increased by 6.5 thousand contracts to 690.6 thousand.The bullish index of large speculators (the ratio of the number of contracts for buying to the number of contracts for selling) remained unchanged at 1.76.Summary: COT reports on the EUR/USD pair reflect some growth in bearish sentiment for the European currency. After a noticeable 3-week decline, traders slowed down this process, only slightly reducing the net position for the growth of the euro. At the same time, the net position has updated the levels that were the lowest for the last 9.5 months. The continuation of this trend may contribute to the decline of EUR/USD.At the same time, a slowdown in the reduction of the net position may indicate a depletion of the trend and a possible corrective rebound up.Note: COT report data is fundamental and is mainly used for medium and long-term trading. Large speculators, NON-COMMERCIAL (banks, investment funds) usually trade according to the trend. Hedgers, COMMERCIAL (operators, large companies) usually trade against the trend. The net position is the difference between the number of buy and sell contracts (the green line on the chart is the net position of large speculators; the blue line is the net position of hedgers). Open interest is the sum of all open positions in the market.
28.03.2021 Avatar Gelaton Read
US market: review and forecast for March 26. The story in the Suez Canal continues
Market day beforeTrading on March 25, US stock exchanges ended in the green zone for the first time in three sessions. The S&P 500 index rose 0.52% to 3,909 points, the Dow Jones added 0.62%, and the NASDAQ rose 0.12%. The financial sector (+1.58%) and the industrial sector (+1.56%) showed the best dynamics. Among the outsiders were telecom companies (-0.33%) and IT companies (-0.07%).Company NewsRestaurant chain Darden Restaurants (DRI: +8.19%) posted strong results for the 3rd fiscal quarter of 2021. Diluted earnings per share exceeded the consensus forecast by 40.2% to $ 0.98.Clothing retailer Gap (GPS: +5.01%) announced the sale of the children's clothing brand Janie and Jack to Go Global Retail. The amount of the transaction was not disclosed.Media company ViacomCBS (VIAC: -5.35%) at the beginning of the week announced its intention to place Class B ordinary shares and Series A convertible preferred shares in the amount of $3 billion. The funds raised will be used to finance capital expenditures. The quotes continued to fall and for the week corrected by 33.41%.ExpectationsGlobal stock markets are showing positive dynamics. European markets are showing growth after a strong start to the trading session in Asia. US index futures are also strengthening on the back of the growth of cyclical sector companies. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries have resumed positive dynamics and are currently adding 1.43%. Concerns about a third wave of COVID-19 in the EU remain, with a rapid increase in the incidence observed in Germany, France and Italy, but the movement of quotations still reflects optimism about the ongoing vaccination. The US dollar hit a multi-month high overnight. WTI crude oil continues to show growth after overnight losses and is currently trading at $59.78, but quotes still remain under pressure due to the fact that it may take weeks to unload a massive container ship blocking the Suez Canal. We expect that the growth of cyclical sector securities will continue, and against the background of a renewed increase in treasury yields, the financial sector will also strengthen.Asian stock markets showed mixed dynamics. China's CSI 300 gained 2.27%, Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 1.56%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.57%. Europe's EuroStoxx 50 is up 0.53%.Market participants ' risk appetite is growing. The rate on 10-year treasuries strengthened to 1.65%. Gold is trading at $1,725. Silver shows an increase of 0.88%, to $25.26.I expect that the S&P 500 will spend the upcoming session in the range of 3900-3950 points.Economic news and macro statisticsOn March 26, the monthly data on the personal consumer spending Index (PCE) will be published. The market consensus is at 1.5%, which corresponds to the actual level of February.Technical pictureTechnically, the S&P 500 is still in an uptrend. The bearish divergence in the RSI indicator continues to determine the short-term tendency of the broad market index to correct. Nevertheless, a positive signal in the near term is yesterday's rebound from the 50-day moving average at 3870 points.
26.03.2021 Avatar Gelaton Read
Elon Musk Again Sent Bitcoin to Growth
Bitcoin on Wednesday moved to growth on the back of positive news.The main growth factor was the news that the American company Tesla began to accept cryptocurrency as a payment instrument.The nature of bitcoin is such that its market needs constant news about new willing buyers to encourage others to at least not sell.Electric car maker Tesla on Wednesday began officially accepting bitcoin as a means of paying for orders on its website. The option is currently only available in the US. In the future, the company promises to consider the possibility of connecting crypto payments for residents of other regions.The fact that Tesla invested $1.5 billion in BTC, it became known in February. At the same time, Elon Musk's company announced its readiness to use cryptocurrency in the future.In the message of the CEO of Tesla on Twitter, it is noted that now you can buy electric cars for bitcoins. Moreover, the cryptocurrency will not be converted into fiat money. The giant will accumulate the coins received during the sale of electric cars.Musk himself admitted that by the end of this year, it will be possible to buy electric cars for BTC not only in the United States, but also in other countries.
24.03.2021 Avatar Gelaton Read
BUSINESS ACTIVITY IN THE EURO ZONE REACHED ITS HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE SEPTEMBER
The results of a survey conducted by Markit Economics showed an increase in activity in the Euro zone. The PMI, calculated for the industrial sector and the service sector of the region, rose in March compared to the previous month by 3.7 points. It was 52.5 points. Analysts had expected an increase of only 0.3 points to 49.1 points. The growth of business activity was recorded both in the industrial sector and in the service sector. The EUR zone manufacturing PMI increased 4.5 points this month to 62.4 points, which was a historic record for this indicator. Analysts had expected it to decline compared to the February level. The PMI in the service sector reached a record high for a 7-month period. It rose 3.1 points to 48.8 points in March. Analysts had expected the index to rise, but only by 0.3 points. The business activity index, calculated for industry and services in Germany, showed an increase to 56.8 points, which is 5.7 points higher than in February. The PMI in the German industry rose to the level of 66.6 points, in the service sector - to 50.8 points.
24.03.2021 Avatar Gelaton Read
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