Default in Russia: has it come or not? The CDS Committee is still thinking

The world economy is constantly changing. In December 2022 we were forecasted a terrible recession. But in early 2023, the economic data says otherwise: the markets have taken off and investors are looking positively into the future.What's Happening to the U.S. EconomyLet's start with the US. The U.S. economy is in serious turmoil. Take a look at the S&P 500 Index since the beginning of the year. Do you see this constant up and down movement? That's because investors have stopped believing in the Fed. And they think the Central Bank won't keep monetary policy tight. But let's see:The U.S. interest rate is 4.5-4.75%. In January, the markets expected it not to rise beyond 5%.But in January, inflation was already slowing not as much as experts had expected. That said, demand in the U.S. continues to rise. So the American consumer does not suffer from high prices. Especially since the U.S. has the strongest labor market in 60 years.The latest macro data show that the Fed has no reason to slow down its policy. So a rise in the U.S. market is premature.We predict that the Fed's fight against inflation will drag on, because price increases are steady. So the Fed rate will get to 5.25-5.5% and stop there. And at the same time, the regulator will drive the U.S. economy into recession. Otherwise, inflation in the U.S. will not be stopped. Most likely in March at the Fed meeting, officials will be tough. And then the markets will come to their senses.What will happen to the dollar in 2023.The dollar itself will be strong. Tough Fed action will keep the DXY near 100 points. It will be difficult to rise above the highs of September, as the policies of other central banks are getting tougher than those of the United States. Just look at the changes in Japan, where the era of super easy money is coming to an end. And the ECB's policy is also tough. So let's talk about the euro area.What's happening to Europe's economyEurope's problems are similar to those in the U.S., only the inflation rate in the Union is much higher. Investors and officials are happy to see that price growth in the EU is slowing rapidly: in October, it was 10.6%, but now it's 8.5%.Eurozone industrial production fell 1.1% in December 2022. The economy is slowing down amid high inflation, which is exactly what the ECB is fighting.The regulator raised interest rates by 0.5% in early February. The same increase is planned for March. And even then the rate will not stop rising. Such statements from the ECB have been trying to dampen market optimism. Where is the positivity coming from? Recession is likely to be avoided: the energy crisis is gone and the supply chain is recovering.Since the beginning of the year, euro zone blue chips have been rising as strongly as the U.S. market. But inflation is still high and monetary policy is tight. So it's too early to rejoice.In addition, the energy crisis can come back to the EU at any time. Because Russia is cutting oil production and OPEC is not going to increase production. Prices will go up - Goldman Sachs predicts oil at $105.What will happen to the euro in 2023The European currency looks stronger than the American one. Exactly because the ECB policy now looks tougher than the Fed actions. Which we have already talked about. Now let's move on to another global economy, China.What's going on with China's economyThere are 2 main topics of conversation in China right now: the opening of the economy after covid restrictions and tensions with the U.S.China has officially "decisively defeated" COVID. So restrictions in the Celestial Empire should no longer stifle production and disrupt supply chains. China's opening promises to be massive. The UN and IMF expect 4.8% growth, while Morgan Stanley expects 5.7%.During the lockdowns, the Chinese have accumulated the money to unleash demand. Household deposits exceed 100% of last year's GDP, The Economist noted. Inflation in China rose to 2.1% in January, showing a pickup in demand.Markets are counting on China to pull the entire global economy up with it. On its own, China has a chance to take off - the covid shackles will fall after all. But external pressures could stifle growth.High inflation in the U.S. forces the Fed to keep rates high in the economy. And that means business activity will slow against this backdrop, and so will demand for Chinese goods.We predict that the Chinese central bank may be stiff in its policy. The population has large savings, demand for exports is declining, and inflation is rising. And because of this, China's market growth may slow down. China is now highly dependent on Western demand and it is the main beacon for the Celestial market.What will happen to the yuan in 2023The yuan is also a headache and uncertainty. Will China be able to successfully open up? Will there be a global recession? It is still unclear how China will survive U.S. restrictions. The decline in trade with the U.S. is negative for the renminbi.But a big positive could be the use of the RMB in international trade. First of all oil. The more countries move away from the dollar and euro to the yuan, the stronger it will be.In the near future the yuan is unlikely to strengthen - there is nothing to strengthen it on. Even it will gradually decline: demand for Chinese goods is decreasing and geopolitical tensions are growing.World economic outlook for 2023The outlook for the global economy is not good. Growth is slowing - the problems are starting in the West and dragging the East with them. After all, economies are still very closely integrated, no matter what political slogans about the "polarity" of the world say.Markets behave ambiguously. And at such moments, distortions and inefficiencies appear - someone doesn't know something, someone doesn't understand something. You can make money or lose money on this.We make forecasts because we are constantly watching macroeconomics and market data. Don't take them as a signal to act, but as the opinion of our team. But don't forget - look at the economy and markets more broadly, don't let short-term fluctuations distort your perception and your actions. 

Today we want to look at predictions from a slightly different angle - who should we trust when it comes to predictions of the future? Who was right in their predictions for 2022 and who was totally wrong? Let's find out!Traditionally, let's start with Wall Street.What did the investment houses forecast for 2022?By the end of 2021, the value of the S&P500 index reached 4,800 points. The investment houses said the markets would continue to rise.The investment banks' forecasts for the S&P 500 index for 2022 were as follows:The index ended up down 1,000 points for the year, a drop of more than 20 per cent.Only two banks were "toxic" pessimists: Bank of America and Morgan Stanley.They did not guess the magnitude of the fall. But at least they pointed in a downward direction. Morgan Stanley was the closest to the truth out of all the investment houses.What is the outlook for banks in 2023?What is BANK OF AMERICA's forecast for 2023The main shock of 2023 is a recession. Bank of America strategists believe that for the US, the Eurozone and the UK a recession is "almost inevitable". The rest of the world, apart from China, will also weaken. In the US, the start of a "moderate recession" is expected in the first half of the year. However, as Bank of America writes, "there is a risk that it will start later". The bank strategists thus expect the first half of the year to be good for bond investments and the second half to be interesting for equities. However, this is as far as I understand, if the recession is not delayed, but starts in the first half of the year.With China it is different - it will wake up from covid hibernation. But very unevenly. Most restrictions will not be lifted until the second half of the year. Chinese equities are likely to strengthen.What about the S&P? Analysts at the bank expect it to end 2023 at 4,000. That is roughly where it is now...US rates are expected to fall by the end of 2023 - both two-year and ten-year treasuries should end the year at 3.25%. The industries which suffered from rising rates in 2022 could benefit in 2023.After a historically bad year for industrial metals in 2022, cyclical and long-term factors will lead to higher metals prices in 2023, with copper prices rising by around 20%!!!Oil, according to Bank of America estimates, will also remain high. Factors that will contribute to this: Russian sanctions (I wonder what they mean by "Russian sanctions" - sanctions against Russian oil or our retaliatory sanctions?), low oil reserves, China opening up and OPEC ready to cut production if demand weakens. The bottom line is that with all these factors, Brent crude will average $100/bbl during 2023 and rise to $110/bbl in the second half of the year.Long: 30-year Treasuries, Chinese stocks, gold and silver, bonds, US Small cap, European banks.Short: Dollar, US technology sector, private equity.What is MORGAN STANLEY's forecast for 2023So, the bank's strategists write: "The general consensus is that corporate profits will start to collapse in early 2023, followed by the stock market. But the economy has proved too resilient". So Morgan Stanley expects earnings to fall slowly - to spite the bears.In fact they repeat the forecast of Bank of America - they expect a delay in the start of the recession until the second half of the year.Attitudes towards mega-cap stocks are sceptical. Here's what they write: "At their peak in 2000, the 5 largest tech stocks accounted for 20% of the S&P500 index. These were Microsoft, Cisco Systems, Nokia, Intel and IBM. These same 5 stocks bottomed out 5 years later and already accounted for 5% of the index.At their peak in 2022, the top 5 companies accounted for 25% of the S&P500. Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Tesla. But are they heading towards 5% of the index now?"Markets underestimate the risk of recession, stocks could fall another 22%.By the end of 2023, expect the S&P 500 to be at 3900 - even lower than its current value.Like Bank of America, predict a rise in Chinese equities. Expect global GDP growth to slow in 2023 as central banks tighten inflationary pressures. The exception is China, where the spring 2023 opening should lead to a significant recovery in economic activity in H2 2023.What did the Wall Street Gurus predict for 2022?Many of them said a correction in the stock market was inevitable. But there were those who were wrong.For example, Buffett's associate Charlie Munger was betting on Alibaba. Those who followed Munger were clearly wrong.Ray Dalio also bet on China. He also advised to get rid of cache. Wrong too, in fact.On the other hand, his reasoning was quite lengthy, which is hard to pin down. For example, he did advise buying inflation-linked bonds.Larry Williams is another prediction outsider. He is a famous trader with 60 years of trading experience. He created a technical indicator, Williams %R, which is used to estimate the overbought and oversold state of the market. A cobbler without boots - he could not estimate the overbought market.Said that "All markets will rise and be higher than at the beginning of the year, but gold doesn't stand a chance".Who predicted the 2022 market?Jim Rogers predicted the problems of 2022Jim Rogers is Soros' former hedge fund partner Quantum. What did Rogers say?He said - verbatim - "something bad is going to happen, but I'm not selling anything yet".Rogers warned that the US market had actually been rising since 2009. It is the longest growth in US history. But the market can't grow forever, which means there must be a rate hike and a downturn in 2022.Silver, though, has been falling in value for most of the year... That said, it's unclear exactly when Rogers was going to buy silver... Perhaps in this first half of the year's downturn.In addition to silver, Jim recommended investing in agriculture. What does he predict for 2023?Recession, debt crisis, US-European disputes due to energy shortages. Rogers also does not believe in price ceilings and embargoes and believes that Europe will still continue to buy oil and gas from Russia - just in a grey area.Mark Mobius is another soothsayer of the yearPredicted cryptocurrencies falling in 2022, increased tensions between the US and China and lower markets in general"Expect the market to decline and don't panic," he saidHe also said that India would become the new China.Mark Mobius - worked for over 30 years at Franklin Templeton Investments, specialising in emerging markets - including Russia. He was even an independent director of LUKOIL. In 2018, he founded his own company.What does he predict for the year 2023A word on crypto. Bitcoin, according to Mobius, could collapse 40% to $10,000 in 2023."With higher interest rates, the appeal of owning or buying bitcoins or other cryptocurrencies becomes less attractive because simply owning the coin does not generate interest," Mobius said."Of course, there have been a few offers with interest rates of 5% or higher for crypto deposits, but many of these companies offering such rates have gone bankrupt in part because of FTX. As these losses grow, people are wary of holding cryptocurrency for the sake of interest."He is also an advocate of investing in India. He believes it is the Indian equity market that is most interesting in 2023.Who else has guessed?Saxo Bank with their crazy forecasts have hit the bullseye this year. Much of their shocking predictions have come true. They predicted a weakening of the ESG agenda, a drop in Facebook and other mammoth quotes, high inflation, weakening of ties between China and the US, and a new Cold War.We already talked about what they predicted for 2023 in one of the videos.The Rothschilds also got it right with their magazine The Economist. Remember the weird cover showing bitcoin and other assets falling down the rabbit hole. Now let's take a closer look at their covers.

The inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve is considered the most accurate sign that a recession is near. The norm is that yields on long-term bonds are higher than those on short-term bonds. When it is the other way around, that is the inversion. That is the case right now: the yield on two-year U.S. Treasuries is higher than the yield on ten-years.It looks like this on the chart. The difference between long and short bond yields is below zero. Gray lines indicate recessionary periods.The difference in the yield of 10- and 2-year treasuries. SourceWhy is the inversion happening?An investor thinks like this: "Soon there will be a crisis. The Fed will cut rates to support the economy. That means bond prices will rise. Long-term bonds will go up the most. So should I buy 10-year Treasuries?"That said, if the capital is substantial, the decision should be made well in advance - say, six months in advance. And so, when there are a lot of these investors in the market, a paradox happens: short bonds are still waiting for the next Fed rate hike, while long bonds are already starting to wager on a future rate cut.Inversion = recession?This indicator does not always predict it correctly. Also, historically, the time from inversion to recession varies greatly, from half a year to 2 years. If you spread out the maps, even that prediction is more accurate. And the recession is already "predicted" by macrostatistics and company reports.Rather, an inversion would only foretell the end of the Fed's rate hike cycle. That said, the first 2022 inversion happened earlier in the year, and now it has worsened - a record for the last 40 years.However, we are now living in the era of QE (quantitative easing) - which means long treasuries may be bought not by investors but by the Fed and/or the U.S. Treasury itself. In that case, "guessing on an inversion" might not work at all.So what about the recession?Without treasuries, it is clear that one is on the horizon:Business activity and consumer demand are falling;major companies are downsizing;the cost of refinancing is rising;the energy crisis adds to the problem;China "closed" on the covid.When will the Fed cut rates?On December 13-14 it will probably be raised by at least another 0.5%. And that's not the limit: the market is laying down an increase of up to 5%. The Rothschilds are even hinting at 6.789%. So, if your capital is small, it's too early to get into U.S. stocks.

Major online retailer Amazon.com Inc. will stop testing its automated delivery robot Amazon Scout, a company spokeswoman said, after the issuer realized that the program was not fully meeting the needs of its customers.The company is currently winding down or "refocusing" the program and will work with engaged employees so they can continue working for the organization, Amazon spokeswoman Alice Carroll said, adding that it is not abandoning the project entirely.Amazon began testing the all-electric Scout, which is the size of a small cooler and rolls down sidewalks at pedestrian speeds in Washington state in 2019, and then expanded testing to Southern California, Georgia and Tennessee.Amazon shares on NASDAQ were down 0.54% to $120.3 per paper in trading on Oct. 6, and corrected another 0.2% ($120.06) on the post-market.

Europe is heavily dependent on Russian gas, accounting for all of Russia's gas exports. However, Russia is far from being the only supplier to the EU; there are other sellers of pipeline gas: Algeria; Libya; Turkmenistan; Kazakhstan.In addition, from Algeria, Libya and the United States comes liquefied gas through terminals in ports.There are also three other pipelines besides the Russian ones. However, they were used in Europe locally, because they were less profitable. Accordingly, the infrastructure was not prepared for them either.Gas pipelines to EuropeTrans-Sahara Gas PipelineThis pipeline will connect Nigeria, Algeria and Europe. It currently carries fuel from Algeria and Libya to Spain and Italy and from there it can be transported to other countries.The pipeline capacity is up to 30 billion cubic meters per year from Nigeria. But the capacity of the sections going to Europe will remain the same. So, annual deliveries will remain at the level of about 10% of European imports.It is important that this pipeline should "live" for a long time: Nigeria has the 10th largest gas reserves in the world. So the gas in the Trans-Sahara pipeline will run out later than in other pipelines.This year, at the instigation of Europe, Algeria and Nigeria returned to discussing the construction of the pipeline, and they want to launch it in the first half of 2023. But since the regions of Africa are turbulent, and there have been problems with repair and maintenance of the pipeline on the Trans-Sahara route before, additional investments and a lot of time may be required for the pipe to be able to pump large volumes.At the same time, due to the conflict between Algeria and Morocco, 12 billion cubic meters of gas are no longer transited to Europe annually. If these countries reconcile, the EU could see an inflow of this gas again.Eastern Mediterranean Gas PipelineThe East Mediterranean Gas Pipeline is used to transport gas from Israel to Greece and Italy. It is a fairly young pipeline, it is supposed to carry 12 billion cubic meters of gas per year. True, the gas reserves in Israel are small - only 0.2% of the world's gas reserves, but there is still the Aphrodite field in Cyprus, which is due to start operating in 2024-25. This year, however, the U.S. stopped sponsoring its development because of environmental concerns and Turkey's involvement.Trans-Caspian Gas PipelineTurkmenistan has the world's 6th largest gas reserves, while Kazakhstan has the 15th largest. The Trans-Caspian pipeline will connect these countries to the Southern Gas Corridor. In its current form, its throughput capacity is about 10 billion cubic meters of gas per year. Turkmenistan itself currently accounts for about 1% of European gas imports.But even here not everything is simple: in order to increase the volume of annual pumping, it is necessary to improve the pipes that go to Europe. And the Trans-Caspian pipeline itself may be difficult to build. Not only that: according to the 2018 convention, Russia may prohibit the creation of new pipelines in the Caspian Sea for environmental reasons.LNGAlmost half of Europe's gas imports are now LNG. It can come by sea from almost all over the world, although it is most profitable to buy African or U.S. gas. But Europe's problem is that it lacks the infrastructure for LNG.Spain could become a new European gas hub. It gets a lot of gas from Algeria and is the most infrastructurally prepared to receive LNG from the U.S. or Qatar. 72% of all Spanish gas imports come by sea in the form of LNG. It is enough to build a pipeline to France so that Europe can receive global LNG through a hub in Spain, but that too takes time and investment.In addition, you also need to build and modify the infrastructure to use LNG. And if a country has been using only classical gas for a long time - like Germany, for example - its infrastructure is hardwired for pipeline gas, and it will be difficult to change it.Another problem is in LNG tankers. There are only about 500 ships in the world, so there might not be enough for everybody at once. Europe alone buys about 3 billion cubic meters of liquefied gas a week - i.e. approximately 6 million cubic meters in the liquid form. To transport them, more than 30 tankers are needed every week, and it is not known whether they will always be available. And as the Russian pipelines are being abandoned, the need for LNG will only grow. This means more tankers will be needed, because other foreign pipelines simply won't be able to cover all the falling out of Russian capacity.As a result, there can be a fight for gas inside Europe. Whoever puts up more bids, that's where it goes. As a result, competition between the countries through which gas is transited cannot be ruled out. This is also true for LNG, which is distributed by pipeline, and for long foreign pipelines. Not only that: there is also competition with countries outside the EU.Will Russia stay in the European market?So far, the three key pipelines mentioned above can cover about half of Russia's supply shortfall. There is potential for volume growth - but it could take years. And even LNG will not solve the problem quickly. It can be brought, for example, to Spain - but this gas can not be delivered to any EU country, you need to build your own domestic pipelines.Thus, Russian gas supplies to Europe will remain for the years to come, though the EU will try to buy it at minimum. But in the long term, Russia itself may have problems: its exports, company revenues and budget will fall. Moreover, the secondary sanctions against countries working with Russia may become tougher after new regions join the Russian Federation. As a result, one cannot fully rely on "friendly" partners either. More about Natural Gas tradingIf you are interested in Natural Gas analytics, we recommend you to visit the analytics page, where you can find the latest analytics on Forex from top traders from all over the world. These analytics will be useful both for beginners and professional traders. The Forex signals service makes it much easier for beginners to make their first steps in trading on the financial markets. The latest Natural Gas forecasts and signals contain support and resistance levels, as well as stop-loss levels.

Electric car maker Tesla announced lower-than-expected deliveries of electric cars in the third quarter due to logistical problems.According to Refinitiv, Tesla delivered 343,830 electric cars, a record for the world's most expensive automaker, but below the expected 359,162. A year earlier, Tesla delivered 241,300 units. During the quarter, the issuer delivered 325,158 Model 3 compact cars and Model Y SUVs to customers, as well as 18,672 Model S and Model X premium cars.The latter deliveries fell short of Tesla's production maximum of 365,923 electric cars, a rarity for the issuer.Tesla has set an ambitious goal of producing nearly 495,000 Model Y and Model 3 in the fourth quarter of this year, Reuters reported, citing internal documents.Meanwhile, Elon Musk demonstrated a prototype of the Optimus humanoid robot on Sept. 30, predicting that his company could produce millions of robots and sell them for less than $20,000, less than a third of the price of the Model Y.Tesla shares on NASDAQ were down 1.1% to $265.25 a share in trading on Sept. 30, and are momentarily losing 5.47% ($250.74) in premarket trading on Oct. 3. More about Tesla tradingIf you are interested in Tesla analytics, we recommend you to visit the analytics page, where you can find the latest analytics on stocks from top traders from all over the world. These analytics will be useful both for beginners and professional traders. The Forex signals service makes it much easier for beginners to make their first steps in trading on the financial markets. The latest Tesla forecasts and signals contain support and resistance levels, as well as stop-loss levels.

According to some experts, the coming years could be very difficult for the EU. It is possible that his economy will have to rebuild fundamentally. What will happen to the euro is also a question.What worries the World Bank?Its head David Malpass has named the factors that increase the risk of recession in Europe - weakness of the euro and high inflation. There are risks of a long-term decline in the growth of the European economy.The most important problem is the energy crisis. According to Malpass, it will take years for the global industry to replace Russian energy sources. And the EU is unlikely to solve the energy crisis quickly. The same LNG terminals in Germany are not expected to be built until the second half of 2023.All of this raises the risk of prolonged stagflation. It's all according to the formula: economy doesn't grow - stagnation, but prices go up anyway - inflation.Moreover: the main trading partners are not doing well either, and as a result, demand for European exports may be lower, and it will be harder to import. After all, China's growth is slowing sharply, and production in the U.S. shrank in the first half of the year.Negative forecasts multiply: crisis, recession, GDP declineDeutsche Bank is lowering its outlook for the European market because of the worsening energy crisis. The recession may be deeper and prolonged, analysts say.In addition, from the middle of 2022 to the middle of 2023, the real GDP of the Eurozone will fall by 3%, according to estimates of Deutsche. Of strong concern is winter, where there could be "an even steeper decline."ECB head Christine Lagarde also said that eurozone GDP could fall in late 2022 and early 2023. In the baseline scenario, the regulator still expects GDP growth of 0.9% in 2023, although it is still a strong slowdown: since the beginning of 2022, we have seen growth of 4-5%. And under the unfavorable scenario there will be a decline of GDP by 0.9%. And some of the conditions for such a scenario have already materialized.Not only Europe is under attack: what will happen to the world economy in 2023?It is possible that the entire global economy at risk of recession next year, say the World Bank. The wave of tightening of central bank policy may not be enough to curb inflation, but it may hurt economic growth. As a result, global GDP growth will slow to 0.5% in 2023, already on the verge of a global recession. And despite record growth in 2021, the global economy will never recover to pre-decline levels.What will happen to the euro in 2022/2023?If the EU economy slows down and is on the verge of recession and stagflation, the currency will inevitably weaken as well. Capital from around the world is now fleeing to the U.S., trying to find a safe haven there. And given the projections, the euro may not soon return even to parity with the dollar. And while, for example, the yuan is still supported by a resilient Chinese economy, in Europe the situation is worse.The energy crisis in the EU also plays into the hands of the dollar, but will weaken the euro. After all, the U.S. is one of the countries now supplying energy to Europe instead of Russia. They mostly import LNG, although higher prices on the domestic market may slow down these exports.Not only that, but European companies are shifting production to the U.S. because of expensive energy at home, the WSJ says. And if this continues, the European economy and currency could weaken even further in the long term. But the "greenback" will be just strengthening.In this case, the euro may not return to pre-crisis values in the coming years, it will continue to lose to the dollar.What to expect from the Euro in 2023?Most likely, in 2023 we should not expect to see a significant strengthening of the euro. And then we are in for more uncertainty. Although long-term trends are also against the EU currency. More about EUR/USD tradingIf you are interested in EUR/USD analytics, we recommend you to visit the analytics page, where you can find the latest analytics on Forex from top traders from all over the world. These analytics will be useful both for beginners and professional traders. The Forex signals service makes it much easier for beginners to make their first steps in trading on the financial markets. The latest EUR/USD forecasts and signals contain support and resistance levels, as well as stop-loss levels.

Major online retailer Amazon.com announced a wage increase for hourly workers in the U.S. that will increase the average starting wage for most front-line warehouse and transportation employees to more than $19 an hour.The company said the increase carries an additional cost of nearly $1 billion over the next year. Amazon is the second-largest private employer in the United States after Walmart Inc. Amazon employed more than 1.1 million people in the U.S. at the end of 2021. As of June 30, the company had more than 1.5 million total employees. Most of those employees are hourly workers who pack and ship merchandise or work in retail stores such as Whole Foods Market and Amazon Fresh.The company is also expanding access to a program that allows employees to get paid more often than once or twice a month, according to the statement.Amazon is facing employee activism and unions at some of its facilities, including a warehouse in Albany, N.Y., where a vote is scheduled for next month. The company is contesting an election last April in which more than 8,000 workers at the warehouse in Staten Island, N.Y., won the right to be represented by a union.Amazon shares on NASDAQ rose 3.15% to $118.01 a share in trading on Sept. 28, and are momentarily losing 1.47% ($116.28) in premarket trading on Sept. 29.