DXY: how will the Jackson Hole symposium affect the dollar?

FOREX fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on February 11, 2025Markets are strengthening amid news of new tariffs on steel and aluminum from the administration of Donald Trump. Prices for these and other metals have risen sharply, reflecting investors' concerns about a possible supply shortage. For example, copper premiums between New York and London reached their highest levels since 2020, and copper futures were traded on February 10. They rose by 2%. Similar dynamics is observed in other commodity markets, which accelerates inflation and forces the Fed to take measures to contain it. In such circumstances, the US dollar tends to strengthen.The US administration denies that tariffs could become an inflationary factor, arguing that sellers will be forced to lower prices to offset the duties. However, the experience of Trump's first trade war shows that even American companies that benefited from tariffs on steel and aluminum began to raise prices. Subsequently, Trump granted exemptions to some trading partners, including Mexico and Canada.This time, the US president has no plans to make exceptions. He intends to restore America's economic leadership at any cost, despite the fact that the country already has a strong economy: GDP is growing by 2.5%, and the unemployment rate is stable at around 4%. Although inflation has decreased from the peaks of 2022, it still remains above the 2% target. Rising inflation expectations among consumers and in the debt market indicate that the Fed may have to tighten monetary policy.These factors, along with the policy of "American exceptionalism", will support the downward trend in the EUR/USD pair, even if the market gets tired of the constant news about tariffs. This opinion is expressed by Manulife Investment Management. At the same time, JP Morgan believes that the new duties will not lead to a sharp strengthening of the dollar, as they will be followed by retaliatory measures from other countries.Most likely, the market has not yet fully taken into account the impact of tariffs on current quotes. Donald Trump may soon announce new reciprocal duties, which will increase uncertainty and support the dollar as a safe haven currency. In addition, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech is likely to confirm the regulator's determination to fight inflation, which will be a positive factor for the "bears" on EUR/USD.The Fed, which began the monetary restriction cycle in September, has gained time and can now afford a wait-and-see attitude until the Trump administration's plans become clearer. At the same time, the difference in the pace of policy tightening between the Fed and the ECB strengthens confidence in the continuation of the downward trend of EUR/USD. A drop in quotations below the level of 1.0280 may be a signal for building up short positions.EUR/USD technical analysisEUR/USD is testing key support for the short-term uptrend of 1.0304 - 1.0290. This area was retained by buyers yesterday. Therefore, new purchases can be considered near this area today, with the first target at 1.0366 and the second at 1.0442.If the support area 1.0304 - 1.0290 is broken down during trading, the short-term trend will change to a downward one. In this case, starting tomorrow, it will be possible to start looking for entry into short positions with the main goal of falling in the area of the lower target zone of 1.0166 - 1.0138. Interim profit-taking can be carried out at the update of the February minimum.

Gold analysis on February 10, 2025On Monday, gold was the market leader in the early session. The new tariff threats announced by President Trump have reignited concerns about a global trade war and sparked increased demand for safe haven assets. This contributed to a sharp rise in the price of gold.During Monday's Asian and early European sessions, thanks to a 1.5% gain, buyers managed to overcome the psychological milestone of $2,900, setting a new high. The current picture remains bullish, although there are signs of overbought conditions on the daily chart, which may indicate a slowdown in the dynamics for subsequent consolidation. Corrections are likely to be shallow, as market participants remain optimistic.Technical analysis for XAU/USDDespite the positive trend, the RSI and stochastic indicators indicate overbought conditions, which can lead to volatility and corrective movements. If the price falls below the range of $2,850–$2,870, it is possible to activate sell orders, which will lead to a decrease to the low of Thursday's session around $2,830 or even to the lower limit of the current price channel at about $2,813. After that, further decline may affect the October high of $2,790, as well as the 20—day simple The moving average is around $2,770. A breakdown of these levels will change the medium-term outlook.Forecast and trading strategyOverall, gold looks ready for a new growth impulse, but the continuation of the upward movement depends on the ability to stay above the range of $2,850–$2,870. If the bulls manage to maintain support in this range, we can expect a new wave of strengthening with target levels of $2,946 and $2,983, which is a projection of the Fibonacci grid, and then the key barrier at $3,000, which is an important psychological boundary.

USD/JPY analysis on February 10, 2025On Monday, USD/JPY continues to adjust in a downward trend near the level of 151.87. The yen is losing ground against the background of data from the Ministry of Finance of Japan, which showed a decrease in foreign exchange reserves. However, the hawkish rhetoric of the representatives of the Bank of Japan may change the current dynamics. After the interest rate was raised to 0.50% last month (the highest in 17 years) The regulator is preparing to further tighten monetary policy. This is due to the growth of corporate profits, labor shortages and companies' plans to index wages, which gives the central bank grounds to adjust the course of monetary policy.Japan's macroeconomic dataThe household spending index in December showed an increase of 2.3% month-on-month (after 0.4%) and 2.7% year-on-year (after -0.4%), which significantly exceeded expectations. However, a more rapid strengthening of the yen was prevented by the current account balance report, which recorded a decrease to 2.73 trillion yen from 3.03 trillion yen.Dynamics of the American dollarThe US dollar index is trading at 108.00. US President Donald Trump continues to stir up international trade, which supports the high volatility of currency pairs. The day before, he announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, which will have a particularly negative impact on the economies of Japan and South Korea— major suppliers of metal to the United States.A recent report on the US labor market showed a decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.0% in January (from 4.1%), despite a decrease in the number of new jobs in the non-manufacturing sector from 307.0 thousand to 143.0 thousand. The average hourly wage increased from 0.3% to 0.5% on a monthly basis, and from 3.9% to 4.1% on an annual basis, which exceeded forecasts. However, the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan fell from 71.1 to 67.8 points, confirming the continuing problems in the US economy.USD/JPY technical analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the USD/JPY pair is correcting within the ascending channel with the boundaries of 163.00–151.00, approaching the support line.Technical indicators reinforce the bearish signal. The fast moving averages (EMAS) on the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line, expanding the range of fluctuations. The histogram of the Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator forms correction bars in the negative zone, confirming the downward trendTrading recommendationsShort positions can be considered after the price has decreased and consolidated below the level of 151.30 with a target of 148.60. It is recommended to set the stop loss at 152.50.Long positions: possible after the pair grows and strengthens above the level of 152.60 with a target of 155.40. Stop loss — 151.50.The current dynamics of the USD/JPY pair is formed under the influence of macroeconomic data, the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and the actions of the US administration. Traders should take into account both technical and fundamental factors to make decisions.

During the Monday morning session, the USD/CHF currency pair shows mixed dynamics, consolidating near the 0.9100 mark and the February 4 highs. At the beginning of the week, the market remains subdued, as traders and investors wait for new drivers who will be able to set the direction of the asset's movement. One of the key factors of uncertainty remains the White House's trade initiatives. Recall that US President Donald Trump previously announced the introduction of increased import duties on products from Canada, Mexico and China, and also allowed the possibility of expanding the sanctions list to include EU countries and other states. The details of the new restrictive measures are expected to be announced in the coming days, which creates additional tension in the market.An additional factor influencing the dynamics of the pair remains the report on the US labor market for January published on Friday. According to the data, the number of new jobs decreased from the previous 307 thousand to 143 thousand, which was lower than the projected level of 170 thousand. In addition, the revised figure for December was adjusted from 256 thousand to 307 thousand. The average hourly wage increased from 0.3% to 0.5% on a monthly basis, exceeding analysts' neutral expectations, and increased from 3.9% to 4.1% in annual terms (against the projected 3.8%). At the same time, the unemployment rate dropped from 4.1% to 4.0%, which signals the continued resilience of the American labor market.The Swiss franc received little support after the publication of the consumer confidence index presented by the Swiss State Secretariat for Economics (SECO). The indicator for the first quarter recorded an improvement – its value increased from -27.0 to -21.0 points, which exceeded experts' expectations. On Thursday at 09:30 (GMT+2), investors will follow the publication of January inflation statistics for Switzerland, where the monthly rate is expected to remain at -0.1%, and year–on-year growth of 0.6%.USD/CHF technical analysis for todayFrom a technical point of view, on the daily chart, the Bollinger Indicator begins to draw an upward slope, while the price range expands in the upward direction, opening up space for price growth. The MACD indicator generates a buy signal – its histogram is located above the signal line. The stochastic oscillator also maintains a steady upward movement, being in the middle zone of the working area.Trading recommendationsThe formation of long positions is recommended after an upward breakdown of the 0.9130 level with a target of 0.9200. The protective stop loss level is 0.9100.Sales are possible after a rebound from the 0.9130 level and a breakdown of the 0.9100 support. In this case, the target mark will be at 0.9037, and the stop loss will be at 0.9130.

FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on February 10, 2025Surprise is the most important factor in a war strategy, and this principle works just as well in financial markets. When markets are closed and investors are relaxed, external events can dramatically change the balance of power and adjust forex trading methods.Over the past two weeks, dollar currency pairs have been opening with price gaps due to Donald Trump's sudden statements about new tariffs. Initially, the restrictions applied to individual countries, but then they were expanded to specific product groups. This was another blow for the euro, increasing pressure on the EUR/USD exchange rate.The introduction of 25% duties on steel and aluminum imports has received support from American businesses, which makes these tariffs sustainable and difficult to lift. Unlike the trade restrictions against Mexico and Canada, these measures are more long-term in nature. Investors are gradually realizing that Trump's rhetoric is not just a negotiating tactic, but a real pressure strategy. Regardless of possible temporary delays, trade tensions will only grow, creating the prerequisites for a further weakening of the euro. Those traders who reduced their long positions in the dollar by February 4 are now forced to rethink their forex trading strategies.In 2023, the United States imported $82.1 billion worth of steel and $27.4 billion worth of iron, while exports totaled $43.3 billion and $14.3 billion, respectively. The key trading partners were Canada, Mexico, Brazil and China. Trump justifies his policy by saying that other countries impose import duties on the United States, which means that Washington has the right to do the same. At the same time, the White House is more inclined to point mirror tariffs than to a single universal tax of 10-20%.This strategy forces trading partners to seek compromises. The European Union, for example, is considering reducing import duties on American cars from 10% to 2.5%, which corresponds to US rates. This leads the markets to believe that Trump is using tariff threats not for the sake of real trade restrictions, but as a negotiating tool to obtain more favorable terms. However, the situation is different this time.The US president has clearly outlined his goal: to increase budget revenues through customs duties and reduce government spending by firing officials. Despite the fact that the introduction of tariffs may initially accelerate inflation, this will not be an obstacle to the implementation of the president's plans. Even without trade restrictions, consumer prices remain high — the CPI index is projected to remain at 2.9%, and core inflation, although it has dropped from 3.2% to 3.1%, will still remain far from the Fed's target.A strong labor market allows the Federal Reserve to keep the federal funds rate at 4.5% for a long time. After the January employment data was published, the futures market increased the probability of a single rate cut in 2025 from 42% to 54%.Based on current conditions, Trump's tariff policy will continue to put pressure on the euro. While EUR/USD is trading below the 1.035 pivot, we will sell with targets at 1.012 and 1,000.EUR/USD technical analysisEUR/USD maintains a short-term uptrend. At the opening of trading today, sellers tested the key support area of 1.0304 - 1.0290. Before the opening of the European trading session, this area is being held by buyers. Therefore, from here it will be possible to search for entry into long positions with the first target at 1.0366 and the second at 1.0442.If the support area 1.0304 - 1.0290 is broken down during trading, the short-term trend will change to a downward one. In this case, starting from the next trading day, we will consider selling the pair with a target at the lower target zone of 1.0166 - 1.0138.

The new week begins with tariff threatsAnother wave of trade restrictions from the United States raises the degree of tension in global markets. Washington now intends to apply mirror duties to all countries that impose tariffs on American goods. Additionally, imports of aluminum and steel to the United States – regardless of the country of origin – will be subject to a 25% tax.Asian markets started the week in mixed mood. Aluminum and iron ore futures are showing a slight decline, the US dollar index is strengthening relative to other forex currency indices, and commodity currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars have started with a gap down. However, AUDUSD quickly recovered losses on the back of positive macroeconomic data from China. The rise in inflation in China to a five-month high, caused by increased consumption during the New Year celebrations, supported the Australian currency.At the same time, the Australian stock market was unenthusiastic about the tariffs, and FTSE futures gained slightly. The recovery in oil prices caused by new US sanctions against Iranian exports and favorable inflation data in China helped partially offset the negative effect of falling metal prices. In this regard, positive news from China can create support for American raw materials and stop the recent decline in oil prices, which has brought quotations to the critical level of $70 per barrel.The "anti-goldilocks" effectFriday's employment report in the United States turned out to be far from the ideal "goldilocks" scenario, in which the economy is growing moderately and inflation remains under control. The number of new jobs turned out to be lower than expected, but at the same time, wage growth accelerated. The revised annual employment estimate showed a reduction of 600,000 jobs, which was in line with expectations.The combination of slowing job creation with rising wages did not inspire representatives of the Fed's dovish wing. The yield on 2-year US Treasury bonds jumped to 4.30%, while the 10-year yield exceeded 4.50%. Additionally, the growing share of foreign labor in the American economy may be at risk in the context of the Trump administration's migration policy.The problems are compounded by the growing debt of American households. According to the latest data from the Fed, the rate of credit card defaults remains high. In such circumstances, it is difficult to predict the future policy of the regulator. The key event of the week will be Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's semi-annual speech on Tuesday and Wednesday. Market expectations so far indicate that rates will remain at the current level until June, while the probability of a reduction in the summer remains at 50/50.The economic growth of the United States is largely supported by a sharp increase in private and public debt. The mass deportation of migrants and the introduction of new duties may lead to an acceleration of inflation in the coming months. Additional pro-inflationary factors are the wildfires in California, which provoke an increase in car prices, and the outbreak of avian flu, which causes an increase in the price of eggs. As a result, if the inflation data turns out to be higher than expected, and Powell takes a cautious position, the US dollar will maintain high demand, which will put pressure on risky assets.Stock and currency markets: nervousness persistsEquity markets reacted to the "anti-goldilocks" employment report without optimism. The S&P 500 index declined by 0.95%, while the Nasdaq 100 lost 1.30%. The disappointment intensified after the reports of the largest technology companies, known as the "Magnificent Seven" (Mag7). Despite the strong results, revenue growth slowed and investments in artificial intelligence turned out to be higher than expected, causing the Mag7 ETF to decline by 2% on Friday and by 2.41% for the week.In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index also adjusted downwards. The situation is complicated by US trade threats: Germany has recorded a record trade surplus with the US, making it a target for possible retaliatory measures by Trump. Although the risks of an escalation of the trade war between the US and the EU remain in the focus of investors, they do not yet dominate market sentiment.The difference in expectations for the Fed and ECB rates continues to stimulate the convergence of the European and American markets. While the S&P 500 has gained only 2% since the beginning of the year, the Stoxx 600 has grown by almost 7%. However, this trend does not change the fundamental picture: Europe's economy remains weak and the political situation unstable.The EURUSD exchange rate went down sharply on Friday and continued to decline in the Asian session on Monday. Despite the partial recovery, the outlook for the euro remains negative due to the divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and the ECB. The pivot level of 1.04, which corresponds to the 50-day average, acts as a key resistance, above which the pair's growth is unlikely.Thus, the new week begins with increased trade risks, uncertainty in monetary policy and instability in the markets. Investors' attention is focused on US inflation data and the Fed's rhetoric, which will determine the further movement of the dollar, bond yields and stock indices.

US employment data: what to expect?Today, the main attention of market participants is focused on the publication of the US employment report for January. Seasonally adjusted, growth in the number of jobs in the non-agricultural sector is projected to slow down to 150,000 (previous value: 256 thousand). Average hourly earnings are projected to increase by 0.3% mom, and the unemployment rate will remain at 4.1%.The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer confidence index for February will also be published. The volatility of this indicator in recent months is explained by the difference in views between optimistic Republicans and more cautious Democrats.Eurozone: Neutral interest rate analysisThe European Central Bank will present a report on a neutral interest rate, a level at which monetary policy has neither a stimulating nor a restraining effect on the economy. According to previous ECB estimates, this indicator was in the range of 1.5-2.0%, however, according to the latest data, it may be revised upward to 1.75-2.25%.Germany: industrial productionGerman industrial production data for December will also be released today. Investors hope to see signs of a slowdown in the recession, which was previously reflected in the dynamics of the purchasing Managers' Index (PMI).Sweden: Public Finance reportThe Swedish National Debt Office will publish data on the state of public finances for January 2025. In the previous two months, there was a significant deterioration in the indicators, which led to an increase in the need for borrowing by SEK 26 billion compared to November forecasts. Additionally, the latest data on real estate prices will be published.Economic newsUSA: slowing labor productivity growthIn the fourth quarter, labor productivity growth in the non-agricultural sector slowed to 1.2% (forecast: 1.4%, previous value: 2.3%). Although this indicator remains volatile, the growth rate has approached pre-pandemic levels (about 1%). This may indicate a structural slowdown in the economy, forcing companies to either shift rising wage costs into prices or reduce margins.United Kingdom: The Bank of England lowered the rateThe Bank of England lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%, which was in line with market expectations. The decision was made by a majority vote (7-2), with the most hawkish member of the committee, Catherine Mann, voting for the reduction for the first time.Sweden: unexpected rise in inflationPreliminary data on inflation in Sweden (excluding energy) for January showed an increase of 2.7% yoy (forecast: 2.1%, previous value: 2.0%), which significantly exceeded market expectations and forecasts of the Riksbank. The final data will be published next week, and they will have an impact on further monetary policy decisions.Eurozone: retail sales declineRetail sales in the eurozone decreased by 0.2% mom in December (forecast: -0.1%, previous value: +0.1%), however, the annual growth was 1.9%. This raises questions about the prospects of consumer demand as the main driver of the region's GDP growth in 2025.Czech: interest rate reductionThe Central Bank of the Czech Republic lowered its key rate by 25 bps to 3.75%, despite the unexpectedly high inflation rate released earlier in the day. This confirms the regulator's commitment to easing monetary policy.Stock markets: investor optimismGlobal stock indexes ended the day with growth, and the MSCI World Index updated its historical maximum. The main drivers were positive corporate reporting and reduced volatility. The VIX index dropped to 15.5. European markets have shown strong momentum, with the German DAX up more than 10% since the beginning of the year.In the American market:• Dow Jones dropped 0.3%• S&P 500 rose 0.4%• Nasdaq added 0.5%• Russell 2000 lost 0.4%There is a mixed dynamic in Asia, with Chinese stocks leading the way in terms of growth.Bond markets and the foreign exchange marketDebt marketEuropean bond yields remained stable in anticipation of today's report on the US labor market. The Bank of England's decision to cut the rate by 25 bps had no significant impact on other markets.The foreign exchange marketToday, traders' main attention is focused on employment data in the United States. Main movements:• EUR/USD remains near 1.04• USD/JPY continues to decline below 152• GBP/USD dropped below 1.24 after the Bank of England's decision, but then recovered• The Swedish krona has strengthened due to unexpectedly high inflation• EUR/SEK decreased from 11.35 to 11.31• EUR/NOK fell from 11.70 to 11.64ConclusionsToday's macroeconomic data can be key triggers for market movements. The focus is on the US employment report and the revision of the neutral ECB rate. In the coming days, the dynamics of the currency and debt markets will depend on the interpretation of these data by market participants and their impact on the monetary policy prospects of the leading Central banks.

The GBP/USD pair showed a slight decline during the Friday morning trading session, consolidating near 1.2425. Market activity remains low, as bidders prefer to refrain from new positions before the publication of the January report on the US labor market, which will be released today at 15:30 (GMT+2).Analysts predict that the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector will decrease from 256.0 thousand to 170.0 thousand. The average hourly wage in annual terms may adjust from 3.9% to 3.8%, and in monthly terms will remain at 0.3%. The unemployment rate is likely to remain at 4.1%. These data indicate a slight slowdown in the labor market, but overall it remains resilient to the Fed's current monetary policy.The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Austan Goolsbee, warned that it would be a mistake to ignore potential inflationary pressures from higher trade tariffs. He referred to the experience of the COVID-19 pandemic and noted that the Trump administration's trade policy could lead to a more significant increase in consumer prices than in his first term.UK dataToday, British investors will pay attention to the January house price index from Halifax Bank Plc. The indicator is expected to grow by 0.2% on a monthly basis after a decrease of 0.2% in the previous month.In addition, the market is discussing the results of the last meeting of the Bank of England. As expected, the regulator lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%. Seven of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee supported the decision, while two favored a 50 basis point cut. The head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, stressed that further decisions will depend on macroeconomic statistics and the general background.UK inflation continues to decline, reaching 2.5% in the fourth quarter. However, the regulator warned that the positive trend could be disrupted in the middle of the year due to rising energy and utility prices. Inflation is expected to return to the 2.0% target no earlier than the fourth quarter of 2027.Technical analysis of GBP/USD for todayOn the daily chart, the Bollinger indicator is attempting a horizontal reversal, which indicates a narrowing of the price range and a mixed trading pattern. The MACD indicator is declining, forming a new bearish signal. Stochastic, having retreated from the maximum values, turned down, which increases the likelihood of further decline in the short term.Trading recommendations- Short positions: can be considered after a confident breakdown down to the 1.2400 level with a target of 1.2300. It is recommended to set the stop loss at 1.2450.- The signal for purchases will be the return of bullish dynamics and an upward breakout of the 1.2450 level. The target will be 1.2550. We will place the stop loss at 1.2400.