FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on November 8, 2024
Donald Trump is famous for his activity on social networks. In his first term as president, he even earned the nickname "the king of social media." However, until he officially takes office, his statements may remain only pre-election rhetoric. In this regard, some investors decided to record profits on assets that were promoted as part of the "trump trade", which led to a decrease in the EUR/USD exchange rate.
In the coming months, investors will be watching the real actions of Donald Trump to understand whether his high-profile campaign promises will come true: whether new duties will be introduced, taxes will be reduced and how these changes correspond to his aggressive rhetoric. Aren't the expectations of "Trump trade" too high?
Even more pressure on EUR/USD was exerted by the Fed's statement that Trump's second term would not affect the Central Bank's policy in any way. Jerome Powell stressed that the regulator relies only on facts, not on assumptions about possible decisions of the administration and, moreover, not on shouts from the White Duma.
After Jerome Powell's last press conference, the chances of an interest rate cut to 3.75% by the end of the cycle decreased from 34% to 18% (previously they were 55%). Citi now forecasts a rate cut to 3.6%, while Nomura expects only one change in 2025, instead of the estimated four.
Thus, the markets are questioning the independence of the Fed's decisions. In the eyes of investors, Trump's proposed tariffs, tax incentives and immigration policies may increase inflation and force the Fed to reconsider its approach, which will ultimately strengthen the dollar.
Time passes from the moment of the election to the real implementation of the new president's political plans. Donald Trump will take office in a few weeks, and the gap between words and actions may cause a pullback in the "trump trade" and a correction in EUR/USD.
The forex trading strategy for EUR/USD suggests that, against the background of growing confidence in Trump's actions, the rollback of the currency pair creates a good opportunity to form short positions with targets at the levels of 1.06 and 1.05.
EUR/USD Technical analysis
On Thursday, EUR/USD was adjusted within the framework of a short-term downtrend and reached the resistance area (A) 1.0805 - 1.0794. This area was held by sellers. Therefore, from this area we will consider short positions with the first target at 1.0744 and the second at 1.0682.
If the resistance area (A) is broken up during trading, the correction will continue to the trend boundary of 1.0867 - 1.0850. We will also consider sales from this zone.
To change the trend to an upward one, buyers need to break through the 1.0867 level and gain a foothold higher. In this case, the target of the bulls will be the upper Target zone 1.1052 - 1.1018.
Fundamental FOREX analysis for January 28, 2025The US dollar experienced a real "swing" at the beginning of the year. The weakening of the greenback due to rumors about duties was replaced by a sharp strengthening amid denials from Donald Trump. The initial concerns of investors, who expected the introduction of harsh tariffs on inauguration day, faded by the end of January. Most experts have concluded that threats are just an element of negotiation tactics.However, the publication in the Financial Times about the plans of Finance Minister Scott Bessent to gradually introduce 2.5% import duties cooled the growth of the EUR/USD pair. The situation escalated after Trump's statement that 2.5% is not enough for him, and he intends to significantly increase tariffs. According to the president, this will reduce taxes for citizens, bring production and jobs back to the United States.Protectionism and interest in the dollar as a safe haven assetThe return of the protectionist rhetoric of the White House has led to an increase in interest in the US dollar as a defensive instrument. This was especially evident against the background of the large-scale collapse of NVIDIA shares. The news about the Chinese company DeepSeek, which was able to develop a competing technology in the field of artificial intelligence at minimal cost, literally shocked the market. NVIDIA shares fell by 17%, the largest decline since March 2020. During the day, the company's capitalization decreased by $592.7 billion, which was a record loss for the American market.The US stock markets rushed down, dragging the EUR/USD down with them through the correlation of currencies and indices. As the volatility of the US dollar increased, the European currency continued to lose ground.The European economy and the prospects of the euroThe euro was temporarily supported by unexpectedly strong January PMIs. However, experts attribute this to a short—term effect - increased exports to the United States many times in anticipation of new duties. Forecasts for the fourth quarter for the Eurozone remain restrained: Bloomberg analysts expect a slowdown in GDP growth to 0.1%.According to ECB President Christine Lagarde, the Eurozone economy is more affected by weak growth rather than inflationary risks, which allows for continued soft monetary policy. Goldman Sachs analysts emphasize that the European Central Bank is likely to continue cutting rates, which will maintain the downward trend in EUR/USD.EUR/USD Trading PlanAt the moment, the key pivot level for EUR/USD is the resistance at 1.054. At the same time, a breakdown of the support level at 1.0405–1.0415 will be a signal for further sales. If the euro can push off from this zone, a short-term upward pullback is possible.Current recommendationsThe pair sells at the breakdown of the support of 1.0405 with a target of 1.0300. In case of a rebound from the 1.0415 level, purchases with limited profits at 1.0480 are possible.The market situation remains tense, and the further dynamics of the EUR/USD pair will depend on US policy and economic data from the Eurozone. 
AUD/USD analysis on January 27, 2025The Australian dollar remains stable after the publication of the latest macroeconomic data. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector rose to 49.8 points in January (previous reading: 47.8), but remains in the stagnation zone. In the service sector, the index dropped from 50.8 to 50.4 points, approaching the critical value of 50 points. Due to the celebration of Australia Day, today's market activity is limited, and the further movement of the pair will depend on new fundamental drivers.The US dollar index remains near the level of 107.50. The dollar is supported by geopolitical events. US President Donald Trump has intensified his aggressive rhetoric on trade policy. On Sunday, January 26, there was a diplomatic conflict with Colombia over the deportation of illegal migrants. Colombian President Gustavo Petro refused to allow American planes to land, accusing the United States of improper treatment of deportees. In response, Donald Trump threatened to impose 25% duties on all goods from Colombia, with a possible increase to 50%. Despite the escalation, the parties quickly came to an agreement, which underlined the seriousness of the US intentions in matters of trade policy.Against the background of domestic statistics, the continued growth of sales in the secondary housing market has become a positive signal for the US economy. In December, volumes increased by 2.2% and reached 4.24 million homes against 4.15 million a month earlier. This indicates a partial recovery in the real estate markets, one of the weakest sectors of the American economy.AUD/USD technical analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the AUD/USD pair is trying to exit the descending channel, the boundaries of which are defined by the levels 0.6280–0.6140.Technical indicators give a buy signal• The moving averages of the alligator indicator are directed upwards, increasing the discrepancy with the signal line.• The Awesome Oscillator (AO) histogram has completely moved into the positive zone, confirming the bullish momentum.Trading recommendations• Long positions: open after the breakdown and consolidation above the level of 0.6330 with a target at 0.6450. The stop loss is set at 0.6280.• Sales: they will be relevant if they decrease and consolidate below 0.6260. The nearest target is 0.6140. The stop loss is at 0.6320. 
Today, the markets' attention is focused on the Ifo business climate index in Germany. Investors are interested in whether the Ifo data will support the positive dynamics unexpectedly shown by the German PMI on Friday?This week promises to be a busy one. Central bank meetings are in the spotlight. On Wednesday, the Riksbank (Sweden), the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve will announce their rate decisions. The ECB meeting will be held on Thursday. In addition, significant macroeconomic data is expected to be released - the preliminary GDP of the Eurozone for the 4th quarter, data on the GDP of individual countries, as well as preliminary inflation for January in Spain (on Thursday). Inflation data in Germany and France for January will be published on Friday. In the US, the key events will be durable goods orders (Tuesday), Q4 GDP (Thursday) and PCE inflation (Friday).Key events of the past daysChinaChina's national PMI indexes showed a decline in January. The composite index fell to 50.1 (previous reading: 52.2), due to a slowdown in both the manufacturing and service sectors. The manufacturing index dropped to 49.1 (expectation: 50.1, previous reading: 50.1), the lowest since August 2024. Chinese authorities said the decline was partly due to the upcoming holidays. Data on industrial profits were also published, which decreased by 3.3% in 2024.GeopoliticsThe United States has confirmed the extension of the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon until February 18. The initial agreement was reached in November, ending the 14-month conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.PMI in EuropeOn Friday, the key event was the release of PMI data for January. In the Eurozone, the composite index rose to 50.2 (expectation: 49.7, previous value: 49.6), indicating a recovery in business activity. The main contribution was made by the manufacturing sector, whose index rose to 46.1 (expectation: 45.3). The service sector PMI remained virtually unchanged at 51.4, supporting expectations of 0.2% QoQ GDP growth in the first quarter.UK PMIThe UK PMI data also exceeded forecasts. The composite index rose to 50.9 (expectation: 50.1), indicating an improvement in business activity, especially in the service sector. However, continued price pressures remain a challenge for the Bank of England. Despite this, analysts expect a 25bp rate cut at the next meeting on February 6..US PMIIn the USA, the dynamics of the PMI turned out to be mixed. The composite index dropped to 52.4 amid an unexpected drop in the service index to 52.8 (expectation: 56.5), while the manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, beating forecasts. In the manufacturing sector, there is a recovery in demand in both the domestic and foreign markets, which indicates stabilization.The situation on the financial marketsStock marketsGlobal stock indexes declined on Friday after eight days of gains. In the US, the Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 each lost 0.3–0.5%. Asian markets are mostly trading in the red this morning. The focus is on the technology sector, where concerns are growing about competition from DeepSeek AI, which could affect U.S. leadership in technology and chips.CurrenciesOn the Forex market on Friday, the EUR/USD pair overcame the 1.05 level on the back of strong PMI data from the Eurozone. Nevertheless, the US dollar strengthened due to the resumption of tariff threats from Donald Trump. The pound showed some correction, despite the weak start to the year.BondsEuropean ten-year bond rates rose by 3 bps on Friday thanks to unexpectedly strong PMIs, which lowered expectations for further ECB rate cuts.This week will be a key week for understanding the direction of central banks' monetary policy. Investors are closely watching the rhetoric of the Fed, the ECB and other regulators, as well as data on inflation and economic growth. 
The US dollar is showing moderate growth against the Swiss franc and is gradually recovering after a slight decline at the end of last week. At the moment, USD/CHF is testing the 0.9070 level for an upward breakout. However, pressure on the dollar remains, largely due to weak US macroeconomic data released last Friday.The index of business activity in the United States services sector in January fell sharply from 56.8 to 52.8 points, which turned out to be significantly worse than analysts' expectations (56.5 points). In the manufacturing sector, on the contrary, there was a recovery from 49.4 to 50.1 points, which exceeded expectations (49.6 points). The markets also noticed a decrease in the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan from 73.2 to 71.1 points.Market expectationsThe key event this week will be the US Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. However, most investors are confident that the regulator will keep the interest rate at the current level of 4.50%.Meanwhile, Donald Trump's rhetoric about interest rates and duties has again attracted the attention of market participants. On Friday, the president expressed a desire to see further rate cuts and announced a softening of his position on import duties. However, since February 1, new tariffs for Mexico and Canada still come into force, and last weekend similar measures were introduced against Colombia.Switzerland is expected to publish data on foreign trade for December on Thursday. The previous figures showed an increase in exports to 23.68 billion francs, while imports rose to 18.26 billion francs, which allowed the trade balance to reach a surplus of 5.42 billion francs.USD/CHF technical analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the Bollinger Band indicator maintains neutral dynamics. The MACD indicator warns of the weakness of the downtrend: Stochastic, having pushed off from the oversold zone (the "20" level), demonstrates a confident upward movement.Trading recommendations• Buy - a confident breakout of the 0.9075 level will be a signal for the formation of long positions with a target of 0.9153. Recommended stop loss level: 0.9037.• Sale - in case of a rebound from the 0.9075 level and a breakdown down to 0.9037, it is advisable to open short positions with a target of 0.8957. Recommended stop loss: 0.9075.The market continues to look for new drivers for movement. The key factors of this week will be the Fed's decisions and the publication of data on Switzerland's foreign trade. 
FOREX fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on January 27, 2025Donald Trump continues to be a master of high-profile statements, which often have little real action behind them. His strategy of "diplomacy under pressure" has repeatedly demonstrated its essence. As a rule, these are threats of large-scale tariffs or promises of drastic measures that are eventually postponed in order to reach a compromise.All this creates instability that resembles the situation in 2017, when the US dollar began to lose ground after an initial rise caused by the Republican's election victory.The example of Colombia vividly illustrates this tactic. After Bogota refused to accept deportation migrants by military aircraft, Trump threatened tariffs of 25%, which could rise to 50%. However, the reality turned out to be less dramatic - Colombia agreed to the US terms, and the tariffs were never imposed.Meanwhile, hedge funds and asset managers have been building up long positions in the dollar since the fall and have reached their highest levels since 2019. There are several reasons:1. Fears of trade wars and the possible imposition of tariffs immediately after Trump's inauguration.2. The gap in the economic growth rates of the United States and the Eurozone.3. The ECB's projected reduction in the deposit rate against the background of the Fed's stable policy.However, the market is starting to change its vision. Trump's words are loud, but his actions are not so radical. The unexpected improvement in business activity in the Eurozone stands in stark contrast to the slowdown in the US PMI. Reducing the gap in economic growth between regions is becoming a strong argument in favor of strengthening the euro against the dollar.Against this background, the market lowered expectations for the scale of the ECB's monetary easing from 95 to 88 basis points, which strengthened the position of European bonds, supported the euro and changed priorities in forex hedging. Three key factors that previously supported the "bears" on EUR/USD began to lose their strength. This led to the collapse of long positions in the dollar and triggered a correction of the EUR/USD pair.EUR/USD: how long will the correction last?The market situation remains ambiguous. On the one hand, Trump's threats to cut Fed rates and impose tariffs are undermining confidence in the dollar. On the other hand, the understanding that many of the president's statements remain only words weakens the effect of such threats.The probability of introducing some tariffs remains high, which may turn EUR/USD back into a downward trend. If we look at John Murphy's technical analysis, the pair's inability to gain a foothold above 1.047 or its rebound from the level of 1.054 will be a signal for the formation of short positions.EUR/USD technical analysisEUR/USD continues to trade in a short-term uptrend. At the moment, the pair is correcting downwards, probably to the support area 1.0429 - 1.0420. After testing this zone, it will be possible to consider purchases with the first target at 1.0471, and the second target near the January 24 high of 1.0521.The trend line is shifting to 1.0383 - 1.0369. If the price corrects to this area, then long positions can also be considered from it.If the pair gains a foothold above last Friday's high, the growth may continue to the Golden Zone of 1.0554 - 1.0545. 
AUD/USD analysis on January 24, 2025On Friday, AUD/USD continues to adjust upwards and is trading around 0.6315, showing moderate growth against the background of the weakening of the US currency.The Australian dollar remains neutral after the release of key macroeconomic data. In December, the index of business activity in the Australian manufacturing sector rose from 47.8 to 49.8, but still remains below the stagnation level (50 points), indicating a slowdown in the recession. In the services sector, the index dropped from 50.8 to 50.4, confirming the weak growth that has been observed over the past four months.Analysts at Bank of America Corp. Inflation is forecast to slow down in Australia in the fourth quarter. According to preliminary estimates, the consumer price index may grow by only 0.2% on a monthly basis, which will lead to a decrease in the annual value from 2.8% to 2.3%. The main factor in slowing down inflation remains the reduction in the cost of electricity.The US Dollar Index (USDX) is trading at 107.50, well below its annual high of 109.60. Investors' attention has shifted to the US labor market.Initial applications for unemployment benefits increased from 217,000 to 223,000 in a week.The total number of applications increased from 1,853 million to 1,899 million.Despite the inauguration of Donald Trump as president of the United States, there have been no significant changes in economic policy so far, which increases uncertainty in the market.AUD/USD Technical Analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the pair is trying to exit the descending channel with dynamic boundaries of 0.6280–0.6150.Technical indicators signal a possible increase:The EMA lines of the Alligator indicator are pointing up and approaching the signal line.The Awesome Oscillator indicator (AO) is approaching the transition to a positive zone.Trading RecommendationsLong positions: it is recommended to open when the price breaks and fixes above the level of 0.6350 with a target of 0.6450. Set the stop loss at 0.6300. Implementation period: 7 days or more.Short positions: possible when the level of 0.6280 breaks down with a target of 0.6150. The stop loss is 0.6350.The current dynamics indicate that the market is ready for a possible trend reversal, which makes technical levels key for determining the further direction of the pair's movement. 
The USD/JPY pair found strong support at 154.80, after which it was able to turn around and break through the important pivot resistance levels of 155.50 and 155.80, gaining a foothold in the uptrend zone.On the 4-hour chart, it is noticeable that the pair overcame the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from a downward movement from a high of 158.87 to a low of 154.77. Quotes also broke through the 200-period simple moving average (green line) and approached the 100-period moving average (red line), which underlines the growing bullish momentum.Resistance levelsAt the moment, the pair is facing the first significant obstacle in the area of 156.80, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the aforementioned downward movement.The next key resistance is at 157.30. A confident breakdown of this level can set the direction for further growth and allow the pair to reach resistance at 158.00. Consolidation above the last level will create conditions for the continuation of the uptrend.Support levelsThe nearest support for the pair is located near the level of 155.80. In case of further decline, the 155.50 zone will become the next key support level. If sellers overcome this mark, USD/JPY may fall to 155.00, which will increase the downward pressure.ConclusionsThe USD/JPY pair is showing a steady upward trend, but further movement depends on the ability to break through resistance at the levels of 156.80 and 157.30. In the event of a correction, market participants' attention is focused on the key supports of 155.80 and 155.50, which will determine the likelihood of a deepening pullback. 
In Friday morning trading, USD/CAD shows a moderate decline, regaining some of yesterday's strengthening. The quotes have gone down to 1.4335 and are testing the level for a downward breakout. Market participants are focused on the upcoming macroeconomic statistics releases from the United States.Today at 16:45 (GMT+2), investors' attention will be focused on the S&P Global business activity indices for January. A moderate correction from 49.4 to 49.6 points is expected in the manufacturing sector, while a decrease from 56.8 to 56.5 points is expected in the services sector. These data are unlikely to have a significant impact on the US dollar. Additionally, the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index will be published at 17:00 (GMT+2). The forecast is 73.2 points.The impact of monetary policyTraders' main focus is on the actions of Central Banks. Next Wednesday at 21:00 (GMT+2). The US Federal Reserve System (Fed) will announce the decision on the interest rate. Most market participants do not expect changes in the monetary policy rate, but the regulator's comments may set the tone for the dollar.At the same time, the Bank of Canada, whose meeting is scheduled for today at 16:45 (GMT+2), may decide to reduce the key interest rate by 25 basis points. This move will put pressure on the Canadian dollar. Weak macroeconomic indicators indicate the likelihood of such a scenario. In December, the consumer price index in Canada slowed from 1.9% to 1.8% in annual terms, and the monthly value decreased from 0.0% to -0.4%. Retail sales data for November also turned out to be worse than expected: the overall figure remained unchanged, while sales excluding cars decreased by 0.7%, instead of the projected 0.1% increase.USD/CAD technical Analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the Bollinger indicator indicates a flat, but the price range remains wide enough to match the current market volatility. The MACD continues to decline, maintaining the sell signal — the histogram remains below the signal line. Stochastic stabilized at the "20" mark, signaling a possible oversold pair in the short term.Trading Recommendations1. Sale:Open positions after the breakdown of the 1.4300 level downwards.Target is 1.4200.Stop loss is 1.4350.2. Buy:Consider long positions after a rebound from the 1.4300 level and a breakdown of resistance at 1.4350.Target is 1.4435.Stop loss is 1.4300.The current dynamics of the USD/CAD pair indicates the need for careful monitoring of the news background and monetary decisions of Central Banks, as they remain the main drivers of the exchange rate movement.