EUR/USD: tariffs and inflation are the main drivers of the pair

AUD/USD analysis on March 18, 2025On Tuesday, AUD/USD continues its upward movement and is trading at 0.6374. The Australian dollar is recovering after a short-term decline caused by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting last week. The weakening of the US dollar contributes to the formation of a stable upward trend, which allows quotes to stay above the interim annual maximum of 0.6400.Reserve Bank of Australia officials stress the need for restraint in further easing monetary policy. They intend to carefully assess macroeconomic indicators and the impact of the recent interest rate cut by 25 basis points.Meanwhile, the tourism sector is showing signs of recovery. In January, the volume of international trips reached a multi-year record: the number of short-term arrivals increased by 17.6% year-on-year, reaching 710,040 thousand. The short-term profitability of residents increased by 10.9%, amounting to 1.544 million Australian dollars. The total number of arrivals increased by 12.3% to 2.383 million, and departures abroad — by 16.3% to 2.031 million.The US dollar index is strengthening slightly and recovered to 103.10. The instability of the dollar is related to macroeconomic reports that did not meet market expectations. For example, retail sales in February increased from -1.2% to 0.2%, which was lower than the forecast of 0.6%. The core retail sales index increased from -0.6% to 0.3%, in line with expectations, but without having a significant impact on the market.AUD/USD technical analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the AUD/USD pair is approaching the resistance line of the ascending channel, the boundaries of which are in the range of 0.6500–0.6100.Technical indicators reinforce buy signals. The averages on the alligator indicator are pointing upwards. The awesome oscillator (AO) indicator has formed several ascending bars in the positive zone, which confirms the potential for further growth.Trading recommendations- Long positions: can be considered after the price rises and fixes above the level of 0.6400 with a target of 0.6530. It is recommended to set the stop loss at 0.6320.- Sales are relevant after the price drops and fixes below the level of 0.6350 with a target of 0.6200. The stop loss is 0.6430.

USD/CAD analysis on March 18, 2025During Tuesday morning's session, USD/CAD is recovering from yesterday's decline, which resulted in updated lows on March 6. Quotes are testing the 1.4300 level, while market participants expect new drivers to appear for further movement.Today at 14:30 (GMT+2), investors' attention will be focused on Canadian inflation data. The consumer price index (CPI) is expected to accelerate from 1.9% to 2.1–2.2% in annual terms and from 0.1% to 0.6% on a monthly basis. The base index, which excludes food and energy resources, may adjust from 2.1% to 2.2% on an annual basis and from 0.4% to 0.2% on a monthly basis.These data may put pressure on the Bank of Canada, forcing it to take a pause in further monetary policy easing. This trend is observed by most major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, which will hold a meeting on Wednesday at 20:00 (GMT+2). Although no Fed rate changes are expected, the tone of the accompanying statement may be more dovish, which will have an impact on the markets.The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has revised down its forecasts for global economic growth. The increase in foreign trade tariffs by the Trump administration could lead to a slowdown in global economic growth from 3.2% in 2024 to 3.1% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026.Sanctions and trade restrictions will negatively affect business investment and may accelerate consumer price growth, which will allow central banks to keep interest rates higher for longer. Economic growth in the United States is projected to slow to 2.2% this year and 1.6% next year, and in Canada to 0.7% in both years, well below previous expectations.Markets reacted to February data on retail sales in the United States, which showed a decrease from 3.9% to 3.1% in annual terms, which is worse than expected. On a monthly basis, the indicator increased from -1.2% to 0.2%, but also failed to meet forecasts of 0.7%.Special attention was drawn to the sharp decline in the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in March: the indicator fell from 5.7 points to -20.0 points, which is significantly worse than the expected level of -1.9 points.USD/CAD technical analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the Bollinger Band indicator is decreasing moderately. The MACD indicator retains a sell signal. Stochastic has reached its minimum values and is turning up, signaling the risks of oversold conditions in the short term.Trading recommendations:- After breaking down the 1.4250 level, we will consider selling with a target of 1.4145. It is recommended to set the stop loss at 1.4300.- Purchases are possible after an upward breakdown of the 1.4350 level. The target will be 1.4451. We put the stop loss at 1.4300.

In Tuesday's Asian session, GBP/USD is consolidating near the local highs of early November, around 1.2970. Market activity remains moderate, as investors prefer to wait for new drivers, among which the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting will be key.The Fed is expected to keep its key interest rate at 4.50%, despite growing concerns about the prospects for the US economy. Additional pressure on the dollar is exerted by the aggressive trade policy of the Trump administration, which is already affecting the dynamics of the currency and may lead to more serious changes in the global economic environment.In April, the White House plans to impose retaliatory duties on countries that restrict imports of American goods. This may also affect the UK, which has previously requested exemptions for steel and aluminum exports.After cutting the rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%, the Bank of England is likely to maintain its current level at its meeting on Thursday. The head of the regulator, Andrew Bailey, has repeatedly stressed the need for a "gradual and cautious" approach to adjusting monetary policy amid ongoing uncertainty both domestically and globally.At least two of the nine committee members are expected to advocate a further 25 basis point rate cut. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has adjusted its forecast for UK GDP growth: in 2025 it is expected to increase by 1.4% instead of the previously predicted 1.7%, and in 2026 — by 1.2% instead of 1.3%.In January, the UK consumer price index decreased from 0.3% to -0.1% in monthly terms, indicating a decrease in inflationary pressure. The index of business activity in the service sector rose slightly to 51.0 points, although it did not reach the forecast of 51.1 points.On Thursday at 09:00 (GMT+2), data on the UK labor market will be published. It is expected that the number of applications for unemployment benefits in February will decrease from 22.0 thousand to 7.9 thousand. The average salary excluding bonuses is likely to grow by 5.9%, and adjusted for bonuses from 6.0% to 5.9%. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.4%.Technical analysis of GBP/USD for todayOn the daily chart, the Bollinger indicator indicates a narrowing of the price range, reflecting the mixed nature of trading in the short term. The MACD indicator is declining, forming a sell signal. Stochastic has turned towards growth, but is located near the overbought zone, which indicates the risks of correction.Trading recommendations- Short positions: can be considered after the breakdown of the 1.2900 level down with a target of 1.2800. It is recommended to set the stop loss at 1.2965.- Purchases will be possible when growth resumes and the 1.3000 level breaks up. The target will be 1.3100. The stop loss is 1.2950.

Germany: voting on fiscal packageA vote on a package of fiscal measures is scheduled in the Bundestag today, and the document is due to be considered in the Bundesrat on Friday. The package is expected to be approved.CDU/CSU leader Friedrich Merz declared unanimous support for the initiative, but there are risks that not all party members will vote in favor.In addition, the Free Voters of Bavaria party may not support the bill when voting in the Bundesrat.USA and Russia: negotiations on UkraineUS President Donald Trump has announced plans to hold talks with Russian President Putin on ending the conflict in Ukraine. The discussion is likely to touch on the issue of territorial concessions from Ukraine, as well as the transfer of control over energy facilities, which Trump has previously expressed. At the moment, Ukraine has agreed to a 30-day truce.Japan: Bank of Japan meetingThe Bank of Japan will end its two-day monetary policy meeting overnight. It is expected that the regulator will keep the interest rate unchanged, as the unexpected increase in January, trade tensions and the strengthening of the yen have already had an impact on inflation. However, given the likely increase in wages this year, the Bank of Japan may find opportunities to raise rates further in the summer.Overview of key economic events and market newsThe situation in the Middle EastIsrael carried out its largest attack since the January truce, hitting several Hamas targets. Prime Minister Netanyahu's office said it was in response to the group's refusal to release the remaining hostages. Before the strike, the Israeli authorities held consultations with the White House administration.US retail Sales dataThe February statistics on retail sales in the United States gave mixed signals. The indicator of the control group increased by 1.0% (forecast: 0.3%) after falling by 0.9% in January. However, the overall indicator increased by only 0.2% mom after a 0.9% decrease in January. The exclusion of volatile categories improved the picture: the control group showed an increase of 1.0% against the previous decline of 1.0%. However, the effect of seasonal adjustments could artificially increase the growth rate, which confirms the decrease in the annual rate (+0.3% yoy versus +4.1%). After the release of these data, the EUR/USD exchange rate declined.The economic situation in ChinaThe January-February data showed a solid start to the year, although some weaknesses remain. Industrial production exceeded expectations, increasing by 5.9% YoY (forecast: 5.3%). This growth explains the recent rise in metal prices. A more important signal was the improvement in consumer demand: retail sales increased by 4% YoY (forecast: 3.8%). Despite the positive dynamics, the level remains below 7-8% of the pre-pandemic period. Boosting domestic demand is now a top priority for the Chinese government.Financial marketsStock indexesGlobal stock markets mostly showed growth. In the United States, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes recorded their first two-day gains since the record close on February 19. However, macroeconomic statistics did not support this growth. The Dow Jones index rose 0.9%, the S&P 500 by 0.6%, the Nasdaq by 0.3%, and the Russell 2000 by 1.2%.Positive sentiment prevailed in Asian markets, with the Hang Seng index reaching a new high since the beginning of the year. At the same time, Indonesia's economy is experiencing difficulties, which has led to the sale of assets and the temporary suspension of trading. In Europe, futures are showing growth amid expectations of a vote in the Bundestag, while American futures are showing a decline.Bonds and the foreign exchange marketBond yields on both sides of the Atlantic declined ahead of the German vote and amid relatively stable market sentiment. The EUR/USD pair was trading around 1.09, remaining close to last week's highs. EUR/SEK held above 11.00 as investors assessed the impact of increased government loans amid increased defense spending.

FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on March 18, 2025The euro continues to strengthen amid expectations of a vote in the Bundestag on changing the constitutional rule of the fiscal brake. At the same time, there are signals of a slowdown in the US economy, which also supports demand for the European currency. However, the EUR/USD pair faces the threat of an escalation of the trade conflict between the United States and the European Union, which could dramatically change the current dynamics.Friedrich Merz, a key figure in German politics, expresses confidence in the successful outcome of the vote, which could pave the way for large-scale fiscal stimulus. Germany's shift from strict fiscal discipline to more active spending can accelerate eurozone GDP growth, boost German bond yields and strengthen the euro.In the Bundestag, the coalition of the Christian Democratic Union, the Social Democrats and the Green Party has 520 seats, which is 31 more than necessary to amend the Constitution. This creates favorable conditions for the implementation of plans to stimulate the economy.The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicts that the mutual imposition of tariffs between the United States and the EU will reduce German GDP by 0.3 percentage points in 2025 and by 0.1 points in 2026. For the United States, losses will amount to 0.2 and 0.5 points, respectively. However, these estimates do not take into account the potential effect of the fiscal stimulus proposed by Friedrich Merz.Formally, the European Union is in a less advantageous position in the trade conflict, as it has a trade surplus of $235.6 billion with the United States. However, if the EU decides to impose duties on services where the US has a deficit, this could significantly worsen the situation. The total volume of trade in goods and services between the two regions is estimated at $2 trillion, while investments across the Atlantic reach $7.5 trillion. Thus, the scale of the potential conflict could exceed $9 trillion, which would be a serious blow to the global economy.If a pessimistic trade war scenario is implemented, there may be a surge in global inflation. The OECD has already raised its forecast for the consumer price index (CPI) in the United States by 0.7 points to 2.8% in 2025 and by 0.6 points to 2.6% in 2026. The organization also believes that the Fed's monetary easing cycle is over, although it had previously expected a reduction in the federal funds rate from 4.5% to 3.5%.EUR/USD prospectsThe pivot level for EUR/USD remains at 1.0910. A successful breakdown of this resistance will open up opportunities for further growth. However, if the rally is followed by a pullback with a drop below 1.0910, this may be a signal for the formation of short positions.

This week, the focus will be on negotiations on Germany's fiscal package. The package is expected to be approved by the Bundestag on Tuesday and by the Bundesrat on Friday. It is expected that the vote will be successful, but there is a possibility of disagreement between individual representatives of the CSU/CDU, as well as possible opposition from the Free Voters of Bavaria party.In the United States, President Donald Trump announced upcoming talks with Russian President Putin on Tuesday/The purpose of the upcoming dialogue is to find ways to end the conflict in Ukraine. At the same time, data from the United States on retail sales for February will be published. Investors are closely watching to see if the recent decline in consumer confidence will have an impact on retail sales.The Fed meeting will be held on Wednesday. The Central Bank is expected to keep the interest rate at the current level. Attention will be focused on Jerome Powell's comments on the prospects for easing policy, the possible end of the quantitative tightening program (QT), and economic growth forecasts. On Thursday, the Bank of England is likely to keep the rate at 4.50%, and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may cut the rate by 25 bps to 0.25% amid low inflation expectations.Key economic eventsGermany: approval of the fiscal packageIn Germany, the new ruling coalition has reached an agreement with the Greens on easing the Schuldenbrem budget rule and setting up an infrastructure fund. In general, the agreement corresponds to the original draft. Key concessions to the Greens include allocating 100 billion euros out of a total of 500 billion euros for environmental projects. The mechanism for excluding military spending in excess of 1% of GDP from the budget rule has also been retained, and now it includes assistance to Ukraine. The regional authorities also agreed to ease the "black zero" policy.The Eurozone: inflation indicatorsThe final inflation data in Germany, France and Spain did not bring significant surprises. While France and Spain confirmed their preliminary estimates, German inflation was revised down to 2.6% YoY from 2.8% previously. This factor will affect the overall inflation rate of the eurozone, taking into account the weight of Germany in the calculation of the index (28%).USA: Consumer sentimentThe University of Michigan recorded a significant decrease in the consumer confidence index caused by increased inflation concerns. According to preliminary data for March, inflation expectations for the year ahead rose to 4.9% from 4.3% in February. The assessment of the current situation decreased to 63.5 from 65.7 previously, and the expectations index dropped to 54.2 from 64.0. The further impact on consumption will become clear after the publication of retail sales data for February.Sweden: labor market and fiscal policyData for February showed employment growth of 0.2%, while the unemployment rate dropped to 8.9%. However, this decrease is due to a decrease in the share of the economically active population and an increase in the number of disappointed workers. The decrease in the number of temporary workers indicates a weak labor market in the next 6-9 months, with a possible recovery only by the end of the year. The ruling Moderati party has announced its intention to add 11.5 billion crowns to the spring budget package, part of which will go to defense. The final amount of defense spending is likely to be determined at the NATO summit in June.Dynamic of financial marketsStock marketsIn the absence of new threats of trade tariffs, stock markets showed growth on Friday. The Nasdaq rose 2.6%, the Russell 2000 rose 2.5%, the S&P 500 rose 2.1%, and the Dow rose 1.7%. Investors actively bought up previously affected sectors – technology, energy, banks and consumer goods. A similar trend was observed in Europe: the Stoxx 600 index gained 1.1%, while shares of banks, technology and industrial companies led the way. However, despite the growth, the overall dynamics remains weak: this is the fourth consecutive week of decline for the United States, and the second for Europe.Currency and debt marketsThe Swedish and Norwegian crowns, as well as the euro, strengthened against the US dollar and the Japanese yen in the foreign exchange market. The EUR/USD pair approached the level of 1.09, and EUR/SEK dropped to 11.00. The yield on US 10-year bonds remained at 4.30%, while German 10-year securities remained at about 2.90%.ConclusionsThis week, the key events will be the vote on the German fiscal package, negotiations between the United States and Russia, as well as decisions by central banks. The dynamics of stock markets remains unstable, while rising inflation expectations in the United States may affect the Fed's future policy. Investors continue to closely monitor macroeconomic indicators, assessing the risks to the global economy and financial markets.

FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on March 17, 2025The White House explains the current weakening of the US dollar, which has become the worst since 2008, as a natural correction. Scott Bessent, a spokesman for the administration, said that the dollar was significantly overvalued after the election, and the current decline is a natural process. However, the Finance Minister preferred not to delve into the reasons for this correction. The reality is that investors are losing confidence in Donald Trump's policies, especially amid trade wars and tariffs, and are beginning to shift their focus to Europe, where massive fiscal stimulus is being launched. This explains the current growth of the EUR/USD pair.Friedrich Merz, a key figure in German politics, managed to reach an agreement with the Green Party on the issue of expanding government spending. The final decision is expected on March 18, when the Bundestag will hold a vote. The markets consider this event to be even more important than the Fed meeting, as it contributes to the strengthening of the euro. A 50 basis point increase in German bond yields in March supports EUR/USD.The yield difference between German and American bonds has narrowed to 140 basis points, although three months ago this figure was 230 bps. Societe Generale predicts that by the end of 2025 the gap may decrease to 50 basis points. The last time this situation was observed was in 2013, when the EUR/USD pair was trading at 1.37.There is a growing view in the market that fiscal stimulus in Germany and the EU is not a temporary measure, as during the COVID—19 pandemic, but a long-term strategy aimed at accelerating economic growth in Europe. This increases the attractiveness of European assets and promotes capital inflows from other regions, especially from North America, where investors are disappointed with Trump's policies.If in November 2024 investors had high hopes for tax cuts and deregulation of US fiscal policy, which should have supported the S&P 500 and the dollar, then the beginning of 2025 was a cold shower for them. Trade wars and tariffs pose risks of slowing down the American economy, which can lead to serious consequences.The weakness of the economy negatively affects the stock market, and the fall in indices, in turn, puts pressure on GDP. Harvard University estimates that a 20% decline in the S&P 500 in 2025 could reduce U.S. gross domestic product by 1 percentage point. This is because the richest 10% of families in the United States are responsible for half of all consumer spending. If in 2023-2024 they actively spent against the background of market growth, now the opposite trend is observed.Prospects for the EUR/USDThe narrowing of the gap in economic growth rates between the United States and Europe, as well as the flow of capital from North America to the Old World, create the prerequisites for continued growth of the EUR/USD pair. The question is whether the current correction has ended. A break of the resistance level at 1.0910 may be a signal for new purchases.

Inflation data for Germany, France and Spain will be published today. These figures are important indicators for forecasting the overall inflation dynamics in the eurozone next week. They can provide insight into possible inflation trends and influence market expectations regarding the future policy of the European Central Bank.The main focus in Sweden is on the February unemployment statistics (LFS). Last month, the figure rose sharply to 9.7%, which was the result of a significant influx of disappointed applicants into the active workforce. However, they were unable to find work, which led to a spike in the unemployment rate. In February, a partial rollback is expected – a decrease to 9.2%.Economic news and market eventsGeopolitics: Russian President Vladimir Putin commented on the 30-day truce proposed by the United States, expressing support for the idea, but noting the need to clarify a number of details. According to him, before the agreement can be implemented, "key issues" need to be resolved, which indicates a low probability of an early end to the conflict.USA: One of the leading Democrats of the Senate expressed support for the Republican bill aimed at preventing a government shutdown. He warned that the failure of the vote scheduled for Saturday could create conditions for the strengthening of Donald Trump's influence.Eurozone: Industrial production increased by 0.8% mom in January (0.6% expected, previous reading: -0.4%). However, the three-month rolling average (3M/3M) for the period from November 2024 to January 2025 remains 0.25% lower than the previous quarter. Despite signs of stabilization, the PMI in industry remains below 50, which indicates that the recession in the sector continues.Germany: Political differences in Berlin complicate the adoption of the budget. Despite a constructive dialogue between the parties, negotiations with the Greens on climate policy have reached an impasse, calling into question the vote scheduled for March 18.USA: Producer Price Index (PPI) for February was below forecasts at the headline level, but the underlying indicator indicates sustained pressure on prices. PPI increased by 3.2% YoY (versus 3.7% in January), while the decrease in prices for services was offset by a moderate increase in prices for goods. Initial and repeated applications for unemployment benefits decreased, indicating a stable labor market, despite concerns about layoffs in the federal sector.Sweden: The final inflation data for February confirmed the preliminary estimates. Inflation significantly exceeded expectations, while the CPIF baseline excluding energy resources was 3.0% YoY. The main contribution to the unexpected acceleration was made by the prices of food and leisure services.Stock market dynamicsStock indexes have entered a correction phase. The S&P 500 declined by 1.4%, entering the technical correction zone, while the Russell 2000 index lost 1.7%. Nasdaq continued to fall for the fourth week in a row, falling by 2%. Yesterday's dynamics of the sectoral indices were mixed: leading technology companies (MAG7) were among the outsiders along with real estate, while cyclical sectors, including raw materials and finance, showed relative stability.The general mood in the market remains uncertain, as the sell-off is not caused by a slowdown in the economy, but by a revaluation of the value of assets. Futures on American indices are showing growth today, which may lead to a technical rebound in the absence of new negative factors.Bonds and the foreign exchange marketThe weakening of risk appetite led to lower bond yields and falling stock indexes. During the week, the yield on 10-year German Bunds rose to 2.95%, but then fell back to 2.85%. Similarly, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has fluctuated in the range of 4.15%-4.35%, and currently stands at 4.26%.In the foreign exchange market, the euro weakened against the dollar amid deteriorating market sentiment. The USD/SEK rally, which has been observed since the beginning of February, has stopped: the pair first fell below 10.00, but then rebounded to 10.20.