FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on April 15, 2024
Central banks resemble a pack, where the Fed acts as the leader. If one of the regulators decides to deviate from the general course, he and his currency will be expelled. The desire of the European Central Bank for independence led to the collapse of the EURUSD to the minimum values of November last year. Due to the proud statements of the members of the Governing Council that the ECB is not the 13th Federal Reserve Bank of the United States, the euro showed the worst weekly decline since the autumn of 2022.
The impact of the Fed's monetary policy extends beyond the United States. The size of the American economy and the role of the dollar in the global financial system, and therefore in forex currency trading, force other Central Banks to closely monitor events in Washington. After accelerating the growth of the US consumer price index to 3.5% in March and reducing the expectations of the futures market regarding the scale of the Fed's monetary expansion in 2024 to 2 acts, Bloomberg predicts that Central banks in developed countries will ease monetary policy by less than a quarter of the rate hike in 2021-2023.
One member of the ECB's Governing Council, speaking anonymously, told the Financial Times that it would be illegal if the European Central Bank acted on the instructions of the Fed. Another stressed: The Eurozone is not Switzerland. The ECB can work independently without paying attention to the euro exchange rate. One source close to the popular publication claims that only 3 of the 26 members of the Governing Council voted for a rate cut. The second, on the contrary, is sure that at least six colleagues were ready to support the monetary "pigeons".
It seems that the decision to start the monetary policy easing cycle has already been made. The head of the Bank of France, Francois Villaroy de Galo, said that this would happen in June, and several more acts of monetary expansion would take place before the end of the year. The futures market estimates only a 22% probability of the June start of the Fed rate cut, so the ECB is definitely ahead of the pack leader. And his currency is becoming a pariah.
So far, the euro has not fallen as much as commodity currencies or currencies used for funding. Moreover, in the third week of April, the prospects for an improvement in the IMF's forecasts for the global economy and positive US corporate reports may support the EURUSD bulls. The strengthening of global risk appetite may hit the US dollar as a defensive asset, while no one has canceled the euro's pro-cyclical status.
Nevertheless, the different rates of monetary policy easing by the Fed and the ECB have already led to an expansion of the US and German bond yield spread to the maximum levels of 2019, which is a significant factor in the weakening of the EURUSD. We sell the pair with growth in the direction of targets at 1.06 and 1.05.
EUR/USD Technical analysis
The short-term downward trend of EUR/USD developed last week. Sellers were able to break below the target zone of 1.0729 - 1.0704 and reached the next target - the Golden Zone within the boundaries of 1.0645 - 1.0636. The gold zone has not been broken through at the moment, so a further decline in the pair is not expected yet.
An upward correction of EUR/USD begins in the Asian session on Monday. If the movement continues, it will be possible to wait for testing of the resistance area 1.0714 - 1.0706. From here, we will consider sales with a target at last Friday's minimum.