FOREX Fundamental Analysis on October 4, 2022
The United Nations urges the world's central banks, especially the Fed, to stop tightening monetary policy, which is sure to end in a global recession. According to the UN, every 1.0% increase in the federal funds rate reduces the GDP of developed countries by 0.5% and of developing countries by 0.8% at once.
Thomas Barkin, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, said in response to the statement that the Fed cares about the prospects of the global economy, but first of all the regulator will follow the situation in the United States.
UN worries are not in vain. The JP Morgan Global Purchasing Managers Index fell to a June 2020 low of 49.8p. Global manufacturing fell for the first time in two years, though business activity indices in the United States remain above 50p, but also show a downward trend.
Market participants viewed the comments of the Fed's spokesman as positive news, suggesting that due to the slowdown in the U.S. economy, the Fed will slow down monetary policy tightening or even begin to adjust to a "soft" course. Stock indices returned to growth, which through currency correlations helped the EUR/USD and GBP/USD bulls. Sterling rose above $1.13 as it additionally reacted to the information that the Treasury decided to postpone the income tax cut for rich Britons. In addition, the Bank of England calmed the markets by resuscitating the QE program.
Investors decided that once the worst is over, there is no point in defensive assets. The year 2022 introduced quite a lot of events in forex trading. This includes the war in Ukraine, the energy crisis in the Eurozone, and galloping inflation. There are more than enough drivers for EUR/USD to fall to a 20-year low. Not surprisingly, the volatility of currency pairs remains at high levels, which allows traders to make good profits.
However, no matter who says what, but rising global uncertainty is a good reason to buy the dollar. It is unlikely that in the near future the greenback will lose its protective role, especially now that winter begins, and nobody can say how Europe will survive it. There are also no forecasts about the end of Russian aggression in Ukraine, nor about the consequences of the Fed's aggressive monetary restriction.
Investors are unlikely to get rid of the dollar, so we consider the EUR/USD growth a temporary correction. In the format of the forex strategy of the day we do not refuse to buy the pair above 0.9850, but are ready to return to the medium-term sales at the rebound from 0.9885; 0.9950 and 1.0000.
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USD/CAD analysis on April 18, 2025In a shortened trading session due to the Good Friday celebrations in North America, the USD/CAD pair is showing a moderate recovery, testing the 1.3865 level after a recent pullback to November lows. The absence of new macroeconomic releases shifts the attention of market participants to technical factors and prospects for the settlement of trade disputes.The White House administration continues to signal the possibility of early agreements with the EU and China, although current conditions remain extremely stringent. Chinese exporters still face 145% duties, while European goods face a base rate of 10% with an additional 25% levies on automotive products.The American statistics, published the day before, presented a mixed picture.Improved data on initial applications for unemployment benefits (215 thousand against the expected 225 thousand)Deterioration in the rate of repeat referrals (1.885 million versus the forecast of 1.87 million)Unexpected increase in building permits to 1.482 millionSharp drop in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Business activity Index to -26.4 pointsAt the last meeting, the Bank of Canada confirmed market expectations, leaving the rate at 2.75%. In an accompanying statement, the regulator highlighted the risks to economic growth associated with the escalation of the trade conflict with the United States, which justifies maintaining the current monetary policy.USD/CAD technical analysis for todayThe technical picture shows signs of a possible reversal:The narrowing Bollinger band retains the potential for movementMACD shows the first signals of a possible bullish crossingStochastic oscillator in the oversold zone indicates correction risksTrading recommendationsFor traders considering a buy scenario, the key entry level will be the breakdown of 1.3908 with the prospect of moving to the psychologically important 1.4000 mark. In this case, it is recommended to place a protective stop loss at 1.3850.An alternative bearish scenario suggests a breakdown of the 1.3839 support, which will pave the way for testing the 1.3730 level. It is advisable to set the stop loss for short positions at 1.3890. 
The GBP/USD pair continues to strengthen, demonstrating an upward trend and approaching the level of 1.3270, which the market is testing for an upward breakdown. Trading is taking place near the highs recorded in October last year, updated last week. Against the background of the approaching Easter weekend, the activity of market participants is decreasing, which makes the current movement more inertial.Investors are focused on the macro data that has already been published, as well as statements by politicians, including former US President Donald Trump, who in his Truth Social account again called on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, criticizing the regulator's actions as overdue. Nevertheless, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed the central bank's commitment to follow exclusively economic logic, ignoring political pressure.The data released on Wednesday from the UK confirmed the downward trend in inflationary pressures. The core consumer price index slowed from 3.5% to 3.4%, while the overall index decreased from 2.8% to 2.6% in annual terms, with a forecast of 2.7%. On a month-on-month basis, inflation was 0.3%, with an expectation of 0.4%. The main impact on the data was a decrease in clothing prices, while the cost of services remains high at 4.7%, albeit with some weakening compared to February 5.0%. Financial market participants are already pricing in the likelihood of a 25 basis point reduction in the key rate by the Bank of England, from 4.50% to 4.25% at the May meeting. At the same time, a further reduction in inflation to the target level of 2.0% can be supported by global economic processes, in particular, US measures to adjust import duties. Analytical forecasts allow for three rate cuts in 2025, by 25 basis points each, reaching 3.75% by the end of the year.The US dollar, in turn, came under pressure amid the publication of mixed data on the US economy. Industrial production in March decreased by 0.3% against an increase of 0.8% a month earlier, which turned out to be worse than analysts' forecast (-0.2%). At the same time, retail sales pleased investors: the indicator jumped by 1.4% month—on-month (against +0.2% in February) and accelerated year-on-year from 3.5% to 4.5%, which slightly smoothed out the negative from production statistics.Technical analysis of GBP/USD for todayFrom a technical point of view, the indicators on the daily chart signal the continuation of the upward momentum. The Bollinger bands show expansion, supporting movement to new local peaks. The MACD indicator continues to form a steady buy signal: the histogram is above the signal line and shows an upward trend. Stochastic, having reached the maximum value zone (level 100), stabilized in the horizontal zone, which may indicate the risks of short-term overbought of the asset.Trading recommendationsIn the case of a confident breakout of the 1.3300 level, we form purchases with the expectation of moving towards 1.3400. It is reasonable to set a protective order at the level of 1.3250.If buyers fail to break through the 1.3300 level and the pair begins to decline with a breakdown down to 1.3250, then we will receive a sales signal with a target at 1.3150. In this case, we will set the stop loss at 1.3300. 
FOREX fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on April 18, 2025The US administration's trade policy continues to wreak havoc on financial markets. Despite temporary concessions and periodic easing of tariff measures, the fundamental problem remains - the growing distrust of American assets. The US dollar, which has traditionally been viewed as a safe haven, is gradually losing its position, as clearly demonstrated by the EUR/USD pair's reaction to recent political statements.The situation is complicated by the growing confrontation between the US presidential administration and the Federal Reserve System. Donald Trump's criticism of Jerome Powell has reached such a level that the possibility of resigning the Fed chairman is being seriously discussed. Such a scenario, if implemented, could deal a serious blow to confidence in the American financial system.The difference in approaches between the Fed and the ECB is becoming more and more obvious. The European Central Bank has already implemented seven rate cuts in the current cycle, while the Federal Reserve is showing much more restraint. However, this caution is explained by fundamentally different economic conditions - while the ECB is struggling with a slowdown in growth, the Fed is forced to balance the risks of inflation and the consequences of trade wars.The US Treasury bond market is showing unprecedented volatility, which calls into question their traditional status as a defensive asset. Daily fluctuations in yields reach such magnitudes that many investors begin to consider treasuries rather as a high-risk instrument.EUR/USD prospectsThe current situation creates favorable conditions for the strengthening of the euro. Short-term corrections, such as a possible test of support around 1.1335, are likely to be temporary. Long positions on pullbacks with an eye on 1.1290 and 1.1170 look strategically justified.A successful test of the resistance in the area of 1.1440 may be a signal for increased purchases. However, it should be borne in mind that any unexpected easing of trade tensions can temporarily support the dollar. Nevertheless, given the complexity of the negotiation processes and the high demands of the American side, a quick resolution of the situation cannot be expected. 
USD/JPY analysis on April 8, 2025During Thursday's Asian session, the US dollar, after a recent pullback from September lows. It is recovering moderately against the Japanese yen, testing the level of 142.65. The movement takes place against the background of the release of contradictory data on Japanese foreign trade.March exports showed a noticeable slowdown to 3.9% after February's 11.4%, falling short of the 4.5% expected by the market. At the same time, imports showed an increase of 2.0% after the previous decline, and the trade surplus amounted to 544.1 billion yen, which was higher than consensus forecasts.The Bank of Japan's monetary policy outlook remains cautious. At the upcoming meeting on April 30 - May 1, the regulator is likely to keep the rate at the current level of 0.50% and may revise down economic growth forecasts. Central bank Governor Kazuo Ueda confirmed his intention to continue the gradual normalization of policy, although he acknowledged that trade tensions could delay the achievement of the 2% inflation target.According to preliminary data, the current US-Japanese trade negotiations are showing "good progress." After the temporary cancellation of duties for 90 days, Japan is faced with a base rate of 10%, while maintaining significant 25% car export fees - a key item of Japanese supplies.Today, the attention of market participants will be focused on American statistics on applications for unemployment benefits and building permits. A moderate increase in the number of applications for benefits and a slight decrease in building permits are expected.USD/JPY technical analysis for todayThe technical picture confirms the downtrend, despite the current recovery. The indicators show mixed signals: the MACD shows weak signs of a reversal while maintaining an overall bearish mood, and the stochastic oscillator, being in the oversold zone, has not yet given clear signals of a trend change.For traders considering further weakening of the pair, the key entry level remains a breakdown of 142.00 down with the prospect of moving to 140.00. In this case, it is recommended to place a protective stop loss at 143.00.An alternative scenario assumes the development of corrective growth with a breakout of the level of 143.35, which opens the way to testing 145.00. In this case, we move the stop loss to 142.50. 
The Australian dollar is showing a moderate decline against the US currency, correcting around 0.6341 after recently rising to its highest levels since the end of February. The pressure on the instrument is exerted by ambiguous macroeconomic data from Australia, where the labor market situation has shown contradictory signals. March statistics recorded an increase in the number of employed by 32.2 thousand after February's drop of 57.5 thousand, which was lower than the projected 40.0 thousand. At the same time, the unemployment rate increased slightly to 4.1%, which is still better than the expected 4.2%.The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained a cautious stance in the minutes of the last meeting, stressing the inability to determine the timing of rate changes due to the continuing uncertainty caused by US trade policy. The regulator has clearly outlined the need to continue fighting inflation, eliminating the possibility of premature monetary policy easing.The Australian dollar was positively influenced by encouraging data from China, where industrial production growth accelerated to 7.7% and retail sales increased to 5.9%. China's gross domestic product grew 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, exceeding analysts' expectations.There were mixed signals from the United States - a 1.4% increase in retail sales in March temporarily supported the dollar, but a 0.3% decline in industrial production indicated possible problems in the real sector of the economy.AUD/USD technical analysis for todayThe technical picture shows that the daily AUD/USD chart continues to expand the trading range while maintaining bullish signals. The MACD continues to generate buy signals, while the stochastic oscillator indicator turns down, indicating the likelihood of a short-term correction.For traders considering a bearish scenario, the signal for entry is a breakdown of the 0.6324 mark downwards with the prospect of a move to 0.6274. In this case, it is recommended to place a protective stop loss at the level of 0.6350.An alternative bullish scenario involves entering on a rebound from the 0.6324 support followed by consolidation above 0.6350, which opens the way to testing the 0.6408 level. It is advisable to set the stop loss for long positions at 0.6324. 
FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on April 17, 2025It's hard to imagine a more dramatic fall. The US dollar is off to its worst start to the year since 1995, losing 8% of its value against a basket of major currency indexes. The root of the problem lies in Washington's protectionist policy, which has forced investors to withdraw capital from American assets en masse. The consequences are felt not only by foreign exporters, but also by American companies themselves with a significant share of foreign income.The World Trade Organization has revised forecasts for the United States down significantly: instead of the expected 2.7% increase in international trade in 2025, a 0.2% decline is now forecast. With further escalation of trade conflicts, the decrease may reach 1.5%.Paradoxically, despite the obvious risks to the export-oriented EU economy, the euro continues to strengthen. This phenomenon is explained by the massive flow of capital into assets of the Old World, especially into German government bonds, which have become a new "safe haven" for frightened investors.The politics of uncertaintyThe situation continues to deteriorate: NVIDIA's announcement of new restrictions on chip exports to China (now requiring special licenses) provoked a new wave of sales on Wall Street and additional pressure on the dollar.The Fed found itself in a difficult position: on the one hand, tariffs stimulate inflation, on the other, they cool the labor market. As the chairman of the Federal Reserve noted, the central bank now resembles a goalkeeper who does not know which way to jump in a penalty shootout.Even positive data on retail sales in the United States (+1.4% in March) could not support the dollar - the market regarded this growth as a result of "panic purchases" before the introduction of new duties, which in the future could lead to a sharp slowdown in consumer activity.The prospects of the euroDespite its own problems (including the expected reduction in the ECB deposit rate on April 17 from 2.5% to 2.25%), the euro remains dominant. While the EUR/USD pair is trading above the key support level of 1.1290, buyers are dominating the market.Any short-term declines in the euro amid rumors of an easing in ECB policy should be seen as an opportunity to build up long positions. The current environment continues to favor the European currency, despite all the fundamental contradictions of this situation. 
USD/CHF analysis on April 15, 2025The US currency is attempting a moderate recovery against the franc, starting from local lows around 0.8168. The appreciation is largely due to technical aspects, while the macroeconomic background remains generally stable and does not show significant changes.However, the general direction of the dollar is still determined by global factors, in particular, increased trade tensions, which can put significant pressure on the pace of global economic recovery. Washington has previously stepped up its protectionist policy by imposing duties on imports from most countries, ranging from a base level of 10% to a critical 50%. Later, a 90-day delay was introduced, during which the same conditions apply, but for some countries the restrictions have already entered into force. The situation is particularly acute in relation to China, where a maximum rate of 145% has been introduced for goods from it. Beijing immediately responded with mirror measures. Despite the targeted exceptions for certain categories of technological products, including microchips and smartphones, the US president stressed that duties would remain at about 20%, refuting rumors about their cancellation.Fundamental signals and economic indicators of SwitzerlandThe latest statistics from Switzerland turned out to be weaker than expected. The producer and import price index slowed to 0.1% in March, with a forecast of 0.2%, and went into negative territory in annual terms — minus 0.1%. In the near future, markets will monitor the publication of data on foreign trade for March, as well as the decision of the European Central Bank, which is scheduled to meet on Thursday. Most investors are confident of reducing the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.40%.According to calculations by the KOF Institute for Economic Research, the Swiss economy may suffer significant losses due to the US tariffs at 31%. The rising cost of exports, especially in high–tech and pharmaceutical segments, threatens to reduce GDP by 0.2-0.6%, and with the expansion of sanctions on pharma, this range may be even higher. Analysts point out that the duration of the restrictions will be a key factor. The restructuring of production processes and logistics will require significant costs and is accompanied by increased uncertainty regarding the efficiency and reliability of new supply chains.Expectations for the US macroeconomicsInvestors are focusing on the March retail sales statistics, which will be published tomorrow. According to experts, the indicator may grow by 1.4% compared to the previous value of +0.2%. Also on the agenda is data on industrial production, which is expected to decline by 0.2% after an increase of 0.7% a month earlier. It is the readings of economic indicators that will become critically important for the further positioning of the dollar against the background of high uncertainty in global trade.USD/CHF technical analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands continue to expand in a downward direction, which indicates that there is potential for further decline. The MACD indicator retains a confident sales signal, as its histogram remains below the signal line. The stochastic oscillator is in the oversold zone and is showing an upward reversal, which may indicate a potential rebound in the short term.Trading IdeasSales will be justified in case of a confident breakdown of the 0.8098 support level downwards with the nearest target at 0.8000. A protective stop is placed at 0.8150.If there is a reversal and consolidation above the level of 0.8200, this may be a signal to open long positions with a target at 0.8315. In this case, a stop loss at 0.8150 is also recommended. 
The pound is showing short-term strengthening against the dollar, testing the 1.3200 level amid mixed data on the UK labor market. Employment in February showed an increase from 144 thousand to 206 thousand, but wage growth (excluding bonuses) was below forecasts – 5.9% against the expected 6.0%. The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.4%, while the number of applications for unemployment benefits increased to 18.7 thousand in March (forecast – 30.3 thousand).Tomorrow, the market expects the publication of inflation data: analysts predict that the core consumer price index will remain at 3.5%, while the overall indicator may slow down from 2.8% to 2.7%.Additional support for the pound is provided by data on the housing market from Rightmove Group Ltd.: in April, asking prices for real estate increased by 1.4% month-on-month, reaching a record high of 377,182 thousand pounds. However, experts note that the current growth may slow down due to the end of tax incentives for low-cost real estate transactions. The impact of US trade policy on the British market remains uncertain, but a potential easing of the Bank of England's monetary policy may have a stimulating effect.Pressure factors on the dollarToday, investors' attention will be focused on data on business activity in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (forecast: -12.4 points versus -20.0 points earlier), as well as on the Redbook retail sales index. March data on retail sales (forecast: +1.4% after +0.2%) and industrial production (forecast: -0.2% after +0.7%) are expected to be published tomorrow.Technical analysis of GBP/USD for todayThe daily chart of GBP/USD shows moderate growth with the expansion of the price range. The MACD indicator retains a bullish signal, while the stochastic oscillator is approaching the overbought zone, which indicates the risks of a short-term correction.Trading recommendations- Long positions: Breaking the 1.3250 level up opens the way to the 1.3340 target. The stop loss is 1.3200.- Short positions: A breakout of the 1.3150 support creates the prerequisites for a decline to 1.3050. The stop loss is 1.3200.