Fundamental analysis of FOREX on April 28, 2022.
The camp of euro buyers is rapidly emptying. The war in Ukraine, the Eurozone energy crisis, the recession of the European and world economy leaves no chance for the bulls. EUR/USD is testing support at 1.05, the breakthrough of which opens the way for the asset to parity, if, of course, the bears can break through 1.034 and 1.02.
The refusal of Poland and Bulgaria to pay for Russian gas in rubles led to the shutdown of the supply of "blue" fuel to these countries. Someone considers this step another Kremlin adventure, someone - the beginning of the "gas" war. Anyway, the h6o fuel price has risen by 11%. For European consumers, this news is also unpleasant because the cost of energy is calculated in USD, which is rapidly becoming more expensive relative to the European currency.
It should be noted that the United States is also experiencing an economic downturn. In the first quarter, US GDP slowed from 6.9% to 1.1%. But these are the traditional difficulties of the first quarter, compounded by the accumulation of stocks, not comparable to the prospects of a recession of the Eurozone economy. Of course, the American economy may also face a recession with a superaggressive increase in Fed rates, but this is a matter of the future, and the regulator is unlikely to let monetary restriction take its course.
High inflation is a consequence of supply disruption due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Fed will certainly not be able to influence this factor, so it will raise the rate carefully, preventing the economy from "overheating".
At the same time, the tightening of the monetary policy of the world Central banks is the main risk of a slowdown in the global economy, which will again emphasize the exclusivity of the US economy and support the dollar in forex currency trading.
EUR/USD fulfills the designated reduction goals with enviable stability. But weak statistics from the United States and the Eurozone inflation report may provoke an upward pullback to 1.055 and 1.06, which can be used to generate new sales.