EUR/USD: the parity level can be tested already in the first quarter

USA: pay attention to the ISM index and the labor marketThe ISM Services Business Activity Index for March will be published in the United States this afternoon.A similar PMI indicator released earlier indicated an improvement in the outlook, despite continued uncertainty about tariff policy.The March Challenger report on job cuts is also expected to be published. Although this indicator rarely has a significant impact on the market, it can provide additional information about the extent of federal layoffs.Eurozone: final PMI data and ECB meeting minutesInvestors will also focus on the final data on business activity indices (PMI) for March in the eurozone. In recent months, the revised figures have significantly differed from the preliminary ones, which makes them particularly important. In addition, the minutes of the March meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) will be published, which may provide insight into possible decisions of the regulator at the April meeting.Sweden: statistics and speech by the head of the RiksbankThe indices of business activity in the service sector and the composite PMI will be released in Sweden today. The consensus forecast assumes that they will remain at the level of the previous month, similar to the manufacturing PMI index published on Monday. The head of the Riksbank, Eric Tedeen, will participate in a panel discussion on the European capital market. Although Sweden's monetary policy is unlikely to be the main topic, there may be individual statements that could attract investors' attention.Main events and market newsIn the US, President Donald Trump announced the introduction of new tariffs on the Day of the Exemption, which caused uncertainty in the markets. Tariff rates range from 10% to 60% depending on the country, while a single base tariff of 10% has been introduced. These measures turned out to be tougher than expected, leading to a sharp decline in sentiment in global markets due to fears of a slowdown in economic growth, falling corporate profits and increased inflationary pressures.In China, the Caixin services PMI unexpectedly rose to 51.9 in March from 51.4 in February. This was the result of increased domestic demand, which contributed to an increase in business activity and the number of new orders, the best result for the services sector since December last year.In Denmark, the Central Bank (Nationalbanken) has published data on currency interventions for March. As expected, the bank did not take any action in the foreign exchange market, which continues a 26-month streak of non-intervention.In Poland, the Central Bank (NBP) left its key interest rate at 5.75%, which was in line with analysts' forecasts. Additional details regarding the prospects for monetary policy will be announced after the press conference of NBP head Adam Glapinsky, scheduled for 15:00 CET.Stock marketsAsian stock indexes are trading in the red zone, with the largest losses recorded in Japan amid the strengthening of the yen, as well as after the announcement of a 24% tariff against the country.Futures on European indices are also showing a decline, while American markets have suffered the most significant losses due to a sharp increase in tariff pressure, which is actually a hidden tax for consumers.The overall market dynamics are consistent with observations of the escalation of trade wars in the last month and a half.Currency and debt marketThe markets expected milder tariff conditions, but their calculations did not materialize. The final decisions turned out to be tougher, which increased the risk of a recession in the United States. Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped sharply, while Japan's Nikkei dropped 3.5%.In the bond market, US Treasury yields declined along the entire curve, while the spread between two-year and ten-year securities decreased by 15 bps compared to yesterday's highs.Amid growing uncertainty, the US dollar weakened relative to other forex currency indices. USD/JPY lost 2% overnight and is trading near 147. EUR/USD strengthened above 1.09. Scandinavian currencies were influenced by multidirectional factors: on the one hand, the increased likelihood of a recession in the United States exerts pressure, on the other hand, the attractiveness of assets increases beyond the dollar. EUR/SEK is trading at 11.75, while EUR/NOK is trading near 11.33.

FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on April 3, 2025The Trump administration's introduction of so-called "discount reciprocal" tariffs has sent shockwaves through global markets. The differentiated duties - 10% on total imports, 20% for the EU, 24% for Japan and 34% for China - exceeded the most pessimistic expectations. Finance Minister Bessent aggravated the situation by hinting at the possibility of further tightening measures in the event of retaliatory actions by trading partners.The official goal of the new policy is the redistribution of economic benefits in favor of the United States. However, experts doubt the realism of the administration's plans to raise 2.5 trillion dollars. According to Capital Economics estimates, the actual revenue will not exceed 700 billion due to the inevitable reduction in import flows. At the same time, the economic consequences can be extremely negative.:- Acceleration of inflation to 4% (an increase of 2.5 percentage points)- Increased likelihood of recession- GDP decline by 1% in the next quarter (forecast by Piper Sandler)Different countries have shown mixed reactions to the new measures. China is preparing for a mirror response, while the EU is taking a wait-and-see attitude. Japan demands the abolition of duties.Financial markets have already begun to adapt to the new reality. Expected:- Pressure on American stock indexes- The flow of capital from the United States to other regions- The weakening of the dollar against the background of lower yields of treasuriesFrom the point of view of John Murphy's technical analysis, a favorable background remains for EUR/USD. Long positions formed in the 1.0735-1.0755 zone and supplemented at levels above 1.0845 look promising. The marks of 1.1050 and 1.1170 can be considered as the nearest targets.

FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on April 1, 2025The prolonged uncertainty surrounding US trade policy continues to put pressure on global markets. According to the IMF, the longer there is uncertainty about future tariff barriers, the more negative this could have for economic growth. The expected introduction of reciprocal import duties on the "Day of America's Liberation" casts doubt on the prospects for sustainable GDP expansion in the United States. Against this background, recession risks continue to increase, which creates additional pressure on the US dollar and supports the recovery movements of the EUR/USD pair.Leading financial institutions are consistently revising forecasts for the likelihood of an economic downturn in the United States. Goldman Sachs raised its forecast from 20% to 35%, while JP Morgan and Moody's Analytics analysts estimate the risks at 40%. Such adjustments are associated with increasing uncertainty ahead of the launch of new trade restrictions, which may significantly increase the average level of customs duties from the current 2.2% to historical highs. This situation seriously complicates long-term planning for both businesses and consumers, undermining confidence in the economic outlook.The Trump administration sets two difficult-to-reconcile goals through the introduction of additional duties. On the one hand, the government expects to increase budget revenues to compensate for the extension of tax benefits. On the other hand, it seeks to put pressure on trading partners, forcing them to lower their own tariff barriers. However, the temporary nature of the planned measures, which are due to take effect on April 2, raises questions about their effectiveness as a tool for sustainable replenishment of the state treasury.Analysts are particularly concerned about the possible reaction of the main US trading partners to the new restrictions. Traditionally, countries with significant trade surpluses with America have used these excess funds to purchase Treasury bonds. Over the past decade, the volume of foreign investment in treasuries has grown from 6.1 trillion to 8.5 trillion dollars, with Japan remaining the largest holders with 1.06 trillion, China with 759 billion, Luxembourg, representing European investment funds, with 424 billion, and Canada with 379 billion dollars. In the event of a reduction in these investments, the market may face an increase in government bond yields, which will create additional difficulties for the American economy and may force the Fed to accelerate the pace of monetary policy easing.There is no consensus among analysts about the prospects for the US currency. Goldman Sachs expects the dollar to weaken against the background of a more active reduction in Fed rates, while Wells Fargo experts, on the contrary, predict a strengthening of USD by 1.5-11%, depending on the reaction of international partners to the new trade restrictions.For the EUR/USD pair, the expected volatility creates potential trading opportunities. A breakout of resistance in the area of 1.0845 may open the way for building up long positions, while consolidation below 1.0780 will create the prerequisites for short trades. The current situation requires special attention to the development of events after April 2 and the reaction of key participants in international trade, which can significantly change existing market trends.

USA: inflation and labor market expectationsToday, traders who prefer forex trading based on the news are focused on two news items from the United States – the ISM industrial business activity index for March and the JOLTs report on the number of vacancies for February. According to forecasts, the ISM index will remain at the level of the previous month, but regional data indicate a possible decline amid trade uncertainty. The Federal Reserve pays special attention to JOLTs data as an indicator of labor demand, which may influence future monetary policy decisions.The Eurozone: inflation and the labor marketPublished inflation data in the leading economies of the eurozone turned out to be mixed: France, Spain and Germany recorded a slowdown, while in Italy inflation turned out to be higher than expected. Overall, the HICP index for the eurozone is likely to decline from 2.3% to 2.1% in annual terms, driven by lower prices for energy and services. Despite this, the ECB remains inclined to lower rates in April. Unemployment data is also expected to be published today, which is projected to remain at 6.2%, indicating the stability of the labor market.Denmark and Sweden: Wages and PMIIn Denmark, data on wage growth in the private sector for the first quarter will be published. In the fourth quarter of 2024, nominal salaries increased by 4.6% year-on-year, providing a 2.9% increase in real incomes. Wage growth is expected to continue in the first quarter of 2025, but will be lower than in the previous year.In Sweden, the PMI index for the manufacturing sector for March is expected to be around 53 points, which corresponds to the level of the last five months. In February, the figure was 53.5, with all components except inventories showing growth, including new orders, production, and employment.Overview of global marketsAsian markets: Central Bank policy and business activityThe Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the key rate at 4.10%, which was in line with expectations. The regulator expressed confidence in a gradual decrease in inflation, but noted the risks of a slowdown in domestic demand. Financial markets have already priced in two or three rate cuts before the end of 2025.In Japan, a quarterly Tankan survey was published, the results of which were mixed. The index of business sentiment of large industrial companies decreased from 14 to 12, which was the lowest value for the year. At the same time, the service sector showed improvement, with the indicator rising from 33 to 35, reaching its highest level since 1991, boosted by increased consumer spending and a record influx of foreign tourists. Inflation expectations in Japan continue to rise, which supports the Bank of Japan's plans to further tighten policy.In China, the Caixin private business activity Index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector rose to 51.2 points (against the forecast of 51.1), which was the highest value since November. The growth was driven by improved demand conditions and an increase in foreign orders to a maximum in 11 months.European markets: inflation and GDPIn Germany, the HICP index dropped to 2.3% year-on-year (versus the forecast of 2.4%), mainly due to falling energy prices (-2.8% versus -1.6% in February). A slowdown in service sector inflation (to 3.4% from 3.8%) may be a key factor for the ECB when deciding on a rate cut.Danish GDP for the fourth quarter of 2024 was revised up to 1.8% QoQ (from 1.6% QoQ in the preliminary estimate), and annual economic growth was 3.7% (+0.1 percentage points to the previous forecast). The pharmaceutical sector continues to make the main contribution to growth, but other industries are expected to become more active in 2025.In Norway, organizations representing the interests of workers in industry have agreed on a 4.4% wage increase in 2025, which is slightly lower than Norges Bank's forecast (4.5%). This confirms the trend towards a slowdown in wage growth, despite a stable labor market, which opens up opportunities for a gradual easing of monetary policy.Stock markets: dynamics and expectationsGlobal stock markets came under pressure again yesterday, but the dynamics differed from previous sessions due to trade wars. In the US, major indexes closed in positive territory: The Dow Jones is up 1.0%, the S&P 500 is up 0.6%, while the Nasdaq is down 0.1% and the Russell 2000 index of small companies is down 0.6%.The growth of the American market was quite broad: 21 out of 25 industry indexes ended the day in positive territory. However, the predominance of defensive sectors indicates that investors prefer safer assets, despite the improvement in sentiment. Volatility (VIX) has increased, even despite the rise of the S&P 500, which signals continued caution.Asian markets are mostly growing today, especially in export-oriented South Korea and Taiwan. European futures are also trading higher, while American futures are showing a decline.Currency and debt marketsThe US bond market ended the day with an increase in yields on the short section of the curve: 2-year US Treasury bonds rose by 5 bps, and the yield on 10-year UST was 4.21%. The rumors about the ECB's tougher stance supported the yield on 2-year German bonds, but did not have a significant impact on the euro exchange rate. The EUR/USD pair gradually declined to 1.08.USD/JPY continues to consolidate near 150.00. The EUR/SEK pair rose to 11.86, partly due to factors related to the end of the month. The Norwegian krone (NOK) initially weakened, but ended the day unchanged against the euro at 11.36. In the future, Scandinavian currencies will react to trade tariff decisions, while the Swedish krona (SEK) may be vulnerable to dividend flows.

AUD/USD analysis on March 31, 2025The Australian dollar continues to adjust within the downward trend, falling to the level of 0.6278. The main factor putting pressure on quotes was weak economic data for Australia, reflecting continued uncertainty about inflation and credit activity.The report published by the Melbourne Institute for March indicated an increase in expected inflation of 0.7% against the previous decrease of 0.2%. This indicator often correlates with the official consumer price index, which increases market participants' concerns about inflationary pressures. Additional support for this scenario is provided by the report of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), according to which mortgage lending remained at 0.4% in February, while the total volume of loans to the private sector increased by 0.5%.The RBA is expected to meet tomorrow at 05:30 (GMT+2), at which the regulator is likely to leave the interest rate unchanged at 4.10%. However, the rhetoric of the Central Bank's representatives will be crucial: if the statement contains cautious assessments of the prospects for monetary policy, the AUD rate may continue to decline. At the same time, some analysts do not rule out the possibility of a rate cut in June or July, given the stabilization of economic activity and the gradual weakening of inflation.The US dollar index remains under pressure and is currently consolidating around 103.50. The greenback ended last week in the negative zone, developing a downward trend that has been observed since the beginning of the year.The current weakening of the dollar is largely due to disappointing data from the University of Michigan. The consumer expectations index in March decreased from 64.0 to 52.6 points, which is the lowest value since July 2022. The consumer sentiment index also fell from 64.7 to 57.0 points and reached a 29-month low.AUD/USD technical analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the AUD/USD pair is approaching the lower boundary of the ascending channel with a range of 0.6480–0.6250.Technical indicators confirm the strengthening of the downward momentum:– The moving averages on the Alligator indicator are directed downwards, increasing the discrepancy with the signal line.– The Awesome Oscillator (AO) histogram shows descending bars in the negative zone, reinforcing the sell signal.Trading recommendations– Selling: It is possible to open short positions after breaking through the 0.6250 level and consolidating below it, with a target at 0.6140. It is recommended to set the stop loss at 0.6320.– Purchases: they will be relevant in case of growth and consolidation of the price above 0.6310, with a target of 0.6410. The protective stop is 0.6250.Thus, the short-term outlook for AUD/USD remains bearish, and further developments will depend on the outcome of the RBA meeting and the general sentiment towards the US dollar.

The USD/CHF pair is showing a steady downward trend, and after another interest rate cut by the Swiss National Bank, it reached the level of 0.8791. The regulator eased monetary policy for the fifth time in a row, setting the key rate at 0.25%, which corresponds to the interim target. This move forced analysts at Citigroup Inc. to revise forecasts, narrowing the expected trading range to 0.8500-0.9000 against previous expectations of the upper limit at 0.9300.The head of the NBS Martin Schlegel pointed to the continuing uncertainty in the global economy caused by trade restrictions from the United States. These measures create difficulties for long-term forecasting of economic development dynamics. At the same time, the regulator expects a possible acceleration of inflationary processes, which may lead to a pause in the cycle of monetary expansion. NBS continues to monitor the situation, ready to make additional adjustments if necessary to maintain price stability.The US dollar index continues to weaken for the third consecutive session. The USDX index sank to 103.50. Pressure on the US currency increased after the publication of data from the University of Michigan: the consumer expectations index fell to 52.6 points (the lowest since July 2022), and the overall consumer sentiment index fell to 57.0 points (the lowest level since November 2022).USD/CHF technical analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the pair is correcting within the descending channel with the boundaries of 0.8850-0.8650. Technical indicators confirm the bearish signal:- The fast moving averages on the Alligator indicator are located below the signal line- The Awesome Oscillator indicator forms ascending bars in the negative zoneTrading recommendationsFor sales- Entry when anchored below 0.8760- Target level: 0.8630- Protective order: 0.8820For purchases- Entry at an upward breakout of 0.8850- Target level: 0.8990- Protective order: 0.8800

Eurozone: Focus on inflation in GermanyToday, the main focus of investors and analysts is on German inflation data for March, which anticipates the overall figures for the eurozone expected tomorrow.Earlier, inflation in France and Spain was below forecasts, which is a positive signal for the European Central Bank (ECB). It will be important to see if the same trend is reflected in Germany.According to forecasts, the eurozone HICP index will decrease from 2.3% YoY to 2.1% YoY, mainly due to lower inflation in the energy and services sectors.China: Caixin Manufacturing PMI – is growth possible?In China, the Industrial Business Activity Index (Caixin PMI) is expected to be published today. The consensus forecast assumes a slight decrease from 50.8 to 50.6, but there is a possibility of strengthening the result. This is due to improved data on other indicators, such as the Yicai index and rising metal prices in March.Denmark: Correction of GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024Revised Danish GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024 will be published today. The preliminary report showed solid economic growth of 1.6% QoQ. However, quick estimates are always accompanied by a high degree of uncertainty, so it is important to understand how significant the possible adjustments will be.Sweden: Completion of wage negotiationsMajor industry salary negotiations are due to expire in Sweden today, which creates additional pressure on the negotiating parties. Initially, it was proposed to conclude a three-year agreement at the level of 7.7%, which is lower than expected and may indicate the risks of a downward revision of wage forecasts.Australia: Reserve Bank to keep interest rate at 4.10%The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to leave its key interest rate at 4.10% tomorrow morning, in line with market consensus. At the last meeting, the RBA began a cycle of rate cuts, but did not give clear signals of further easing. Currently, the markets forecast 2-3 rate cuts in 2025, but the probability of maintaining the current level tomorrow is estimated at 90%.Japan: Expectations for the Tankan report and the policy of the Bank of JapanTonight, the Bank of Japan will publish the quarterly Tankan business survey. The PMI indexes indicate steady growth in the first quarter, but the significant decline in March raises questions. The Tankan data is particularly important in the context of the Bank of Japan's future policy: positive results may strengthen expectations for further rate hikes. The spring wage negotiations also confirm the trend towards tightening monetary policy.Main focus of the week: trade duties and their impactThis week, the markets are monitoring the development of the situation around tariffs, especially from the United States. New widespread tariffs are expected to be announced on Wednesday, as well as possible retaliatory measures from other countries. At night, information was received that the United States could impose restrictions against "all countries," which contradicts earlier statements. In addition, the possibility of new sanctions against Russian oil buyers is being discussed.The final event of the week will be the US employment report for March, which is scheduled to be published on Friday.Macroeconomic events and market newsUSA: The core PCE index for February rose by 0.4% mom (consensus: 0.3% mom), which is higher than expected. At the same time, the overall PCE index showed an increase of 0.3% mom, in line with forecasts. The real volume of consumer spending increased by only 0.1% mom, which indicates a restrained mood among consumers.China: The official composite PMI rose to 51.4 in March from 51.1 in February. The index in the non–manufacturing sector rose to 50.8 (from 50.4), reflecting a recovery in the services sector, while the manufacturing PMI reached an annual maximum of 50.5.Norway: The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 2.0% in March, as predicted. The number of new vacancies decreased slightly, which may indicate a moderate weakening in demand for labor. At the same time, the growth of retail sales in the last three months (by 1.3%) confirms the positive trends in consumption.Japan: The minutes of the Bank of Japan's March meeting showed that participants recognize the importance of recent wage increases as a factor for further rate increases. However, concern was expressed about the weakness of investment among small and medium-sized enterprises, which casts doubt on the sustainability of current wage growth.Geopolitical factors: trade conflicts and sanctionsUS President Donald Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the position of Russian President Vladimir Putin and threatened to impose tariffs from 25% to 50% on imports from countries that buy Russian oil if Moscow does not take steps to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. This statement followed Putin's words about the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky. In the coming days, Trump is expected to have a telephone conversation with Putin, which may determine the further vector of the situation.Stock markets: going into defensive assetsGlobal stock indexes closed in the "red zone" on Friday as investors reduced their risk appetite ahead of the weekend.US index results on Friday:• Dow Jones: -1,7%• S&P 500: -2,0%• Nasdaq: -2,7%• Russell 2000: -2,1%The negative sentiment continues in Asia, where the Japanese yen acts as a defensive asset. The Japanese Nikkei index has declined by more than 4% at the time of writing, and the exchanges of exporting countries are also showing a significant drop.Stock index futures in Europe and the United States point to continued declines, along with falling yields at the long end of the U.S. Treasury bond curve.Dynamics of the currency and debt marketsU.S. government bonds ended last week higher as PCE data, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index and threats of new tariffs from Trump sparked caution in the markets. Stocks in the United States have fallen sharply, especially in the technology sector.Currency movements• The JPY strengthened against the major G10 currencies• EUR/USD rose above 1.1080• EUR/NOK rose to 11.35• EUR/SEK ended the week at 11.84This week, the key factor remains the issue of new tariffs, which will determine the dynamics of global markets.

FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on March 31, 2025The rapid growth of gold and the simultaneous weakening of the US dollar have a common root — the growing wave of anti-globalization. The decision of Western countries to freeze Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves in 2022 was a turning point that forced central banks around the world to reconsider their strategy and pay more attention to the gold reserves, especially for countries outside the Western camp. The growing demand for gold reduces interest in the greenback and helps strengthen EUR/USD.Donald Trump's policy of "restoring America's greatness" is unexpectedly undermining confidence in the dollar. The more actively Washington uses sanctions and protectionist measures, the stronger the euro grows. In 2025, the US dollar is no longer perceived as a safe haven asset. Investors are looking for alternatives — the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc and, of course, gold.The aggressive US trade policy is alienating even traditional allies. The question is whether the largest holders of US government debt, such as Japan and China, will want to start diversifying reserves in retaliation for tariffs. If this happens, the pressure on the dollar will increase.Previously, in times of crisis, the dollar was strengthening and the stock market was falling. Now, the S&P 500 and USD are showing synchronous movement. Such a correlation of the US currency and the stock index looks, at least, illogical. The explanation is simple: the dollar is losing its "safe haven" status, and foreign investors are reducing investments in American assets. For example, Europeans have lost about 13% since the beginning of the year due to the fall in both US stocks and the dollar exchange rate.Trump's actions are pushing the US economy towards a dangerous scenario — a combination of stagnation and inflation. Consumer confidence is falling, and employment forecasts are deteriorating. Goldman Sachs expects that the Fed will have to ease policy more actively in 2025 — not two, but three times.The last straw may be the introduction of universal tariffs, which have been discussed again in the White House. If earlier Trump calmed the markets by talking about "soft" measures, now investors are nervous again, getting rid of both the dollar and stocks.Long positions on EUR/USD formed in the 1.0735-1.0755 zone look promising. Even though inflation is slowing in Europe, capital flight from the dollar is supporting the euro. In the event of a breakdown of the 1.0845 resistance, the uptrend may accelerate, paving the way for more significant growth.