USA: new tariffs, market reaction and the Fed's position
The Trump administration's mirror tariffs have been in effect in the United States since this morning. The main focus is on the countries with the largest trade deficit with the United States. China has been hit with an unprecedented 104% tariff, the culmination of an escalated trade war between the two powers. The media is actively discussing potential retaliatory measures from China, including a weakening of the yuan and a possible sale of American assets.
President Trump announced the readiness of many countries for trade agreements last night and expressed confidence in reaching a deal with China. However, he also made it clear that the tariff measures may not end there — duties on pharmaceutical imports are expected.
Today, special attention will be focused on the speech of Fed Member Barkin and the publication of the minutes of the last FOMC meeting. The document may shed light on discussions about the Fed's reaction function and the state of dollar liquidity. Against the background of tightening financial conditions, the regulator is likely to take a wait-and-see attitude, preferring verbal interventions to lower the rate. Nevertheless, market expectations signal almost five rate cuts of 25 basis points over the course of the year, with the probability of the first cut in May estimated at 50%.
The US debt market has seen a significant increase in yields on long—term bonds - plus 20 basis points per day. This happens despite a decrease in the quotations of risky assets and indicates a likely revaluation of the premium over the term. Among the possible reasons are rumors about the sale of Treasuries from China, the reduction of hedge fund positions and weak demand at the auction of 3-year bonds. Today, the placement of 10-year securities will take place, and its results will give an idea of the real demand for long-term obligations in the new conditions.
Europe: tariff confrontation with the United States and the ECB's position
A vote is expected in the eurozone today on the initiative of the European Commission to impose retaliatory tariffs of up to 21 billion euros on American imports. This could provoke an even more aggressive reaction from Washington and increase tensions in global trade.
Representatives of the ECB are also speaking on the current agenda. Judging by the rhetoric, the governing council agrees that a tightening of U.S. trade policy could seriously undermine global demand. The question remains to what extent the "hawkish" part of the ECB still sees the inflation risks associated with tariffs.
Yesterday, the representative of the ECB from Germany, Nagel, said that Washington's change of course "significantly worsens global prospects." At the same time, Simkus, who takes a more moderate position, noted the need to reduce the rate by 25 bps next week, but abandoned the forecast for June.
China and inflation data
China is preparing to publish data on the consumer price index. These data will be important both for assessing domestic demand and for understanding the extent to which the current trade confrontation with the United States is affecting the economy.
Oceania and the commodity market: falling rates and oil
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has lowered its key interest rate to 3.50% from 3.75%, confirming a soft monetary policy course amid global uncertainty.
Oil prices have plummeted — Brent is trading in the range of 60-61 dollars per barrel, which is the lowest in the last four years. This is due to concerns about a slowdown in the Chinese economy and a general decrease in risk appetite.
Sweden, Denmark and the real estate market
In Sweden, house prices remained unchanged in March after two months of decline. This reflects household pessimism, which has begun to show up in the evidence. The decline in activity in the real estate market may intensify in the coming months, but expectations of lower rates may partially offset the negative sentiment.
In Denmark, industrial production increased by 5.1% in February, reversing the decline in January. However, volumes are still lower on a three-month basis, partly due to instability in the pharmaceutical sector.
Geopolitics: China, Ukraine and the USA
The head of the US Treasury Department, Vincent, sharply criticized China's retaliatory measures in the trade conflict, calling them a "serious mistake." At the Senate hearing, USTR representative Greer confirmed that there would be no exceptions to the new global tariffs, but stressed that tariffs on Chinese vessels in U.S. ports would not necessarily be cumulative.
In Ukraine, President Zelensky announced the detention of two Chinese citizens who fought on the side of Russia. This has caused concern in Washington, and Kiev is demanding explanations from Beijing and the United States.
Financial markets: high volatility and reduced risk appetite
Stock markets continued to decline: the S&P 500 index lost 1.6%, having already fallen by 19% from its February highs. Despite attempts at a rebound, Trump's rhetoric and uncertainty about China are weighing on investor sentiment. The rise in bond yields came as a surprise, causing declines in the real estate and consumer goods sectors. At the same time, banks, industry and the utilities sector were among the rare winners, which indicates the unwillingness of investors to take on additional risks.
Futures on the Asian and European markets opened lower today. The Nikkei 225 lost up to 4% after yesterday's rally, while the mood in China is more subdued — Hang Seng is down 1.6%, and Shenzhen is even up 0.6%.
Currencies and yields: pressure remains
The dollar index DXY decreased by 1% per day, EUR/USD broke through the 1.10 level again, and EUR/CHF fell below 0.93 amid deteriorating sentiment. The EUR/NOK pair reached above 12 due to the fall in oil prices. Yields on long-term U.S. Treasuries rose amid the risk-off, despite the weakness of the stock market.
USD/CHF analysis on April 15, 2025The US currency is attempting a moderate recovery against the franc, starting from local lows around 0.8168. The appreciation is largely due to technical aspects, while the macroeconomic background remains generally stable and does not show significant changes.However, the general direction of the dollar is still determined by global factors, in particular, increased trade tensions, which can put significant pressure on the pace of global economic recovery. Washington has previously stepped up its protectionist policy by imposing duties on imports from most countries, ranging from a base level of 10% to a critical 50%. Later, a 90-day delay was introduced, during which the same conditions apply, but for some countries the restrictions have already entered into force. The situation is particularly acute in relation to China, where a maximum rate of 145% has been introduced for goods from it. Beijing immediately responded with mirror measures. Despite the targeted exceptions for certain categories of technological products, including microchips and smartphones, the US president stressed that duties would remain at about 20%, refuting rumors about their cancellation.Fundamental signals and economic indicators of SwitzerlandThe latest statistics from Switzerland turned out to be weaker than expected. The producer and import price index slowed to 0.1% in March, with a forecast of 0.2%, and went into negative territory in annual terms — minus 0.1%. In the near future, markets will monitor the publication of data on foreign trade for March, as well as the decision of the European Central Bank, which is scheduled to meet on Thursday. Most investors are confident of reducing the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.40%.According to calculations by the KOF Institute for Economic Research, the Swiss economy may suffer significant losses due to the US tariffs at 31%. The rising cost of exports, especially in high–tech and pharmaceutical segments, threatens to reduce GDP by 0.2-0.6%, and with the expansion of sanctions on pharma, this range may be even higher. Analysts point out that the duration of the restrictions will be a key factor. The restructuring of production processes and logistics will require significant costs and is accompanied by increased uncertainty regarding the efficiency and reliability of new supply chains.Expectations for the US macroeconomicsInvestors are focusing on the March retail sales statistics, which will be published tomorrow. According to experts, the indicator may grow by 1.4% compared to the previous value of +0.2%. Also on the agenda is data on industrial production, which is expected to decline by 0.2% after an increase of 0.7% a month earlier. It is the readings of economic indicators that will become critically important for the further positioning of the dollar against the background of high uncertainty in global trade.USD/CHF technical analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands continue to expand in a downward direction, which indicates that there is potential for further decline. The MACD indicator retains a confident sales signal, as its histogram remains below the signal line. The stochastic oscillator is in the oversold zone and is showing an upward reversal, which may indicate a potential rebound in the short term.Trading IdeasSales will be justified in case of a confident breakdown of the 0.8098 support level downwards with the nearest target at 0.8000. A protective stop is placed at 0.8150.If there is a reversal and consolidation above the level of 0.8200, this may be a signal to open long positions with a target at 0.8315. In this case, a stop loss at 0.8150 is also recommended. 
The pound is showing short-term strengthening against the dollar, testing the 1.3200 level amid mixed data on the UK labor market. Employment in February showed an increase from 144 thousand to 206 thousand, but wage growth (excluding bonuses) was below forecasts – 5.9% against the expected 6.0%. The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.4%, while the number of applications for unemployment benefits increased to 18.7 thousand in March (forecast – 30.3 thousand).Tomorrow, the market expects the publication of inflation data: analysts predict that the core consumer price index will remain at 3.5%, while the overall indicator may slow down from 2.8% to 2.7%.Additional support for the pound is provided by data on the housing market from Rightmove Group Ltd.: in April, asking prices for real estate increased by 1.4% month-on-month, reaching a record high of 377,182 thousand pounds. However, experts note that the current growth may slow down due to the end of tax incentives for low-cost real estate transactions. The impact of US trade policy on the British market remains uncertain, but a potential easing of the Bank of England's monetary policy may have a stimulating effect.Pressure factors on the dollarToday, investors' attention will be focused on data on business activity in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (forecast: -12.4 points versus -20.0 points earlier), as well as on the Redbook retail sales index. March data on retail sales (forecast: +1.4% after +0.2%) and industrial production (forecast: -0.2% after +0.7%) are expected to be published tomorrow.Technical analysis of GBP/USD for todayThe daily chart of GBP/USD shows moderate growth with the expansion of the price range. The MACD indicator retains a bullish signal, while the stochastic oscillator is approaching the overbought zone, which indicates the risks of a short-term correction.Trading recommendations- Long positions: Breaking the 1.3250 level up opens the way to the 1.3340 target. The stop loss is 1.3200.- Short positions: A breakout of the 1.3150 support creates the prerequisites for a decline to 1.3050. The stop loss is 1.3200. 
Focus on Germany: ZEW Sentiment index and expectationsToday, the key event on the European macroeconomic agenda will be the publication of the ZEW index of economic sentiment for Germany for March. According to the consensus forecast, the index value may drop significantly to 9.5 points, which is likely due to the ongoing turbulence in global trade and weak readings of economic indicators in the region. Recall that in February, the indicator of current economic conditions unexpectedly rose to 51.6 after a January jump from 26.0, ending a six-month downward trend. This time, the market expects only a slight improvement in the current estimate, to -86.8 from -87.6 last month.Sweden's spring budget: no market effectIn Sweden, the spring revision of the state budget will be presented at 8:00 Central European time. The main parameters of the project are already known: the volume of reforms is 11.5 billion crowns, while the central initiative will be the extension of tax benefits for housing repairs. Earlier in March, the government announced plans for a long-term increase in defense spending, but the final targets for them will be formed only in June, after the NATO summit, and they will not be included in the current budget version. For this reason, the impact of the document on financial markets will be minimal.United Kingdom: labor market dataAt 8:00 a.m., the UK will publish the employment report for February-March. Although this event traditionally has an impact on the pound, the current market agenda is focused on trade conflicts and interest rate policy, so the reaction to the publication may be limited.Overall market picture: cautious optimism amid tariff uncertaintyThe main attention of market participants remains focused on the escalation of tariff disputes. In the United States, Fed member Christopher Waller made a mild comment, noting that in the face of a significant slowdown in the economy due to high tariffs, he would support an earlier and large-scale rate cut. His words are especially important, given that Waller often reflects a consensus opinion within the FOMC.In China, exports increased by 12.4% YoY in March, significantly exceeding expectations (4.4%). However, given the upcoming tariff policy changes, these data are temporary. In April, we can expect a sharp decline in shipments, especially towards the United States. Against this background, the global trade picture remains uncertain.Financial markets: cautious recovery in risk appetiteStocks on global markets showed growth on Monday amid hopes that the peak of the tariff war may have already passed. European securities outperformed American ones, and defensive sectors outperformed cyclical ones in terms of profitability for the third day in a row – a clear signal that investors are becoming more selective and are beginning to take into account structural risks.On Wall Street, all key indexes closed in positive territory: The Dow Jones and S&P 500 gained 0.8% each, the Nasdaq 0.6%, and the Russell 2000 1.1%. Positive sentiment prevailed in Asia on Tuesday, with European futures also showing growth.Dollar, Euro and yields: EUR/USD recoveryAfter falling to the level of 1.1300, the EUR/USD currency pair regained momentum amid easing concerns about the recession in the United States and signs of flexibility in the tariff policy of the White House. The Norwegian krone and the British pound also showed growth following the stock indexes. In Europe, yields on two-year swaps dropped below 2%, reflecting a general shift towards a soft policy. US government bond yields also declined, partly due to Waller's comments, which focused on the possible reaction of the Fed in the event of a slowdown in the labor market.Today, special attention will be paid to the "tax day" in the United States – the date when the maximum inflow of funds to the budget traditionally occurs, which can affect the short-term liquidity and dynamics of treasury securities. 
FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on April 15, 2025The transformation of the international trading system initiated by the Trump administration has led to unexpected consequences that go beyond the initial forecasts.The US dollar, traditionally considered a safe haven for investors, has suddenly turned into an asset with increased volatility. Its dynamics now show a paradoxical correlation with the stock market, strengthening against the backdrop of the growth of the S&P 500 and the decline in Treasury yields.Paradigm shift: the search for alternativesPolitical instability and the inconsistency of US trade policy have forced investors to look for a replacement for the dollar. Along with the classic defensive assets - the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc and gold - the euro has gained unexpected popularity. The situation on the government debt market has become particularly significant: massive sales of treasuries have given rise to speculation about a possible reduction in Chinese reserves (amounting to $760 billion), which has led to a flow of capital into German bunds. This process has become a catalyst for the strengthening of the euro to the highs of three years ago.Paradoxical relationshipsThe most surprising phenomenon was the direct relationship between the dynamics of the S&P 500 and the dollar exchange rate, which indicates a fundamental change in the perception of the US currency - it turned from an "asset of pessimists" into an "instrument of optimists."Narrative controlThe US administration demonstrates a clear understanding of market fears and is actively trying to neutralize them:- Denial of recession risks (Kevin Hassett)- Highlighting the strength of the labor market- Refutation of information about large-scale sales of treasuries by non-residents (Scott Bessent)- Announcements of upcoming trade agreements with a number of countriesThe partial abolition of duties on high-tech products and the discussion of possible eases for the automotive industry have become factors supporting the stock market and the temporary weakening of the euro.Trade prospectsThe market faced a binary choice1. Mitigation scenario (cancellation of duties → growth of stocks → decrease in treasury yields → strengthening of the dollar)2. Escalation scenario (continued restrictions → continued EUR/USD rally)In the current conditions, it looks strategically justified- Building up long positions on EUR/USD with a confident breakout of the 1.1430 resistance- Short-term sales at the breakdown of 1.1290 support, but this tactic has a countertrend character and can result in losses even for experienced tradersThe situation requires increased flexibility in approaches, as the dynamics continue to be determined by political factors rather than fundamental economic indicators. 
Dollar Index trading idea (DXY) on April 14, 2025ARTEM_DEEV During Monday's Asian session, the dollar index (DXY) continues to decline, and has already sunk to 99.50, the lowest value since April 2022. The third consecutive session of sales of the US currency reflects the growing distrust of investors, fueled by weak macroeconomic data from the United States and increased expectations of easing the Fed's monetary policy.The aggravation of the trade conflict between the United States and China is putting significant pressure on the dollar. Beijing's retaliatory measures, which increased duties on American goods from 84% to 125% in response to similar actions by Washington, have increased concerns about the global economic downturn. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has warned that such protectionist policies could accelerate the onset of the next financial crisis.US economic indicators continue to show alarming signals:The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 50.8 points in April, while inflation expectations rose to 6.7%;Annual growth in the producer price index (PPI) slowed to 2.7% in March from 3.2% in February;The consumer price index (CPI) decreased to 2.4% in annual terms.This dynamic, indicating a weakening of inflationary pressure while simultaneously worsening consumer sentiment, has revived market discussions about a possible early easing of the Fed's policy. At the same time, representatives of the regulator note that the trade war significantly complicates the decision-making process on interest rates.The market is currently estimating the probability of a 90 basis point Fed rate cut by the end of 2025. In the coming days, special attention will be focused on the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell – his comments may become a catalyst for further weakening of the dollar if the soft rhetoric persists.Trading recommendationWe are considering an exclusively "bearish" scenario and include a pending DXY sell order in the trading plan.Sell Stop 99.20 with a target (TP) of 96.00 and a protective order (S-L) at 100.50. 
AUD/USD is showing a moderate correction around 0.6293, while maintaining an overall uptrend. The move comes amid a partial softening of the US administration's rhetoric on trade duties, although the base rate of 10% remains in effect for most US trading partners, with the exception of China, for which tariffs have been sharply increased to 145%. Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao criticized this policy, noting its destabilizing effect on the global economy and calling for resistance to "unilateral protectionist measures."The Australian currency was supported by positive business activity data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. In February, total turnover increased to 0.7% from the previous 0.6%, although growth was observed in only six of the thirteen industries. The largest growth was demonstrated by the manufacturing industry (+4.6%), the transport sector (+2.4%) and media communications (+2.2%). At the same time, the extractive industry decreased by 2.5%, and the segment of art and recreation - by 2.7%. In annual terms, the manufacturing industry shows impressive growth of 14.2%, while the extractive sector lost 6.3%.The US dollar index sank to 99.40. Last week, the currency came under pressure due to the escalation of trade conflicts, despite the temporary lifting of duties for most countries. New restrictions on semiconductor exports announced by the Trump administration have added to the uncertainty, although promises of exemptions for individual companies have somewhat mitigated the negative effect.AUD/USD technical analysis for todayFrom a technical point of view, AUD/USD continues to move in the ascending channel of 0.6250-0.6490. The indicators show a weakening of bearish signals: the fast moving averages on the Alligator are turning up, and the AO oscillator on the chart is forming several ascending bars in the negative zone.Trading recommendations- For buyers: we should wait for the pair to consolidate above 0.6340. The nearest target will be 0.6530. We put the stop loss at 0.6300- For sellers: entry is advisable when breaking down 0.6260 with a target of 0.6035 and a stop loss at 0.6310 
Escalation of the tariff war: the US and China continue their confrontationFinancial markets are in a state of heightened anxiety as investors closely monitor further actions by US President Donald Trump as part of the ongoing tariff confrontation. At the moment, most countries face a 10% duty on a wide range of exported goods, as well as a 25% tariff on automobiles, steel, aluminum, and products from Canada and Mexico. China, by contrast, is in the worst position, facing a record 145% interest rate.The markets have already partially priced in further escalation, but the current measures from the United States represent an actual tightening of fiscal policy, which increases the likelihood of a recession. On the other hand, China is expected to take stimulating steps, possibly lowering the benchmark interest rate after Easter. At the same time, a devaluation of the yuan is unlikely, since Beijing prefers to maintain the stability of the exchange rate.Eurozone: inflation is losing priority, the focus is on slowing growthOn Wednesday, the publication of the final data on inflation in the eurozone for March is expected. The consensus forecast assumes confirmation of the preliminary values, and the market is likely not to react to the release. Investors' attention has already shifted from the inflationary agenda to economic growth prospects and trade risks.On Thursday, the ECB is expected to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%. The accompanying statement is likely to repeat the phrase that monetary policy is becoming "less restrictive." The head of the regulator, Christine Lagarde, is likely to focus on the deterioration of the macroeconomic outlook, but there will be no direct hints on the next steps on rates.Current events: signals from the USA and AsiaThe US president has announced new tariffs on semiconductors in the coming week. In parallel, an investigation has been launched into national security issues in the semiconductor sector. At the same time, Trump stated the need for "flexibility" in trade issues. On the other hand, Chinese Leader Xi Jinping began his first foreign trip this year, visiting Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia. The visit underscores Beijing's desire to strengthen regional ties and forge a multipolar order.Over the weekend, the United States excluded a number of high—tech goods from retaliatory tariffs - smartphones, chip manufacturing equipment and some computers. This provided short-term relief for the American IT sector. However, as noted by Commerce Secretary Howard Latnick, these goods may still be subject to future tariffs on semiconductors expected before May.Macroeconomic data: alarming signals from the United StatesA preliminary survey of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan for April revealed a sharp deterioration in indicators. The index fell to 50.8 from 57.0 in March, while expectations and current estimates also declined more than expected. At the same time, inflation expectations for the year ahead rose to 6.7%, which increases concerns about lost price control.Producer prices in March, on the contrary, showed a decrease — the PPI index dropped to 2.7% in annual terms, which turned out to be lower than expected. This indicates that manufacturers did not have time to shift potential tariff costs to the final price in anticipation of new duties.Regional inflation: Swedish stabilityIn Sweden, the final March inflation data coincided with estimates: CPI at 0.5% YoY, CPIF at 2.3% YoY. Food inflation accelerated, while other components, including clothing, transportation, and housing, showed declines. Thus, inflation remains below the Riksbank's target level for the eighth month in a row, which supports the regulator's cautious position.Stock markets: optimism with caveatsUS stock markets ended Friday on a positive note — the S&P 500 index gained 1.8%, playing off the news about the exclusion of IT products from tariffs. Apple shares have become the engine of growth. European markets lagged behind in dynamics, but futures indicate a possible increase at the opening. It is worth noting that since the beginning of the year, European stocks have been outperforming American stocks in terms of profitability.Bond and currency markets: dollar under pressure, U.S. yields risingThe EUR/USD pair briefly dropped below 1.13 on Friday, as the weakening of tariff threats supported the dollar. However, overall confidence in American assets remains in question. The yield gap between the US and Europe has become noticeably wider: the yield on 10-year US bonds rose by 50 bps to 4.5%, while German securities remained virtually unchanged (2.55%). Scandinavian currencies remain vulnerable amid global capital flows and high uncertainty.ResultsMarkets continue to balance between the hope of stabilizing trade relations and the reality of increased global risks. Further steps by the United States on tariffs, China's reaction, and central bank policies will determine market movements in the coming weeks. 
FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on April 14, 2025The US dollar may get a chance to recover only if the White House abandons the policy of trade wars and protectionism, which continues to put pressure on the US economy. However, current trends indicate the opposite – the cooling of economic activity and the growing distrust of American assets form a stable negative background for the USD. This is not a short-term correction, but a deep structural adjustment that could lead EUR/USD to the 1.30 level by 2026.Given the tough stance of Donald Trump, who continues to pursue a review of global trade rules, the dollar remains in a vulnerable position. Consensus forecasts for US GDP growth for 2025 have already been revised downwards: while in January, Wall Street Journal analysts expected an increase of 2%, by April the estimate had fallen to 0.9%. At the same time, the probability of a recession in the next 12 months has increased from 22% to 45%, which increases investors' pessimism.Range of opinions: from recession to moderate growthForecasts of economic indicators range from a 2% reduction in GDP to a 3.1% increase. Pessimists point to a deterioration in consumer sentiment and the already tangible effects of tariffs on supply chains. Optimists, on the contrary, believe that the US administration's trade policy is tactical in nature and may soon be softened.However, such expectations look naive against the background of constant changes in the rhetoric of the White House. Trump alternately declares the tariffs unchanged, then temporarily suspends them, and then threatens new duties if there is no progress in negotiations. A striking example is the recent exemption from tariffs on electronics for $390 billion (including $100 billion of Chinese imports), which was soon called into question due to plans to introduce "special fees."Investors are losing confidenceThis inconsistency undermines confidence in American assets. For the first time in five years, demand for hedging dollar purchases has exceeded interest in insuring its sales, reaching highs since the pandemic period.The situation is aggravated by inflationary risks: According to estimates by the Wall Street Journal, price growth in 2025 may accelerate to 3.6% (versus 2.7% in January), which will limit the Fed's ability to ease policy. Although inflation is likely to slow to 2.6% by 2026, the short-term effects on the economy will be negative.Trading recommendationsIn the current conditions, the upward trend in EUR/USD looks stable. Corrections against the background of temporary positive news (for example, rumors about tariff easing or ECB rate cuts) should be considered as an opportunity to form and increase long positions with targets at the levels of 1.16 and 1.195.