AUD/USD has noticeably sagged, rolling back from local highs on June 26 and at the beginning of the week it is testing the support of 0.6665 for a breakdown downwards. Traders analyze macroeconomic data from Australia and China. In Australia, the manufacturing PMI for June fell from 47.5 to 47.2 points, and the ANZ jobs index fell 2.2% after a 1.9% decline in the previous month. In addition, in May, the weighted average consumer price index rose from 3.6% to 4.0%, which raised concerns about a possible interest rate hike in August. Although these data supported the Australian dollar, the comments of the deputy head of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Andrew Hauser, who said that it was impossible to make decisions based on a single inflation report, restrained further growth of the pair.
The data from China was mixed: the Caixin business activity index in manufacturing rose from 51.7 to 51.8 points in June, exceeding analysts' expectations, but the index in the services sector fell from 51.1 to 50.5 points. The index in the manufacturing sector from the National Bureau of Statistics remained at 49.5 points.
Expectations of further actions by the RBA provide some support to the Australian dollar. Unexpectedly strong inflation growth in Australia may lead to new interest rate hikes. In May, the consumer price index accelerated from 3.6% to 4.0%. Business activity data from the Australian Industry Group (AiG) and the Commonwealth Bank, inflation statistics from TD Securities, as well as retail sales data for May are expected to be published on Wednesday. On Friday, the US is expected to release June labor market data, where the number of new jobs is projected to decrease from 272 thousand to 180 thousand.
The main forex indicators on the daily chart give mixed signals: the Bollinger bands move to a horizontal position, the MACD is growing, maintaining a weak buy signal, and the Stochastic Oscillator is approaching maximum levels.
It is recommended to open short positions with a confident breakdown down to the level of 0.6667. The target is 0.6622. We will set the stop loss at 0.6690.
For purchases, we are waiting for a rebound from 0.6667 and an upward breakdown of the resistance of 0.6679. The target mark is 0.6725. We place the stop loss at 0.6655.