Forex analysis and forecast for AUD/USD for today, October 14, 2022

AUD/USD, currency, Forex analysis and forecast for AUD/USD for today, October 14, 2022

AUD/USD is recovering on Friday, retreating farther from the historic lows of April 2020. After Thursday's release of the US inflation report, the pair first collapsed to 0.6170 and then quickly began to recover.

For September, core U.S. inflation rose to 6.6% from 6.3%, with a forecast of 6.5%. Australia's inflation figure was unchanged at 5.4%.

China's inflation report came out today. Over the month the consumer price index rose 2.8% (y/y) or 0.3% (m/m). The producer price index slowed from 2.3% to 0.9%. Although the People's Bank of China is in no hurry to raise rates, its policy is producing the desired results.

The head of the World Bank predicts a global recession as early as 2023. Moreover, David Malpass believes that 7% of the world's population, approximately 570 million people, will fall into extreme poverty.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

After multidirectional momentum moves, the major forex indicators for the Daily are giving out conflicting signals. The Bollinger Bands are still pointing down while the MACD has turned upward, though it remains in a negative range. Stochastic Oscillator is rising.

After a break above 0.6362, we open long positions with Take Profit at 0.6522. We will set a protective stop at 0.6280.

If the pair fixes below support at 0.6250, we will get a signal to start selling towards 0.6140. Stop-loss is set at 0.6310.

AUD/USD Daily Chart Forex

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Forex EURUSD: U.S. macroeconomic statistics return faith in the dollar
EUR/USD, currency, Forex EURUSD: U.S. macroeconomic statistics return faith in the dollar Forex Fundamental Analysis for EURUSD on December 6, 2022The Fed can meet the inflation target in two ways. The first is to quickly drive the interest rate above 5% and then begin easing financial conditions just as quickly, or the second is to conduct unhurried acts of monetary restriction, carefully analyzing the effect of the measures taken.Jerome Powell and his colleagues have chosen the second path, but the strong macroeconomic statistics of recent days may change their decision.Financial markets assess the Fed's work according to their market criteria and it is often investors' expectations that change the dynamics of assets, break trading strategies and cause losses for traders, who believed in the exclusivity of fundamental analysis. Currently, traders and investors believe that the US regulator will bring the rate to 5%, and only in a few months will start to reduce it. Perhaps, investors' opinion is influenced by recession risks, as the yield curve has been signaling an economic downturn for a long time.At the same time, US economic indicators cast doubt on the likelihood of a recession, which means the Fed has no reason to cut rates. The central bank would benefit from keeping them at high levels longer in order to finally beat inflationary pressures.Yesterday's services purchasing managers' index, which strengthened in November from 54.4 points to 56.5 points, sent stock indices back down and Treasury yields and the dollar back up.Of course, the EURUSD trend change was also affected by long positions being closed by buyers around 1.06. Most likely, on the eve of the US inflation report and FOMC meeting few people wanted to open new positions. Forex trading is very volatile, so it is often better to wait away from the market than risk your deposit during unpredictable market movements.I think that we are expecting a long consolidation in the EUR/USD pair, the boundaries of which the pair will determine soon. For now we will use a breakthrough of support at 1.0475 for short-term sales.
Dec 06, 2022 Read
Forex analysis and forecast for USDCHF for today, December 5, 2022
USD/CHF, currency, Forex analysis and forecast for USDCHF for  today, December 5, 2022 At the Asian session of the first trading day of the first trading day of December the pair USD/CHF fell slightly and is trading near the important level of 0.9350.The buyers tried to seize the initiative at the US labor market report on Friday, playing with the good statistics, but failed to develop offensive. The U.S. economy created 263 thousand jobs in November against a forecast of 200 thousand. Unemployment remained at 3.7%. Average wage growth accelerated from 4.9% to 5.1% (y/y).The ISM Service Business Activity Index for November will be released today. Analysts forecast an increase of 54.4 to 55.6 points.USD/CHF Technical AnalysisOn the daily chart, the Bollinger Band indicator is rearranging into a horizontal direction.MACD indicator has resumed its decline in the negative area and holds a sell signal.Stochastic Oscillator in decline broke through the 20% boundary and entered the oversold area.On a break below 0.9350, we open short positions with take profit at 0.9200. Stop loss is set at 0.9420.The signal to buy will be fixation of the price above resistance at 0.9400. The nearest target is 0.9550. Stop-loss is placed at 0.9330
Dec 05, 2022 Read
Forex. EURUSD: US labor market statistics supported stock indices
EUR/USD, currency, Forex. EURUSD: US labor market statistics supported stock indices Forex Fundamental Analysis for EURUSD on December 5, 2022Forex market trading based on the news once again had a surprise. Not quite a bad report on the US labor market supported not the US dollar, as most traders expected, but the US stock indices, though traders' initial reaction was in favor of the dollar.According to NFP, 263,000 jobs were created for the month, better than expected. Unemployment remained at 3.7% and average wage growth accelerated to 5.1%. This is the highest growth rate in a year.The EURUSD fell to 1.043 after the news, but then investors remembered that the Fed was going to slow the pace of monetary tightening anyway, which led to a recovery in the price. The pair's dynamics was also affected by the closing of positions before the weekend.Investors believe that the maximum rate of the Fed will not exceed 4.9% and even the strong employment report could not break this belief.We should note that December is a favorable month for EUR/USD. Statistically, in December the pair rose 15 times out of 22.I believe that the pair is heading towards the target at 1.061. This is where we will take profits.
Dec 05, 2022 Read
Forex. EURUSD: the era of the strong dollar is ending
EUR/USD, currency, Forex. EURUSD: the era of the strong dollar is ending FOREX Fundamental analysis for EURUSD on December 2, 2022Throughout the years 2021-2022 the US dollar has been strengthening, but as we know, nothing lasts forever, including in forex currency trading. Even the strongest trends come to an end at some point, only to reverse later.The dollar hit its highest level in 20 years in September, but then the Fed changed its strategy out of fear of the negative effects of a tight exchange rate on the US economy, which eventually led to a trend reversal in the EUR/USD pair.The dollar strengthened against the backdrop of the Fed's fight against high inflation. Growth in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index slowed from 6.3% to 6.0% in October. We see that inflation is not only down in the United States. According to Bloomberg, global CPI growth slowed from 9.8% to 9.5% with a forecast of 5.3% by the end of 2023.We can assume that if global inflation weakens, then global central banks will move to a softer monetary policy stance. Obviously, the first to realize this were hedge fund managers, actively increasing sales of the U.S. dollar. A little later they were joined by big asset owners. When two such powerful groups of speculators rock the market, the dollar index tends to react. Suffice it to recall the dollar sell-offs in 2017 and 2020.The U.S. labor market report will be released today, which will allow the Fed to decide the outlook for monetary policy. If the statistics are worse than expected, the possibility of the Fed slowing down its monetary tightening will rise considerably.At the same time EUR/USD has been strengthening for quite a long time and speculators might start taking buy positions before the news. For sure, the big players will take advantage of this circumstance by opening sales against the crowd. We will partially cover the previously formed purchases.
Dec 02, 2022 Read
GBP/USD: US jobs report disappoints investors. GBPUSD analysis for December 1, 2022
GBP/USD, currency, GBP/USD: US jobs report disappoints investors. GBPUSD analysis for December 1, 2022 On Thursday the pair GBP/USD keeps the uptrend and tries to hold above the broken resistance level of 1.2100.The day before the rise was caused by the speech of Jerome Powell in which the head of FRS confirmed the regulator's intention to reduce the monetary restriction rate but keep the course for the further toughening of the monetary policy. Jerome Powell believes that the fight against inflation requires caution as it can provoke unwanted consequences, so the rates should be raised without too much haste, analyzing the effectiveness of the measures taken.The dollar was also pressured by the U.S. labor market report from ADP. The US economy created only 127 thousand jobs in October against the forecast of 200 thousand and the previous indicator 239 thousand.In the UK, Rishi Sunyak's government has come up with a new tax in the form of a duty, which can essentially wipe out all the small oil production companies.On the daily chart, the pound-dollar pair remains within the boundaries of the ascending channel and is approaching its upper boundary. The Alligator indicator is correctly open to the upside, and the awesome oscillator is in the positive area.If the price fixes above the level of 1.2180, I recommend to keep buying the pair with the next target of 1.2650. Stop-loss is set at 1.2000.At decrease below support level of 1.1940 we will switch to short positions with the final target at 1.1490. Stop-loss is set at the price of 1.2020.
Dec 01, 2022 Read
Forex analysis and forecast for AUDUSD for today, December 1, 2022
AUD/USD, currency, Forex analysis and forecast for AUDUSD for today, December 1, 2022 AUDUSD maintains its uptrend. The Asian session on Thursday is trying to break the resistance at 0.6800.The pair stepped up the bullish trend after yesterday's speech by Jerome Powell, who said the need to slow the pace of monetary restriction, without abandoning the further tightening of the monetary policy in the U.S. Investors were also worried by the weak report on the US labor market from ADP, which registered 127 thousand new jobs against the forecast of 200 thousand.Economic statistics from Australia on Wednesday did not have a noticeable impact on AUD trading dynamics. However traders paid serious attention to inflation rate decrease from 7.3% to 6.9% in October against expectations of 7.4% growth. Also the real estate market in Australia showed good performance. At the same time the manufacturing activity index released today decreased from 51.5 to 51.3 points.AUDUSD Technical analysisOn the daily chart the Bollinger Band indicator remains in the moderate growth phase.MACD indicator is strengthening, preserving a strong buy signal.Stochastic Oscillator is growing and has already approached the border of the 80% overbought area.With a firm price consolidation above the level of 0.6800, we continue to open long positions with Take Profit at 0.6900. Stop-loss is set at 0.6750.Upon breakdown of the support level at 0.6750 downwards, we will open a sell position with the nearest target at 0.6650. I recommend to place a stop-loss in this case at the level of 0.6800.
Dec 01, 2022 Read
Forex. EURUSD: the peak of the dollar is behind us
EUR/USD, currency, Forex. EURUSD: the peak of the dollar is behind us FOREX Fundamental analysis for EURUSD on December 1, 2022The end of autumn was marked by active trading. The volatility of currency pairs on Forex exceeded historical levels. As a matter of fact, the whole year of 2022 was the same. A series of turmoil that hit the markets changed the currency trading on Forex. It was possible to become rich within a day or lose your entire trading account, as it happened on November 30, when EUR/USD was fluctuating between 1.0325 and 1.0395.At the news release traders felt hot and cold. And it is not surprising. On Tuesday the report on the US labor market (ADP), US GDP dynamics and inflation data of the Eurozone were published. The U.S. economy created only 127,000 jobs for the month, against a forecast of 200,000. The third quarter U.S. GDP data showed a growth of 2.9% with a forecast of 2.6%.The "cherry on the cake" of the day yesterday was the speech of Jerome Powell, who didn't throw a lifeline to the dollar, as a result of which the stock indices went up, pulling EUR/USD above 1.04.Nevertheless, the head of the Fed did not say anything out of the ordinary. Jerome Powell expressed the need for further rate hikes, but the FOMC members decided to slow down the pace of monetary restriction in order not to overdo it. Many financial market experts believe that the sell-off of the dollar, which began in early November, has dragged on. The Fed intends to determine the appropriate level of the rate, and in such conditions a hurry is not necessary.At the same time, the head of the Fed reminded that the regulator's goal is to bring inflation down to the target level of 2%. But markets, as usual, heard only what they wanted to hear.Of course the Fed's desire to take into account bilateral risks, i.e. risks of inflation and risks of the economy is a good signal for the stock indices and therefore for EUR/USD. We can assume that the dollar has passed the highs and will weaken from here on out. However, being focused on the prospects of the dollar, traders somehow underestimated the European inflation data, where the rate declined from 10.6% to 10.0%. And that means there's no point in the European Central Bank raising rates sharply. It is not by chance that Christine Lagarde talked about possible restriction of 50 or even 30 basis points.For now the situation in the market is in favor of EUR/USD bulls. Moreover, the weak report from ADP sets up a similar Non-farm Payrolls. However for the dollar to come back to strengthening it needs a strong driver, which might be tomorrow's Non-farm Payrolls report. Moreover, the Euro should also be under pressure with the CPI falling from 10.6% to 10.0% which might allow the ECB to slow down its monetary tightening.EUR/USD: how long will the growth of the pair last?On Thursday EUR/USD keeps the bullish trend and is trying to hold above the resistance at 1.04. Since the trading started the pair has gained 0.2%.Although major forex indicators are showing an uptrend, there is a strong resistance at 1.05, which buyers are unlikely to overcome on the way up. Yesterday on the rebound from 1.039 long positions were opened, which we keep for the targets 1.05 and 1.061.Considering the technical aspects and the fundamental background, we offer a sell order for the EUR/USD.Sell-stop 1.0390 take-profit 1.0200 stop-loss 1.0450
Dec 01, 2022 Read
Forex analysis and forecast for USD/CHF for today, November 30, 2022
USD/CHF, currency, Forex analysis and forecast for USD/CHF for today, November 30, 2022 In trading in Asia on Wednesday, the USDCHF is trading in a narrow channel, slightly retreating from the local highs of November 22.The pair is testing support at 0.9520, but traders are unlikely to show any activity without a new strong push to trade the currency on forex. Today we are expecting a big set of statistics from the USA, such as ADP labor market report, GDP data, followed by Jerome Powell's speech and publication of the Fed's Beige Book economic survey.Switzerland will publish the KOF leading indicators index. It is expected to rise from 90.9 to 91.3 points. Here also it is expected the index strengthening from (-52.1) to (-41.9) p. p.At the same time the Swiss authorities are worried about energy shortages and appeal to the population to save energy.USD/CHF Technical analysisBollinger Bands on the daily chart has shifted into the neutral state.The MACD indicator is in the negative area, but it is rising towards the zero line and generating a buy signal.The stochastic oscillator is rising and approaching the border of the overbought area of 80%.The signal to buy will be a price retention above the resistance level of 0.9550. The nearest target for transaction closing is 0.9650. Stop loss is set at the level of 0.9478.On a rebound from 0.9550 downwards, wait for a breakout of support at 0.9478, and then enter short positions with a target at 0.9350. I recommend setting a stop-loss at 0.9550.
Nov 30, 2022 Read
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