During Thursday's Asian session, the AUD/USD pair shows an unstable movement near the 0.6570 mark. Pressure on the asset is exerted by data on the Australian economy.
September retail sales showed a slowdown to 0.1% instead of the expected 0.3%. In the third quarter, sales increased by 0.5% after a decrease of 0.3%. The number of construction permits issued increased by 4.4% in September, offsetting a 3.9% drop a month earlier. In annual terms, the indicator accelerated to 6.8%. Investors also drew attention to statistics from China, where business activity in the service sector rose to 50.2 points against expectations of 50.4, and the manufacturing sector slightly exceeded forecasts, strengthening from 49.8 to 50.1 points.
Earlier, AUD/USD was under pressure from Australian inflation data, which increased expectations of monetary policy easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Consumer prices in September slowed from 2.7% to 2.1% (against the forecast of 2.3%), and the quarterly increase was only 0.2%. Lower prices for electricity and fuel have allowed to reach a three-year low, but the high cost of services remains, preventing the Central Bank from relaxing its hawkish policy.
The US dollar, despite the decline in US GDP from 3.0% to 2.8%, strengthened its position thanks to the ADP report on private sector employment. In October, this figure rose to 233.0 thousand jobs, although a decrease to 115.0 thousand was expected. A strong labor market and stable GDP do not contribute to monetary policy easing by the Fed, which supports the dollar.
On the daily AUD/USD chart, the Bollinger bands indicator narrows, showing a decrease, but remains wide enough for current market activity. The MACD indicator turns up, but retains a sell signal. Stochastic, having retreated from the minimum values, indicates a possible corrective growth.
Short positions can be opened after a confident breakdown down to the level of 0.6536 with a target mark of 0.6456. We will place the stop loss at 0.6590.
If the AUD/USD pair bounces off the 0.6536 support and breaks through the 0.6600 resistance, we will get a buy signal with a target at 0.6700. We will place the stop loss at 0.6536.