Forex analysis and forecast for GBP/USD for today, October 21, 2022

AUD/USD analysis on January 23, 2025AUD/USD is showing moderate growth and remains in the area of local highs on January 6 near the 0.6300 mark. The main impulse of the upward movement occurred on January 20, when the inauguration of Donald Trump provoked a surge in currency pair volatility in the market.Investors are closely monitoring the possible implementation of the US president's trade promises, including the imposition of import duties. Although Trump did not disclose details of changes to trade agreements in his speech, information later emerged about possible tariffs of 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico starting February 1, as well as 10% duties on Chinese imports. Experts suggest that the announced measures may put significant pressure on the economies of these countries. According to calculations, China's GDP could shrink by $128 billion, and the U.S. economy will lose about $55 billion over four years.Today, the focus of American traders will be on data on applications for unemployment benefits, which will be published at 15:30 (GMT+2). A slight increase in initial applications is projected for the week from 217 thousand to 220 thousand, and repeat applications from 1,859 million to 1,860 million.Tomorrow, the market is waiting for the publication of business activity indices from S&P Global for January:Manufacturing sector: expected to grow from 49.4 to 49.6 points.The service sector: a decline from 56.8 to 56.5 points is forecast.Similar indexes in Australia will be released on Friday. According to preliminary data:Manufacturing industry: 47.8 points (unchanged).Service sector: 50.8 points (stable).Last week, data on the Australian labor market showed that:The unemployment rate decreased by 4 thousand to 604.9 thousand people.The number of employees increased by 31 thousand to 14.573 million, which is 2.8% more than a year ago.The employment rate remained at 64.4%, despite a decrease in full-time employment by 23.7 thousand to 10.037 million, and partial employment by 80 thousand to 4.546 million.The labor market is showing resilience even against the backdrop of high interest rates, which may support the prospects for the Australian dollar.AUD/USD Technical Analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the Bollinger Band Indicator is trying to stabilize in the horizontal plane, which indicates a possible slowdown in the current uptrend. The MACD histogram is growing, forming a buy signal, which confirms the upward momentum. Stochastic is above the "80" mark and signals that the pair is overbought, which creates correction risks in the short term.Trading Recommendations1. SaleCondition: A confident breakdown of the 0.6250 level down.Target: 0.6200.Stop loss: 0.6274.2. BuyCondition: Breakout of the 0.6300 mark up.Target: 0.6372.Stop loss: 0.6274.The attention of market participants in the coming days is focused on the economic data from the United States and Australia, which may set a new impetus for the AUD/USD pair.

The EUR/GBP exchange rate showed stability against the background of the publication of data on the UK labor market.Although wage growth (excluding bonuses) exceeded expectations, a more important indicator is the monthly wage dynamics in the private sector, which is closely monitored by the Bank of England (BoE), showed less pronounced growth.This indicates a gradual cooling of the labor market, which is consistent with the latest BoE survey, according to which wage growth expectations have dropped below 4%.These data did not significantly change the outlook for the Bank of England's monetary policy. The probability of an interest rate cut in February remains high. In the short term, the EUR/GBP pair may continue to grow, given the risks associated with high borrowing rates in the UK, as well as expectations of further easing of BoE policy. At the same time, the euro may receive support by reducing fears of the introduction of US customs tariffs against the EU.EUR/GBP technical analysis for todayDaily timeframe (D1)On the daily chart, the EUR/GBP pair rebounded from the key resistance zone after collecting liquidity above previous highs. However, the current situation is not clear enough to form a clear market trend. For confirmation, it is necessary to switch to the lower timeframe in order to analyze the price behavior.Timeframe 3 hours (H3)The 3-hour chart shows the formation of an important trend change pattern - the breakdown of the trend line and the subsequent retest. The price reaction from the resistance zone of the daily chart led to a breakdown of the trend line, which previously supported the upward movement. Repeated testing of a broken trendline usually indicates the beginning of a reversal, which confirms the predominance of bearish sentiment in the market.Conclusions• Direction: Downward• Target level: 0.84983• Scenario cancellation rate: 0.83065RecommendationThe current market structure and signs of a slowdown in the UK economy, coupled with the main forex indicators, indicate the potential for further depreciation of the EUR/GBP exchange rate. Opening short positions with a target at 0.84983 may be justified if the bearish trend is confirmed.

FOREX fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on January 23, 2025In the historical context, the success of the US economy has often had a positive impact on the global market. However, 2025 shows a completely different picture. The strong American economy, which previously pushed the development of exporters from other countries, is facing the intention of Donald Trump to redraw the global trade map. The US president is threatening to impose 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico, 10% tariffs against China and publicly criticizes the European Union, accusing it of a trade surplus with the United States worth $350 billion, which, according to the White House, implies an adjustment of the trade agreement between the partners, the threat of tariff revision has become one. one of the reasons holding back the EUR/USD recovery, despite attempts to develop an upward movement.The state of the Eurozone economyThe head of the Bank of the Netherlands, Claes Knoth, noted that the problem is not only the negative impact of tariffs on the Eurozone's GDP, but also the general weakness of the region's economy. Against the background of these factors, the European Central Bank (ECB) is set to continue the cycle of monetary policy easing. According to market expectations, in January and March, the ECB may reduce the deposit rate from 3% to 2.5%, and by 2025 it may drop to 2%. ECB representatives from France and Greece agree with this forecast, pointing to a steady slowdown in inflation towards the 2% target.Donald Trump's policy and its impact on the foreign exchange marketPresident Trump is pursuing an economic policy that, according to analysts, is inflationary in nature. Tariff increases, deregulation, and increased fiscal stimulus could put pressure on the Fed and force it to tighten monetary policy. Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that the impact of factors such as Trump's tariffs would have a greater impact on the Federal Reserve than on the Eurozone economy. While the United States faces the risk of accelerating inflation, the ECB is recording disinflationary trends.According to analysts at ABP Invest, the Fed is likely to raise the federal funds rate as early as September. The reasons will be strong economic growth in the United States, accelerating inflation and the need to maintain confidence in the regulator. At the first stage, the Fed will prefer to monitor the situation, then, in the second quarter, it will begin to give "hawkish" signals and in the third it will take action. Such a divergence in monetary policy between the United States and the Eurozone may be a key factor in the decline of the EUR/USD exchange rate.Trading recommendations for EUR/USDThe current downtrend for EUR/USD remains in effect. The bulls' attempts to overcome the resistance at 1,045 were unsuccessful, which allowed traders to activate short positions. If the pair breaks the 1.039 mark, it will generate additional signals to strengthen the shorts, with the potential for further depreciation below the parity level.Against the background of the general weakness of the Eurozone, the divergence of US and EU monetary policies, as well as the pressure of US trade policy, EUR/USD remains under pressure. Sales at the breakdown of key support levels look the most promising.EUR/USD technical analysisYesterday, in the short-term uptrend format, EUR/USD reached the upper Target zone of 1.0481 - 1.0453. After that, a downward correction began. The possible target of the corrective decline is the support area 1.0365 - 1.0356. After testing the support, we will consider new purchases with the first target at 1.0406, the second target is yesterday's maximum.The key trend support is shifting to 1.0319 - 1.0305. If this zone is reached during trading, then purchases can also be considered from it.

Focus of attention: the first week of the Trump presidencyMarkets continue to closely monitor the actions of Donald Trump in his first week as president of the United States. He is expected to sign a number of decrees, strengthening the political dynamics. These events continue to dominate the news agenda, leaving investors and world leaders to analyze the consequences of the 47th president's decisions.President Trump spoke for the first time about the conflict in Ukraine, calling on Russian President Vladimir Putin to reach an agreement, threatening to increase sanctions. Trump also suspended the financing of "green" infrastructure worth more than $ 300 billion and announced plans to attract $ 500 billion in private investment in the development of artificial intelligence. In addition, he announced possible 10% customs duties on Chinese imports and new tariffs for the EU, citing an "alarming" trade surplus of $350 billion.Key economic dataEurozoneConsumer confidence data for January will be released on Thursday. After two years of growth, this indicator decreased in November and December. Given that private consumption is the main driver of economic growth in the Eurozone in 2025, the state of consumer sentiment will be an important factor for economic forecasts.NorwayNorges Bank is expected to keep the key rate at 4.5%, with a hint of a reduction in March. Core inflation figures for December, which showed a decrease after the November jump, are likely to ease pressure on the Central Bank. However, global interest rates, the Norwegian krone (NOK) exchange rate and oil prices pose risks of a change in the December interest rate forecast. In the short term, Norges Bank is likely to take a cautious stance.JapanOn Thursday night, data on inflation (CPI) and business activity (PMI) for December will be released. Statistics are released on the eve of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting. Preliminary information from Tokyo shows that inflationary pressures decreased in December. The economic recovery continues, and inflation is close to the target level. The BoJ is expected to raise the rate by 25 bps, which is already partially embedded in investors' expectations.Stock marketsDespite analysts' warnings about volatility during the inauguration, global stock indexes showed growth.The MSCI World Index has reached a new all-time high, marking a seven-day rally. Investors who reduced their risks before the inauguration could have missed out on a 4% gain, which is equivalent to a six-month return.• The Dow Jones rose 0.3%.• The S&P 500 gained 0.6%.• Nasdaq rose 1.3%.• The Russell 2000 declined 0.6%.There is a mixed trend in Asia this morning. Chinese stocks initially rose on the back of statements of market support, but later this effect weakened. Futures for the US and European indices also show a slight pullback.Debt marketThe movement in global bond yields was modest. In the US, yields on 2-year and 10-year bonds rose by several basis points. In Europe, yields on German 10-year Bunds have also slightly increased, while the spread between German and Italian bonds is approaching 100 bps, and French securities have stabilized around 70 bps.The foreign exchange marketAmid expectations of the decisions of Norges Bank and BoJ, NOK strengthened, while JPY weakened. The EUR/USD pair remains stable and is trading just above the 1.04 mark.Conclusions1. Focus on the United States: President Trump's political actions continue to have an impact on markets, especially on the currencies of countries with high trade turnover with the United States.2. Europe: Declining consumer confidence in the Eurozone may weaken the euro in the short term.3. Japan and Norway: The monetary policy of these countries will be a key driver for the movement of NOK and JPY.

USD/CAD trading idea on January 22, 2025In Asian trading on Wednesday, USD/CAD maintains moderate growth, trading near the level of 1.4330. Against the background of recent events, the pair reached a 2020 high at 1.4515. This surge was caused by statements by US President Donald Trump about the possible introduction of 25% tariffs on Canadian exports from February 1.Canada, being the second largest trading partner of the United States with an annual turnover of about $ 600 billion, is under pressure due to the proposed duties. The main impact could be on the country's automotive industry, given that a significant part of the Canadian automotive industry is focused on the US market. Analysts predict that such tariffs could result in annual losses of more than $30 billion for the sector, and Canada's GDP could lose 0.5% or more.Additional pressure on the Canadian economy is exerted by the national emergency declared by Donald Trump in the energy sector. The new measures include simplifying the issuance of drilling permits and lifting restrictions on oil production in strategically important areas such as the Arctic. These actions are aimed at restoring the US national oil reserve, depleted during Biden's presidency. Increased oil production in the United States poses risks to the Canadian oil sector, one of the country's key export destinations.An additional factor of pressure on the Canadian dollar was the inflation report for December. The consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% on a monthly basis, against zero dynamics in November. The annual rate also slowed from 1.9% to 1.8%, raising doubts about the Bank of Canada's ability to achieve its 2% inflation target.Weak macroeconomic data reinforces expectations that the Bank of Canada may cut rates further at its next meeting in late January, possibly in increments of 50 basis points. If the forecasts are confirmed, the Canadian dollar is likely to continue to lose ground. John Murphy's technical analysis also confirms this scenario.Trading recommendationsUSD/CAD remains in the bullish zone, with the potential for further growth. In the event of an escalation of the trade conflict or increased expectations of monetary policy easing by the Bank of Canada, the pair may reach new local highs. Based on the above, we have placed a pending order for USD/CAD:• Buy Stop: 1.4350• Take Profit: 1.4550• Stop Loss: 1.4280

On Wednesday, GBP/USD held its position near the 1.2345 mark, which is the maximum on January 9, demonstrating stability even against the background of mixed data on the UK labor market.Recent reports show that the number of applications for unemployment benefits increased by 0.7 thousand in December after a decrease of 25.1 thousand a month earlier, which turned out to be much worse than the expected 10.3 thousand. The employment rate increased by 35,000, which is significantly lower than the previous growth of 173,000. Data from the Office for National Statistics of Great Britain for November indicates an increase in regular wages by 5.6% year-on-year over a three-month period, which exceeds the previous figure of 5.2%. This indicates the continuing inflationary pressure in the country's economy.However, analysts expect the Bank of England to continue cutting interest rates in February, although the pace of reduction may slow down. According to the OECD forecasts, the Bank of England's interest rate may increase by 2026. Alan Taylor, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, noted that the regulator's current policy assumes four rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the end of 2025, which will lead to a rate of 3.75%.On Friday, January 24, the GfK consumer confidence index and business activity data from S&P Global are expected to be published. The consumer confidence index is expected to decrease from -17.0 to -18.0 points, while the business activity index in the manufacturing sector may rise from 47.0 to 47.1 points, and in the services sector it will decrease from 51.1 to 50.6 points. In the United States, similar data may show a decrease in activity in the service sector from 56.8 to 56.6 points, and a slight increase from 49.4 to 49.6 points is possible in the manufacturing sector.On the daily GBP/USD chart, the Bollinger Band indicator is narrowing, indicating a decrease in volatility and mixed trading sentiment in the short term. The MACD indicator shows a confident buy signal, being above its signal line. Stochastic shows an upward trend, but is close to the overbought zone, which may signal a possible correction.Traders are advised to consider long positions when breaking up the 1.2359 level with a target level of 1.2500 and a stop loss at 1.2300. Sales will be relevant when the pair rebounds from the 1.2359 level and breaks up 1.2300. The nearest target will be 1.2200. We will set the stop loss at 1.2359.

USD/CHF showed steady growth, breaking the levels of 0.8950 and 0.9000. However, after testing the 0.9200 mark, the pair moved to correction.The 4-hour chart (H4) shows that USD/CHF has dropped to the level of 0.9050 and retains the potential for further decline. At the same time, the pair remains well above the 200-period simple moving average (green line). If the bulls can seize the initiative, they will drag the quote to the nearest resistance, which is near the level of 0.9120.A descending channel is forming on the chart with resistance at 0.9120. The next important resistance is located near the 0.9140 mark. A close above the 0.9140 level may set the tone for further rooting of the asset towards the resistance at 0.9200. The key obstacle will be the pivot level of 0.9240.Consider the "bearish" scenario. The nearest support is at 0.9050, and the next is around 0.9020. A breakdown below these levels may lead to a decline in the pair to the level of 0.9000 and the 200-period simple moving average (green line).

FOREX fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on January 22, 2025The adjustment of customs duties may be temporarily postponed, but their complete abolition is in no way part of the plans of the new US administration. Donald Trump clearly does not want shocks in the stock market, so he will gradually prepare the players for his actions. His recent statements about the possible imposition of 25 percent tariffs against Canada and Mexico starting in February, as well as 10 percent duties on Chinese goods, confirm this strategy. If these measures are implemented, the EUR/USD pair may return to a downward trend. However, is there any certainty about this?After the growth of the US dollar index by 7% since September, investors are faced with the question - is Trump's protectionist policy taken into account in the current exchange rate? Morgan Stanley is skeptical about the further strengthening of the dollar due to tariff risks, while Bank of America is confident that concerns about new duties will support the US currency. Even if the tariffs are postponed, they will remain an important element of the White House's economic policy.Brown Brothers Harriman, on the other hand, believes that tariff noise will not change the long-term bullish trend for the dollar. Import duties will only strengthen the existing growth drivers of the dollar index.This opinion has a logical basis. The dollar, as a safe haven asset, is strengthening amid rising volatility, which confirms its rally amid an increase in the US trade policy uncertainty index. Although universal tariffs were not introduced on inauguration day, this did not eliminate uncertainty, but only temporarily reassured investors.Investors should look beyond tariff discussions. All of Donald Trump's policies are pro-inflationary. Fiscal incentives will boost household incomes, deportations create labor shortages, and import duties disrupt supply chains. This may force the Fed to keep the rate unchanged for a long time.All other risks are nothing more than fears and speculation and have no effect on ingrained forex trading strategies. Recent rumors about US plans to strengthen currency controls and expand the list of currency manipulators may force other countries to strengthen their national currencies against the dollar. However, in the context of trade wars, states are usually inclined to devalue their own currencies to mitigate the negative consequences. Thus, the dollar should not be afraid of a significant devaluation.Donald Trump does not refuse to impose tariffs, but intends to prepare markets for innovation. In such circumstances, any growth in the EUR/USD pair will be temporary. An upward breakdown of the pivot level at 1.0445 may be a signal to build up long positions formed from the level of 1.0335. At the same time, traders should keep in mind the possibility of a reversal around 1.047 and 1.054.EUR/USD technical analysisPurchases of EUR/USD from the support area 1.0342 - 1.0333 have borne fruit. Yesterday, the bulls reached the first target in the area of 1.0384, and then the second at 1.0434. The next target in the short-term uptrend format is located in the Target zone of 1.0481 - 1.0453. If buyers break through this area and the pair gains a foothold higher, the growth may continue to the Golden Zone of 1.0554 - 1.0545.Long positions will be considered for correction from strong support levels. The key zones remain at the same levels, so if the price adjusts to them, then it will be possible to consider purchase transactions.