FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on April 16, 2024It is unlikely that anything can stop consumers if they want to buy, especially since wage growth is approaching historical highs. A sharp rise in retail sales in the United States has shaken debt and foreign exchange markets, lifting the USD index to highs over the past five months. The higher the demand from consumers, the stronger the economy, and the less likely it is that the Fed will lower the federal funds rate in 2024. This is disappointing news for the EURUSD bulls.In March, retail sales increased by 0.7%, and the underlying index increased by 1.1%, significantly exceeding the expectations of Bloomberg analysts. The data for February were revised upwards, which only fueled the optimism of the assessment of the economic situation in the United States. Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for US GDP in the first quarter from 2.5% to 3.1%, and Jefferies – from 2.2% to 3.1%. The forecast indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta indicates that the economy may grow by 2.8%. In such a situation, the Eurozone, with its weak economic growth, can only envy.UBS believes that the combination of impressive GDP growth and accelerating inflation creates the prerequisites for the return of the Fed's monetary policy tightening cycle. If the situation does not change, the Fed may not only refrain from lowering the rate in 2024, but also begin raising it in early 2025. This could lead to an increase in the rate to 6.5% by the middle of next year, which will be a powerful incentive for the US dollar.It is logical that speculative purchases of the dollar rose to the highs of August 2022. Interest in call options is at the highest level.In the futures market, the probability of the first reduction in the federal funds rate in June is 23%, in July – 48%, and in September – 72%. The probability of two acts of monetary expansion by the Fed in 2024 is estimated as fifty-fifty, although last week the risks of three steps by the Federal Reserve along the path of monetary policy easing amounted to 65%.The situation is further aggravated by the escalation of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. Judging by the emergency meeting of the military cabinet, Israel intends to repay Iran for the airstrikes on its territory, which raised the price of Brent crude above $90 per barrel, caused a decline in the S&P 500 index and increased demand for the US dollar as a protective asset.However, if there is no response, as well as if China's macroeconomic indicators turn out to be better than expected, and the IMF's forecasts for the global economy improve, the euro may receive support.Now there are excellent opportunities to sell EUR/USD at high prices with an eye to $1.06 and $1.05. After all, when FOMC members begin to retreat from their plans, the situation can become extremely unpredictable. And this applies not only to EURUSD. The change in the Fed's mood will change the positioning in forex currency trading. Now Mary Daly does not recognize the need for monetary expansion, and John Williams talks about a possible rate cut in the event of a slowdown in inflation this year with the prefix "maybe". But after a while, the Hawks camp may be replenished with new recruits.Technical analysis for EUR/USDThe day before, EUR/USD broke through the Golden Zone in the range of 1.0645 - 1.0636, the next target of sellers is the Target area 2, in the boundaries of 1.0561 - 1.0544. It is advantageous to open new sales on an upward correction, looking for an entry point in the resistance areas 1.0694 - 1.0686 and 1.0740 - 1.0728. Short positions can be formed after the appearance of a reversal signal. The bears' immediate target will be today's minimum.