USD/CHF is in weak activity and is trading near the 0.8540 level. Investors are being cautious and in no hurry to open new positions in anticipation of the publication of the minutes of the Fed's July monetary policy meeting and on the eve of Jerome Powell's speech at the annual Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole.
Markets are hoping to hear signals of a Fed interest rate cut as early as September, counting on 50 basis points. However, according to the CME FeedWatch Tool, the probability of this scenario is estimated at only 24.0%. In total, two or three rate cuts are forecast during 2024, which may put pressure on the dollar.
On Thursday, traders' attention will be focused on statistics on business activity in the United States: in the service sector, a decrease from 55.0 to 54.0 points is expected, and in the manufacturing sector, stabilization at the level of 49.6 points. A report on applications for unemployment benefits will also be published, which predicts an increase in applications from 227 to 230 thousand for the week of August 16.
Swiss foreign trade data published earlier did not have a significant impact on the franc. Exports decreased from 24.29 to 24.12 billion francs, while imports increased from 18.11 to 19.23 billion francs, which led to a decrease in the trade surplus from 6.12 to 4.89 billion francs.
The Daily chart shows that the Bollinger Band Indicator tends to turn sideways. The MACD indicator continues to decline below the signal line, and the Stochastic shows a steady downward trend approaching the minimum values.
With a confident breakout above the 0.8559 level, it is recommended to open long positions with a target of 0.8673. We will place the stop loss at 0.8500.
If the 0.8500 mark breaks down, it is worth switching to sales with a target of 0.8400. In this case, we will set the stop loss to 0.8559.