At Thursday morning's trading, USD/CHF is trading around 0.9065, showing mixed dynamics. Investors continue to analyze the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting held the day before. Market participants are in no hurry to open new forex orders, waiting for fresh macroeconomic reports, which will be plentiful today.
As predicted, the Fed kept the rate at 4.50%, confirming its intention to maintain a stable labor market and return inflation to 2%. However, the statement did not give clear hints on the timing of a possible easing of monetary policy, which leaves room for market speculation. The FOMC committee also ignored Donald Trump's comments on the need to reduce borrowing costs, focusing on macroeconomic indicators.
Key events that may affect USD/CHF
US employment data:
- Initial applications for unemployment benefits (forecast: decrease from 223 thousand to 220 thousand)
- Repeat applications (moderate decrease from 1,899 million to 1,890 million is expected)
- GDP estimate for Q4 2024:
- The US economy has probably slowed from 3.1% to 2.6%, which could put pressure on the dollar.
Tomorrow's publication of the PCE index:
- The Fed's inflation indicator is expected to grow from 2.4% to 2.6% (YoY) and from 0.1% to 0.3% (mom).
- The base PCE is likely to remain at 2.8%, which will be a key factor for future rate expectations.
In addition to American statistics, attention will be focused on data from Switzerland. The KOF index of leading indicators is expected to improve from 99.5 to 100.2 points, which may temporarily support the franc.
The ECB meeting will be held at 15:15 (GMT+2). According to forecasts, the rate will be reduced by 25 bps to 2.90%. If the regulator hints at further aggressive easing, demand for the dollar will increase.
USD/CHF technical analysis for today
- The Bollinger Band indicator narrows the price range, which signals a period of consolidation.
- The MACD is turning up, indicating a possible strengthening of the dollar.
- Stochastic has reached the overbought zone, which limits the growth potential of USD/CHF in the short term.
Trading recommendations
- Short (sell) — after the breakdown of 0.9037 down
- Target: 0.8964
- Stop loss: 0.9075
- Long (buy) — when consolidating above 0.9100
- Target: 0.9153
- Stop loss: 0.9075
The current consolidation in the area of 0.9065 indicates the lack of a clear direction of movement of the pair. A breakout of key levels will trigger a move in one of the directions.