During Thursday's Asian session, USD/JPY corrects a wave of active growth, which led to an update of record highs at 152.00. Former Deputy Finance Minister Eisuke Sakakibara said that the Bank of Japan may intervene in forex currency trading if the yen/dollar exchange rate reaches the area of 155.00–160.00. Earlier, investors expected active actions by the Japanese government when the key mark of 150.00 was reached, but these expectations turned out to be unjustified. Pressure on the US currency is also exerted by the results of the recent two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve.
As expected, the Federal Reserve keeps the interest rate at 5.50%, noting that in order to switch to monetary policy easing, it is necessary to confirm a stable decrease in inflation to the target level of 2.0%. The forecasts for rates for 2025 have been lowered. Now only three reductions are expected, instead of the four previously announced. After the publication of the protocols, expectations regarding the June rate adjustment have changed - the markets estimate the probability of an act of monetary expansion at 53.0%, previously this value was slightly higher than 60.0%.
The yen is supported by macroeconomic statistics: the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector and the service sector increased in March. The markets also drew attention to the growth of exports in February, which led to a reduction in the trade deficit.
On the daily chart, the Bollinger bands are trying to adjust in an upward direction. The MACD is growing, having formed a buy signal. The Stochastic oscillator is in the range of maximum values. But he turned down
Sales can be opened after a breakdown below the level of 150.50. The target is 149.50. We will set the stop loss at 151.00.
Long-term positions are advisable after the pair returns to the "bullish" dynamics. The signal of a steady reversal will be a breakdown of the 151.00 level up. The nearest target is at 152.00. Placing a protective stop loss at 150.50.