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Forex analysis and forecast for USD/JPY for today, November 3, 2022

USD/JPY, currency, Forex analysis and forecast for USD/JPY for today, November 3, 2022

On Wednesday, on release of the results of the Fed meeting USD/JPY went down sharply, but by the end of the day the buyers recouped all the losses and finished the trading in the "green" zone. On Thursday the pair is flat with a slight advantage of buyers trying to break above resistance at 147.50.

The Fed raised the rate by 75 basis points, which was what the markets expected. However, at the press-conference Jerome Powell reiterated the regulator's intention to continue the fight against inflation through tightening of monetary policy and stated that the initial targets on rates were insufficient.

At the same time, the Fed chief noted the possibility of a slowdown in the pace of monetary tightening at the December or January meeting.

Also yesterday the US labor market report from ADP was released, according to which employment for the month rose from 192.0 to 239.8 thousand.

Investors are now waiting for the release of Non-farm Payrolls on Friday, November 4.

The day before the Bank of Japan released its minutes, which noted the good pace of growth of the national economy and expressed concern about the falling yen, which could seriously damage businesses and households. The regulator cut its 2022 GDP forecast from 2.4% to 2.0% and raised inflation expectations from 2.3% to 2.9%.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The Bollinger Bands indicator for the Daily indicates a weak decline.

The MACD indicator remains in the positive range, but confidently descends to zero, forming a sell signal.

The stochastic oscillator has broken through the 80% level from above, came out of the overbought area and is developing a decline.

If the pair fixes below the support of 147.00, let's go long with Take Profit at 145.00. We'll put a protective stop at 148.00.

If the buyers are able to keep above 147.50, their next target is the key level of 150.00. We will set the stop loss at 148.00.

USD/JPY Daily Chart Forex

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EUR/USD: dollar is still undervalued
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Dec 24, 2024 Read
USD/CHF: Swiss inflation may reach zero
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Dec 23, 2024 Read
Forex analysis and forecast for NZD/USD for today, December 23, 2024
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Dec 23, 2024 Read
EUR/USD: dollar will continue to strengthen next year
EUR/USD, currency, EUR/USD: dollar will continue to strengthen next year FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on December 23, 2024The market was so afraid of the FOMC's December forecasts that it began to wonder if the Fed had completed its monetary easing cycle. This caused the EUR/USD pair to fall to a two-year low. However, the slowdown in the growth of the American index of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the dovish statements by the Fed representatives somewhat dampened the ardor of the bears. Even Donald Trump's threats against the EU could not affect the dynamics of the pair.In November, PCE grew by only 0.1%, which was the lowest since May. The core index also slowed to 2.8% year-on-year. The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams, insists on further rate cuts, and Mary Daly from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco agrees with the forecast of two stages of policy easing in 2025. Austin Goolsbee of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago assumes that the cost of borrowing will decrease over the next year and a half.Even the words of Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who voted to keep the rate at 4.75%, did not alarm investors. She believes that further rate cuts are possible if inflation continues to slow down. The drawdown of PCE to 0.1% supports the likelihood of policy easing as early as January. Derivatives have reduced the probability of a pause in the Fed's actions from 95% to 89%.Despite the rise in yields on Treasury bonds and US stock indices, the EUR/USD bulls remain active. Even Donald Trump's statement about possible tariffs on the EU if Europe does not increase purchases of oil and gas from the United States did not cause them serious concerns. This looks strange against the background of the EU's policy of abandoning Russian gas and expanding the share of American LNG to 48%.Although the EUR/USD bears have temporarily retreated, their positions remain strong. HSBC analysts do not expect the dollar to weaken in 2025. Manulife Investment Management sees the need to improve the global economy in order to reduce the USD index, but there are no signs of this yet. Deutsche Bank predicts a decline in the EUR/USD pair to the parity level.We recommend using EUR/USD pair corrections followed by a rebound from the resistance levels of 1.0465 and 1.0500 to form or strengthen short positions.
Dec 23, 2024 Read
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Dec 20, 2024 Read
Forex analysis and forecast for USD/CHF for today, November 20, 2024
USD/CHF, currency, Forex analysis and forecast for USD/CHF for today, November 20, 2024 On Friday, USD/CHF shows versatile fluctuations near the level of 0.8980. After testing local highs in early July, the asset declined amid the publication of fresh macroeconomic data from the United States.The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's index of business activity in the manufacturing sector unexpectedly fell from -5.5 to -16.4 points in December, although analysts had forecast an increase to 3.0 points. The personal consumption expenditure price index increased by 1.5% in the third quarter, and its base version rose from 2.1% to 2.2%. Initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased from 242 thousand to 220 thousand, which turned out to be better than the forecast of 230 thousand, and the number of repeat applications decreased from 1.879 million to 1.874 million, also exceeding expectations. In addition, sales in the secondary housing market increased by 4.8% in November, reaching 4.15 million against the forecast of 4.07 million.Swiss statistics reflected a decline in trading activity. Exports decreased from 27.826 billion to 23.682 billion francs, while imports fell from 19.801 billion to 18.257 billion francs, reducing the trade surplus from 8.025 billion to 5.424 billion francs. According to SECO, the Swiss economy is expected to grow by 1.2% in 2023, 1.6% in 2025, and 1.7% in 2026, which is lower than the average annual growth of 1.8%. Experts see the main driver of the recovery in domestic demand, as demand for Swiss goods in Germany and China continues to decline.Investors also continue to analyze the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting on December 18. As expected, the rate was reduced by 25 basis points to 4.50%. The regulator's new forecasts suggest a rate cut of 50 basis points in 2025, which differs from the September expectations of three consecutive cuts of 25 basis points.USD/CHF technical analysis for todayJohn Murphy's technical analysis on the daily chart shows the expansion of the Bollinger bands, which opens up opportunities for a bullish trend. The MACD indicator indicates a steady buy signal. Stochastic also demonstrates an attempt to reverse downwards, signaling a possible overbought dollar in the short term.Trading recommendationssale with a confident breakdown of the 0.8957 level down. The target will be the 0.8900 mark. We will put the stop loss at 0.8990.buy will be possible if the 0.8957 level acts as support, and then the pair breaks the 0.9000 mark up. In this case, the prospect of growth to 0.9100 opens up. We will place the stop loss at 0.8957.
Dec 20, 2024 Read
EUR/USD: Fed may return to raising rates
EUR/USD, currency, EUR/USD: Fed may return to raising rates FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on December 20, 2024Tariff disputes are just beginning to excite the Federal Reserve System (Fed), and Donald Trump is already initiating a partial government shutdown. The Republican rejected the proposal of the Speaker of the House of Representatives Michael Johnson on temporary financing of government agencies until March 14, insisting on a solution that includes raising the debt ceiling. However, the plan failed in the vote — 235 against 174. This led to the suspension of the government's work, which increased the volatility of currency pairs and increased interest in safe haven assets. EUR/USD, of course, continues to decline.Trump, in a familiar manner, called what was happening a "Biden shotdown," arguing that the current president is solely responsible for the government. He takes credit for the strong economy left by the Democrats and criticizes everything he considers problematic. Meanwhile, the economy is indeed showing resilience. U.S. GDP growth accelerated to 3.1% in the third quarter, higher than expectations and the previous estimate of 2.8%. The forecast of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta indicates a further increase to 3.2% in the fourth quarter.Trump's election victory was driven by criticism of high inflation under Joe Biden. However, his own policies, including tariffs and fiscal incentives, are pro-inflation and have already begun to influence the Fed's forecasts. Department Head Jerome Powell noted that some officials have begun to take into account the potential consequences of the new president's policies in their economic assessments. That is why the Fed limited forecasts to only two rate cuts in 2025, raising market doubts about the end of the monetary easing cycle.Despite accusations against the Fed for lowering rates against the backdrop of a strong economy and rising inflation, its actions look justified. The regulator is well aware that markets are responding to expectations. Investors began to ask questions: will the Fed continue to cut rates, was the December adjustment the last one, and could a new stage of policy tightening begin?These doubts were caused by a decline in stock indices, an increase in treasury bond yields and a strengthening dollar, which, in turn, tightened financial conditions and may slow down inflation.Thus, the growth in demand for protective assets due to the shotdown, rumors about the end of the Fed's policy easing cycle and the likelihood of tightening financial conditions contribute to the fall of EUR/USD.Ignoring the potential slowdown in the US economy due to the government shutdown, investors continue to sell euros. If the shotdown pushes the Fed to further rate cuts, the EUR/USD rate may reach the target of 1.03. The strategy is to keep short positions.EUR/USD Technical analysisEUR/USD is trading in a short-term downtrend. In the decline, sellers reached the Target zone of 1.0353 - 1.0326, but failed to break through it. Therefore, an upward correction may develop today, the purpose of which will be to test the resistance area (A) 1.0444 - 1.0435. After that, we will consider new sales with the first target at 1.0393, and the second target at today's minimum.If the resistance area (A) is broken up during trading, the correction will continue to the resistance area (B) 1.0494 - 1.0481. This zone is the boundary of the trend, and sales can also be considered from it.
Dec 20, 2024 Read
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