On Friday, against the background of the strengthening of the US dollar. AUD/USD is rolling back down, and at the moment it is trading around the key level of 0.6700
Fresh June data from the Australian labor market showed minor changes, which, nevertheless, failed to support the national currency. Seasonally adjusted, the unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 4.1%, and the share of the economically active population increased from 66.8% to 66.9%. The employment rate rose by 50.2 thousand to 14.406 million people, with an increase in full-time employment by 43.3 thousand and part-time employment by 6.8 thousand, which increased the employment-to-population ratio to 64.2%. The number of unemployed has increased from 598.5 thousand. up to 608.2 thousand, which is an increase of 1.6% on a monthly basis and 18.7% on an annual basis. These data indicate continuing problems in the sector, but the labor market remains strong enough to prevent the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) from moving to ease monetary policy. Most representatives of the RBA do not expect an interest rate cut this year.
The US dollar index reached 104.00. Yesterday, investors focused on the speech of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. He said he would stop the inflationary crisis and the rapid rise in energy prices by lowering interest rates and significantly increasing hydrocarbon production. These statements, repeating his previous statements, are consistent with the opinion of many experts and give investors hope for rapid changes in the US economy.
On the daily chart, the AUD/USD pair is correcting, retreating from the resistance line. Trading patterns involves the formation of an "expanding formation" model with boundaries of 0.6800–0.6300.
Technical indicators indicate a slowdown in the buy signal: the moving averages on the alligator indicator are approaching the signal line, and the awesome oscillator histogram is decreasing in the buy zone.
It is recommended to open short positions after the breakdown and consolidation of the price below the level of 0.6680 with a target of 0.6600. We set the stop loss to 0.6730.
We consider purchases after the price rises and consolidates above the level of 0.6720. The nearest target is 0.6800. We put the stop loss at 0.6660.