Forex analysis and forecast of USD/JPY for today, March 19, 2025

Eurozone: impact of PMI on ECB decisionAn important event this week will be the publication of preliminary PMI indices for March in the eurozone. The data may influence the decision of the European Central Bank on interest rates in April.The composite PMI is expected to rise from 50.2 to 50.6 due to the stabilization of the manufacturing sector. The manufacturing PMI is likely to rise from 47.6 to 48.4, while the indicator of business activity in the service sector will remain at 50.6.The dynamics of the PMI historically correlates with the ZEW index, which also rose in March, which may indicate an improvement in economic expectations.USA: weak dynamics in the manufacturing sectorIn the US, preliminary PMI data for March will also be published. Earlier, regional leading indicators pointed to a slowdown in industrial growth after the winter recovery, which may increase investor concern.The calendar of macroeconomic events in the United States for the current week is quite light. The Conference Board consumer confidence index will be released on Tuesday, and the core PCE price index, which is a key indicator of inflation for the Fed, will be released on Friday.China: stable monetary policy of the People's BankThis week, the People's Bank of China will make a decision on the key interest rate (1-year rate on medium-term MLF loans). It is expected that it will remain unchanged, as the regulator is not in a hurry to take active measures, awaiting further actions by the US Federal Reserve System. With a stable USD/CNY exchange rate, the Chinese Central Bank is more likely to focus on changes in the Fed rate, using alternative mechanisms to support the economy, such as targeted loan programs.Market overview: key events• Japan: The PMI indices for March were worse than expected. The manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.3, the lowest level in a year, while the services index fell to 49.5, dropping below 50 for the first time since August 2020. The head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, confirmed his readiness to raise rates if core inflation approaches 2%. Two increases of 25 bps are projected in 2024, the next one in July.• USA: Fed members continue to make cautious comments on the regulator's policy. The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams, said that a moderately restraining policy remains relevant. The Fed is still considering the first rate cut in June, followed by quarterly adjustments of 25 bps to the target range of 3.00–3.25% by June 2026.• Eurozone: The consumer confidence index fell from -13.6 to -14.5 in March, which is a negative signal for the ECB before the April meeting. The deterioration in household expectations calls into question the recovery in private consumption that the regulator is counting on.• Germany: The Upper House of Parliament has approved a large-scale fiscal stimulus package, including 500 billion euros for infrastructure, increased defense spending and easing regional budget constraints. These measures can accelerate economic growth, but also increase inflationary risks.• Canada: Prime Minister Mark Carney announced early elections on April 28. Initially, the Conservatives had a significant advantage, but the influence of Donald Trump reduced their gap.Geopolitics: Ukraine negotiations and trade risksConsultations between the United States and Ukraine on energy security and protection of critical infrastructure have begun in Saudi Arabia. Washington expects to conclude a 30-day truce by April 20, but the overnight strikes by both sides show that the situation remains unstable.In addition, Donald Trump confirmed that a new system of reciprocal tariffs will be announced on April 2, which could significantly affect global trade. It remains unclear exactly how the tariff regimes will change, but earlier Trump compared the VAT system in the EU with the actual trade barriers for the United States.Stock markets and currencies• Stock markets: Global indexes ended Friday in a slight negative, but the week as a whole turned out to be positive due to reduced concerns about tariffs. American technologies showed growth: Nasdaq +0.5%, S&P 500 +0.1%, Dow +0.1%. Asian markets are trading in different directions this morning, and futures on European and American indices indicate growth.• Forex: The US dollar ended the week with a strengthening, increasing in price for the third day in a row. EUR/USD briefly dropped below 1.08, but closed slightly higher. Despite the strength of the dollar, the Norwegian and Swedish krona strengthened, EUR/SEK fell below 11.00, and EUR/NOK — to 11.40.Current market conditions remain volatile, and the coming weeks will show how much the Fed's policy, trade risks, and geopolitical tensions will affect asset dynamics.

AUD/USD analysis on March 24, 2025The AUD/USD pair continues to adjust in a downtrend, around the level of 0.6277. Despite the positive business activity data from S&P Global for March, last week. The Australian dollar lost more than 130 pointsThe index of business activity in the Australian manufacturing sector rose from 50.4 to 52.6 points, and reached its highest level in the last 29 months. In the service sector, the index increased from 50.8 to 51.2 points, which contributed to the growth of the composite index from 50.6 to 51.3 points, a record high since September. These data point to an economic recovery, despite the high interest rates of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).However, the February labor market data is putting pressure on the Australian currency. Unemployment remained at 4.1%, but total employment fell by 52.8 thousand instead of the expected increase of 30.8 thousand. Full-time employment also decreased by 35.7 thousand. These data may push the RBA to more dovish rhetoric in the near future.The US dollar index recovered slightly to 103.7 points. Last week, for the first time this month, the dollar ended the session in the "green" zone.The US Federal Reserve kept its key interest rate unchanged, but announced plans for at least two rate cuts of 0.25% in the future. However, many experts doubt this, given the uncertainty in the market and lowered forecasts for the economy and inflation in 2025.AUD/USD technical analysis for todayAUD/USD on the Daily is approaching the support line of the ascending channel, the boundaries of which are in the range of 0.6480–0.6250.The Alligator indicator, as well as the Awesome Oscillator (AO), strengthen the sell signals.Trading recommendations- It is advisable to consider short positions after the price drops and fixes below the level of 0.6250. The nearest target will be 0.6130. It is recommended to set the stop loss at 0.6320.- Purchases are possible when the price rises and fixes above the level of 0.6310 with a target of 0.6410. The stop loss is 0.6250.

USD/JPY analysis on March 24, 2025Fundamental factors and market sentimentThe US dollar is showing moderate growth against the yen, continuing to develop the corrective upward movement formed on March 11. During Monday's Asian trading, the instrument is trying to gain a foothold above 149.80, updating the local highs recorded on March 19.The dollar is supported by the decision of the US Federal Reserve following last week's meeting, where the regulator kept the interest rate at 4.50% and confirmed that it does not intend to rush to ease monetary policy.According to the updated forecasts, the rate may decrease to 3.90% in 2024, which implies two or more adjustments of 25 bps. In the future, the decline may continue: to 3.40% in 2026 and 3.10% in 2027. However, the market was counting on a softer tone from the regulator, especially in light of political pressure from the administration of Donald Trump.On the other hand, the Bank of Japan also made no changes to monetary policy, keeping the rate at 0.50%. Central Bank Governor Kazuo Ueda noted the high uncertainty preventing further rate increases. However, the Japanese authorities expect increased inflationary pressures due to increased investment and wage indexation. For example, Japan's largest trade union Rengo has agreed with employers to raise wages by 5.4%, the highest in 34 years, which could accelerate inflation and lead to a tightening of policy in May or July.Weak macroeconomic statistics exerted additional pressure on the yen. In February, inflation in Japan slowed from 4.0% to 3.7%, while the core index (excluding food and energy) rose from only 2.5% to 2.6%. In addition, in March, the Jibun Bank Industrial business activity Index (PMI) decreased from 49.0 to 48.3 points, and in the service sector — from 53.7 to 49.5 points, indicating a slowdown in economic activity.USD/JPY technical analysis for todayAccording to the Daily, the main forex indicators confirm the upward trend:• The Bollinger bands are expanding, signaling an increase in volatility and a possible continuation of the upward movement.• The MACD remains in the positive zone, supporting the buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line).• Stochastic is turning up, but it is already approaching the overbought zone, which may limit the growth potential.Trading recommendations• Purchases are advisable with a confident breakdown of the 150.00 level with a target of 151.50. Stop loss: 149.09.• Sales can be considered at the breakdown of 149.09 down, which will confirm a return to the "bearish" scenario, with a target of 148.00. Stop loss: 149.60.The current technical picture indicates the dominance of the bulls, but the overbought dollar may trigger a corrective decline in the coming trading sessions.

On Monday, USD/CHF is correcting around 0.8835 after updating the December 6 low last week. Market participants expect new drivers to appear for the further movement of quotations.Today at 11:00 (GMT+2), investors' attention will be focused on the March data on business activity in the Eurozone. The index in the service sector is expected to grow from 50.6 to 51.0 points, and in the manufacturing sector — from 47.6 to 48.0 points. In Germany, the indicators may also improve: in the service sector — from 51.1 to 51.4 points, and in the manufacturing sector — from 46.5 to 47.7 points.At 15:45 (GMT+2), similar data for the United States will be published: the business activity index in the manufacturing sector is likely to decrease from 52.7 to 51.9 points, and in the service sector it will increase from 51.0 to 51.2 points.The economic expectations index from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) for March will be released on Wednesday at 11:00 (GMT+2). Earlier, the index value fell from 17.7 to 3.4 points, which is significantly worse than expected. The quarterly report of the National Bank of Switzerland (NBSH) will be published at 14:00 (GMT+2).The US Federal Reserve kept its key rate at 4.5%, but revised its forecasts: for the current year, the median forecast was lowered from 4.4% to 3.9%, for 2026 from 3.9% to 3.4%, and for 2027 from 3.4% to 3.1%. Long-term expectations remained at 3.0%.The Swiss National Bank lowered the rate to 0.25%, which was the fifth decline in a row. The decision was made against the background of a slowdown in inflation to 0.3% in annual terms in February, the lowest level in the last four years.USD/CHF technical analysis for todayThe Daily (d1) chart shows that the Bollinger Band indicator is turning horizontally, while the MACD indicator is growing, maintaining a buy signal. The stochastic oscillator is approaching the overbought zone, which indicates a possible correction in the short term.Trading recommendations- We will consider purchases after the breakout of the 0.8863 level. The target is 0.8929. It is recommended to set the stop loss at 0.8827.- Sales will be possible after the price drops and fixes below the level of 0.8800 with a target of 0.8755. In this case, we will place the stop loss at 0.8827.Thus, the USD/CHF pair remains influenced by both macroeconomic data and central bank decisions. The current correction creates opportunities for trading both up and down, depending on the breakdown of key levels.

FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on March 24, 2025Donald Trump said that April 2 would be "America's liberation day," hinting at the introduction of large-scale customs tariffs. The US president believes that such measures will force other countries to "pay" for decades of economic dominance over the United States. However, instead of the expected growth, experts are lowering forecasts for US GDP, and forex hedging shows that speculators are starting to abandon the dollar, taking a net "bearish" position on the US currency for the first time since November.In January, Wall Street Journal analysts expected the US economy to grow by 2.2% in 2025, but now their forecasts have been lowered to 1-1.5%. The Fed also revised down its expectations, lowering its GDP growth forecast from 2.1% to 1.7%. Similar adjustments were made by the OECD and the Fitch rating agency.The White House acknowledges that short-term difficulties are possible, but believes that tariffs will help reduce the foreign trade deficit. However, the effect may be the opposite: instead of strengthening the US position, other countries such as Europe and China are actively stimulating domestic demand to mitigate the effects of trade wars.China, for example, is studying Japan's experience in the 1980s, when Tokyo restricted exports to the United States and avoided higher tariffs. Instead of "drowning" other countries, Trump's policy may lead to a slowdown in the growth of the US economy and an acceleration of growth in competing regions.This explains why the EUR/USD downtrend has been broken, and the prospects for the euro look more optimistic. However, any trend requires correction, and the current growth of the euro may be replaced by a temporary pullback.The reason for profit—taking on EUR/USD long positions may be not so much the publication of data on the personal consumption expenditures index (the Fed's preferred inflation indicator) as April 2, the day when the White House will announce the launch of mutual tariffs.However, according to Bloomberg insiders, the new duties may not affect all, but only 15 countries with which the United States has a significant trade deficit or which impose high tariffs on American goods. This may mitigate the negative effect and limit the scale of the EUR/USD correction.Despite the optimistic outlook for the euro, the probability of a correction is growing. When the market is filled with optimism, it often becomes the best moment to sell. Data on Eurozone business activity for March may be a reason to sell EUR/USD with a target level of 1.0715.

During Thursday's Asian session, AUD/USD shows an active decline, developing the corrective impulse formed on Tuesday. Quotes are testing the 0.6340 level for a downward breakdown, while market participants are evaluating the February Australian labor market data released earlier.The seasonally adjusted employment rate decreased by 52.8 thousand after rising by 30.5 thousand in the previous month, which turned out to be significantly worse than the forecast of 30.0 thousand. The indicator of full—time employment decreased by 35.7 thousand (after an increase of 36.9 thousand), and part-time employment - by 17.0 thousand (after a decrease of 6.5 thousand). The share of the labor force in the total population decreased from 67.2% to 66.8%, which is also lower than expected at 67.3%.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.10% at its February meeting. Currently, the markets estimate the probability of continued dovish rhetoric at the May meeting and a third rate cut by the end of the year at 65%. However, RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said that the regulator remains more cautious than the market regarding further monetary policy easing.Results of the US Federal Reserve meetingInvestors are analyzing the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting, published the day before. As expected, the regulator kept the key rate at 4.50%, but adjusted its forecasts for the current year and the near future. The median rate forecast for the current year has been reduced from 4.40% to 3.90%, for 2026 from 3.90% to 3.40%, and for 2027 from 3.40% to 3.10%.The Fed also raised expectations for inflation and unemployment for the current year, but lowered its forecast for GDP growth. Inflation in 2025 is expected to reach 2.7% against the previous estimate of 2.5%. The unemployment rate may reach 4.4%, which is 0.1% higher than the previous forecast. The growth rate of the US economy in 2025 has been revised from 2.1% to 1.7%.Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stressed that there is no need to rush to adjust monetary policy, as the economy remains strong. However, uncertainty in macroeconomic forecasts has increased due to the US administration's trade policy, the effects of which on inflation are still difficult to assess.AUD/USD technical analysis for todayOn the daily chart (D1), the Bollinger indicator indicates a flat trend. The MACD indicator turned down, preparing to form a sell signal. Stochastic is also showing a decline.Trading recommendations- We will consider sales after the breakdown down to the level of 0.6319. The nearest target will be 0.6250. We will place the stop loss at 0.6350.- Purchases will become possible when growth resumes and the level of 0.6373 breaks up with a target of 0.6450. The stop loss is 0.6340.

Betting decisions: key events of the dayToday, the markets are focused on the decisions of three Central Banks at once — the Bank of England (BoE), the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Riksbank.The Bank of England is expected to keep the rate at 4.50%, which is in line with analysts' forecasts and current pricing in the market. The regulator's rhetoric is likely to remain unchanged, emphasizing the need for a gradual easing of monetary policy.In turn, the SNB is likely to cut the rate by 25 bps, to 0.25%, given the low inflation risks and weak dynamics of price pressure. Market expectations are also leaning in favor of a reduction, putting about 20 bps of mitigation in prices.The Riksbank is likely to leave the rate unchanged at 2.25%. However, there is a possibility of softer rhetoric, which may come as a surprise to the markets, given that the current market assessment suggests the possibility of a further step towards a rate hike.A Regional review of Norges Bank is also being released today. Investors will closely monitor GDP growth forecasts for the first and second quarters. According to preliminary data, economic activity is likely to remain in the range of 0.3–0.4% QoQ, which corresponds to the regulator's forecast made in December. However, special attention will be paid to capacity utilization indicators, as they play a key role in forecasting inflation and the subsequent trajectory of interest rates.Overview of economic events and market newsChina: sability of monetary policyThe People's Bank of China left key rates at the same levels: 1-year Loan Prime Rate — 3.10%, 5-year Loan — 3.60%. The decision was expected, but the market reaction remained restrained. The published economic data show a mixed picture of the state of the Chinese economy at the beginning of the year.The Fed's decision and the markets' reactionThe Fed, as expected, kept the rate unchanged. Jerome Powell presented a balanced statement, highlighting the existing risks, but at the same time making it clear that the regulator was in no hurry to change policy. As a result of this:• U.S. government bond yields have declined,• The dollar weakened,• Stock markets have strengthened.We still expect the first rate cut to take place in June, and the Fed may conduct three rounds of easing in total this year.Ukraine: negotiations with the United StatesThe telephone conversation between the Presidents of Ukraine and the United States was an important step in discussing long-term security guarantees. The main focus was on the prospects for a settlement of the conflict and a possible truce. However, at this stage, no real agreements on Ukraine's security have been reached yet.Stock market dynamicsGlobal markets ended the trading session with growth. In the US, indexes closed near daily highs as investors reacted positively to the outcome of the Fed meeting.• Dow Jones +0,9%• S&P 500 +1,1%• Nasdaq +1,4%• Russell 2000 +1,6%European markets have seen profit-taking after recent growth, especially noticeable in Germany, where the DAX has gained 17% since the beginning of the year.In Asia, trading takes place in different directions: the Japanese and Chinese markets are showing a decline, while the rest of the sites are mostly growing.European index futures are stable, while US futures indicate a possible continuation of growth, especially in the technology sector.Currency and debt marketsThe decisions of the Fed and the Bank of Japan led to a weakening of the dollar against the yen: USD/JPY fell below 149 after a decline in US bond yields reinforced the bearish trend against the dollar.EUR/USD remained near 1.09, while EUR/SEK rose above 11.00 again ahead of the Riksbank meeting.

GBP/USD review on March 20, 2025The British pound continues to show resilience against the US dollar. GBP/USD is correcting around 1.2979. The main factor supporting the pair is the weakening of the US currency, as well as positive data from the UK labor market.The statistics for January showed stability. The unemployment rate remained at 4.4%, while employment increased from 107.0 thousand to 144.0 thousand, and the number of applications for unemployment benefits increased from 2.8 thousand to 44.2 thousand. These indicators indicate a strong labor market, which in turn can support consumer spending and economic activity.The key event for the pound today will be the Bank of England meeting (14:00 GMT+2). The rate is expected to remain at 4.50%, with the majority of votes cast in favor of maintaining the policy (7 vs. 2). Investors are focused on the regulator's comments on future steps. Experts suggest that two more rate changes may follow this year, but the first easing of monetary policy is likely not earlier than summer.Additional uncertainty on the market is caused by the impact of US trade duties, as well as the entry into force of the new British budget, which provides for higher taxes for businesses. These factors may increase the pressure on economic growth and change the position of the monetary authorities.US Dollar: pressure from the FedThe dollar index continues to decline and reached 103.00. The greenback has been testing this level for the third day in a row. The Fed meeting did not support the national currency.As expected, the regulator left the rate unchanged in the range of 4.25–4.50%. However, the statements of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell turned out to be somewhat softer than expected. He stressed that the forecasts for inflation and economic growth have been revised down, which requires a moderate adjustment of the monetary policy rate. In particular, it was decided to slow down the reduction in the balance sheet, which includes a more restrained pace of sales of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities.These comments provoked a decline in US Treasury bond yields and a weakening of the dollar, which, through currency correlation, supported demand for risky assets, including the pound.Technical analysis of GBP/USD for todayOn the daily chart, the pair remains below the resistance line of the ascending channel, the range of which is limited by the levels of 1.3210–1.2830.The indicators indicate a predominance of bullish sentiment:• The moving averages (EMAS) of the Alligator indicator are moving up, strengthening the buy signal.• The Awesome Oscillator (AO) histogram is in the positive zone and increases the volume of correction bars, which confirms the upward trend.Trading Recommendations• Purchases are possible after the breakdown and price consolidation above 1.3050. The target is 1.3260. The stop loss is 1.2950.• Sales can be considered with a decline and consolidation below 1.2950. The target is 1.2700. The stop loss is 1.3020.Thus, the short-term outlook for GBP/USD will depend on the outcome of the Bank of England meeting and the market's reaction to the regulator's comments. In the case of a softer tone of the statement, the pound may adjust downwards, but in the medium term there remains a chance for a resumption of growth.