AUDUSD: 'Aussie' trades in decline
The AUDUSD trading instrument displays a moderate decline, renewing the "bears'" advantage earlier attempting a trend change in the asset, hoping to gain support from technical factors and conflicting data in the United States. For example, demand for long-life goods slipped by 4.5% in January compared to a 5.1% increase in the previous month, with a negative trend of -4.0% expected. Capital goods outside the aerospace and defence sector gained 0.8%, down 0.3% previously in December, against expectations of a zero trend.
Australian statistics recorded a strong gain in core business profits for Q4 2022 of 10.6%, having previously declined by 11.5% in the prior period with an expected gain of 1.5%. Today's macroeconomic statistics release failed to provide support for the asset. Meanwhile, retail sales in January added 1.9% against a 3.9% drop in the previous month, while experts were expecting an uptrend of 1.5%.
- Resistance levels: 0.6750, 0.6800, 0.6850, 0.6900.
- Support levels: 0.6700, 0.6628, 0.6583, 0.6520.
USDCHF: The "American" currency trades multidirectionally
During the APAC trading session USDCHF currency pair recovers the positions lost earlier, having lost an opportunity to gain a foothold at the local high of December 7.
The American currency was under pressure due to technical factors which was aggravated by the weak macro data. For example, Durable Goods Orders fell by -4.5% in January compared to a strengthening of 5.1% in December, against expectations of only a 4.0% negative trend. The value outside the aerospace and defence sector rose by 0.8%, having previously decreased by 0.3%. The Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for February dropped to -13.5 points from the previous -8.4 points as forecasters had anticipated.
- Resistance levels: 0.9400, 0.9427, 0.9478 and 0.9550.
- Support levels: 0.9350, 0.9300, 0.9250, 0.9200.
USDJPY: The Japanese economy has a dim outlook
The positive momentum of the American dollar is depriving the yen of an advantage as the USDJPY is testing the 136.27 level.
The leading economic indicators of the index on which economists and investors constantly rely, decreased by 0.5% in February, signalling a lack of prospect for an uptrend in Japanese economic data in the short-term. The trend is also confirmed by this morning's industrial activity report, which showed a 4.6% decrease for January compared to a previous 0.3% gain for December, the most significant monthly decline since the summer of 2022. Core inflation, according to the statistics of the Japanese Finance Ministry, maintained the previous period's position at 3.1% and showed zero fluctuation.
- Resistance levels: 136.87 and 139.73.
- Support levels: 135.10, 133.35.
The precious metal is declining at 1814.46 resuming bearish momentum amid an unsuccessful attempt to develop an uptrend. The asset showed a loss of ground throughout last week, where selling had already peaked on Friday due to the release of solid statistics on inflationary personal consumption expenditures - one of the most important factors for planning further steps on the monetary parameters of the US financial authority. Gold had earlier strengthened on the back of technical factors, while fundamentals continued to be negative for the instrument in anticipation of another round of monetary tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England and ECB officials.
About 75% of experts, who monitor the situation, are sure that the US regulator will increase the key indicator by 0.25% up to the target of 4.75-5.00% in annual rate, assuming the probability of withdrawal of the level above the psychological threshold of 5.00%. Meanwhile, the British and European regulators may attempt a 0.50% retracement of the value in a bid to deprive inflation of growth prospects.
- Resistance levels: 1828.22, 1850.27, 1869.49, 1886.46.
- Support levels: 1800.00, 1786.28, 1765.66, 1753.09.