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Forex analytical forecast for today, February 28, for AUDUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY & Gold

AUD/USD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for today, February 28, for AUDUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY & Gold

AUDUSD: 'Aussie' trades in decline

The AUDUSD trading instrument displays a moderate decline, renewing the "bears'" advantage earlier attempting a trend change in the asset, hoping to gain support from technical factors and conflicting data in the United States. For example, demand for long-life goods slipped by 4.5% in January compared to a 5.1% increase in the previous month, with a negative trend of -4.0% expected. Capital goods outside the aerospace and defence sector gained 0.8%, down 0.3% previously in December, against expectations of a zero trend.

Australian statistics recorded a strong gain in core business profits for Q4 2022 of 10.6%, having previously declined by 11.5% in the prior period with an expected gain of 1.5%. Today's macroeconomic statistics release failed to provide support for the asset. Meanwhile, retail sales in January added 1.9% against a 3.9% drop in the previous month, while experts were expecting an uptrend of 1.5%.

  • Resistance levels: 0.6750, 0.6800, 0.6850, 0.6900.
  • Support levels: 0.6700, 0.6628, 0.6583, 0.6520.

USDCHF: The "American" currency trades multidirectionally

During the APAC trading session USDCHF currency pair recovers the positions lost earlier, having lost an opportunity to gain a foothold at the local high of December 7.

The American currency was under pressure due to technical factors which was aggravated by the weak macro data. For example, Durable Goods Orders fell by -4.5% in January compared to a strengthening of 5.1% in December, against expectations of only a 4.0% negative trend. The value outside the aerospace and defence sector rose by 0.8%, having previously decreased by 0.3%. The Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for February dropped to -13.5 points from the previous -8.4 points as forecasters had anticipated.

  • Resistance levels: 0.9400, 0.9427, 0.9478 and 0.9550.
  • Support levels: 0.9350, 0.9300, 0.9250, 0.9200.

USDJPY: The Japanese economy has a dim outlook

The positive momentum of the American dollar is depriving the yen of an advantage as the USDJPY is testing the 136.27 level.

The leading economic indicators of the index on which economists and investors constantly rely, decreased by 0.5% in February, signalling a lack of prospect for an uptrend in Japanese economic data in the short-term. The trend is also confirmed by this morning's industrial activity report, which showed a 4.6% decrease for January compared to a previous 0.3% gain for December, the most significant monthly decline since the summer of 2022. Core inflation, according to the statistics of the Japanese Finance Ministry, maintained the previous period's position at 3.1% and showed zero fluctuation.

  • Resistance levels: 136.87 and 139.73.
  • Support levels: 135.10, 133.35.

Gold prices

The precious metal is declining at 1814.46 resuming bearish momentum amid an unsuccessful attempt to develop an uptrend. The asset showed a loss of ground throughout last week, where selling had already peaked on Friday due to the release of solid statistics on inflationary personal consumption expenditures - one of the most important factors for planning further steps on the monetary parameters of the US financial authority. Gold had earlier strengthened on the back of technical factors, while fundamentals continued to be negative for the instrument in anticipation of another round of monetary tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England and ECB officials.

About 75% of experts, who monitor the situation, are sure that the US regulator will increase the key indicator by 0.25% up to the target of 4.75-5.00% in annual rate, assuming the probability of withdrawal of the level above the psychological threshold of 5.00%. Meanwhile, the British and European regulators may attempt a 0.50% retracement of the value in a bid to deprive inflation of growth prospects.

  • Resistance levels: 1828.22, 1850.27, 1869.49, 1886.46.
  • Support levels: 1800.00, 1786.28, 1765.66, 1753.09.
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Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, silver and oil for Thursday, July 18, 2024
EUR/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Silver, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, silver and oil for Thursday, July 18, 2024 EUR/USD: the results of the ECB monetary meeting will be announced todayIn the Asian session, the EUR/USD exchange rate stabilized at 1.0928, while investors refrain from active trading, awaiting the outcome of today's meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), scheduled for 14:15 GMT+2.Analysts assume that the ECB will continue its policy of lowering interest rates, confirming this with a possible adjustment in September, followed by a regular reduction in rates every quarter. ECB President Christine Lagarde regularly focuses on the importance of taking into account the macroeconomic situation in making key decisions. So, in June, there was an upward revision of inflation expectations: it is assumed that in 2024 inflation will be 2.5%, and in 2025 it will be 2.2%, with basic indicators of 2.8% and 2.2%, respectively. In the latest report for June, inflation remained at 0.2% on a monthly basis and decreased from 2.6% to 2.5% on an annual basis. Core inflation registered 0.4% monthly growth, which is higher than the forecast of 0.3%, and the level of 2.9% in annual terms. Despite the growing price pressures in the services sector, ECB representatives may increase caution in adjusting monetary policy. Surveys indicate a slowdown in wage growth to less than 4% by the end of the year, which, according to the regulator, will help achieve the inflation target of 2% in the first half of 2025.Resistance levels: 1.0945, 1.0986, 1.1047.Support levels: 1.0803, 1.0742, 1.0645.USD/CAD: inflation data did not strengthen the position of the Canadian dollarDuring the current trading session, the USD/CAD pair demonstrates a downward correction, reaching the level of 1.3678 against the background of a noticeable weakening of the US dollar.Not being supported by inflation data, the Canadian currency showed moderate reactive growth. Information on the decline in the consumer price index in Canada turned out to be better than expected, but did not reach a level capable of influencing monetary policy. In June, the index decreased by 0.1% monthly and from 2.9% to 2.7% per annum. The basic indicator, excluding food and energy, increased slightly from 1.8% to 1.9% in monthly and annual terms. This dynamics led to an overall decrease in the inflation index from 2.4% to 2.3%, without becoming a key factor for changing the key rate of the Bank of Canada, which continues to carefully analyze the situation in the labor and real estate markets.Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3790.Support levels: 1.3660, 1.3590.Silver market analysisThe price of silver is steadily rising, reaching the 30.40 mark, against the background of moderate growth in the market.Silver retains some backwardness from gold, which continues to update highs, due to relatively weak demand on industrial exchanges. In conditions of political instability, when investors have limited resources of available funds, preference is given to more reliable assets. Data from the London Metal Exchange (LME) shows that the current trading volume of silver futures is 72.3 thousand lots, whereas in June this figure was in the range of 130.0–140.0 thousand lots. A recent report by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) also reflects a slowdown in dynamics: over the week, the volume of purchases from manufacturers increased by only 0.133 thousand, and sales increased by 3.125 thousand, indicating potentially low volatility of silver in the near future.Resistance levels: 30.76, 32.14.Support levels: 30.00, 28.70.Crude Oil market analysisDuring the Asian session, the price of WTI crude oil is held at $81.86 per barrel, influenced by China's economic statistics.China's GDP increased by 4.7% in the second quarter of this year, compared with growth of 5.3% in the previous quarter and a projected 5.1%. The decline in retail sales in June from 3.7% to 2.0% — below the expected 3.3% — raises concerns about slowing economic growth in the world's second largest economy and falling demand for oil from the leading importer. According to the data, imports of crude oil in China decreased both monthly and annually, which confirms the assumption that demand has reached a peak amid the rapid development of the electric vehicle market in the country. The news that the US and the EU are imposing new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles is heightening trade tensions.Nevertheless, statistics on oil reserves provide some support for prices. The American Petroleum Institute (API) recorded a decrease in reserves from 1.923 million barrels to 4.440 million barrels, while the Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted a decrease in reserves by 4.870 million barrels from the previous 3.443 million barrels, exceeding the forecast reduction of 0.900 million barrels.Support levels: 80.00, 76.80.Resistance levels: 82.40, 85.10.
Jul 18, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY and GBP/USD for Wednesday, July 17, 2024
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY and GBP/USD for Wednesday, July 17, 2024 EUR/USD: ZEW report indicates worsening economic conditions in GermanyThe EUR/USD pair is showing growth against the background of a weakening US dollar, maintaining the level of 1.0902 during the Asian session. At the same time, the European currency does not show a significant improvement in its position this week due to economic data indicating continued difficulties in the main EU economies.The latest report from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) showed that the index of current economic conditions in Germany in July was -68.9 points, which is an improvement from the previous value of -73.8 points, but the indicator of economic sentiment fell to 41.8 points from 47.5 points. The index of economic sentiment in the EU also fell to 43.7 points, reaching the level of April lows. ZEW President Achim Wambach commented on the data, pointing to a deterioration in the economic outlook due to lower exports, political uncertainty in France and uncertainty about the future policy of the European Central Bank (ECB). Additionally, the ECB household survey showed an increase in loan requests, which indicates expectations of a soft monetary policy. Despite some improvement in inflation indicators, economic stability in the EU remains weak, which prevents a more significant growth of the euro.Support levels: 1.0870, 1.0800.Resistance levels: 1.0922, 1.1010.AUD/USD: In Australia, households anticipate an increase in mortgage rates for 2025During Asian trading, the AUD/USD pair stabilized around the value of 0.6737.The Australian dollar is strengthening as market participants expect further interest rate hikes in light of the latest data from Westpac Banking Corp., which showed a drop in consumer sentiment to a new low: the index fell by 1.1%, reaching 82.7 points compared with the previous 83.6 points. Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan pointed to a steady decline in sentiment over the past two years, despite significant government attempts to adjust tariffs as part of tax reforms to support low- and middle-income citizens. Concerns about ongoing inflation and a possible further increase in interest rates are once again beginning to put increased pressure on consumer sentiment, neutralizing any positive effects from financial support. The weighted average consumer price index in Australia rose from 3.60% to 4.00% year-on-year, exceeding analysts' expectations of 3.80%. In light of this, more households are starting to expect an increase in mortgage rates in the next 12 months, with this figure already reaching almost 60.0% in June. Also, the latest decline in Australian dairy exports by 17.0% and an increase in imports by 19.0% are partly due to China's efforts to increase domestic production through significant public investment, which reduces dependence on imported goods. Labor market data for June will be published on Thursday at 3:30 (GMT+2): unemployment is expected to rise from 4.0% to 4.1% and full-time employment growth will slow from 39.7 thousand to 20.0 thousand, which will confirm the stability of the sector in the face of tight monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).Support levels: 0.6715, 0.6628.Resistance levels: 0.6760, 0.6850.GBP/USD: UK consumer price index fell to 0.2% in the month to JuneThe GBP/USD pair stabilized at 1.2968 after a significant rise last week caused by the weakening of the US dollar.The pound maintains a moderate growth rate in light of the latest inflation data, which reached 2.0% in June, repeating the figure of the previous month and consolidating within 1.5–2.0% for the first time in several years. Excluding the cost of fuel and food, the core price index remained at 3.5% year-on-year, falling from 0.5% to 0.2% month-on-month. The stability of inflation in the target corridor of the Bank of England creates prerequisites for a transition to a softer monetary policy. It is expected that at the meeting on August 1, officials may reduce the interest rate from the current 5.25% to 5.00%.Resistance levels: 1.3010, 1.3170.Support levels: 1.2910, 1.2740.USD/JPY: IMF revised Japan's GDP estimate for 2024The USD/JPY pair is on the verge of exiting the long-term upward channel, falling to the level of 157.81. The slowdown in economic growth in the United States and a decrease in inflation are putting pressure on the US dollar, which may lead to a change in monetary policy.Tomorrow, traders will closely monitor the updated data on Japan's foreign trade: it is expected that at 01:50 (GMT+2) statistics will be published showing a decrease in exports from 13.5% to 6.4% and imports from 9.5% to 9.3%, which will affect the slowdown in the fall in the trade balance from -1220.1 billion yen to -240.0 billion yen. At the same time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) made adjustments to Japan's economic growth forecast, reducing it from 0.9% to 0.7% amid problems with car supplies related to the Daihatsu Motor Co. scandal and weak private investment in the first quarter.Resistance levels: 159.37, 160.93, 162.50, 164.06.Support levels: 157.81, 156.25, 154.68.
Jul 17, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD for Monday, July 15, 2024
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD for Monday, July 15, 2024 EUR/USD: a drop in the consumer price index in the EU has been recordedThe EUR/USD pair is showing growth against the background of the weakening of the US dollar, with the current quote at 1.0895. The euro is expected to strengthen this week thanks to encouraging economic data.In particular, in France, the consumer price index increased by 0.1% in June compared to the previous month, slowing annual growth from 2.3% to 2.2%, while the harmonized index, which meets EU standards, decreased from 2.6% to 2.5%. In Spain, the indicator also adjusted, showing monthly growth of 0.4% and a decrease in annual inflation from 3.6% to 3.4%. The decrease in inflation in Germany confirms the slowdown in the overall inflation rate in the region, which will allow officials of the European Central Bank (ECB) to avoid a rush to adjust monetary policy and maintain current interest rates for the near future.Meanwhile, the US dollar is showing a weakening, with quotes at 103.80 on the USDX index. Recently, the University of Michigan reported a decrease in the consumer expectations index from 69.6 to 67.2 points and a deterioration in the consumer sentiment index from 68.2 to 66.0 points, while the indicator of current conditions also decreased from 65.9 to 64.1 points. This trend points to consumer expectations of a slowdown in the U.S. economy in the foreseeable future.Resistance levels: 1.0910, 1.1010.Support levels: 1.0870, 1.0760.GBP/USD: pound is growing steadily, reaching the level of 1.2972 in a monthOver the past month, the GBP/USD pair has seen strengthening, maintaining at around 1.2972.Unlike the US Federal Reserve System, where the prospects for rate cuts are growing, the Bank of England shows a tendency to stabilize the cost of borrowing, which contributes to the strengthening of the pound. UK GDP growth in monthly terms amounted to 0.4%, exceeding analysts' expectations of an increase of 0.2%, and reached 1.4% year-on-year, ahead of forecasts at 1.2%. This supports the risks of renewed acceleration of inflation, forcing Bank of England officials to adhere to a cautious policy. At the moment, only a few board members, including Swati Dhingra, are in favor of stepping up action, while most, including Catherine Mann and Hugh Pill, are not yet ready to adjust policy. Consequently, analysts estimate the probability of a change in interest rates in August as unlikely so far, at the level of 50%.Resistance levels: 1.3061, 1.3183.Support levels: 1.2750, 1.2573, 1.2451.NZD/USD: New Zealand assessed the consequences of tight monetary policyDuring Asian trading, the NZD/USD pair fluctuates in the range of 0.6140–0.6075, approaching its lower limit. The market is closely monitoring the actions of the New Zealand monetary authorities in anticipation of new incentives for movement.Last week brought no changes in interest rates from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), which have remained at 5.50% since May 2023 — for the eighth time in a row. However, due to tight monetary policy, the inflation rate has been reduced, and it is expected that by the end of the year they will return to the target range from 1.0% to 3.0%. The easing of tension in the labor market indicates a more cautious approach by companies to hiring and an increase in the supply of labor. Also in June, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector fell from 47.2 to 41.1 points, and retail sales by electronic cards improved from -1.2% to -0.6% monthly and from -1.6% to -4.9% per annum. New data on inflation and the state of the labor market are expected in the coming weeks, which will have a significant impact on monetary decisions. In particular, this Friday at 00:45 GMT+2, the market will assess the quarterly dynamics of the consumer price index: a decrease from 0.6% to 4.0% per annum is expected, which may affect the RBNZ's decision to cut rates in August and weaken the New Zealand dollar. Analysts assume that the first rate cut of 25 basis points will occur in October, and the second is likely in November.Resistance levels: 0.6140, 0.6225, 0.6286.Support levels: 0.6075, 0.6010, 0.5981.USD/CAD: Canadian inflation data for June will be published soonThe USD/CAD pair is approaching the level of 1.3657, waiting for news from Canada that may affect the exchange rate.Tomorrow at 14:30 GMT+2, June inflation figures are expected, which will become key for the future monetary policy of the Bank of Canada. Analysts foresee a decrease in annual inflation from 2.9% to 2.6%, while the monthly index may accelerate from 0.1% to 0.3%. Core inflation is expected to fall from 1.8% in a month, and annual inflation from 0.6%, which may contribute to a transition to a more lenient policy. Such changes will reduce the cost of debt servicing, stimulating consumer and investment spending, which will contribute to economic recovery. Statistics on new homes launched in June will also be published, with a projected decrease from 264.5 thousand to 260.0 thousand, which may affect the value of the Canadian dollar.Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3480.Resistance levels: 1.3680, 1.3780.
Jul 15, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF and USD/CAD for Friday, July 12, 2024
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF and USD/CAD for Friday, July 12, 2024 EUR/USD: euro stabilizes at its local peaksThe EUR/USD pair shows ambiguous trading trends, being near the 1.0870 mark. On the previous day, the euro actively increased in value, updating the maximum values since June 7, but could not hold on to new heights, losing some of the acquired positions by the end of the day. By Friday morning, market activity had significantly decreased.Meanwhile, the latest data from Germany showed that the consumer price index in June remained at the level of 0.1% monthly increase and 2.2% annual growth, confirming the possibility of further interest rate adjustments by the European Central Bank (ECB). In this context, the results of a Reuters survey of leading economists indicate that the ECB may cut rates twice this year — in September and December. However, if inflation, especially in the services sector, stabilizes above the target level, the central bank may limit itself to one adjustment of its policy.Resistance levels: 1.0900, 1.0930, 1.0964, 1.1000.Support levels: 1.0863, 1.0844, 1.0820, 1.0800.GBP/USD: pound is growing on the back of good UK GDP dataDuring the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair stabilizes around the level of 1.2915, while not staying at the recently updated annual highs. This happened after the publication of inflation data, which reinforced expectations of a near-term reduction in the cost of borrowing by the US Federal Reserve. The consumer price index in June slowed to 3.0% per annum from 3.3%, falling short of the projected 3.1%, and the monthly dynamics decreased by 0.1% after stabilization in the previous month. Core inflation also declined, which, together with the latest labor market report indicating a downward revision in the number of jobs created in May, disappointed investors. In addition, the speech by the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, emphasized the need to assess the economic situation as a whole, which increases the chances of an interest rate cut in September. As a result, the markets expect two rate adjustments in 2024 of 25 basis points each.On the other hand, recent statistics from the UK showed GDP growth of 0.4% in May after stagnating in April, exceeding expectations of 0.2%. The annual increase in industrial production was 0.4%, despite the previous fall of 0.7%, with a projected increase of 0.6%. The monthly figure was also in line with forecasts, accelerating by 0.2% after a 0.9% decline. Economic growth in the UK supports the risks of accelerating inflation and reduces the likelihood of an early reduction in the cost of borrowing by the Bank of England, especially given hints from members of its board about a possible continuation of current rates, including recent comments by Bank representative Catherine Mann and chief economist Hugh Pill about continued inflationary pressures, especially in the service sector, and significant wage growth, which makes a correction monetary policy is unlikely in the near future.Resistance levels: 1.2948, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100.Support levels: 1.2900, 1.2860, 1.2817, 1.2776.USD/CHF: annual inflation in the United States decreased to 3.0%The USD/CHF pair is at 0.8958, demonstrating a corrective decline against the background of the weakness of the US dollar and the stability of the Swiss franc caused by the lack of new macroeconomic data.Investors are analyzing the latest conversations between Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao and the Swiss head of the Federal Department of Economic Affairs, Education and Research Guy Parmelin. During the meeting, it was decided to deepen the free trade agreement, which became a key point in the context of trade restrictions caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. These restrictions have made it more difficult to export Swiss goods, and a new agreement to improve the terms of trade could significantly support the Swiss economy, given that China ranks third among its trading partners. According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), last year's exports to China amounted to 40.6 billion francs, while imports amounted to 18.4 billion francs. The expansion of the trade agreement is expected to increase these volumes by at least 30%.Resistance levels: 0.9000, 0.9100.Support levels: 0.8930, 0.8840.USD/CAD: lower range heralds new lowsThe USD/CAD pair shows a slight decrease against the Canadian dollar, being at the level of 1.3620 in anticipation of new factors that could affect the exchange rate.Today, at 16:00 GMT+2, the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan in the United States is expected to be published, projected at 68.5 points for July, which is slightly higher than the previous value of 68.2 points. Earlier at 14:30, investors will pay attention to data on production inflation for June, the expected growth of which will be from 2.2% to 2.3% per annum and from -0.2% to 0.1% monthly, while the basic producer price index excluding food and energy should rise from 2.3% to 2.5%. Yesterday's report on the consumer price index showed a slowdown from 3.3% to 3.0% per annum, which was below expectations of 3.1%, and the monthly change was 0.1% after stability in the previous month, contrary to forecasts of an increase of 0.1%. The base rate also decreased from 0.2% to 0.1% monthly and from 3.4% to 3.3% per annum. Given the declining dynamics of the labor market, the US Federal Reserve may reconsider its policy towards easing at the September meeting. In particular, recent data showed a decrease in initial applications for unemployment benefits from 239.0 thousand to 222.0 thousand, and repeated applications — from 1,856 million to 1,852 million, which is also lower than the expected 1,860 million.Resistance levels: 1.3650, 1.3675, 1.3700, 1.3733.Support levels: 1.3614, 1.3588, 1.3550, 1.3524.
Jul 12, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for AUD/USD, USD/JPY, silver and crude oil for Thursday, July 11, 2024
AUD/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Silver, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for AUD/USD, USD/JPY, silver and crude oil for Thursday, July 11, 2024 AUD/USD: the increase in the price range opens the way to new peaks for the bullsThe AUD/USD pair is showing noticeable growth, updating its maximum values since the beginning of the year as part of its upward trajectory on short- and ultra-short-term horizons: the currency pair is testing the 0.6760 level for possible overcoming, using the weakness of the US dollar, which is under pressure due to increasing expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve.The Australian dollar is influenced today by fresh macroeconomic statistics: the index of inflation expectations from the Melbourne Institute for July decreased from 4.4% to 4.3%, and the total number of construction permits issued in May jumped from 1.9% to 5.5%, including an increase in permits for the construction of new homes from -3.0% to 2.1%. Despite these positive indicators, experts emphasize that the construction sector is still under the onslaught of high interest rates from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The full recovery of this sector is expected only after the transition to a more lenient monetary policy, which may not happen this year due to the incessant growth in consumer prices.Resistance levels: 0.6775, 0.6800, 0.6825, 0.6850.Support levels: 0.6750, 0.6725, 0.6700, 0.6679.USD/JPY: currency stabilizes at historical peaksThe USD/JPY pair is showing mixed trading, again checking the level of 161.70. The previous time, the currency instrument made attempts to take new heights, but the available incentives were not enough for rapid growth.Today's statistics from Japan showed that orders for engineering products increased by 10.8% year-on-year in May, significantly exceeding expectations of 7.2% and the previous increase of 0.7%. However, the monthly indicator decreased by 3.2%, which is worse than the previous value of -2.9% and initial estimates of 0.8%. Prices for corporate goods in June fell to 0.2% compared to a month earlier, against a forecast of 0.4%, but increased from 2.6% to 2.9% on an annual basis, which is in line with expectations. Against the background of a strong decline in the yen and rising prices for imported raw materials, investors' confidence in the possible imminent tightening of the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan is strengthening. Sources of the Reuters news agency report that in the near future the regulator may adjust the forecasts of the country's economic growth, while confirming expectations of an increase in inflation to the target of 2.0%.Resistance levels: 162.00, 162.50, 163.00, 163.50.Support levels: 161.30, 160.80, 160.25, 159.92.Silver market analysisDuring the Asian trading session, the silver exchange rate (XAG/USD) has been steadily rising, focusing on an uptrend after mixed results at the beginning of the week and approaching the 31.00 mark in anticipation of new incentives for further movement.Important data on inflation in the United States is expected to be published today at 14:30 GMT+2, which may have a significant impact on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System. Analysts assume that the consumer price index in June will decrease to 3.1% per annum from the previous 3.3% and show a slight increase of 0.1% on a monthly basis after stabilization in May. Markets continue to expect one or two rate cuts by the end of 2024, with the first one likely to be announced as early as September. In his recent speech to the Senate, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted significant changes in the labor market, indicating its slowdown, and stressed the need to take into account the risks of changes in the cost of borrowing, focusing not only on inflation, but also on the general trends of the slowdown in the US economy. At the end of the week, investors' attention will focus on data on industrial inflation, where, according to forecasts, the index will increase from 2.2% to 2.3% per annum and rise from -0.2% to 0.1% on a monthly basis.Resistance levels: 31.15, 31.49, 32.00, 32.50.Support levels: 30.75, 30.50, 30.15, 29.84.Oil market analysisBrent Crude oil prices are showing moderate growth, continuing to rise after the publication of a report on a decrease in oil reserves in the United States, with the current trading level around $85.00 per barrel.According to the latest data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), the volume of reserves decreased by 1,923 million barrels after a previous decrease of 9.163 million barrels. A similar trend was shown by the report of the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA), which recorded a decrease of 3.443 million barrels after a decrease of 12.157 million barrels in the previous period, which is in line with analysts' forecasts. The total reduction in reserves over the past two weeks has exceeded 15 million barrels, which pushes for the possibility of a new stage in the release of oil from US strategic reserves, as previously mentioned in the presidential administration.Resistance levels: 86.00, 89.90.Support levels: 84.00, 81.00.
Jul 11, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF and AUD/USD for Tuesday, July 9, 2024
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF and AUD/USD for Tuesday, July 9, 2024 EUR/USD: according to the head of the Central Bank of the Netherlands, the ECB will cut rates in SeptemberDuring the Asian trading session, the euro shows a slight increase against the US dollar, hovering around the 1.0830 mark ahead of important macroeconomic announcements this week. Traders are cautious in opening new positions, waiting for key economic statistics.The political instability caused by the results of parliamentary elections in European countries also contributes to the pressure on the euro. So, in France, after the second round of elections, the New Popular Front coalition won, while Marine Le Pen's far-right National Unification party took only third place, and the coalition of incumbent President Emmanuel Macron retained second place. According to experts, the French parliament remains divided, and the formation of a new government may face problems: recently acting Prime Minister Gabriel Attal resigned, but the president refused to accept it.Meanwhile, Claes Noth, head of the Dutch Central Bank, expressed the opinion that the European Central Bank (ECB) is unlikely to cut interest rates this month, but the September meeting may be more flexible and allow for necessary adjustments. He stressed that the measures taken to control inflation are effective and the target of 2.0% will be achieved by the end of 2025. Nevertheless, the duration of the process of stabilization of inflation levels indicates a slow decline in the deposit rate from the current 3.75%, which still limits economic growth. Markets expect from one to two changes in the cost of borrowing this year and up to four changes over the next eighteen months, assuming that the deposit rate will remain above 3.00% in the second half of 2025.Resistance levels: 1.0844, 1.0863, 1.0900, 1.0930.Support levels: 1.0820, 1.0800, 1.0765, 1.0730.GBP/USD: the UK, with the new prime minister, is looking for ways to strengthen trade with the EUThe pound sterling is showing stagnation, having stabilized around the 1.2800 mark. The day before, it reached new highs since June 12, but by the end of the day, most of the acquired advantages were lost. The support for the currency was influenced by the outcome of the parliamentary elections, in which the Labor Party, which advocates reducing public spending, won for the first time in 14 years. However, this factor is beginning to lose its relevance.On Thursday, investors in the UK will focus on GDP data for May, which is expected to show economic growth from 0.0% to 0.2%. It is also expected that industrial production will increase by 0.6% year-on-year after the previous decrease of -0.4%, and monthly growth by 0.2% after a significant drop of 0.9%.Meanwhile, new Prime Minister Keir Starmer, while on a visit to Scotland, announced the intentions of the Labour Party to strengthen ties with the European Union to review trade agreements concluded by former Prime Minister Boris Johnson in 2020. However, according to experts from the UK in a Changing Europe think tank, these actions may have a limited impact on reducing government spending, which increased after Brexit. In addition, they note that 78% of Labour voters would support Britain's return to the EU.Resistance levels: 1.2817, 1.2860, 1.2900, 1.2963.Support levels: 1.2776, 1.2730, 1.2700, 1.2650.USD/CHF: SECO forecasts strengthening of consumer sentiment in SwitzerlandDuring the Asian trading session, the USD/CHF exchange rate settled at 0.8983, influenced by the weakening of the US dollar and a less pronounced strengthening of the Swiss franc, which may receive support from upcoming data from the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) this month.According to forecasts, in June, the consumer sentiment index will reach the level of -37.0 points, which is 3.0 points higher than a year ago. Sub-index indicators are also expected to improve, including expected economic development, financial situation and planning for significant purchases. Analyzing the trends of the consumer sentiment indicator, it can be noted that after a decline starting in July 2023, by autumn the indicator reached a minimum level of -53.0 points. However, SECO's current forecasts are much more positive and may contribute to the strengthening of the Swiss franc.Support levels: 0.8950, 0.8830.Resistance levels: 0.9020, 0.9160.AUD/USD: at Westpac Banking Corp. they do not rule out a rate cut in Australia in NovemberDuring the Asian trading session, the AUD/USD exchange rate is gaining momentum, stabilizing at 0.6742. The rise in quotations is supported by the latest inflation data, which may affect the postponement of monetary policy changes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), especially considering that such an option was considered at their last meeting in June.At the same time, experts from Westpac Banking Corp. It is assumed that a rate cut in November remains likely, as the central bank seeks to stimulate an increase in employment. Analysts expect rates to fall to 4.10% in November, to 3.85% by March and to 3.10% by next September. Nevertheless, if the fall in the consumer price index continues, and the labor market remains stable, this may push the RBA to take more drastic measures. On the other hand, today's data from the National Australia Bank (NAB) showed an increase in the business confidence index from -2.0 to 4.0 points, based on a survey of 350 companies. At the same time, Westpac's consumer sentiment indicator fell from 1.7% to -1.1%, highlighting the negative impact of high interest rates on the economy.Support levels: 0.6700, 0.6580.Resistance levels: 0.6760, 0.6870.
Jul 09, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for AUD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY and Oil for Monday, July 8, 2024
AUD/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Analytical Forex forecast for AUD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY and Oil for Monday, July 8, 2024 AUD/USD: the price tends to the upper limit of the "expanding pattern"Against the background of the weakening of the US dollar, the AUD/USD pair is experiencing an upward correction, trading at 0.6752, while the Australian dollar remains stable.In May, there was a decrease in the volume of loans for the purchase of housing in Australia by 1.7%, reaching 28.8 billion Australian dollars, which follows an increase of 4.8% in April and turned out to be 18.0% higher than a year earlier. Loans for the purchase of residential real estate decreased by 2.0% month-on-month to 18.1 billion, and by 12.2% year-on-year. Housing intended for investment fell in value by 1.3% to 10.7 billion Australian dollars, which is 29.5% higher than last year. Changes in the rates on fixed loans for individuals amounted to a decrease from 0.9% to -0.7%, and on loans for transport — up to 0.8%. Although the pace of slowdown is not in line with analysts' expectations, interest rates remain high.Resistance levels: 0.6770, 0.6850.Support levels: 0.6730, 0.6670.USD/CAD: consolidation of the exchange rate after a short period of growthDuring the Asian trading session, the USD/CAD pair shows volatile trends, remaining at around 1.3640 after a recent moderate increase, which allowed the US currency to move away from its minimum values for May 20 against the background of recent macroeconomic data.In June, the number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector of the United States decreased from 218.0 thousand (revised data from 272.0 thousand) to 206.0 thousand, which turned out to be better than analysts' forecasts at the level of 190.0 thousand. The average hourly earnings were adjusted from 4.1% to 3.9% year-on-year, and from 0.4% to 0.3% month-on-month, which helps to reduce inflationary pressure. At the same time, the unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 4.1%, contrary to market expectations. Meanwhile, investors' attention is focused on political events, including the debate between U.S. President Joe Biden and his opponent Donald Trump, as well as parliamentary elections in Europe, especially in France and the United Kingdom.In Canada, the employment indicator for June decreased by 1.4 thousand, which is a deviation from the previous month, when an increase of 26.7 thousand was recorded, despite expectations of maintaining positive dynamics at the level of 22.5 thousand. Average hourly earnings increased from 5.2% to 5.6%, putting pressure on inflation risk assessments. The unemployment rate increased from 6.2% to 6.4%, exceeding forecasts at 6.3%, while the Ivey business activity index improved from 52.0 to 62.5 points, ahead of analysts' expectations of 53.0 points.Resistance levels: 1.3650, 1.3675, 1.3700, 1.3733.Support levels: 1.3614, 1.3580, 1.3550, 1.3524.USD/JPY: the correction of the US dollar continues on the background of new data from JapanThe USD/JPY pair is experiencing a moderate decline, continuing the corrective trend that began last week after moving away from peak values around 162.00. Now the exchange rate is checking the level of 160.50 for a possible further decline, while traders evaluate fresh economic data from Japan and the latest employment report in the United States, released on Friday.Meanwhile, data on wage dynamics were published in Japan today: in May, this figure increased from 1.6% to 1.9%, falling short of the expected 2.1%. Lending volumes in the banking sector in June also showed an increase from 2.9% to 3.2%, exceeding forecasts at 3.1%. The index of assessment of the current situation according to Eco Watchers improved from 45.7 to 47.0 points in June, and expectations for the future increased from 46.3 to 47.9 points. At the same time, the consumer spending index in May decreased by 0.3% monthly, contrary to the forecast of 0.5% growth, and decreased by 1.8% per annum, which is significantly lower than the initial estimate of 0.2%. Analysts expect these indicators to recover in the near future, as companies will gradually increase salaries. In general, consumer activity in Japan remains at a low level, supporting the likelihood of maintaining the Bank of Japan's soft monetary policy.Resistance levels: 160.80, 161.30, 162.00, 162.50.Support levels: 160.25, 159.92, 159.30, 159.00.Oil market analysisPrices for the Brent Crude Oil brand are observed in a weak decreasing trend at 86.00, slowing down after last week's rise.According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), crude oil inventories changed from 0.914 million barrels to -9.163 million barrels, and data from the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy (EIA) shows a change from 3.591 million barrels to -12.157 million barrels, which helped support prices last week. This Monday's negative trends were formed against the background of the election of reformist Masoud Pezeshkian, a supporter of expanding the geography of oil supplies, to the post of president of Iran. Currently, Iran exports hydrocarbons to 17 regions of the world, while in recent years its production volume has increased from 2.2 million barrels per day to 3.57 million barrels, which allowed the country to take fourth place in OPEC.Resistance levels: 86.60, 90.00.Support levels: 85.50, 82.80.
Jul 08, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY and Silver for Thursday, July 4, 2024
EUR/USD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Silver, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY and Silver for Thursday, July 4, 2024 EUR/USD: the sustainability of current growth is questionableThe EUR/USD pair, which maintains a long-term downward trend, is showing an uptrend this week, checking the value of 1.0803 at the Murray level [5/8].Weak US economic reports and minutes of the June meeting of the US Federal Reserve put the dollar under pressure. Employment data from ADP showed a slowdown in growth to 150,000 jobs, which was the lowest result since February. Weekly statistics also revealed an increase in the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits to 238 thousand and an overall increase in recipients of state support to 1,858 million, which is the highest since March. These signs of a slowdown in the labor market reinforced expectations of easing the Fed's monetary policy, highlighted by the regulator's recognition of slowing economic activity and reducing inflationary pressure in recent minutes, and also noted a decrease in wage growth and lower prices for large enterprises.Despite this, the recent rise in EUR/USD may be short-lived, as the probability of an interest rate correction by the European Central Bank also increases. Recent data on inflation in the eurozone showed positive dynamics: the consumer price index adjusted from 2.6% to 2.5% year-on-year, the producer price index improved from -5.7% to -4.2%, and the composite business activity index fell from 52.2 to 50.9 points, which may push the ECB to a softer monetary policy at the upcoming September meeting.Resistance levels: 1.0803, 1.0864, 1.0945.Support levels: 1.0742, 1.0620, 1.0559.USD/CHF: stagnation of consumer prices in Switzerland in JuneThe USD/CHF pair is experiencing a technical correction this week, approaching an important psychological support mark at 0.9000. The pressure on the US currency is increasing due to the festive lull in investor activity in the United States, due to the celebration of Independence Day. At this time, traders are analyzing the latest macroeconomic data: the decline in the ISM index of business activity in the service sector in June from 53.8 to 48.8 points, which is significantly lower than the expected 52.5 points, was particularly worrying. Statistics from S&P Global also showed a slight change, from 55.1 points to 55.4 points, although no changes were expected. In addition, the volume of production orders decreased by 0.5% in May after an increase of 0.4% in the previous month.Tomorrow at 14:30 (GMT+2), the June report on the US labor market is expected to be published, which may have a significant impact on the Fed's interest rate policy. Forecasts suggest a reduction in the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector from 272.0 thousand to 190.0 thousand, a decrease in the average hourly wage from 4.1% to 3.9% per annum and from 0.4% to 0.3% monthly, with an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.0%. At the Sintra forum, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that the regulator maintains a wait-and-see attitude regarding interest rate adjustments, while carefully assessing the risks between controlling inflation and a possible deterioration in the labor market. The Fed's official forecasts suggest a possible interest rate cut of 25 basis points by the end of the year to 5.10%, while experts predict one to two adjustments, possibly as early as September.Resistance levels: 0.9037, 0.9071, 0.9100, 0.9130.Support levels: 0.9000, 0.8964, 0.8935, 0.8900.USD/JPY: medium-term economic background undermines the yen's positionThe USD/JPY currency pair shows an upward trend in the long term: yesterday the maximum of the year was reached at 161.95, but today's trading showed a slight decrease. Pressure on the dollar was exerted by the latest employment data from ADP and the contents of the minutes of the June meeting of the US Federal Reserve System, where there was a minimal increase in employment since February — only 150,000 jobs, as well as recognition of the slowdown in economic recovery and weakening inflation processes, which may encourage the Fed to switch to a softer monetary policy in the fall.Nevertheless, the medium-term fundamental analysis still looks unfavorable for the Japanese yen. The Bank of Japan's interest rates remain significantly lower compared to other developed countries, and in light of Japan's current economic weakness, which showed a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter decline in GDP, the Bank of Japan has shown no desire to raise them. The business activity index fell to 49.7 points in June, indicating stagnation. In this context, although the Japanese government is ready for currency interventions, experts believe that at significant cost, the effect of such measures will be temporary, and the growth of the USD/JPY pair is likely to continue in the near future.Resistance levels: 162.50, 164.06, 165.62.Support levels: 159.37, 157.81, 156.25.Silver market analysisYesterday, silver prices rose by 3.3%, reaching the level of 30.49, following the publication of US GDP data for the second quarter and minutes of the last Fed meeting.US GDP grew by 1.5% in the second quarter, which was lower than the expected 1.7% and the previous figure of 1.7%, which was confirmed in the report of the Federal Reserve System. Most of the participants in the June meeting noted that economic growth in the United States is gradually slowing down. They expressed their readiness to respond to macroeconomic dynamics, including through easing monetary policy if necessary. Such prospects strengthened investors' expectations regarding a possible reduction in interest rates in September from 63.4% to 66.5% per day, which contributed to the weakening of the dollar and the growth of silver quotations to this level.Resistance levels: 30.71, 32.23.Support levels: 28.72, 27.55, 26.26.
Jul 04, 2024 Read
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