The New Zealand dollar shows a moderate decline against the US currency during the Asian session, retreating from the local highs updated the day before, and trying to gain a foothold below the psychological level of 0.7000.
The strong growth of the instrument yesterday was due to the publication of disappointing macroeconomic statistics from the United States. Thus, according to the results of the 2nd quarter of 2021, the US GDP increased by only 6.5% y/y after an increase of 6.3% y/y in the 1st quarter (revised from +6.4% y/y). Analysts' forecasts were much more optimistic and assumed an increase of 8.5% y/y. Another negative factor for the US currency was the statistics on applications for unemployment benefits. For the week of July 23, the number of initial applications decreased from 424 thousand to 400 thousand, which turned out to be worse than market expectations at the level of 380 thousand.
The data from New Zealand did not have a noticeable impact on the dynamics of the instrument. Nevertheless, the ANZ consumer confidence index fell from 114.1 to 113.1 points in July.
Support and resistance levels
The Bollinger bands on the daily chart show flat dynamics within the forex forecast. The price range expands from above, freeing the way for the "bulls" to new local highs. The MACD indicator is growing, maintaining a moderate buy signal (the histogram is located above the signal line). Stochastic, after a short decline, again demonstrates weak growth, while signaling the growing risks of overbought New Zealand dollar in the ultra-short term.
Resistance levels: 0.7000, 0.7017, 0.7050, 0.7100.
Support levels: 0.6970, 0.6950, 0.6921, 0.6900.
Trading Scenarios
Thus, the Forex forecast and analytics of NZD/USD for August 2-3, 2021, to open long positions, you can rely on the breakdown of the 0.7017 mark up. Take profit — 0.7070. The stop loss is 0.6990. Implementation period: 2-3 days.
A confident breakdown of the 0.6970 level down may be a signal for new sales with a target of 0.6921. The stop loss is 0.7000.