Forex. Trading forecast for WTI Oil for today, April 13
WTI crude oil is trading around the level of $59.5 per barrel without significant price changes since the beginning of last week.
Recently, the quotes are in approximately the same range, as investors try to assess the impact of the increase in the incidence of coronavirus in the world on the prospects for a recovery in demand. Traders are particularly concerned about the next aggravation of the situation with the virus in Asia. At the same time, in general, the market remains optimistic about the exit from the pandemic. This is facilitated by the acceleration of the rate of vaccination, which is beginning to be carried out in most countries of the world. Therefore, expectations of the imminent lifting of restrictions on movement are growing stronger.
The market's attention was also focused on the dynamics of demand. The increase in production agreed by the OPEC+ countries coincides with a seasonal jump in consumption, which is due to an increase in car traffic in the summer. But economic constraints remain, which adds a significant amount of uncertainty to demand forecasts. It remains to be seen whether demand growth will catch up with supply in the second quarter.
Another factor that carries risks for oil markets is the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear deal. If successful, the sanctions against Iran may be partially or completely lifted. Then production in the country can grow by 1.5-1.8 million barrels per day, which will put additional pressure on the market balance. Reuters data already shows a faster recovery in production in the first quarter of the year.
In the forecast, I expect WTI oil to decline to $58.50 per barrel.