Brent Crude Oil Trading forecasts and signals

EUR/GBP: euro is declining due to the ECB's rhetoricThe European currency remains under pressure in the EUR/GBP pair, showing weak dynamics during the Asian session. The instrument is moving within the downtrend formed on January 23, testing the 0.8360 level and updating the minimum values since January 9.The main factor in the decline of the euro was the outcome of the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB). As analysts predicted, the regulator reduced key interest rates by 25 basis points: the base interest rate is now 2.90%, and the deposit rate is 2.75%. In an official commentary, ECB representatives expressed concern about the potential acceleration of inflation and said they would continue to closely monitor macroeconomic indicators. At the same time, wage growth rates are beginning to stabilize, which, according to experts, will have a restraining effect on inflation risks in the future. There were no clear signals regarding further monetary policy, but a significant number of analysts believe that the ECB may continue to cut rates at each subsequent meeting until mid-summer.Additional support for the pound was provided by the data on lending published the day before: in December, the volume of consumer loans increased from 0.905 billion pounds to 1.045 billion pounds, exceeding expectations of 0.95 billion pounds. The net consumer lending rate also showed significant growth, from 3.5 billion pounds to 4.6 billion pounds, reaching its highest level since September 2022. In addition, the number of approved mortgage applications increased from 66,061 thousand to 66,526 thousand, while forecasts suggested a decrease to 65,400 thousand. These figures indicate the continued steady demand for loans, which increases investor optimism about the prospects for the UK economy, despite the increase in the tax burden planned in the new budget. In addition, the Reuters news agency presented the results of the latest survey of experts: the overwhelming majority of respondents expect that at the next meeting the Bank of England will cut the interest rate from 4.75% to 4.50%, after which it will take a break to assess the effectiveness of its policy.Resistance levels: 0.8370, 0.8384, 0.8400, 0.8419.Support levels: 0.8350, 0.8340, 0.8326, 0.8310.NZD/USD: a cautious correction before the statistics on the US PCE indexThe New Zealand dollar shows moderate growth in the NZD/USD pair during the Asian session, consolidating near 0.5646 after weakening during the week. The technical correction contributes to the recovery, as market participants prefer to refrain from active transactions ahead of the publication of key data on inflation in the United States. Investors' attention is focused on statistics on the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), which is a guideline for the Federal Reserve when making monetary policy decisions. The base index is projected to increase from 0.1% to 0.2% in December, maintaining the annual value at 2.8%, while the overall index may strengthen to 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year.Macroeconomic data from New Zealand published on the eve reflected a decline in business confidence: the index from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decreased from 62.3 to 54.4 points, and the indicator of forecasted business activity from ANZ fell from 50.3% to 45.8%. At the same time, the situation in foreign trade improved: December exports increased from 6.42 billion to 6.84 billion New Zealand dollars, while imports decreased from 6.85 billion to 6.62 billion dollars. As a result, the monthly trade balance entered a positive zone, recording a surplus of $219 million against a deficit of $435 million in November.Meanwhile, RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway noted that New Zealand is losing ground in the global economy, losing ground not only to its largest trading partners, but also to emerging economies. According to his forecasts, the GDP growth rate in the next three years will be 1.5%-2.0% per year, which is significantly lower than historical figures. According to Conway, the key reasons for the slowdown were the weak dynamics of foreign trade, lack of foreign investment, lack of financing for innovative developments and lack of qualified personnel.Resistance levels: 0.5650, 0.5672, 0.5700, 0.5723.Support levels: 0.5633, 0.5607, 0.5571, 0.5540.USD/CAD: US GDP slowed to 2.3% at the end of the year, contrary to forecastsThe USD/CAD pair remains under pressure from fundamental factors, holding in the area of 1.4480 and demonstrating the potential for updating local highs.The US currency is showing a moderate correction, rising to around 108.00 in the USDX index on the back of fresh macroeconomic data. According to published statistics, the US GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter slowed from 3.1% to 2.3%, falling short of analysts' forecasts of 2.7%. At the same time, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased from 223.0 thousand to 207.0 thousand in a week, which temporarily supported the dollar. Investors are also closely monitoring the upcoming introduction of import tariffs, which are expected to take effect tomorrow. US President Donald Trump has confirmed that the new restrictions will affect shipments from Canada, Mexico and several other countries. According to the American leader, the imposition of duties is due to the inability of these states to control illegal migration, as well as their policy of significant subsidies that create a trade imbalance to the detriment of the United States.Resistance levels: 1.4520, 1.4740.Support levels: 1.4410, 1.4170.Crude Oil market overviewThe quotes of WTI Crude Oil continue to move within the corrective trend, again approaching the important level of 72.00. The upward momentum is supported by the ongoing uncertainty regarding the trade policy of the US Republican administration, which forces investors to exercise caution.The latest statistics on raw material stocks had an additional impact on price dynamics. Thus, data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), published on Wednesday, showed only a slight increase in oil volumes in storage — by 2,860 million barrels after an increase of 1,000 million a week earlier. A similar report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed an increase in inventories of 3.463 million barrels, while previous figures recorded a decrease of 1.017 million barrels. This information increased the pressure on oil prices, contributing to the persistence of negative market sentiment.Meanwhile, traders are paying attention to the latest statistics from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). According to the latest report, the volume of net speculative positions decreased from 306.3 thousand to 298.8 thousand contracts in a week. Despite this pullback, the indicator remains at a fairly high level, which increases the likelihood of sharp price fluctuations in the coming trading sessions.Support levels: 72.10, 69.00.Resistance levels: 74.00, ...

The Fed is preparing for a pause, investors' attention is focused on key meetings of Central banksToday, the Federal Reserve System (Fed) is expected to take a pause in the rate cut cycle, leaving the target range of 4.25–4.50% unchanged.This decision is consistent with market assumptions and consensus forecasts.In March, the Fed may cut the rate by 25 bps, but high uncertainty in fiscal and trade policy is likely to prevent Jerome Powell from giving a clear signal on further steps.Macroeconomic background: attention to the GDP of Spain and SwedenSpanish GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024 will be published today, and an aggregated indicator for the Eurozone will be released tomorrow. The Spanish economy shows steady growth: +0.8% QoQ in the second and third quarters. Growth is expected to be 0.6% QoQ in the fourth quarter, which confirms the positive trend. The European Commission will also present a draft of the Competitiveness Compass, a new EU economic strategy until 2029 aimed at simplifying regulation and accelerating growth.In Sweden, a preliminary GDP estimate will be released at 08:00 CET, and if the forecast of 0.3% QoQ is confirmed, this will ensure annual economic growth of 0.6%. The Riksbank will hold a meeting at 09:30 CET, where the rate is expected to decrease by 25 bps to 2.25%. Given the weak inflation data and declining consumer demand, the likelihood of a second consecutive rate cut remains high.Bank of Canada's decision: market expects policy easingThe Bank of Canada will announce the rate decision at 15:45 CET today. A decrease of 25 bps to 3.00% is expected, which coincides with analysts' forecasts. The main reasons for monetary expansion are oversupply in the market, trade risks due to US policy and expectations of further easing of monetary conditions. In addition to the rate decision, the BoC will also publish a quarterly monetary policy report to help understand the regulator's next steps.Recent events: market reactionJapan: the Bank of Japan is preparing for further rate hikesMinutes of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting in December showed that the regulator was discussing a neutral interest rate after a prolonged period of deflation.According to BoJ estimates, its range is in the range of 1.0–2.5%, but the head of the bank, Kazuo Ueda, noted that accurate calculations are difficult.In January, the BoJ already raised the rate from 0.25% to 0.5%, and it is projected to increase further to 1.0% over the course of the year.Australia: weakening inflation increases the chances of a rate cut by the RBA.Inflation data in Australia for the fourth quarter turned out to be lower than expected. The core consumer price index decreased to 3.2% QoQ (expected 3.3%, previous value 3.5%). This reinforces expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may cut interest rates as early as February, which will be the first policy change in more than a year.USA: declining consumer confidenceAccording to the Conference Board, the consumer confidence index in the United States declined in January, indicating a weakening of sentiment regarding both the current situation and future expectations. A decrease in consumer intentions to go on vacation has become particularly noticeable, which may signal a slowdown in demand.At the same time, the "job availability index" has fallen to a minimum since September, which confirms the weakening of the labor market. However, it is worth considering the political factor - according to the University of Michigan, Republican respondents are much more optimistic about the economy than Democrats, which may influence the results of polls.Eurozone: tough credit conditions continue to constrain growthThe ECB's survey on bank lending showed a further tightening of business lending standards in the fourth quarter of 2024. Demand for loans remains weak, and in the first quarter of 2025, banks plan to further tighten conditions for households and companies. This confirms that the ECB's policy remains restrictive.Norway: weak retail sales increase the likelihood of a rate cutDecember retail sales in Norway decreased by 0.1% mom, which confirms weak consumer demand during the holiday season. Despite real wage growth of 2%, the economy is not yet showing a steady recovery. This increases the likelihood of an interest rate cut in March.Financial markets: reaction to macro data and corporate reportsStock indexes: growth on the background of the technology sectorOn Tuesday, global stock markets showed a recovery, which increased risk appetite through currency correlation. In the stock market, the growth was mainly in the technology sector. Investors were reviewing the impact of DeepSeek (a new technology trend), which led to a reversal after Monday's drop.• Dow Jones +0,3%• S&P 500 +0,9%• Nasdaq +2,0%• Russell 2000 +0,2%In Asia, many markets are closed due to the Lunar New Year, but Japan and several other countries are experiencing growth. Futures for the US and European indices are also trading with a slight increase.Debt markets: correction after rising yieldsYesterday, global bonds partially recovered Monday's losses, when investors went into defensive assets.• The spread between French and German bonds narrowed by 1 bps to 72 bps, which is the lowest level since October.• Italian BTP initially showed good growth, but came under pressure towards the end of the session amid an investigation into Prime Minister Giorgi Meloni.The ECB lending survey indicates the continuation of tight monetary policy, which is holding back the decline in yields.Foreign exchange market: dollar strengthens, euro stays above 1.04• EUR/USD has stabilized above 1.04, but overall the dollar continues to strengthen amid new headlines about Trump's trade policy, which promotes the introduction of universal import tariffs in excess of 2.5%.• USD/CAD is focused on the decision of the Bank of Canada, where the probability of a 25-bp rate cut remains high.• SEK is in investors' focus ahead of the Riksbank meeting, which could set a new vector for the Swedish krona.Conclusion: markets are waiting for the decisions of the Fed, the Bank of Canada and the RiksbankThe key events today are the meetings of the Federal Reserve and other central banks. The Fed's decision to leave the rate unchanged is expected, but Powell's rhetoric will be decisive for the dynamics of the dollar and global ...

EUR/USD: the initiative has moved to the European currencyThe EUR/USD pair is moving within the corrective trend, trading at 1.0419. The European currency is supported by the weakening of the US dollar and positive data on the German economy.In December, the producer price index in Germany decreased from 0.5% to -0.1% month–on-month, and amounted to 0.8% year-on-year, which was lower than the projected 1.1% and the target range of 0.5-1.5%, which allows the European Central Bank (ECB) to continue to adhere to a soft monetary policy. The January index of current economic conditions from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) improved from -93.1 to -90.4 points, although the indicator of economic sentiment decreased from 15.7 to 10.3 points, remaining above the September low of 3.6 points. ZEW President Achim Wambach noted that subdued consumer demand and weak activity in the construction industry remain the main factors of the slowdown in the German economy. The head of the Central Bank of Croatia, Boris Vujicic, added that investors' expectations of a fourfold reduction in ECB rates look justified.The pair's movement is also influenced by the dynamics of the US dollar, which is being adjusted against the background of Donald Trump's inauguration as president and his first steps in economic policy. The USDX index dropped to 107.80 as the market was disappointed by the slow fulfillment of election promises. In particular, instead of the announced increase in tariffs on Chinese imports to 40.0% from the first day of the presidency, only 10.0% are being discussed, which will take effect in two weeks.Resistance levels: 1.0460, 1.0620.Support levels: 1.0390, 1.0220.GBP/USD: market focus on employment data for November in BritainThe pound stabilized near the level of 1.2345, being near the local highs of January 9th. The GBP/USD pair maintained its upward momentum despite the publication of mixed data on the UK labor market.In December, the number of applications for unemployment benefits increased by 0.7 thousand after a decrease of 25.1 thousand in November, while analysts expected an increase of 10.3 thousand. The employment rate rose by 35.0 thousand, which is significantly lower than the previous increase of 173.0 thousand. According to November data from the Office of National Statistics, the annual increase in regular wages for the three-month period was 5.6%, exceeding the figure of the previous period (5.2%). The overall dynamics, including premiums, also accelerated to 5.6% from 5.2%. These data indicate continued price pressures in the economy. However, analysts expect the Bank of England to cut the rate again in February, although the pace of its reduction is likely to slow down. According to the OECD forecasts, the rate could reach 3.50% by 2026. Alan Taylor, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, noted that the regulator plans four rate cuts of 25 basis points by the end of 2025, which will bring it to the level of 3.75%.On Friday, January 24, the GfK Group consumer confidence index and business activity data from S&P Global for January are expected to be published. Forecasts suggest a decrease in the confidence index from -17.0 to -18.0 points. The indicator of business activity in the manufacturing sector may slightly increase from 47.0 to 47.1 points, while in the service sector it is expected to decrease from 51.1 to 50.6 points. In the United States, similar data may show a slight decrease in the index of business activity in the service sector from 56.8 to 56.6 points, while the manufacturing sector is likely to strengthen from 49.4 to 49.6 points.Resistance levels: 1.2359, 1.2400, 1.2450, 1.2500.Support levels: 1.2300, 1.2261, 1.2230, 1.2200.Silver market analysisSilver (XAG/USD) is showing steady growth, trading near the 30.81 mark. Investors are carefully assessing the first steps of Donald Trump as president of the United States, which may significantly affect the silver market.One of the key points of his election program was the introduction of high import duties on goods from China, Mexico, Canada and other countries that are the main exporters of silver ore to the United States. Currently, about 21.0% of the silver consumed in the country is mined in the United States, while 44.0% comes from Mexico and 18.0% from Canada. The proposed duties, which can reach 25.0%, will affect up to 62.0% of imports and, according to preliminary data, will enter into force on February 1. Against this background, large commodity traders are beginning to reserve metal shipments for the future. According to JPMorgan Chase & Co., since the beginning of the year, borrowing rates on gold and silver contracts have increased sevenfold, and silver reserves in Comex vaults have increased by 22.0 million ounces. The growing demand has also affected the prices of investment silver. According to the U.S. Mint, the value of the Maple Leaf coin may rise from $36.0 to $45.0 by the end of the month amid an increase in the number of orders.Resistance levels: 31.30, 33.00.Support levels: 30.30, 28.70.Crude Oil market analysisWTI Crude Oil prices showed a slight decrease in the morning session, trading around the 75.50 mark and remaining near the local lows recorded on January 10. Quotes continue the downward trend that began in the middle of last week, when they briefly approached the level of 80.00 and updated the highs of July 19.The market is under pressure from concerns about the imbalance between supply and demand caused by the inauguration of Donald Trump as president of the United States. In the first hours after the inauguration, Trump announced major changes in the country's energy policy. In particular, he lifted restrictions on the development of deposits in coastal areas imposed by the previous administration of Joe Biden, and called for an increase in production at existing fields. In addition, the president signed a declaration on the emergency situation in the energy sector, which is aimed at attracting investments in resource extraction and increasing strategic oil reserves in the United States.Additional pressure on the price of oil is exerted by information from the Kuwait National Petroleum Corporation (KPC) about the new large Al-Jley'a field located offshore the Persian Gulf. According to preliminary data, the field's reserves may reach 800 million barrels of oil and natural gas, which increases concerns about an oversaturation of the market.Resistance levels: 76.00, 77.00, 78.00, 79.33.Support levels: 75.00, 74.00, 73.00, ...

Upcoming events for the week of January 21-25, 2025This week, the economic calendar is relatively calm, and key events are scheduled for Friday, when data on the US PMI and sales in the secondary housing market will be published. These reports may give an idea of the state of the United States economy, but they are unlikely to disperse the volatility of currency pairs. At the same time, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise the interest rate from 0.25% to 0.50%, which is likely to cause significant fluctuations in the exchange rate of the yen and the Nikkei index.The main focus of the market will be on Donald Trump's first actions as president. Although the expected tightening of immigration policy is likely to have a limited impact on the market, any tariff announcements could significantly affect investor sentiment. If his comments hint at a trade war, it could raise concerns about global trade and negatively affect market stability. Traders will closely monitor his statements to determine the possible direction of the market movement.Trading Ideas this week• USD/JPY: it is recommended to consider selling opportunities, especially if the price breaks through the key support level at 155.00, which may pave the way for further decline. Special attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's decisions, as any rate changes may increase volatility.• Bitcoin: the uptrend is gaining momentum, and bullish sentiment is returning after Trump's inauguration. A possible test of the $110,000 level and above is expected as traders seek new highs. Purchases near key support levels can offer profitable entry points for those who are set for further growth.• Crude Oil: the recent truce between Israel and Gaza, as well as Trump's rise to power, are reducing tensions in the Middle East. The weakening of geopolitical risks, combined with expectations of higher production in the United States, may contribute to lower oil prices. Traders should consider selling when prices rise, focusing on lower levels in the short term.• S&P 500: the index may continue to rise this week, fueled by the beginning of the Trump presidency and his "America First" policy. It is recommended to consider buying on pullbacks, as optimism around Trump's policy may continue to support the ...

NZD/USD: market is waiting for New Zealand inflation data for Q4The NZD/USD pair is showing moderate growth, once again testing the 0.5600 level for an upward breakout. The instrument is supported by technical factors, while trading activity in the US markets is reduced due to the celebration of Martin Luther King Day. Investors are closely watching the inauguration of Donald Trump, waiting for his first decisions as president. The Republican administration previously announced its intention to significantly increase import duties, especially on goods from Canada, Mexico and China, which could provoke retaliatory measures and negatively affect global trade. At the same time, the attention of American market participants is focused on the preliminary December data on the construction sector. Despite a decrease in the number of building permits by 0.7% to 1.483 million and a decrease in the volume of new homes by 15.8% to 1.499 million, the overall picture remains positive, which reduces the likelihood of changes in the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve.The New Zealand dollar continues to receive support due to positive statistics from China published last week. In the fourth quarter of 2024, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year against the previous 4.6%, exceeding analysts' expectations of 5.0%. On a quarterly basis, the indicator increased from 1.3% to 1.6%, fully in line with forecasts. The December data also turned out to be optimistic: industrial production increased from 5.4% to 6.2%, and retail sales increased from 3.0% to 3.7%, exceeding expectations of 3.5%. Additionally, the pair was supported by an increase in the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of New Zealand, which increased from 45.2 to 45.9 points in December.Resistance levels: 0.5607, 0.5641, 0.5672, 0.5700.Support levels: 0.5571, 0.5540, 0.5511, 0.5467.USD/JPY: the Bank of Japan is preparing to set a rate at a 17-year peakThe USD/JPY pair is showing a decline, correcting to the level of 156.12 during the Asian session, after a rapid increase last week. The weakening of the US dollar is related to the expectations of the inauguration of Donald Trump, which will take place today. The new president has already announced plans to promptly fulfill key election promises, including an increase in import duties on goods from Mexico, Canada and China, which is causing concern to market participants.The Japanese yen is supported by positive macroeconomic statistics. The volume of orders for engineering products increased by 10.3% year-on-year in November, accelerating from the previous 5.6%. On a monthly basis, the growth was 3.4%, exceeding analysts' expectations of a decrease of 0.4%. However, industrial production decreased by 2.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, which nevertheless turned out to be better than previous values. The index of production capacity utilization decreased by 1.9% after October's 2.6% increase, while the index of activity in the service sector decreased by 0.3% after an increase of 0.1%. In the United States, December statistics on industrial production showed an increase of 0.9%, which significantly exceeded market expectations of 0.3%.On Friday, January 24, the Bank of Japan will hold a monetary policy meeting, at which it is expected to raise the interest rate from 0.25% to 0.50%, the highest level since 2008. Experts believe that the regulator may increase the rate to 1.00% in the future, which corresponds to a level that does not cause overheating of the economy. The acceleration of wage growth should support inflation at 2.0%, which will allow maintaining a tight monetary policy. The consumer price index has already exceeded the regulator's target for almost three years, and the weakness of the yen contributes to high import costs. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is likely to emphasize his willingness to continue policy adjustments if the Trump administration's moves do not lead to market destabilization. Inflation data will also be released on Friday.: The core index, which excludes fresh food prices, is projected to accelerate from 2.7% to 3.0%.Resistance levels: 156.50, 157.50, 158.18, 159.00.Support levels: 155.50, 154.96, 154.50, 153.87.Gold market analysisGold is showing moderate growth, recovering from the decline recorded at the end of last week, when quotes moved away from local highs reached on December 12, 2024. The instrument is testing the 2705.00 level, trying to gain a foothold above this mark.Today, analysts' main attention is focused on the inauguration of US President Donald Trump, who is expected to make key decisions in the first hours after the ceremony. One of the most likely steps is the introduction of increased import duties on most goods entering the United States, especially from countries such as Canada, Mexico and China. These measures could trigger disruption of global supply chains if the affected countries impose retaliatory sanctions. Such actions may force the US Federal Reserve to maintain a tighter monetary policy. This year, the market expects the regulator to make only two interest rate adjustments of -25 basis points or less, with the first reduction expected to take place only in the second half of the year.Additional support for the US currency was provided by macroeconomic data released on Friday. In December, industrial production increased by 0.9% after an increase of 0.2% a month earlier, exceeding expectations of 0.3%. Capacity utilization increased from 77.0% to 77.6%. In addition, the construction sector showed impressive results: the volume of house construction started increased by 15.8% month-on-month, rising from 1,294 million to 1,499 million units, which significantly exceeded the projected 1,320 million.Resistance levels: 2724.70, 2740.53, 2760.00, 2775.00.Support levels: 2700.00, 2685.56, 2670.00, 2655.00.Crude Oil market analysisThis week, WTI Crude Oil prices approached the significant mark of $ 77.00 per barrel. The negative dynamics is explained by the strengthening of the US dollar and expectations related to the beginning of Donald Trump's second presidential term. In his first days in office, he is expected to present initiatives aimed at increasing oil production and allowing the development of fields in coastal areas, which may affect the overall balance in the market.Meanwhile, a new report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts a decline in oil prices in the coming years. According to analysts, in 2025, prices for "black gold" may drop to $ 69.76 per barrel, and in 2026 to $ 67.96, which is significantly lower than the October forecast of $ 72.84 for the current year. The IMF experts note that the market has undergone significant changes: a slowdown in demand from China and an increase in supply from non-OPEC countries are putting pressure on the value of the asset.According to the latest report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the number of net speculative positions in oil increased from 279.6 thousand to 306.3 thousand over the week, which is the highest since April, indicating increased trader activity.Resistance levels: 79.00, 82.40.Support levels: 75.90, ...

EUR/USD: the pair is moving within the 1.0350–1.0000 channelThe quotes of the EUR/USD pair are in the correction phase, trading around the 1.0305 mark against the background of the weakening of the US currency. After a poor start to the year, the euro is regaining its position, receiving support from the publication of macroeconomic data.Today, key eurozone countries continue to provide information on inflation. In December, the consumer price index in France was 1.3%, remaining at the level of the previous month and coinciding with analysts' expectations. In Spain, inflation accelerated to 2.8% from the previous 2.4%. The consolidated indicator for the eurozone is projected to grow by 0.4% month-on-month and reach 2.4% year-on-year, exceeding the November level of 2.2%. At the same time, the base index, which excludes the cost of food and energy resources, is likely to be fixed at 0.5%. Increased inflationary pressures may adjust the policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), forcing it to reconsider plans to lower interest rates or slow down the pace of their reduction.Support levels: 1.0230, 1.0030.Resistance levels: 1.0350, 1.0530.NZD/USD: New Zealand and the UAE have signed a partnership agreementThe New Zealand dollar is aiming to stay above the 0.5600 level during Asian trading on January 15. The national currency is supported by statistics on the business confidence index provided by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER). According to the report, the indicator for the fourth quarter increased by 16.0%, offsetting the previous decrease by -1.0%.Earlier, the strengthening of the New Zealand currency was driven by positive data from the construction sector and China's foreign trade. The number of building permits in New Zealand increased by 5.3%, which fully offset the 5.2% decrease a month earlier. Meanwhile, exports from China grew by 10.7% year-on-year after the previous growth of 6.7%, significantly exceeding analysts' forecasts of 7.3%. Imports increased by 1.0% after falling by 3.9%, which contributed to an increase in the trade surplus from $97.44 billion to $104.84 billion, against expectations of $99.8 billion.In addition, representatives of New Zealand and the UAE signed a comprehensive economic partnership agreement aimed at increasing trade and investment flows. According to forecasts, the deal will allow to reach a trading volume of 5.0 billion dollars by 2032, providing an annual average of 1.5 billion dollars. At the same time, in the first nine months of last year, the non-oil trade turnover between the two countries amounted to 642.0 million dollars, which is 8.0% higher than the same period in 2023.Resistance levels: 0.5607, 0.5641, 0.5672, 0.5700.Support levels: 0.5571, 0.5540, 0.5511, 0.5467.USDX: dollar loses ground ahead of inflation reportThe US dollar index (USDX) shows mixed sentiment, being near the 109.00 mark and testing it for a breakdown down. Yesterday, the index showed a moderate decline, continuing to adjust from the highs reached earlier in the week. The main driver of the "bearish" dynamics was weak statistics from the United States, which increased doubts about today's inflation data and lowered expectations of new changes in the Fed's monetary policy in 2025. In particular, the producer price index for the month fell from 0.4% to 0.2%, although it was predicted to remain at the same level, and year-on-year the indicator increased from 3.0% to 3.3%, but was lower than the expected 3.5%. At the same time, the base value decreased to 0.0% from the previous 0.2%, maintaining the annual dynamics at 3.5%.Forecasts for consumer inflation suggest that the monthly rate will increase from 0.3% to 0.4%, and the annual rate from 2.7% to 2.9%, while the base value is likely to remain between 0.3% and 3.3%. Such data may signal a slowdown in the pace of the Fed's dovish policy. Central forecasts with a 97.3% probability assume that the interest rate will remain in the current range of 4.25%-4.50%, especially given Donald Trump's policy of reforming import duties, reducing the tax burden and tightening immigration rules, which may increase inflationary pressures.In addition, the monthly economic review of the US Federal Reserve "Beige Book" will be released today at 21:00 (GMT+2). The document covers 12 federal districts, providing up-to-date information on the state of industry, agriculture, corporate and consumer spending, the real estate market and other sectors of the economy.Resistance levels: 109.50, 109.97, 110.40, 111.00.Support levels: 109.00, 108.50, 108.00, 107.50.Crude Oil market analysisBrent Crude Oil prices continue to move within the framework of the local uptrend, remaining above $ 79.0 per barrel during the Asian session. The market is gradually recovering, but participants remain concerned about the possible consequences of new US sanctions that could affect Russian oil supplies to China and India, as well as the overall supply level on the global energy market.The quotes support the latest forecasts of the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy (EIA), according to which global oil production could reach 104.36 million barrels per day in 2025 and increase to 105.89 million barrels in 2026. At the same time, global demand is expected to decrease to 104.1 million barrels per day in 2025 and to 105.15 million in 2026, which will create an oversupply of 260 thousand barrels and 740 thousand barrels, respectively. This will be in contrast to the deficit of 170,000 barrels recorded in 2024. According to experts, the main increase in production is expected in non-OPEC+ countries such as the United States, Canada, Brazil and Guyana.Support levels: 78.30, 74.80.Resistance levels: 80.70, ...

GBP/USD: pound dominates, dollar loses groundThe quotes of the GBP/USD pair continue to strengthen, reaching the level of 1.2533, against the background of the weakening of the US currency.S&P Global business activity data for December supported the pound, despite the fact that the figures are still far from forecasts. The index of business activity in the UK services sector increased from 50.8 to 51.1 points, which pushed the composite indicator to 50.4 points. This indicates continued growth, even despite the Labor government's plans to raise taxes. In response to the increasing pressure, businesses are preparing to raise prices and reduce investments. An additional positive factor was the improvement in retail sales: the index calculated by the British Retail Consortium (BRC) showed an increase from -3.4% to 3.1%. Such dynamics has not been observed since March 2024, when the indicator reached 3.2%.The US currency, on the contrary, showed a significant decline, falling to the level of 108.1 in the USDX index. Analysts' expectations for an improvement in activity in key sectors of the US economy have not been met. The index of business activity in the service sector rose from 56.1 to 56.8 points, but was lower than the projected 58.5. The composite indicator adjusted from 54.9 to 55.4 points instead of the expected 56.6. A slowdown in the national economy may prompt the US Federal Reserve to temporarily freeze monetary policy changes. This is confirmed by CME Group FedWatch data: the probability of maintaining the current interest rate increased from 88.6% to 92.5%.Support levels: 1.2460, 1.2300.Resistance levels: 1.2580, 1.2770.USD/CHF: monetary policy supports the pair's growthThe USD/CHF pair maintains an upward trajectory despite the recent correction. Last week, the quotes reached a nine-month peak at 0.9135, but then retreated to 0.9033 (the Murray level [2/8]). The decline is expected to be temporary, as monetary factors continue to support the pair's growth in the medium term.The Swiss National Bank is likely to maintain a dovish approach this year, lowering borrowing costs to offset a sharp slowdown in inflation, which is putting pressure on the domestic economy. According to December data, the annual consumer price index decreased from 0.7% to 0.6%, remaining below the target range of 2.0%, which reinforces the need for further easing. The head of the Swiss regulator, Martin Schlegel, previously admitted the possibility of negative interest rates, although he stressed that this was not the main strategy.At the same time, the US Federal Reserve is demonstrating a more restrained approach to changing monetary parameters, given the growing inflationary risks associated with the tax and trade policies of the administration of President-elect Donald Trump. At the December meeting, officials cut the forecast for the number of interest rate cuts this year to two instead of four. Fed officials such as Adriana Coogler and Mary Daly point to the need to continue fighting inflation, which may slow down the pace of policy easing, strengthening the position of the US dollar.Resistance levels: 0.9155, 0.9277, 0.93 99.Support levels: 0.8970, 0.8789.USD/CAD: resignation of Canadian Prime Minister shocks marketsThe USD/CAD exchange rate continues to decline, breaking the support level of 1.4350, which signals a possible further deepening of the downtrend. The political instability in Canada is in the focus of market participants' attention.Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced his intention to leave office after the election of a new leader of the Liberal Party, which is accompanied by a temporary suspension of parliament. This decision came shortly after a meeting with US President-elect Donald Trump, who criticized the Canadian authorities for the increase in illegal migration and smuggling, as well as for the significant trade imbalance. Trump noted that the trade deficit with Canada is about $ 100 billion, and warned of the possible imposition of duties of 25% on exports if the situation does not change by his inauguration on January 20.Additional pressure on the pair's exchange rate is exerted by the weakness of the US dollar caused by the publication of macroeconomic statistics. The index of business activity in the services sector, calculated by S&P Global, increased from 56.1 to 56.8 points in December, but turned out to be significantly lower than analysts' forecasts (58.5 points). The composite index also showed a more modest increase, from 54.9 to 55.4 points, which is worse than the expected level of 56.6 points. In addition, the volume of industrial orders decreased by 0.4% in November, confirming the continuing difficulties in the American economy.Resistance levels: 1.4466, 1.4550, 1.4665.Support levels: 1.4150, 1.3950.Crude Oil market analysisIn Asian trading, Brent crude oil continues to adjust within the framework of the local uptrend, holding above the level of 76.0 dollars per barrel.Prices were supported by news about the increase in selling prices for energy resources with February deliveries to customers from Asia, Northern Europe and the Mediterranean. In particular, the cost of KSA's flagship brand Arab Light increased by 0.6 dollars for Asian customers and by 1.3 dollars for customers in Europe. These changes followed OPEC+'s decision to extend the voluntary reduction in oil production until the end of March 2025, taking into account changes in energy supplies to Asia from Russia and Iran amid sanctions.The market was also influenced by the statement of the US President-elect Donald Trump about his intention to lift the current ban on the development of oil fields in coastal areas. Trump has designated this decision, which affects an area of 625 million acres, as one of the key priorities of the first days of his presidency. Investors are taking a wait-and-see attitude, assessing the possible consequences of these initiatives.Support levels: 75.40, 72.20.Resistance levels: 77.30, ...

EUR/USD: bearish trend remains in forceThe EUR/USD pair is showing a moderate decline during Asian trading, continuing to develop the downward momentum formed earlier: quotes are testing the 1.0400 level again, declining from local highs on December 18. The activity of market participants and transaction volumes are gradually weakening, which is associated with the approach of the Christmas and New Year holidays, against which investors are taking a wait-and-see attitude.Pressure on the euro remains due to the current monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) and recent comments by the head of the regulator, Christine Lagarde, in an interview with the Financial Times. She expressed concern about the continued rise in prices in the service sector, which remains at around 4.0%. Lagarde also spoke out against possible EU retaliatory measures to impose additional duties from the United States, pointing to their potential negative effect on households and businesses. Against the background of such statements, market participants are reviewing expectations for the rate of interest rate cuts in 2025, but questions about the pace of economic recovery remain open. In December, the ECB cut its key interest rate again by 25 basis points. November inflation accelerated from 2.0% to 2.3%, and forecasts suggest it will rise to 2.4% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025, followed by a decline to 1.9% in 2026, which is below the target level. Additionally, the ECB confirmed its intention to continue reducing its bond portfolio under the PEPP program by 7.5 billion euros per month.Resistance levels: 1.0400, 1.0450, 1.0500, 1.0554.Support levels: 1.0350, 1.0300, 1.0253, 1.0200.GBP/USD: the pair is moving down, reflecting the medium-term bearish dynamicsIn December, the GBP/USD pair resumed its downward movement within the framework of a medium-term downtrend, testing the level of 1.2490, corresponding to a 50.0% Fibonacci retracement. The pressure on the pound increased after the release of macroeconomic data, which reflected a slowdown in economic activity in the UK.In particular, the gross domestic product (GDP) did not change in the third quarter, contrary to analysts' expectations, which assumed an increase of 0.1%. Industrial production also decreased by 0.7% in October, and the aggregate business activity index fell to 50.5 points, due to business concerns about the growing tax burden initiated by the Labor government. As a result, the country's economy may enter a state of technical recession. At the same time, inflation remains at a high level: in November, the consumer price index was 2.6%, and the base index rose to 3.5%. In such a situation, the Bank of England is unable to continue its soft monetary policy, which limits the incentives for economic recovery and increases pressure on the British currency.Resistance levels: 1.2695, 1.2939, 1.3061.Support levels: 1.2490, 1.2300, 1.2095.USD/CHF: Swiss authorities' investigation reveals reasons for Credit Suisse collapseThe USD/CHF pair is showing a steady upward trend in the morning, developing the momentum that began the day before, and is striving to overcome the 0.8990 level. Despite the low activity in the market ahead of the Christmas holidays, the main attention of bidders is focused on the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting, where interest rate changes were discussed.Last week, Switzerland presented statistics on foreign economic activity: exports in November decreased from 27.83 billion to 23.68 billion francs, imports — from 19.80 billion to 18.26 billion francs, which led to a decrease in the trade surplus from 8.025 billion to 5.424 billion francs. On Friday, the bankruptcy report of Credit Suisse Group AG, prepared by the parliamentary commission, was published. The 569-page document contains 30 recommendations for preventing similar crises in the future. Among the proposals: expanding the powers of FINMA, tightening capital requirements for systemically important banks, and introducing a resident qualification for members of the board of directors. The Committee noted that the mistakes of the Credit Suisse management were the key cause of the crisis: from 2010 to 2022, top managers were paid 39.8 billion francs in bonuses, despite cumulative losses of 33.7 billion francs. Additionally, it is indicated that the regulator unreasonably provided capital allowances in 2017, which prevented the timely identification of the bank's financial problems. The Government is invited to consider measures aimed at preventing similar situations in the future.Resistance levels: 0.9000, 0.9037, 0.9100, 0.91 30.Support levels: 0.8957, 0.8929, 0.8900, 0.8865.Crude Oil market analysisBrent Crude Oil prices are trading near the level of 72.00, showing sideways dynamics against the background of changes in global demand for energy resources.According to the latest report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), India will become the leader in hydrocarbon consumption in 2024, overtaking China. Forecasts show that India could reach 220,000 barrels per day next year, increasing it to 330,000 barrels per day in 2025. At the same time, China, against the background of an accelerated transition to renewable energy sources, will reduce the growth rate of demand to 90 thousand and 250 thousand barrels per day for the same periods. If in 2023 China accounted for up to 70% of global oil demand, then in 2024 the figure may fall to 20%, while India's share will grow to 25%. Already this year, India has taken a leading position in the supply of petroleum products to the EU, surpassing even the United States.Resistance levels: 73.50, 77.00.Support levels: 71.60, ...

OPEC+ is markedly reducing oil production - in fact, the exporting countries will pump about 1 million barrels less per day. We have written earlier on why this is so.As a result, supply at the market has become lower, so prices have gone up and are approaching $100 per barrel again.What will the U.S. do after the OPEC+ statement?The coming energy crisis and the high inflation it causes are scaring the whole world, but it's the States that are worried the most right now:expensive oil means expensive fuel;it's causing prices of almost all commodities to rise;inflation is going up - the Fed keeps tightening policy;high key interest rates are pushing the U.S. closer to recession;in addition, high fuel prices can cause social discontent.To prevent this, the U.S. is trying to influence the largest oil producers and keep prices down. Otherwise, the Democrats will most likely not win the congressional elections. They are due in a month.The U.S. started to prepare in advance: President Biden flew to Saudi Arabia this summer and persuaded the U.S. to bring down oil prices. But it did not work out very well: OPEC acts in its own way and does not want to listen to Americans. As a result, the failed negotiations with the Saudis have further diminished the credibility of Biden and the Democrats' ability to influence oil, inflation and economic stability in the United States.However, the Biden administration is not giving up; they have a few more options - rather radical ones - on how to lower oil prices.Additional Oil ReleaseThe safest, though least effective, option is to further draw oil from strategic U.S. storage facilities. In response to OPEC+'s decision to cut production, Biden announced that the U.S. would release 10 million barrels of oil, even as storage reserves are depleted.That would be all well and good, but the announcement had little or no effect on oil prices, especially compared to the previous similar decision to release 180 million barrels to the market. No wonder: the volumes are not comparable.In addition, since U.S. storage reserves are running out, there is a risk that they will not be enough for a rainy day: in case of sharp reductions in domestic production (for example, during hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico) or imports (if OPEC+ countries reduce exports).Reducing military aid to the ArabsDemocrats have drafted a "Tense Partnership" bill in response to OPEC+ and specifically the alliance's leaders, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. They are accused of "a hostile act against the United States" and "siding with Russia in the conflict with Ukraine."As revenge, the U.S. could withdraw its troops from these countries and stop supplying weapons and other military aid to fight neighboring states and terrorists. This includes protecting oil infrastructure from attack.This option also has disadvantages: without U.S. military support in these countries, there could be problems that would inevitably affect the global oil supply. After all, if military actions or terrorist attacks affect the oil fields or storage facilities of Saudi Aramco, oil will cost even more, and such attacks occur quite often.So even if the Saudis and the UAE will not reduce exports in response to the withdrawal of troops and reduction of arms supply, there is a good chance that sooner or later the fighting will make prices go up.In addition, Saudi Arabia has already planned to prepare for a possible conflict with the United States. For example, in the spring the Saudis said they were going to explore ways to move away from the petrodollar - that is, not to use bucks in the black gold trade. In this case, the demand for the dollar could fall dramatically, especially if other oil-exporting countries do the same.NOPEC: Conflict with OPEC+Amid disagreements with OPEC, the U.S. may return to the "oil production and export cartel law," NOPEC, to have more leverage on oil exporters.In this case, U.S. courts will be able to consider antitrust suits against OPEC+ and in general against countries involved in cartel collusion in the oil market. Under the decision of their own courts, the U.S. will be able to impose sanctions, confiscate property of these countries and put pressure on them in other ways. At the same time, the U.S. itself will indicate what is legal and what is not, thus assessing any actions of the countries that regulate oil production and prices.This option also has a disadvantage: sanctions on exporters would also hit the U.S. itself. If oil prices become lower, the U.S. oil industry will also be hard hit: domestic production will decrease and it will have to import more. And since the market is competitive, and the U.S. in this case will be "enemies of OPEC +", they will have to buy oil more expensive.So, even if the U.S. takes a drastic step - provoking a conflict with Saudi Arabia or the UAE, or starting a sanctions war with OPEC+ - all this will have a negative impact on themselves.Can't sanctions be lifted on Venezuela?As we can see, the U.S. has almost no normal options left to influence the oil market. Nevertheless, the U.S. says it is not going to remove sanctions from Venezuela yet, despite the fact that this would help get more oil on the market and lower oil prices. We may see some new rhetoric in this regard, but no change for now.The Iran deal has also been stalled so far: there is no news or movement on it. Although it is possible that disagreements with the Saudis may attract the U.S. to support Iran, because these are the two sides of the Arab conflict.On the one hand, Iranian oil would help to increase supply, but there is a nuance here as well: the reserves in this country are not grandiose, moreover, most of the oil is already exported in circumvention of sanctions.So what to do with Brent and WTI crude oil prices in 2022?If we discard all of the above options, then all we have to do is sit back and watch oil go up in price. The outlook is also bad: even if the world starts a recession and the demand for oil decreases, OPEC+ is already reducing production and adjusting to negative expectations, and also the supply from Russia may decrease if the embargo comes into force.And if that's the case, U.S. inflation will be high. And given the strong labor market, the Fed may raise the rate even more than 1.25% by the end of the year, and it is not certain that it will slow down next year as well. If rates remain high for a long time, the risk of recession in the U.S. is very high, and stocks and cryptocurrencies will have no fuel for growth. As a result, the economy will have a hard time: liquidity is scarce.If the U.S. starts to act sharply, the dollar is at risk: the "oil" countries can give it up to reduce dependence on the United States. But if the U.S. does nothing, tightening Fed policy will keep the dollar very strong - though at the cost of high inflation and recession. If you are interested in WTI analytics, we recommend you to visit the analytics page, where you can find the latest analytics on Forex from top traders from all over the world. These analytics will be useful both for beginners and professional traders. The Forex signals service makes it much easier for beginners to make their first steps in trading on the financial markets. The latest WTI forecasts and signals contain support and resistance levels, as well as stop-loss ...

In 2019, the "sub-sanctioned" Iran began to increase oil supplies in circumvention of sanctions. Mostly tankers went to China and the Mediterranean: Syria and Turkey. And by the beginning of 2022, the fleet for transporting sanctioned Iranian and Venezuelan oil had tripled. It accounted for approximately 400 million barrels per year. And such a "ghost armada" successfully undermines the business of transport companies.Why did Iranian tankers get such a name?Last year, The Mail on Sunday reported: 123 Iranian vessels circumvent sanctions on oil trade. They change their location to GPS and create the appearance that they are anchored at sea, but at this time they are loading/unloading at the port. They also actively forge documents, use flags of different countries, disable identification systems and use front companies. Oil is often loaded onto several vessels and mixed before reaching its destination. This is also the case with "toxic" Russian oil.At the same time, Iran has a whole "underground" financial system for trade bypassing sanctions, writes the WSJ. It includes accounts in foreign banks, intermediary companies outside the country and firms that coordinate prohibited trade. The annual turnover is estimated at tens of billions of dollars.And Iranian banks attract affiliated firms to manage trade under sanctions. They register "daughters" outside the country, become trusted for Iranian traders, and then trade with foreign buyers of Iranian oil in foreign currency through accounts in foreign banks.Will the "Iranian Armada" help Russia?She is already helping her to circumvent sanctions, writes the Daily Mail. The international non-profit organization United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) accuses the Iranian navy of cooperating with Russian oil companies. Allegedly, Russian oilmen are using "Tehran's black market vessels" to circumvent the export ban. And the US, the EU and the UK are even calling for the formation of a team of "ghostbusters".At least 5 Iranian "ghost armadas" are transporting oil from Russia to China and India, according to UANI. And recently, the WSJ reported that Zamanoil from the UAE was linking Iranian and Russian oil workers. The US Treasury accused her of working with the Russian government and Rosneft on the supply of Iranian oil to Europe.However, at the end of March, Iran denied a "secret offer from Russia" to help it circumvent sanctions in exchange for support in concluding a nuclear deal. And in May, he noted that he could not be a competitor of Russia in the global oil and gas market. The country has its own regular customers, and Iran sells the maximum amount of oil.So officially, Iran does not seem to be planning to use its "army of ghosts" to help for the benefit of Russia, despite the fact that these countries have "converged" before. But then there was no question of an embargo on Russian oil and there was no ban on ship insurance. In the new reality, the actions of the "ghost armada" are quite difficult to ...

The year 2022 on world markets will largely be determined by the tightening of monetary policy in the United States, and the first week of the new year confirmed this. The minutes of the Fed's December meeting published last week showed a significant tightening of the position of the regulator's representatives – Fed members believe that the rate can be raised as early as March, and also see a faster reduction in the balance sheet as appropriate. Representatives of the regulator believe that the current economic conditions are already in many ways conducive to tightening the labor market, some even noted the recovery of the labor market already sufficient for such actions, although the majority still expects further improvement in the labor situation. Against this background, it is worth noting the publication of December labor data in the United States, which came out ambiguous. On the one hand, employment in December increased by only 200 thousand. The Bloomberg consensus forecast assumed an employment growth of 450 thousand, and the actual growth rate of the indicator was the lowest since the beginning of 2021. Nevertheless, in many respects such weak employment growth is explained by seasonal adjustment, and the unemployment rate in December fell more than expected. Thus, the indicator has updated the next lows since the beginning of the pandemic, dropping to 3.90% against the expected 4.10%. The unemployment rate continues to approach a historic low of 3.40%, and labor statistics have further increased fears in the market of an imminent tightening of the PREP in the United States. As a result, on Friday, the yields of ten-year US treasuries at the moment exceeded 1.80% per annum - the maximum since the beginning of the pandemic. Today they have returned to these levels again.This week, the dynamics in the market will continue to be determined by expectations for the actions of regulators - investors will follow the statements of representatives of the Fed and the ECB, as well as the publication of price data in the United States for December. Statistics published last week showed an increase in inflation in the EU to 5.00% YoY. As a result, the topics of price growth in December updated the historical maximum, while analysts expected a slight slowdown in price growth. The situation on the supply side also has high inflation in the United States. The December business activity indices indicated a slight easing of logistical problems, however, the further deterioration of the epidemiological situation again intensified disruptions in logistics chains, which does not lead to a significant slowdown in price growth. The FAO World Food Price index fell in December for the first time since July, but food inflation remains at elevated levels. Against this background, US inflation data is likely to continue to bring the Fed rate hike closer, intensifying the negative in the markets.The main event for the oil market in early 2022 was the OPEC+ meeting. However, as expected, it was decided to stick to the current plan to increase production. Nevertheless, the cartel lowered its forecasts for a surplus in the oil market, which allowed Brent crude futures to exceed the level of $80/bbl. Moreover, against the background of interruptions in the supply of black gold from Kazakhstan and Libya, quotations were close to $83/bbl. However, at the end of the week they declined from these levels, today Brent futures are growing by 0.35% and are trading around $82.05/bbl. The main negative for oil this week may be related to the potential strengthening of the dollar amid expectations of a tightening of the PREP in the United States. However, in the absence of a significant strengthening of the dollar, Brent futures may still exceed the levels of $83/bbl– - the quotes may be supported by another weekly decline in oil ...

Oil is getting more expensive on Friday morning. By 8.25 GMT, the price of a barrel of Brent oil rose to 70 dollars 89 cents, or 1.75%. The price of a barrel of WTI oil rose to 67 dollars 71 cents or 1.22%. According to the results of trading on Thursday, these oil standards rose by 1.2% and 1.4%, respectively. Investors evaluate the results of the last meeting of the countries participating in the OPEC+ agreement. Some market participants expected that the alliance would decide to reduce the volume of oil production. However, OPEC+ retained the current parameters of the deal. This means that the alliance will continue to increase the volume of raw material production by 400,000 b/s every month. At the same time, the participants of the meeting stated that they could make a different decision on the volume of production at any time. Everything will depend on the situation on the oil market and in the global economy. They noted the persistence of uncertainty. It intensified after the appearance of the next coronavirus strain omicron. Investors liked the alliance's statement about the possible holding of an extraordinary meeting, if the situation requires ...

In the last month of summer, the oil exchange rate is likely to show a correctionIn August, the oil price depends on several important factors - first of all, the recovery of the market in the United States and the new flare-up of the conflict in the Middle East. The Israeli authorities have accused Iran of attacking an oil tanker, and the United States and Great Britain have already promised support to Israel. Against this background, the oil exchange rate moved to growth after a short correction, but it is not known how long this recovery growth will be. We offer a traditional analysis of oil prices.Reducing unemployment in the United StatesIn many ways, the positive movement on the US stock markets has a positive effect on the oil exchange rate: the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 indices traditionally update historical highs. According to data from the US Department of Labor, the number of applications for unemployment benefits has fallen sharply.During the last week of July, only 385 thousand such appeals were registered, and the total number of recipients of benefits amounted to 3 million people. However, the effect of positive news from the US markets has already been played out, and the dynamics of the oil exchange rate will need new incentives to continue growth.At the same time, macroeconomic statistics from the United States show an increase in the commodity deficit, which increased from $71 billion in May to $75.7 billion in June. This was largely due to a 2.1% increase in imports compared to the previous month, although exports increased by only 0.6%. This is largely due to a reduction in supplies, which in turn restricts production within the United States.There are already reports about how the spread of a new strain of coronavirus can affect the American economy. In particular, as the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Neil Kashkari, said, the new strain may slow down the recovery of the labor market. This completely contradicts the recent statement by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who assured analysts that the delta strain is not a risk to the American economy.Positive statistics on the labor market may force the Fed to change its approach to monetary policy and increase rates, as well as curtail the quantitative easing program. First of all, this will lead to a strengthening of the dollar, which in turn will affect the commodities denominated in the US currency. In this case, the oil exchange rate will be influenced by another important negative factor. Moreover, investors will begin to withdraw resources from risky assets, and then the Russian and Chinese stock markets will suffer.Already half of the US states have stopped paying increased unemployment benefits, which on the one hand indicates that there is no need for additional incentives, and on the other hand may mean an increase in demand for fuel. However, in any case, the statistics on the labor market in the United States may not be as positive as it may seem at first glance - the number of jobs outside agriculture, on the contrary, turned out to be less than a year earlier. First of all, this was caused by a large number of dismissals in the field of higher education.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its functionsThe influence of China and RussiaAn increase in oil purchases from China can potentially act as a new incentive for the hydrocarbon market. So, China may soon announce an increase in quotas for the purchase of hydrocarbons. Moreover, it is expected that more oil will be purchased not only by small refineries from China, but also by large Chinese companies.The main seller of oil on the Chinese market is the Arab countries from the Persian Gulf, so first, most likely, prices for Dubai grade oil will rise sharply, and other grades, including the benchmark Brent, will follow it. However, these expectations are contradicted by the increase in the incidence of coronavirus in China - due to lockdowns and restrictive measures, traffic on some of the most important logistics routes is reduced.Moreover, the Chinese authorities have decided to restrict air and rail travel around the country. In the Asian region, the number of infected people has been growing recently. In particular, in Thailand, even new restrictive measures did not help to stop the increase in new cases. Similarly, in Sydney, Australia, the increase in new cases has reached a historic high, and the authorities expect the situation to worsen further.In turn, Russian oil companies are trying to use the OPEC+ deal to get more favorable working conditions inside the country. In particular, they suggested that the government reduce the tax burden on the industry, which in turn will help start the development of hard-to-reach oil. To do this, they proposed to create two new groups of deposits, for which they proposed to reset the tax on mineral extraction.The first group includes areas with the volume of initial reserves of less than 65 million tons and the degree of depletion of less than 1%. The second group includes the deposits of ultra-viscous oil in the Komi Republic. Moreover, the oil companies decided to stimulate the exploration of hard-to-recover reserves. To do this, it is proposed to use a traditional set of tools - tax deductions and reduction of payments for the mineral extraction tax. However, so far the Ministry of Finance is against the initiative, which is not eager to help oil companies and does not plan to change the taxation of the industry until 2023-2024, until the end of the OPEC+ agreement.At the same time, the further deterioration of the pandemic situation in the world may become a deterrent to the growth of oil prices. Recently, in order to combat the spread of a new delta strain of coronavirus, an increasing number of countries have been strengthening restrictive measures on the mobility of the population. Investors are particularly concerned about the situation in China, where domestic air and rail traffic was limited in order to localize outbreaks of the disease, which directly affects the oil exchange rate.Oil price analysisOil futures moved into the negative zone, without reaching the goals of a short-term rebound. These levels are located near the $73.50 and $71.50 marks, which corresponds to the average Bollinger bands on the daily chart. In general, the oil exchange rate is affected by downward pressure, and analysts are increasingly inclined to believe that a correction may occur in the hydrocarbon market in the near future. The support lines are located near the previous lows - around $70.20 and $67.50, according to the technical analysis of oil prices.Read more: What are futures: types, features, advantages and risksIn the first week of August, the dynamics of the oil exchange rate showed a failure-from about $75 to $70 literally from August 2 to 5. The reason for the increase is quite banal - the growth of fuel reserves in the American market, which indicates a decrease in economic activity. According to official data, inventories increased by 3.6 million barrels, while a decrease of 3.9 million barrels was expected. Moreover, analysts are influenced by data on the spread of a new strain of coronavirus in China, the United States and Japan, as well as the associated expectations of new restrictions.The most important factor that positively affects the dynamics of the oil exchange rate remains the growth of tensions in the Middle East. The conflict between Israel on the one hand and Iran and Lebanon on the other threatens the rapid exit of hydrocarbons from the Islamic Republic to foreign markets, as well as generally increases the uncertainty of oil transportation from the Middle East. As a result, literally in one day on August 5, the oil exchange rate recovered to $71 per barrel, and the next day it was already testing the level of $72 per barrel.A new conflict in the Middle East may become a significant factor that is likely to affect the oil price in August. According to Israeli Defense Minister Beni Gantz, his country is ready to start a war against Iran because of a drone strike on an oil tanker. We are talking about the attack on the Mercer Street oil tanker.Officially, the ship belongs to Japan, sails under the flag of Liberia, but it is operated by the Israeli company Zodiac Maritime. According to Gantz, the Islamic Republic has no more than two and a half months to come close to producing nuclear weapons. In this context, the attack on an Israeli tanker becomes part of a large-scale confrontation in the region. If the tension increases, the oil exchange rate may receive additional support.In turn, Israel has already received assistance from its traditional allies - the United States and Great Britain. As British Prime Minister Boris Johnson hastened to say, " Iran must answer for the consequences." In turn, the representative of the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Saeed Khatibzadeh, said that the Islamic Republic is ready to protect its security and national interests. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken also joined the diplomatic skirmish, saying that Tehran was undoubtedly behind the attack, and the allies would prepare a "collective response" to this attack.Thus, two multidirectional factors: the strengthening of anti-bullying measures and the growing conflict in the Middle East are pushing the trajectory of the oil exchange rate in different directions. If the first factor leads to a reduction in demand, the second one seriously reduces the supply of oil - it is the Middle East conflicts that traditionally push the cost of hydrocarbons up. According to most analysts, the combination of two multidirectional factors can cause the oil exchange rate to fluctuate in a wide range from $68 to $75 per Brent, depending on the news background.Read more: Are the minutes of the Federal Reserve meetings useful for ...

At the morning trading on Tuesday, oil prices are declining. By 7.42 GMT, Brent oil fell to 72 dollars 85 cents per barrel, or by 0.05% compared to the closing price of trading the day before. The price of WTI oil fell to 71 dollars 22 cents per barrel, or 0.06%. Pressure on oil prices is exerted by information about the deterioration of the epidemiological situation in Asian countries. In this region, there is an increase in the number of infections with a new strain of coronavirus infection "delta". The authorities of a number of Asian countries were forced to tighten restrictive measures, including on movement. Analysts at Commonwealth Bank Of Australia note that the spread of the delta strain around the world will become a serious threat to the recovery of oil demand. Mobility restrictions are already being observed in some parts of the Asian region. This is the reason for the fall in oil demand. More than 60% of the world's oil consumption is accounted for by ...

Oil quotations are rising amid expectations of a further recovery in demand. International Energy Agency forecasts oil demand to be higher than before the pandemic by the end of 2022.The price of Brent crude futures on the ICE London exchange has surpassed $73 in August, trading data shows. It peaked at $73.07 during the trading session - the last time Brent traded above $73 a barrel was on 20 May 2019.WTI Texas Intermediate crude futures are up 1.22% to $71.15 in July.The International Energy Agency (IEA) today published The IEA Oil Market Report (OMR), which said that oil demand will return to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2022. At the same time, the organization kept the demand forecast for 2021 at 5.4 million barrels per day.Read more: The International Energy Agency (IEA) - brief history and activityOPEC+ member countries will have reserves of around 6.9m bpd between May and July. And if sanctions on Iran are lifted, market supply would increase by 1.4m bpd in the short term.The price of Brent crude oil has been in an uptrend since May 21. During this period it rose from $64.5 to $73, and there were only two trading sessions which closed lower.The IEA stressed that OPEC+ countries will have to increase production to meet rising market demand. Bloomberg points out that road traffic in the US and most of Europe has recovered to pre-pandemic levels.At the same time, the full recovery of flights, and with them, demand for jet fuel remains in doubt, says Investec Bank's head of commodity markets, Collum McPherson. The return of Iranian oil to the market, he believes, will be a challenge for OPEC+ if demand does not pick ...

In international markets, the price of Brent crude oil in April of this year averaged $65, which did not change compared to the average value for March. According to the US Energy Short-term forecast (EIA), published on May 11, 2021, they are projected to average $65 per barrel in the second quarter of 2021, and then an average of 61 per barrel in the second half of 2021, therefore, a correction is expected to develop.Brent crude oil prices were high in 2020, averaging $64 a barrel in January. But they fell sharply in the second quarter, closing at about $9 a barrel in April 2020, when the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell to a negative price around -37 dollars a barrel.By June 2020, the price of Brent crude oil exceeded $40 per barrel, and by the end of 2020, it rose to $50 per barrel. In March and April 2021, prices rose to $65 per barrel due to rising oil demand due to an increase in the number of vaccinations and an increase in overall economic activity worldwide.The price increase also reflects supply constraints from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and OPEC partner countries. OPEC restricts oil production due to lower demand during the pandemic. At its meeting in April 2021, OPEC announced that it would start increasing oil production, with each adjustment being no more than 0.5 million barrels per day.According to the EIA forecasts, the average price of WTI oil in 2021 will be $59 per barrel, and in 2022 oil will be at the level of $57 per barrel.Four reasons for volatile oil pricesPreviously, oil prices had predictable seasonal fluctuations. They rose sharply in price in the spring, as oil traders expect high demand for cars for the summer holidays. When demand peaks, prices fall in the fall and winter, especially if the winter is warm.Oil prices have become unstable due to factors affecting oil prices. The coronavirus pandemic has led to a sharp drop in oil demand. This offset three other factors affecting oil prices: rising U.S. oil production, declining OPEC influence, and a stronger dollar.Slowing global demandThe EIA estimates that global demand for oil and liquid fuels in 2020 was 92.2 million barrels per day. This is 9 million barrels per day lower than in 2019. Demand is expected to grow by 5.4 million barrels per day in 2021 and another 3.7 million barrels per day in 2022.US oil production growthProducers of shale gas and alternative fuels such as ethanol in the US have increased their supply. They slowly increased the supply, maintaining prices high enough to cover the cost of developing new fields. Many shale gas producers have become more efficient at extracting oil. They found ways to keep the fields open, saving on the cost of closing them. This growth began in 2015 and has since affected supply.In August 2018, the United States became the world's largest oil producer. In September 2019, U.S. crude oil production rose to a record 12.1 million barrels per day. For the first time since 1973, the US exported more oil. In February 2021, U.S. crude oil production averaged 9.9 million barrels per day, down 1.2 million barrels per day from January. The EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production rose to 10.9 million bpd in March and nearly 11.0 million bpd in April.U.S. crude oil production is estimated to average 11.3 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2021 and increase to 11.8 million barrels per day in 2022.Reducing the influence of OPECAmerican shale oil producers have become more powerful, but they don't act like an OPEC-type cartel. To maintain market share, OPEC did not cut production enough to set a minimum price level.OPEC's leader, Saudi Arabia, wants higher oil prices because it is a source of government revenue. But it must balance this with the loss of market share to American and Russian companies.Saudi Arabia does not want to lose market share to its main rival, Shiite – led Iran. The 2015 nuclear peace Treaty lifted 2010 economic sanctions and allowed Saudi Arabia's biggest rival to export oil again in 2016. But that source dried up when President Donald Trump reimposed sanctions in 2018.The rise in the value of the dollarCurrency traders have been raising the value of the dollar since 2014. Many traders use the dollar as a safe investment in times of economic uncertainty. For example, the value of the dollar rose by 30% between 2013 and 2016 in response to the Greek debt crisis and Brexit. From March 3 to March 23, 2020, it grew by 8.4% due to the coronavirus pandemic.All oil transactions are paid in US dollars. Most oil-exporting countries link their currencies to the dollar. As a result, a 25% rise in the dollar offsets a 25% drop in oil prices. Global economic uncertainty keeps the US dollar strong.Brent oil price forecast for 2021 and 2022On the weekly oil chart, a large bullish "Wolf Wave" model was formed with the aim of working out the model at the level of $120 per barrel. As we can see, the potential for continued growth is still there. Moving averages indicate the presence of a short-term bullish trend in oil. Prices broke through the area between the signal lines up, which indicates pressure from buyers of "Black Gold" and the potential continuation of the growth of the asset value from the current levels. At the moment, we should expect an attempt to develop a correction and test the support level near the area of $68.50 per barrel. Further, the continuation of the growth of the oil exchange rate in the region above the level of $ 85 per barrel in 2021 and $ 120 in 2022.Read more: How to determine the beginning of the movement of the "bull" market?An additional signal in favor of the rise in quotations and prices for Brent oil will be a test of the support line on the relative strength indicator (RSI). The second signal will be a rebound from the lower border of the inverted "Head and Shoulders" reversal pattern. Confirmation of the rise in quotations will be the breakdown of the resistance level and the closing of Brent prices above the level of 70.55, as we can see, buyers can not break through this area in any way.Thus, the Brent forecast for oil prices for 2021 and 2022 suggests an attempt to develop a correction and test the support level near the area of 68.50. Further, the continuation of growth with a goal above the level of $85 per barrel in 2021 and $ 120 in 2022. A test of the trend line on the relative strength indicator, as well as the formation of a large inverted "Head and Shoulders" model, will be in favor of the rise.Oil price forecast for 2025 and 2050The EIA predicted that by 2025, the nominal price of Brent crude oil will rise to $66 per barrel.By 2030, it is expected that global demand will lead to an increase in the price of Brent crude oil to $89 per barrel. By 2040, prices are projected at $132 per barrel. By then, the sources of cheap oil will be exhausted, which will make oil production more expensive. By 2050, oil prices will be $185 per barrel, according to the EIA's Annual Energy Outlook.The EIA expects oil demand to stabilize as utilities rely more on natural gas and renewable energy sources. It is also assumed that economic growth averages about 2% per year, while energy consumption is declining by 0.4% per year. The EIA also has forecasts for other possible scenarios.Can oil cost $200 a barrel?Although it seems ridiculous now, there are situations in which the price of oil can reach $200 per barrel. The EIA forecasts Brent crude prices at $185 a barrel in 2050 if the cost of oil production falls and it displaces competing energy sources, but economic conditions could lead to even more price increases.In July 2008, oil prices reached a record high of about $147 per barrel. In December, they fell to about $40 per barrel, and then rose to $123 per barrel in April 2011. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) previously predicted that the price of Brent crude could rise to $270 a barrel on rapidly growing demand from China and other emerging markets.The price of oil at the level of $200 per barrel can change consumer consumption. The use of oil as an energy source has led to climate change. There is an opinion that high oil prices lead to a "drop in demand". If high prices persist long enough, people change their buying habits. The drop in demand occurred after the 1979 oil shock. Oil prices have been falling steadily for years.The $200-a-barrel oil price forecast seems disastrous for the American way of life, but people in Europe have been paying high prices for years because of high taxes. As long as people have time to adjust, they will find ways to live with higher oil ...

What is OPEC and what are its functions?We all know about such raw materials as oil and the products that are produced from it. At the same time, everyone knows perfectly well that the extraction of black gold is carried out from the bowels of the earth. There are quite a small number of oil-producing countries on the whole Earth, the association of most of which is called OPEC. In this article, we will learn the history of the creation of the union, its impact on the shares of OPEC oil companies, the benefits of the cartel itself, the impact of OPEC on the stock market, what is the OPEC oil reserve, as well as where to find a live chart of OPEC oil prices and OPEC stock prices.OPECOPEC is an association of countries that export oil around the world. Structurally, OPEC is a cartel, that is, a community of participants who coordinate actions and strategies.The organization itself was founded as a result of the Baghdad Conference held from September 10 to 14, 1960.The founding countries were:Saudi Arabia;Iran;Iraq;Kuwait;Venezuela.At the moment, about 80% of the planet's oil reserves are located on the territory of the OPEC countries in total. In the field of production, this value reaches 40%, while global oil exports consist of OPEC supplies for half.Most of the OPEC members are relatively poor states, but as a single organization, they all have a serious impact on the price of oil and the world economy and politics. Saudi Arabia occupies a special position in OPEC.HistoryUntil the mid-1950s, oil was relatively inexpensive. Although it was a product of strategic importance, however, it did not have such importance as it is now. The main competitor of oil was coal, and the consumption of black gold was incomparably lower.Until the early 60s, the oil trade around the world was significantly controlled by 7 Oil companies. For the convenience of coordination, these companies created an international oil cartel, whose goal was to keep in the range of $1.5-3. At the same time, the most numerous oil deposits and the best conditions for its production were in the third world countries. At that time, these states had long wanted to overthrow the dictate of international corporations and fully earn on exports.On the verge of independenceThe OPEC member countries were dependent states about 50 years ago, and therefore they tried to get rid of this exploitation in various ways. This factor has contributed to the rapprochement of these States and their interests. However, none of these countries could defeat the Western states on their own. For example: in 1951, Iran tried to nationalize the Anglo-Iranian oil produced at that time, but was immediately subjected to crazy economic pressure from the United Kingdom, the United States and the International Oil Cartel.The purpose of creating OPECAt the time when the first composition of OPEC was formed, a surplus of sold oil was formed on the world market. This surplus was formed largely due to the active development of large oil fields in the Middle East. In addition, the USSR joined the world trade in black gold, which doubled the volume of production for the period from 1955 to 1960. This led to increased competition in the raw materials market, which, as a result, ensured a constant decline in prices.Thus, the creation of OPEC was primarily necessary for effective coordination and prevention of a decrease in prices for oil products. Since the world market was overflowing with oil in the 60s, OPEC's initial task was to apply oil production restrictions to stabilize prices.The first stepsBack in 1949, at the initiative of Venezuela, there was a rapprochement of the oil-producing countries. This state made contact with the powers of the Middle East and offered to come up with a way of mutually beneficial cooperation. However, this idea was not crowned with success, since the Arab partners did not yet have sufficient independence. Moreover, they retained the power of monarchs, who were not particularly willing to engage in dialogue.In 1959, oil corporations lowered the price of raw materials, which caused Venezuela to lose a huge amount of money at that time - $140 million. This case led to the unification of the oil exporting countries, during which the first Arab oil Congress was held in Cairo. The participants of the congress demanded that the oil companies must agree on actions with the leadership of the oil-producing powers before making any decision on the price of raw materials. In addition, it was proposed to create a special commission on oil issues.BackgroundBefore getting acquainted with the composition of OPEC, we note that the first signs of the emergence of the cartel appeared back in the 1930s at the time when the development of oil fields began in the Middle East. One of the first oil-bearing sources was Baghdad. In 1934, production began in Bahrain, in 1936 - in Kuwait, in 1938 - in Saudi Arabia, and after 1945 - in other countries.Read more: Bulls and bears, as well as other animals on the stock exchangeSince these powers did not have their own finances and human resources for oil production, emigrants were attracted to the development of mineral resources. The leader in this issue was five companies from the United States: Exxon Mobil, Texaco, Mobil Oil, Standard Oil Company of California, Gulf Oil. Later, the British "British Petroleum" joined the Americans.Very soon, the arrogance of these companies increased so much that the requirements of the laws of certain countries were simply ignored. In addition, the British and Americans took control of the natural resources and activities of countries with oil-rich lands. In 1960, thanks to the creation of OPEC, the countries of the Middle East were finally able to resist foreign oil giants.It is interesting that in most oil-producing countries, this type of activity is the main source of attracting foreign currency. Due to the extremely backward economic structure, the foreign trade transactions of these states are based only on oil. For example: in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Libya, the share occupied by petroleum products in exports is 100%. In Iraq, this value is 99%, in Qatar-98%, in Kuwait, Iran, Nigeria-93%, in Algeria - 85%, in Gabon - 77%, and in Indonesia - 69%.New playerAfter the creation of the cartel, seven more organizations joined the original five organizations. Thus, their number has expanded to 12. All OPEC member states have achieved independent control over their natural resources and their exploitation, taking into account only national interests. On September 1, 1965, OPEC found its Secretariat in Vienna.How it functionsDuring all this time, the composition of OPEC has changed several times. Nevertheless, the main organs remain the same:The ConferenceThe CouncilSecretariatThe Conference is a body that has a great influence. It is headed by the General Secretary. Meetings of the heads of energy ministries and other representatives of states are held twice a year within the framework of the conference. However, the main task of these negotiations is always to determine the state of the world oil market. Moreover, OPEC members are developing a plan to maintain stability in the market. Special attention is paid to the forecasts of the future situation in the world of oil and oil products.It should be noted that the organization, consisting of 12 states, owned most of the oil fields around the world. In the 1990s, Gabon left the organization, and Ecuador independently suspended its membership until the fall of 2007. Russia became an observer of the organization in 1998.OPEC basketThe cartel has adopted such a term as the OPEC basket. In short, this expression means the arithmetic average of the prices of oil grades produced in the member countries of the association. Today, OPEC members pay attention not only to the cost of a single variety, but also to the price of the entire OPEC basket. If we compare the graph of the oil basket and the graph of the share prices of OPEC oil companies, we will notice a correlation.Here is the full list of OPEC member countries:AlgeriaIranAngolaKuwaitIraqGabonEcuadorLibyaNigeriaQatarEquatorial GuineaSaudi ArabiaThe average value of the oil price of these countries is the basket.Consequences of the OPEC organizationOver time, the demand for oil increased, and the OPEC member countries carried out several coordinated actions. For example, the Arab participants established an oil embargo of Western countries in the 70s because of their support for Israel. In response, the price of oil on the world market soared by 400%: from $3 to $12. At the peak of demand-in the summer of 2008, a barrel of oil was already worth $140.73.What is OPEC+ and what is the difference from OPECOPEC+ is an association of countries that are not members of OPEC, but cooperate with it on issues of oil production and export. OPEC+ is less organized, but still has large oil reserves and has influence on the world market.OPEC+ appeared in 2016 against the background of dissatisfaction with the activities of OPEC by major oil exporters, and now the price of OPEC oil is currently determined by OPEC+.Both in OPEC and in OPEC+, no country is subordinate to another, although there is an unspoken influence. To present the current state of affairs in the oil market, let's get acquainted with the list of the main countries producing and exporting oil.Which countries are members of OPEC+?OPEC+ includes:Azerbaijan;Bahrain;Brunei;Kazakhstan;Malaysia;Mexico;Oman;Russia;Sudan;South Sudan.Statistics of countries on the level of oil productionThis was the state of the distribution of world oil production by in 2020:USA – 15.8%;Russia – 13.5%;Saudi Arabia – 12.1%;Canada – 5.7%;Iraq – 5.6%;China – 4.8%;United Arab Emirates – 4.4%;Brazil – 3.8%;Kuwait – 3.6%;Iran-2.5%;Venezuela – 2.8%;Mexico – 3.3%;Nigeria – 2.3%;Norway – 2.1;Angola – 2.0%.The share of other countries is smaller, as a result of which, if necessary, they unite with the leaders. This list clearly demonstrates that the OPEC+ member countries are far from inferior to the OPEC member countries, which forces both associations to seek compromises and negotiate.You can always find out the schedule of OPEC oil prices, OPEC+ and the schedule of prices for shares of OPEC oil companies here.Oil production in the Persian GulfThe main difference is the cost and transportation of raw materials. This allows Saudi Arabia, Iran and other countries of the Persian Gulf to be in the best conditions. Simply put, in the Persian Gulf:Oil usually lies shallow and gushes, that is, it does not require complex pumping equipment;Raw materials are extracted in the conditions of the so-called "eternal summer". There is simply no risk of freezing of wells.The ports are located in close proximity to the production sites. The cost of pipelines is minimal.The cost of oil production is from $8.5 to $12.6.The average break-even price, taking into account transport, taxes, etc. - from <$10 to $22.USA and CanadaAnd how are things with the United States and Canada? Most of the production in the United States is shale oil. This is a completely different method of production, which is very different from production in Russia, Arabia, and other countries. Here, too, briefly:Shale oil is more expensive and it is not always profitable to extract it: at the world price of about $50/barrel of Brent grade.Nevertheless, it is easier to stop shale production in the event of a fall in prices, as well as to resume with an increase.Companies producing shale oil in the United States and Canada are able to protect themselves with financial instruments, that is, they are insured by banks against losses when prices fall.The average break-even price of oil in the United States is $40-49.Why is the US not a member of OPEC or OPEC+?There is always some tension in relations between oil-producing countries. The first reason is different interests and conditions; the other reason is economic and political moments that are unique for each state separately. The United States failed to fit into the format of relations and, with high oil prices, occupied a large niche in the oil market.Another nuance: US companies, in accordance with American law, cannot participate in cartels, since the state authorities simply do not have the right to dictate the volume of production and the level of value to them. This made it difficult for America to partner with other states.How OPEC news affects the world and the economyTo begin with, we note that OPEC news is published regularly: OPEC shares are rising or falling, the cartel calls for reducing oil production or, conversely, increasing it. All these information flows are reflected in the share price of OPEC oil companies and on the charts of OPEC oil prices. The association is acutely reacting to OPEC's own oil reserves in storage, which is seasonal due to uneven oil use and weather conditions.Recently, the number of drilling platforms producing oil in the United States has been growing at a record high and already stands at 387 units. The increase in the cost of oil has a positive effect on the budget and the share price of oil companies. This attracts additional investments and stock market participants for trading, which causes the growth of shares of OPEC oil companies. Negative news and expectations put pressure on the share price of oil companies, which often seriously affects the state of the entire ...