
Non-farm Payrolls on February 7, 2025. Expectations and risksAccording to the consensus forecast, 169,000 jobs should be created in the US non-agricultural sector in January. This will be a noticeable decrease compared to the December gain of 256,000 jobs. Overall, in 2024, the U.S. economy steadily created an average of 186,000 jobs per month, which indicates the strength of the labor market before the beginning of 2025.The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%, while wages will increase by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year. However, the real employment rate may exceed forecasts, and experts estimate a range of possible outcomes from 175,000 to 225,000 new jobs.The key factor in evaluating data has traditionally been the average hourly wage. Any deviation from the range of 3.8–4.0% may affect inflation expectations, which, in turn, will affect the prospects for the Fed's monetary policy. If the wage data turns out to be higher than expected, this may force the Fed to maintain a cautious approach to lowering interest rates, which will lead to increased volatility in the US dollar.The current situation in the US labor marketThe US labor market is gradually slowing down. The December report showed a decrease in the number of open vacancies by more than 500,000, bringing their total volume to 7.6 million. The largest declines were recorded in professional services and healthcare, while the leisure and hospitality sector maintains steady demand for labor.Recruitment is slower, and layoffs in some industries are offsetting the number of new hires. Nevertheless, wage growth remains stable – over the past five months, the average wage level has been in the range of 3.9–4.0%, which indicates continued demand for labor.However, there are conflicting signals. The Manufacturing Employment Index (ISM Manufacturing Employment Index) rose to 50.3 in January, indicating a moderate expansion, while the ADP private sector report recorded employment growth of 183,000 jobs. Combined with geopolitical and trade factors, these data highlight the importance of the upcoming employment report.Possible scenarios and impact on marketsEmployment data will have a significant impact on the US dollar (DXY) and the general mood of financial markets.1. Strong report (over 190,000 new jobs)– The US dollar will strengthen, especially if the indicator turns out to be above 107.50, which is a support level.– Investors may reconsider expectations for a reduction in Fed rates, which will lead to an increase in bond yields.– The stock market may react cautiously, as high employment will increase inflationary risks and reduce the likelihood of aggressive policy easing.2. Weak report (less than 135,000 jobs, wage growth below 0.2%)– The likelihood of an accelerated Fed rate cut increases, which could weaken the dollar.– Stock markets, on the contrary, may receive support on expectations of monetary policy easing.Thus, the significance of the report goes beyond simple statistics – it will determine investor sentiment and market movement vectors in the coming weeks.Technical Analysis: US Dollar Index (DXY)At the moment, the dollar's bulls have failed to continue their growth: The index is showing the formation of a lower maximum, although it has not yet broken through key support levels.– The nearest support is at 107.00, followed by 106.13 and 105.76.– To continue the growth, the index needs to overcome the level of 108.00, and then the resistance at 108.49 and 109.52.The upcoming employment data will determine the further movement of the dollar: either an increase in corrective pressure, or a new round of growth with strong macroeconomic indicators.