Forex. WTI Crude Oil Trading Forecast and Signal for Today, April 19
At the end of last week, oil markets consolidated after a sharp rise the day before. A barrel of WTI was trading at a price value of $63 per barrel.
Participants in the OPEC+ agreement plan to reach the target levels of the deal in May–July 2021. According to the statement of the former Minister of Energy of Russia Alexander Novak, in April it was already decided that during May–July there will be a gradual recovery of production. This means that the values in the agreement of April last year are planned to be reached in the next three months as a whole for OPEC+. Oil exporters at the meeting decided, contrary to expectations, to increase the production of raw materials from May this year. The alliance countries will increase oil production by 350,000 barrels per day, in June by another 350,000, and in July by another 450,000. Thus, the decision was made immediately for three months. OPEC+ countries, which account for more than 40% of the world's oil production, have been meeting for consultations every month since the beginning of 2021 to set production levels for the short term. This approach gives them more flexibility in the face of a fragile recovery in demand.
According to economists at Danske Bank, continued vaccination, the opening of the economy and rising inflationary pressures have improved the outlook for oil prices. Raw material production will continue to grow in the second half of 2021. Strong monetary and fiscal policy support and a relatively weak dollar also provide a strong backdrop for global oil demand. OPEC+ began to normalize oil production, which reduced the potential for price growth against the background of high demand. The bank revised its trading forecasts upward and now expects Brent to cost an average of $65 per barrel in the second quarter, $70 per barrel in the third and fourth quarters, and $72.5 in 2022. The trading forecasts were adjusted by almost 10%.
WTI Crude Oil Trading Signal
The trading forecast expects a reversal and a decline in the price of WTI oil to 62.30 Dollars per barrel.