USD/CHF analysis on February 4, 2025
In Tuesday's morning trading session, USD/CHF shows a slight recovery after a sharp decline the day before, which prevented it from gaining a foothold at the highs since January 13. Currently, the asset is testing the 0.9125 mark, and market participants continue to monitor the dynamics associated with the introduction of new import duties by the United States.
On February 1, 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico were supposed to come into force, but their introduction was postponed for a month after these countries agreed to tighten controls on migration flows and the smuggling of prohibited substances. At the same time, tariffs of 10% on Chinese imports remain in force, and the US presidential administration announced an upcoming telephone conversation with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, which will take place in the coming days. The issue of the possible introduction of similar measures against the European Union remains unresolved. Earlier, Donald Trump stated that Brussels is pursuing an unfair trade policy towards the United States, but so far no concrete actions have been taken.
The latest macroeconomic statistics have an additional impact on the market. The index of business activity in the US manufacturing sector (ISM) rose from 49.3 to 50.9 points in January, exceeding the projected 49.8 points and returning above the critical 50 mark for the first time since 2022, indicating signs of industrial recovery. At the same time, the similar Swiss indicator calculated by SVME decreased from 48.4 to 47.5 points, not meeting analysts' expectations of 49.0 points, which indicates the weakness of the national manufacturing sector.
Expectations before the publication of data on the US labor market
On Friday at 15:30 (GMT+2), key data on the US labor market will be published, which may have a significant impact on the dynamics of the dollar. The number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector is projected to decrease from 256 thousand to 170 thousand, the average hourly wage growth will slow from 3.9% to 3.8%, and the unemployment rate will remain at 4.1%.
USD/CHF technical analysis
On the daily chart, the Bollinger Band indicator has taken a horizontal orientation, which indicates a possible slowdown in the uptrend. The MACD indicator retains a moderately positive signal and remains above the signal line. Stochastic from the overbought zone turned down, signaling a possible correction in the short term.
Trading recommendations
• It is recommended to open long positions in case of a confident breakdown of the 0.9130 level upwards with a target of 0.9200. The protective stop loss is 0.9100.
• Short positions can be considered after a rebound from 0.9130 and a breakdown of 0.9100 down with a target of 0.9037. The stop loss is 0.9130.