FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on October 1, 2024When Jerome Powell said that the Fed was in no hurry to act, it came as a surprise to the market, which is used to the speed of the regulator's decisions. As a result, the yield on Treasury bonds rose, and the EUR/USD pair fell sharply. Powell noted that the U.S. economy remains strong and there is no reason to accelerate the process of lowering interest rates. According to his forecasts, the Fed will carry out two more acts of monetary expansion in 2024, totaling 50 basis points.The beginning of monetary policy easing from a fairly significant step of 0.5% looks atypical, especially against the background of a strong economy. However, the Fed explained this by the need to lower real rates and prevent a recession, while inflation has already been defeated. This brings the market back to the familiar policy of constant support for the financial sector. The S&P 500 index continues to rise, updating records, as markets believe that the size of the rate cut does not matter if the economy remains stable.But for Treasury bonds and the US dollar, the issue of the Fed's move plays an important role. The dollar index (USD) has been falling for the third month in a row, which is the longest series since the beginning of 2023. Traders are selling off the dollar in anticipation of a long period of soft monetary policy.The Fed continues to set the tone for other Central Banks. According to Bloomberg research, borrowing rates in developed economies may more than double by the end of 2025, which signals a synchronous cycle of monetary easing. Usually, in such conditions, the dollar index does not experience a strong drop relative to other forex currency indices.However, global monetary expansion favours the global economy and, in particular, the euro. However, its effect is delayed, and the vulnerability of the Eurozone economy leaves opportunities for EUR/USD bears in the short term.Additional pressure on the euro was exerted by inflation statistics in Europe. The slowdown in price growth in the Eurozone increases the risks of a CPI decline below 2% and increases the likelihood of a deposit rate cut by the European Central Bank in October. Christine Lagarde has already hinted that the ECB will take the latest data into account when making a decision.In such a situation, the US employment report will be a key factor in choosing the EUR/USD direction. If the employment data turns out to be strong, the pair may go beyond the lower limit of the 1.108-1.121 range. Otherwise, weak figures will increase the chances of continuing the uptrend. So far, it is advisable to keep selling positions open on growth to the level of 1,121.EUR/USD Technical analysisEUR/USD failed to update the maximum on September 25th yesterday. Instead, the pair declined again to the support area 1.1130 - 1.1121. At the moment, this zone has not been broken through, however, the probability of fixing the price below is high. In this case, we can expect the correction to continue to develop towards the support area 1.1088 - 1.1075, that is, the border of the short-term uptrend.In case of working out a decrease to the support area, purchases can be considered again. The first target for the bulls will be the 1.1144 level. The second one is the 1.1214 mark. To change the trend direction to a downward one, sellers need to break through the 1.1075 level and consolidate below.