Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is growing moderately, developing a powerful "bullish" momentum formed the day before, and updating local highs since August 2.
On Wednesday, buyers became noticeably more active, reacting to an unexpectedly optimistic speech by Richard Clarida, a representative of the US Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC), who said that the reduction of existing incentives could take place as early as this calendar year. As a possible reason for such a decision, the official called the risks of accelerating inflation, which have been worrying the bidders for a long time. Additional support for the US currency was provided by the published index of business activity in the services sector from ISM. In July, the indicator rose sharply from 60.1 to 64.1 points, while analysts expected it to increase only to 60.4 points.
The focus of attention of bidders on Thursday will be statistics from the United States on the dynamics of primary and secondary applications for unemployment benefits. Market activity is likely to remain subdued as traders prepare for the publication of the final report on the US labor market, scheduled for Friday.
Support and resistance levels
On the daily chart, the Bollinger bands are moving flat within the forex forecast. The price range practically does not change, but it remains quite spacious for the current level of activity in the market. The MACD indicator has turned in the direction of growth and is currently forming a buy signal (the histogram tends to be located above the signal line). Stochastic shows a similar dynamics, signaling in favor of the growth of the instrument in the ultra-short term.
- Resistance levels: 110.00, 110.38, 110.68, 111.00.
- Support levels: 109.57, 109.29, 109.00, 108.71.
Trading Scenarios
Thus, USD/JPY Dollar Yen forecast for August 6-9, 2021, long positions can be opened after the breakdown of the 110.00 level up with the goal of 110.68. Stop loss is 109.65. Implementation period: 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after a rebound from the level of 110.00 and a breakdown of the level of 109.57 down with the goal of 109.00. Stop loss — 109.80.