USD/JPY analysis for November 15, 2023
On Wednesday, USD/JPY is trading around 150.50. After yesterday's release of the US inflation report, the dollar's position came under pressure.
In October, inflation slowed from 0.4% to 0.0% (m/m) and from 3.7% to 3.2% (y/y). Investors believed in the imminent end of the Fed's financial tightening cycle and a rate cut from Q1 2024. At the same time, the Fed has consistently stated its intention to keep rates high for a long time, possibly all next year.
Japan had a number of economic releases. Third quarter GDP contracted by 0.5% (q/q) and 2.1% (y/y). At the same time, industrial production in September rose from 0.2% to 0.5% (m/m) and from (-4.6%) to (-4.4%) y/y.
The day before, Japan's Finance Minister announced the government's readiness to intervene in forex trading and support the Yen, although these actions may not involve currency intervention.
Technical analysis for USD/JPY for today
The Bollinger Bands indicator on the days chart remain in a slight rise while the MACD indicator has turned downward and formed a weak sell signal. The Stochastic oscillator is steadily declining.
If the price consolidates below 150.50, we move to sell the pair with the first target at 150.00. Placement of stop-loss at 150.75.
If the pair consolidates above 151.00, we return to sales, but remember the probable risks of intervention of the Japanese authorities. The target is 151.50. Stop-loss will be set at 150.65.