Brent crude oil demonstrates an attempt to break out of the resistance level in the area of 79-80 dollars per barrel. The rise in prices during the week was facilitated by the growing concern of traders with a reduction in stocks of raw materials around the world, with an increase in demand on the eve of winter. Such growth is seasonal, which provokes market participants to buy black gold.
According to the latest media reports, the continuing shortage of supply leads to an even greater tightening of conditions in the oil market. At the same time, stocks in the OECD countries are likely to be at a minimum level to cover demand. This serves as an additional driver in favor of strengthening Brent crude.
In addition, the trend of strengthening of black gold has been visible since mid-August. There is a high probability of reaching the maximum value on June 1 in the region of $115 per barrel, with further gravitation to the April maximum quotation in the region of $130 per barrel.
But there are also risks, cases of coronavirus infection are growing in Europe. There is a growing likelihood of a slowdown in the consumption of European countries due to the prospect of the introduction of lockdowns. Recall that the Bank of England and the European Central Bank are likely to leave their main interest rates at the same level due to the threat of a pandemic. Their monetary policy is likely to remain unchanged this year.
Oil trading is also affected by the consequences of Hurricane Ida, which led to the suspension of a significant part of the production capacity in the Gulf of Mexico. This, according to experts, more than offset the increase in production by OPEC+ countries since July of this year.
The forecast expects the growth of Brent crude oil to the levels of 115, 130 dollars per barrel.