EUR/GBP: Euro holds growth by the end of the weekThe EUR/GBP pair is showing moderate growth, continuing the upward correction started this week and holding near the local highs recorded on October 17.Investors' main attention is focused on business activity data for October in the EU and the UK. In the eurozone, the index of business activity in the service sector, published by S&P Global, fell from 51.4 to 51.2 points, although an increase to 51.6 points was expected. In the manufacturing sector, the indicator increased from 45.0 to 45.9 points, which exceeded analysts' forecasts of 45.1 points, while the composite index in the same sector increased slightly from 49.6 to 49.7 points, coinciding with market expectations. In the UK, the statistics turned out to be more negative: the index of business activity in industry fell from 51.5 to 50.3 points, against the expected 51.4 points, and the index in the services sector fell from 52.4 to 51.8 points, falling short of the projected 52.2 points. The composite indicator from S&P Global/CIPS also showed a decrease from 52.6 to 51.7 points. Additionally, the British currency is under pressure from a deterioration in consumer sentiment: the Gfk Group confidence index fell from -20.0 to -21.0 points in October.Market participants continue to closely monitor the development of monetary policy in the eurozone. Traders are still expecting a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB), while forecasts for changes in the policy of the US Federal Reserve Bank are changing amid the increased chances of Donald Trump winning the presidential election scheduled for November 5. Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that final decisions on interest rates have not yet been made, and called for a cautious approach to possible adjustments. The head of the Bank of Portugal, Mario Centeno, on the contrary, called for a sharp rate cut of 50 basis points at the next ECB meeting on December 12.Resistance levels: 0.8350, 0.8359, 0.8370, 0.8384.Support levels: 0.8338, 0.8326, 0.8310, 0.8294.NZD/USD: RBNZ reacts to rising unemployment and lowers interest ratesOn October 25, the NZD/USD currency pair is trading at 0.5996, which is 0.33% lower compared to the previous trading session. The New Zealand dollar continues to weaken amid weak economic data and actions by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). The bank recently lowered its key interest rate to 4.75%, due to a slowdown in inflation to 4.9% and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.1%. RBNZ is trying to stimulate domestic consumption and support exports, as the economy continues to show signs of slowing down.In addition, the pressure on the NZD exchange rate is exerted by the global trend in favor of the US dollar, which remains stable due to stable economic indicators in the United States. The main focus of the market is on the expected data on US GDP for the third quarter, as well as on the publication of the consumer spending index (PCE), which is a key indicator of inflation for the Fed. Inflation in the United States is stable at 3.7%, which gives the Federal Reserve reason to maintain the current policy of high rates.The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has issued a statement on its readiness to take additional measures to support the economy if domestic demand does not recover in the coming quarters. In turn, the strengthening of the US dollar is associated with confidence that the Fed will be able to control inflationary risks in a tight monetary policy environment. Any deviations in the GDP or PCE data may lead to increased volatility in the market and a change in the dynamics of the NZD/USD pair.Resistance levels: 0.6020, 0.6080.Support levels: 0.5950, 0.5910.AUD/JPY: Inflation in Australia is slowing, putting pressure on AUDAs of October 25, 2024, the AUD/JPY currency pair is trading at 100.64, which is 0.07% lower compared to the previous trading session. This decrease is due to the strengthening of the Japanese yen against the background of recent statements by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and weakening economic activity in Australia.The economic situation in Australia remains difficult. In the recent inflation report for the third quarter, the consumer price index (CPI) fell to 5.1%, which is lower than the previous 5.6%. This indicates a weakening of inflationary pressures, but the economy remains vulnerable, which forces the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to adhere to a cautious monetary policy. At the same time, the unemployment rate in the country rose to 3.9%, which is higher than analysts' expectations. In response to these economic challenges, the RBA is not yet considering an active tightening of policy, which also puts pressure on the Australian dollar.In Japan, the situation is more stable, but challenges remain. The Bank of Japan maintains an extremely soft monetary policy, despite an increase in inflation to 3.2% in annual terms. The level of business activity remains below 50 points, indicating a slowdown in the economy, but the BOJ continues to monitor bond yields in an attempt to support growth. This decision has a positive effect on the yen, increasing its competitiveness, especially against the background of the strengthening Australian dollar.Resistance levels: 101.00, 101.50.Support levels: 100.30, 99.90.Copper market analysisAs of October 25, 2024, the price of Copper is $9,367.25 per ton, which is 0.04% more than in the previous trading session. The price increase is due to continued demand amid supply uncertainty and the recovery of industrial production in key consumer countries such as China.The economic situation in China has a significant impact on the copper market. China, as the world's largest consumer of copper, continues to show signs of recovery in industrial production. The latest data on the index of business activity in the industrial sector (PMI) for September showed an increase to 50.3 points, which indicates the return of activity to a positive zone. The Chinese authorities also announced support for infrastructure projects, which led to an increase in demand for copper in the construction and energy industries. Investors continue to closely monitor the government's policy on stimulating the economy, as any measures to support production could significantly increase demand for copper in the coming months.In the global context, there are also concerns about the limited supply of copper against the background of geopolitical risks and possible supply disruptions. Problems in the extractive sector in a number of countries, such as Chile and Peru, affect overall production and keep prices high. Chilean mines are facing protests and operational difficulties, which limit copper exports, while in Peru, logistics and labor problems continue to constrain supply volumes.Resistance levels: $9,450, $9,600.Support levels: $9,300, ...
The February unemployment data released by the Japanese government came as a surprise to most analysts. Statistics show a decrease of 0.1 percentage point in relation to its value in January to 2.7%. At the same time, analysts believed that unemployment in the country would remain at the January level of 2.8%. As of the end of the reporting month, the total number of unemployed Japanese amounted to 1 million 800 thousand people. Compared to the same month of the previous year, the indicator decreased by 150 thousand people or 7.7%. The number of unemployed population of the country has reached 42 million 150 thousand people. Compared to the same month in 2021, the indicator showed an increase of 14 thousand people or 0.3%. In the process of its calculation, data on unemployed Japanese whose age exceeds 65 years were taken into account. The Japanese economy is gradually recovering from the crisis caused by the pandemic. The increase in exports contributes to GDP growth. Last week, the head of the Central Bank of the country, Haruhiko Kuroda, said that the regulator does not plan to make changes to its PREP ...
According to Markit Economics, activity in the Australian manufacturing sector continues to grow. However, the pace of this growth has slowed down slightly. The PMI value fell this month to 51.7 points, which was the lowest level of the indicator for the last 14 months. In July, it was at the level of 56.9 points. The survey participants reported a negative impact on the production of supply disruptions. Demand has also declined. This is evidenced by a decrease in the volume of new orders. The deadlines for the execution of applications by suppliers have increased. At the same time, they are growing at the fastest pace since April last year. The degree of price pressure decreased slightly in August. However, production costs grew at a rate that is significantly higher than the average value. Despite the existing problems, many representatives of companies positively assess the prospects for the next 12 months. The PMI in the Australian services sector fell this month by 0.9 points to 43.3 ...
Data published by the Australian Customs Administration shows an increase in the country's foreign trade surplus. At the end of June, it amounted to $10 billion 496 million, which is $51 million more than the experts' forecast. In the previous month, the surplus amounted to $9 billion 269 million. Experts note that Australia has managed to maintain a profit on the foreign trade balance for more than 40 months in a row. This indicates a high demand for its products from countries that are Australia's main trading partners. In June, the growth rate of export deliveries in monthly terms slowed to 4%. According to the results of the previous month, the volume of Australian exports increased by 6%. Imports rose by 1% in June after rising by 3% in May. According to Moody's, Australia is on the list of countries with moderate economic losses from the coronavirus pandemic. Its economy is gradually ...
Retail sales in Australia fell by 1.8% in June compared to the previous month. This is reported by the statistics department. Retail declined at the highest rate at the end of this year. It significantly exceeded the forecasts.The experts who participated in the survey predicted a decline in retail trade in the reporting period by only 0.5%. The main reason for the negative dynamics is the complication of the epidemiological situation in some regions of the country and the introduction of restrictions against this background. Experts admit that the retail volume in Australia will continue to decline. Demand from consumers will decrease due to the curtailment of state support and the lack of guarantees for the level of employment.Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison says that the economic state of the state at the end of the current quarter is likely to show deterioration. According to analysts ' forecast, the country's gross domestic product may shrink by 2 trillion Australian dollars in the third quarter, which will be the first decline in GDP since June ...
The Central Bank of Australia has released the minutes of the last meeting, which was held this month. The document, in particular, says that it is too early to discuss the curtailment of the asset purchase program. This program supports the Australian economy. It will be necessary until the country's economy returns to its pre-crisis state. According to the RBA forecast, the full normalization of the situation in the country's labor market, as well as the achievement of the target value for the level of inflation, will occur no earlier than 2024. The meeting participants suggested that in the coming years, the wages of Australians will grow. Currently, the country's economy is moving from recovery to growth. The protocol also states that the exchange rate of the national currency changes in a narrow range. A significant rise in the price of some commodities did not have a serious impact on the dynamics of the Australian dollar. The national currency is supported by an effective monetary policy, which is carried out by the Central Bank of the ...
In the macroeconomic statistics coming out next week, the following indicators can be distinguished: : Monday In Australia, the index of activity in the service sector from AiG and the indicator of the number of vacancies from ANZ Bank will be published. China will publish data on imports, exports and the overall trade balance. In Japan, the indices of leading and matching indicators will be known.In Switzerland, the unemployment rate and the consumer price index will be released. Germany will publish data on production orders. In the Euro area, the Sentix investor confidence indicator will become known. In Russia, the consumer price index will be published.In the US, the dynamics of consumer lending volumes will be published.Tuesday In Japan, economic growth indicators for the first quarter of 2021, changes in the level of wages, the balance of foreign trade and bank lending data will be released. New home sales figures will be released in Australia. The National Bank of Australia will present the confidence index and the index of business conditions. In Japan, the index of the current situation and the forecast of developments from Eco Watchers will be known.Industrial production data will be released in Germany and Sweden. In France, the figures for imports, exports and the overall trade balance will be published. In the euro area, the GDP growth indicator for the first quarter of 2021, the employment rate and the ZEW Institute's index of economic sentiment will be released.In the US, the business optimism index, the trade balance and the Redbook retail sales index will be published. In Canada, data on imports, exports and general statistics on international trade in goods will be released. The American Petroleum Institute will report last week on raw materials stocks.Wednesday In New Zealand, sales data in the industrial sector will be released. Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Christopher Kent will deliver a speech. In Australia, the Westpac consumer confidence index will also be published. The National Bank of New Zealand will provide an activity forecast, and the Reserve Bank will provide an index of business optimism. In China, the consumer price index will be known.Germany will publish data on imports, exports and the overall trade balance.In the US, the MBA mortgage lending index will be released. On the same day, a meeting of the Bank of Canada will be held, the regulator's decision on the interest rate will be announced. The Energy Information Administration will report last week on commercial oil reserves in the United States.Thursday New Zealand will publish retail sales data. In Japan, the producer price index and indicators of foreign and Japanese investment in securities will be released. In Australia, expectations for consumer price inflation will become known.In France, the number of new jobs outside of agriculture and industrial production data will be published. In Sweden, the consumer price index will be known, and in Italy – the indicators of industrial production. The European Central Bank will hold a meeting, the decision on the interest rate will be known. Andy Haldane, a representative of the Monetary Policy Committee, will make a speech.The US will publish the number of initial and repeated applications for unemployment benefits, the basic and basic consumer price indices and the monthly budget report. The Energy Information Administration will report last week on natural gas reserves in the United States. Timothy Lane, a representative of the Board of Governors of the Bank of Canada, will make a speech.Friday In New Zealand and Japan, business activity indices in the manufacturing sector will be published.In the UK, data on industrial production and manufacturing output, the index of activity in the service sector, the balance of trade in goods and the GDP growth indicator for May will be released. In Germany, the wholesale price index will be known. The Bank of Russia will announce the decision on the interest rate.In the US, the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence index will be published. Baker Hughes will report on active drilling rigs in the US and around the ...
The index, which measures business conditions in Australia, rose 8 points in April from the previous month to 32 points. According to the report, which was published by the statistical office of the country. It also notes that all the components that make up this index also showed positive dynamics. So, the subindex, which characterizes trading conditions in Australia, rose in April by 5 points and amounted to 40 points. The indicator that measures the degree of profitability of companies increased by 8 points in monthly terms to 33 points. The employment sub-index rose 7 points to 22 points. This indicator has improved even though the government's employment support program has expired. Business confidence in the Australian economy also rose in April. The corresponding indicator increased by 9 points to 26 points. The growth of confidence was recorded in all sectors of the country's economy against the background of the recovery of retail ...