EUR/AUD: Australia's economic indicators have reduced pressure on the euroThe EUR/AUD pair is trading at 1.6627 on the morning of September 5, showing a slight increase of about 0.01% compared to the previous trading session. Market activity remains relatively stable despite the volatility caused by external macroeconomic data.The economic situation in the eurozone continues to be unstable. The index of business activity in the services sector (PMI) in August amounted to 47.9 points, which is lower than forecasts and indicates a slowdown in economic activity. At the same time, GDP data for the second quarter showed an increase of 0.3%, which is in line with analysts' expectations. The continued pressure on the eurozone economy is due to rising energy prices and the consequences of geopolitical instability.The Australian economy is also facing challenges. Recent retail sales data showed a decrease in the growth rate from 0.5% to 0.4%, indicating weakness in domestic demand. Despite this, the labor market remains stable, and the unemployment rate is at 3.6%. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) did not change the interest rate at the last meeting, keeping it at 4.1%, however, the head of the RBA announced the possibility of further tightening monetary policy in the event of a deterioration in the inflationary situation.Resistance levels: 1.0850, 1.0940.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0720.NZD/USD: a tool on the way to corrective growthThe NZD/USD pair shows a slight increase, continuing to develop a weak upward momentum, which was formed after recovering from local lows reached on August 23. Now the instrument is trying to break through the 0.6200 mark, while market participants are waiting for the publication of important data on the US labor market, which will take place at the end of the week. Today at 14:15 (GMT+2), a report from ADP on private sector employment for August will be presented. If the forecasts come true and the employment rate will rise from 122.0 thousand. up to 145.0 thousand, the US dollar may receive additional support, which will reduce the likelihood of softening the Fed's rhetoric at the September meeting.This week, investors also paid attention to the dairy product price index, a key export item of New Zealand. In August, the indicator decreased by 0.4% after an increase of 5.5% in July. Additionally, data on the ANZ commodity price index was published, which increased by 2.1% after falling by 1.7% in the previous month.Markets continue to analyze the next steps of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), which recently cut the interest rate by 25 basis points, which happened a little earlier than expected. This decision has caused optimism among businesses and consumers, strengthening confidence in the economic recovery. According to the regulator's forecasts, by the middle of next year the rate may fall below 4.50%. According to Centrix, the level of mortgage delinquency remains 12.0% higher than last year, but there is a positive trend against the background of lower borrowing costs, which contributes to the correction of consumer spending. Despite the recent rate hike, New Zealand house prices remain 19.0% below the November 2021 peak, less than half of the more than 40.0% increase during the COVID-19 pandemic.Resistance levels: 0.6200, 0.6221, 0.6254, 0.6300.Support levels: 0.6177, 0.6153, 0.6130, 0.6100.USD/JPY: the Bank of Japan noted moderate growth ratesThe USD/JPY pair remains near the minimum recorded on August 5 at 143.50, while market activity remains subdued, as investors await the publication of data on the American labor market.Statistics from Japan continue to show mixed results. In July, the wage level fell from 4.5% to 3.6%, which exceeded forecasts of 3.1%, but this may put pressure on inflation, which the Bank of Japan focuses on when developing monetary policy. The index of business activity in the services sector remained at 53.7 points, below the expected 54.0 points, and the composite index rose from 52.5 to 52.9 points, falling short of the projected 53.0 points.Hajime Takata, a member of the Board of the Bank of Japan, noted that the Japanese economy is recovering at a moderate pace, despite the volatility in the markets in August. According to him, the country continues to move towards achieving the inflation target, and import prices are also rising. Takata added that the current real interest rate remains below the calculated one, which indicates favorable conditions for monetary policy. Experts expect that the Bank of Japan may raise the interest rate again by the end of the year.Resistance levels: 144.00, 145.00, 146.00, 147.00.Support levels: 143.35, 142.50, 141.68, 141.00.Silver market analysisDuring the Asian session, the XAG/USD (silver) pair demonstrates multidirectional dynamics, remaining near the level of 28.25. On the eve of the quotes were adjusted, retreating from the lows recorded on August 15. The main pressure on the price is exerted by the revision of short- and medium-term strategies of investors in response to large-scale stock sales, which also affected commodity markets.The activity of market participants remains low in anticipation of the publication of key data on the US labor market, scheduled for the end of the week. These data may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on future monetary policy at the September meeting. The baseline scenario assumes a reduction in the interest rate by 25 basis points, but the probability of a more significant reduction by 50 basis points is estimated at no higher than 35.0%. The number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector is expected to grow from 114.0 thousand. up to 160.0 thousand, and the average hourly wage will increase from 0.2% to 0.3% on a monthly basis and from 3.6% to 3.7% on an annual basis. The unemployment rate is expected to decrease from 4.3% to 4.2%. Weaker data may increase the likelihood of a change in the monetary exchange rate, which will support the asset.Resistance levels: 28.30, 28.68, 29.00, 29.35.Support levels: 28.00, 27.60, 27.30, ...
EUR/AUD: economic concerns in Australia and Germany affect the pairThe EUR/AUD pair is correcting after a volatile start to the week, trading at 1.6840 and updating the lows of recent days.Despite attempts by the euro to strengthen, macroeconomic data did not provide sufficient support. In June, German industrial production fell by 1.5% compared to the previous month, which was unexpected for analysts who had expected an increase of 0.5%. At the same time, inflation in the Eurozone remains at a high level, which increases pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to further tighten monetary policy.On the other hand, Australia's macroeconomic indicators also raise concerns. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the interest rate at 4.10%, which was expected by the market. However, economic activity in the country is showing signs of slowing down, especially in the construction sector, where the business activity index fell to 47.9 points, indicating a reduction in activity. This creates additional challenges for the Australian economy, despite high commodity prices, which traditionally support AUD.Resistance levels: 1.6900, 1.7000.Support levels: 1.6750, 1.6600.GBP/NZD: UK unemployment rate rises to 4.3%The GBP/NZD pair is correcting after a bearish start to the week, trading at 2.1189 and updating recent lows.Despite attempts by the pound to strengthen, macroeconomic data did not provide sufficient support. In the UK, the unemployment rate increased to 4.3% from 4.1% last month, which caused concern among investors. Inflation in the country remains high, which puts additional pressure on the Bank of England in terms of tightening monetary policy. In turn, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the interest rate at 5.5%, which was expected by the market, but this did not lead to a significant strengthening of the New Zealand dollar.Analysts predict that in the coming weeks, the GBP/NZD pair will trade in the range of 2.1000-2.1300. Despite the weak macroeconomic data, the pound may receive support in the event of an improvement in economic conditions in the UK or an increase in negative economic data in New Zealand. Investors are also closely monitoring the actions of central banks, which may significantly affect the further dynamics of the currency pair.Resistance levels: 2.1300, 2.1450.Support levels: 2.1000, 2.0850.Palladium market analysisPalladium is correcting after a volatile start to the week, trading at $925.15 per ounce as of August 8, 2024.Despite steady demand from the automotive sector, the global palladium market continues to experience significant fluctuations in 2024. In the first half of the year, palladium prices reached an annual low of $859.15 per ounce in February, but then recovered to $963.50 at the end of June. In July, the price declined again, reaching $881.00, due to the high level of volatility and instability in the global economy. The demand for palladium in the automotive industry remains a key factor influencing the price of the metal. According to the World Platinum Investment Council, demand in the automotive sector will remain stable at 8.45 million ounces in 2024. At the same time, the total supply of palladium, including extraction and processing, will be about 10.03 million ounces, which leads to relative stability in the market.Analysts predict that palladium prices may fluctuate in the range of $900-$1,000 per ounce in the coming months. It is expected that an increase in supply due to recycling and stable demand from the automotive industry will support the market. Nevertheless, possible changes in the global economy and geopolitical instability may continue to affect the price of palladium.Resistance levels: 950, 1000.Support levels: 900, 880.Coffee market analysisThe coffee market on the commodity exchange shows interesting dynamics on August 8, 2024. The coffee trade remains active despite a number of economic and political factors influencing the quotes.Despite the increase in global demand for coffee, quotes continue to experience volatility. First of all, this is due to a change in consumer preferences and the growing popularity of specialty coffees. The European market accounts for a significant share of global coffee consumption, especially in countries such as Germany, France and Italy. The demand for high-quality coffee and specialty varieties continues to grow, which supports prices in the market. According to the latest data, the global coffee market is estimated at US$161.66 billion and is expected to grow to US$ 207.07 billion by 2032. The growth of the market is supported by an increase in the number of coffee shops and cafes, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, where the influence of Western culture is increasing and the young population is actively adopting new consumption trends.Political instability in some coffee-producing countries, such as Brazil and Colombia, also affects supply and, consequently, prices. For example, policy changes, the introduction of trade barriers and currency fluctuations can significantly affect exports and domestic coffee prices. Analysts predict that coffee prices may fluctuate in the coming months depending on weather conditions in the growing regions, political stability in the producing countries and global economic trends. It is expected that the growth in demand for organic and specialty coffee will continue, which will support the market in the long term.Resistance levels: 950, 1000.Support levels: 900, ...
EUR/AUD: expectations of ECB policy tightening support the euroThe EUR/AUD pair is correcting after a volatile start to the week, trading at 1.65715 and updating the lows of the last month.The economic situation in the Eurozone remains difficult. German GDP declined in the second quarter, which negatively affected the economic prospects of the region. At the same time, inflation in the Eurozone reached 2.6% in July, which is higher than analysts' expectations and may lead to a tightening of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank. This creates mixed conditions for the euro, which is supported by expectations of a rate hike, but suffers from weak economic growth in key countries in the region.In Australia, the latest inflation data exceeded forecasts, which may force the Reserve Bank of Australia to reconsider its plans to lower interest rates and possibly even consider raising rates. At the same time, economic indicators such as employment and retail sales remain under pressure, which creates favorable conditions for the strengthening of the euro against the Australian dollar.Resistance levels: 1.6700, 1.6800.Support levels: 1.6500, 1.6400.GBP/NZD: economic difficulties affect the pair's exchange rateThe GBP/NZD pair is correcting after a volatile start to the week, trading at 2.13805 and updating the lows of the last month.The economic situation in the UK is showing signs of weakness. The Bank of England recently decided to cut the interest rate by 25 basis points, which is the first reduction in the last four years. This decision is due to a slowdown in GDP growth and weak inflation, which puts pressure on the British pound. On the other hand, New Zealand is also experiencing economic difficulties, including declining retail sales and high unemployment, which negatively affects the New Zealand dollar.Political and economic uncertainty in both countries continues to affect the volatility of the pair. In the UK, problems related to Brexit and general political instability remain, while in New Zealand, economic data remains weak. Nevertheless, analysts predict a possible strengthening of the GBP/NZD pair to the level of 2.229 by the end of August 2024, provided that economic indicators in the UK improve.Resistance levels: 2.1600, 2.2000.Support levels: 2.1200, 2.1000.USD/CHF: stable growth of the franc against the background of lower inflation in the United StatesThe USD/CHF pair is correcting after a volatile start to the week, trading at 0.9000 and updating the lows of the last month.The economic situation in the United States remains mixed. The latest inflation data showed a slight decrease, which reduced the likelihood of further tightening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. This puts pressure on the dollar, which remains influenced by expectations of lower interest rates. In Switzerland, on the contrary, stable economic growth remains, and the Swiss National Bank adheres to the policy of a strong franc, which supports the CHF exchange rate at a high level.Political and economic instability on a global scale continues to have an impact on foreign exchange markets. Investors continue to look for safe assets such as the Swiss franc amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties. Analysts predict that in the near future, the USD/CHF pair may fluctuate in the range of 0.8950-0.9050, with a possible move to the level of 0.8800 with the strengthening of the franc's position.Resistance levels: 0.9040, 0.9100.Support levels: 0.8950, 0.8900.Silver market overviewSilver is correcting after a volatile start to the month, trading at $28.70 per ounce and updating the lows of recent weeks.Despite steady demand from investors, global economic data remains mixed. In the second quarter of 2024, weak Chinese GDP data caused a rate cut by the People's Bank of China, which put temporary pressure on the silver market. In the United States, there is a decrease in inflation, which reduces the likelihood of further tightening of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System. It also puts pressure on the dollar, supporting silver prices.Political events such as the third plenary session of China have attracted the attention of the market. The meeting confirmed China's commitment to support industrial production, which should have a positive impact on silver demand in the short and medium term. However, the lack of specific measures to stimulate domestic consumption leaves a number of unanswered questions.Analysts predict that silver prices may fluctuate in the range of $28.00-$31.00 in the coming months, with a possible increase to $34.70 by the end of 2024. JP Morgan expects silver to break the $30 per ounce mark by the end of the year, supported by lower interest rates and a weakening dollar.Resistance levels: $30.00, $31.00.Support levels: $28.00, ...
The unemployment rate in Spain fell at a record pace in July, as the labor market began to recover from the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, data from the Labor Ministry showed.In July, exceeding the record figures of the previous two months, unemployment fell sharply by 197,841 people. Unemployment fell by 166,911 people in June and by 129,378 people in May.Seasonally adjusted, registered unemployment fell by 191,756 people in July.Unemployment fell by 133,658 in the service sector and by 13,158 in industry. In the construction sector, unemployment fell by 10,154 people and by 8,880 people in the agricultural sector.Unemployment among young people under the age of 25 fell by 36,926 people or 12.34 percent in July compared to the previous ...
