EUR/CAD: Canadian inflation and oil affect the pair's exchange rateAs of October 17, the EUR/CAD pair is trading near the level of 1.4937 and shows a slight decrease of 0.02% compared to the previous session. Markets remain waiting for key economic publications on both the euro and the Canadian dollar, which gives the pair low volatility and cautious sentiment among traders.The economic situation in the eurozone remains under pressure amid a slowdown in manufacturing activity. In September, the business activity index (PMI) in the eurozone manufacturing sector fell to 43.4 points, reflecting weak business confidence, while in the services sector the indicator was 48.7 points. Forecasts for the upcoming data point to a possible further decline, which reinforces expectations of additional stimulus from the European Central Bank (ECB). At the same time, the latest inflation data showed that the core consumer price index (CPI) remained at 2.7%, while the overall figure was 1.8% year-on-year. Experts suggest that a slowdown in inflation may push the ECB to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which will be considered at the upcoming meeting.On the other hand, the Canadian economy is showing growth in the energy sector. Oil prices, Canada's main export commodity, remain high, supporting the Canadian dollar. In September, the inflation rate in Canada was 3.8% year-on-year, and the unemployment rate remained at 5.2%. The Bank of Canada is expected to decide at its next meeting to keep the interest rate at 5%, but rising inflation may force the regulator to reconsider its plans. Additionally, the market is waiting for the publication of retail sales data in Canada, which, according to forecasts, may show an increase of 0.4% in September.Resistance levels: 1.0850, 1.0940.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0720.AUD/CHF: the Australian currency is declining amid weak unemployment dataThe AUD/CHF pair at the time of the trading session on October 17 shows a slight decrease and is trading at 0.5940, which is 0.32% less than in the previous session. The pair is under pressure against the background of unfavorable macroeconomic statistics from Australia and stable data on Switzerland.The economic situation in Australia remains tense. The published data on the labor market turned out to be worse than analysts' expectations: the unemployment rate increased from 3.6% to 3.7% in September, while analysts expected it to remain at 3.6%. The number of employed decreased by 9.6 thousand, which also became a negative signal for the economy. In addition, the consumer confidence index decreased by 2.3%, indicating a decrease in confidence in the national economy. These data may prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to consider further monetary easing at the next meeting.From the Swiss side, the economic situation looks more stable. The latest inflation data showed a decrease in the consumer price index from 1.5% to 1.3% year-on-year, which confirmed the downward trend in inflationary pressure. This strengthens the Swiss franc, as the market expects the Swiss National Bank to continue its current monetary policy without significant changes. In addition, Switzerland's external trade balance continues to remain positive, maintaining the national currency at a high level.Resistance levels: 0.5980, 0.6020.Support levels: 0.5900, 0.5860.Copper market analysisAs of October 17, 2024, the price of copper shows moderate growth, correcting after a decrease the day before. Trading opened at $8,000 per tonne and is moving towards $8,080, which is 1.00% higher compared to the previous session.The rise in copper prices is supported by a number of economic factors. First of all, macroeconomic data from China, the world's largest copper consumer, had a positive impact. Thus, industrial production in September increased by 4.5% year-on-year, exceeding analysts' expectations of 4.2%. The business activity index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector also showed an increase to 51.2 points, indicating an expansion of activity in the sector. In addition, China announced measures to boost domestic consumption and exports, which supports demand for copper and other commodities. The copper market also faces risks related to the geopolitical situation in South America, especially in Chile, the largest copper producer. Amid protests and possible strikes in the mining sector, there are concerns about the supply of metal to international markets.Resistance levels: 8,100, 8,200.Support levels: 7,950, 7,900.Oil market analysisAt the October 17 trading session, Brent crude oil is trading with upward dynamics, again breaking the $90 per barrel mark, which is 0.5% higher compared to the last session. The main factors supporting growth remain concerns about supply constraints due to geopolitical instability in the Middle East, where tensions in the sector have escalated, including the most important transport hubs in the Persian Gulf region.The economic situation in the United States, the world's largest oil consumer, adds to the uncertainty in the market. According to the latest EIA report released on October 8, crude oil inventories in the United States decreased by 3.6 million barrels, reflecting steady domestic demand and affecting the prospects for price growth. At the same time, expectations for global economic growth remain mixed, as data from China show a slowdown in economic activity: The country's GDP grew by 4.9% in the third quarter, below forecasts, which also prompted a revision of oil forecasts. In particular, Barclays lowered its forecast for Brent to $93 per barrel for 2024, citing declining demand in both China and the United States.Resistance levels: $75.50, $76.80.Support levels: $73.00, ...
EUR/CAD: euro is under pressure due to weak economic indicatorsThe EUR/CAD pair is trading around 1.5008 as of October 10, showing a slight increase of 0.13% compared to the previous session. The pair is trying to stay above the 1.5000 level, despite some uncertainty in the economic performance of both countries and global currency markets.The economic situation in the eurozone remains under pressure, as data from Germany showed a 0.8% decline in industrial production in August. In addition, the business activity index (PMI) in the eurozone services sector also fell to 47.4 points, which signals a slowdown in economic activity. The European Central Bank, in turn, continues to support a tighter monetary policy, although recent statements by ECB members have signaled the possibility of suspending rate hikes, which causes concern among investors.On the other hand, the Canadian economy is also facing challenges. Last week, employment data showed a 0.4% increase in the number of jobs, which exceeded expectations. However, wage growth remains at 3.8% year-on-year, which may strengthen inflation expectations and push the Bank of Canada to further tighten monetary policy. The Canadian dollar has not yet received significant support, which keeps the EUR/CAD pair relatively stable.Resistance levels: 1.5070, 1.5100.Support levels: 1.4950, 1.4900.USDX: dollar is developing a short-term bullish trendIn the morning, the USDX index holds at 102.93, maintaining a strong short-term "bullish" trend, which contributes to the renewal of local highs recorded on August 16.The growth of the index is supported by revised expectations regarding the pace of further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. Against the background of the expected monetary policy adjustments of other leading central banks, this creates a competitive advantage for the US dollar. The attention of market participants was focused on the recently published minutes of the September FOMC meeting. Earlier, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stressed the importance of a cautious approach to lowering rates, which reinforced expectations of a smoother reduction. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut of -25 basis points in November is estimated at about 90.0%. As for the December meeting, analysts also forecast a decrease of 25 basis points, but forecasts remain less certain. The latest data on inflation in the United States, measured through the index of personal consumer spending, shows that in August the annual inflation rate was 2.2%, while the base indicator, excluding energy and food products, reached 2.7%. Labor market data also indicate some weakening: the average wage growth in the non-agricultural sector in July and August was lower than in the second quarter, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.Resistance levels: 102.75, 103.00, 103.30, 103.60.Support levels: 102.45, 102.23, 102.00, 101.67.Silver market analysisSilver (XAG/USD) is trading around 30.61 as of October 10, which is 0.43% higher compared to the previous session, reflecting a slight increase. Support is observed against the background of the weakening of the US dollar, which usually has a positive impact on dollar-denominated metals, including silver.The economic situation in the United States remains in the focus of investors' attention. In particular, inflation data (CPI) for September is expected to be published today, which may significantly affect the Fed's interest rate decisions and, accordingly, the value of silver. The consumer price index is expected to slow down, however, if the actual data turns out to be higher than forecast, this may strengthen expectations of further rate hikes and put pressure on silver. In addition, the recent decline in Chinese incentives has had an impact on industrial metals, limiting their growth, including silver, which remains in the range of $30.3–$30.6 per ounce. Tomorrow, October 11, China will present a report on the trade balance for September. Given that China is one of the largest consumers of industrial metals, such data may affect the mood in the silver market. Export growth is forecast, which could increase demand for metals and support the price of silver, especially against the background of China's recent efforts to stimulate domestic demand and strengthen the economy.Resistance levels: 30.50, 30.77, 31.15, 31.56.Support levels: 30.50, 30.00, 29.73, 29.35.Oil market analysisWTI crude oil is trading at about $74.40 per barrel as of October 10, showing stable growth against the background of supportive demand factors. The key driver of price movement remains a decrease in gasoline inventories in the United States, which caused positive expectations and led to higher prices. Gasoline inventories decreased by 6.3 million barrels during the week, indicating high demand and/or reduced supply, supporting oil price growth in the short term.Additionally, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has released an updated forecast according to which global oil demand will continue to grow and will amount to about 104.3 million barrels per day by 2025. The agency's current report highlights that demand growth is driven by a recovery in economic activity and significant consumption in non-OECD countries, which is likely to support oil prices over the coming months.Resistance levels: $75.65 and $76.30.Support levels: $73.70 and ...
EUR/CAD: the rate cut in Canada strengthened the position of the euroAs of August 22, 2024, the EUR/CAD currency pair is showing a steady upward trend, continuing to strengthen against the background of a weakening Canadian dollar and a moderately positive economic situation in the eurozone. The pair is trading around 1.5130 CAD, reflecting the strengthening of the euro against the background of the weakening of the Canadian currency.The economic situation in the eurozone looks stable, despite the continuing inflation risks. Recent data show that inflation in the euro area fell to 2.4% in March 2024, but core inflation remains at about 4%, which creates some pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) in terms of maintaining tight monetary policy. At the same time, economic activity in the service sector is showing signs of recovery, in contrast to manufacturing, which continues to stagnate. Economic growth in the eurozone is expected to resume at a moderate pace in the coming months.The Canadian dollar continues to be under pressure amid domestic economic problems. The recent interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada, linked to attempts to stimulate a slowing economy, has led to a weakening of the currency. Inflation expectations in Canada remain relatively stable, but slower growth and lower commodity prices, especially oil, have a negative impact on the currency. Technical analysis also indicates the predominance of bearish sentiment in the EUR/CAD pair, which is confirmed by oversold signals and the intersection of key resistance levels.Resistance levels: 1.5150, 1.5260.Support levels: 1.5070, 1.5000.AUD/CHF: Franc strengthening amid uncertainty in AustraliaAs of August 22, 2024, the AUD/CHF currency pair shows a weakening of the Australian dollar against the Swiss franc, trading around 0.5900 CHF. The pair is under pressure amid economic uncertainty in Australia and the strengthening of the Swiss franc.The economic situation in Australia remains difficult. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the key rate at 4.35% at the last meeting, but risks of further rate hikes remain due to high inflation expectations. Despite a slight decrease in the quarterly inflation rate, the data did not meet market expectations, which increased pressure on AUD. The publication of business activity indices (PMI) also indicated a continued decline in activity in the manufacturing sector, which negatively affected the Australian dollar.The Swiss franc, on the contrary, remains stable due to the cautious monetary policy of the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The expected change of the head of the bank probably will not lead to significant policy changes, which supports investors' confidence in the stability of the franc. Additionally, the Swiss franc continues to win as a safe haven currency amid global economic uncertainty, which also supports its strengthening.Resistance levels: 0.5950, 0.6000.Support levels: 0.5850, 0.5800.GBP/NZD: the Bank of England's rate cut has increased pressure on the poundAs of Thursday, August 22, the GBP/NZD currency pair is trading around 2.0629 NZD, which is 0.03% lower compared to the previous trading session. The pair is showing a slight decline amid growing concerns about the prospects for the UK economy and the stabilization of the situation in New Zealand.The economic situation in the UK remains tense. At a recent meeting, the Bank of England decided to reduce the interest rate by 25 basis points to 5%, which was a response to a slowdown in growth and a decrease in inflation, which, according to the latest data, amounted to 5.31% year-on-year in August. Despite this, the market expects further rate cuts, which may weaken the pound's position in the coming months. The decline in business activity, especially in the manufacturing sector, is also putting pressure on the GBP.New Zealand, on the contrary, demonstrates resilience due to a stable economic situation and moderate inflation. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left the key rate unchanged at 5.5%, which supports the exchange rate of the New Zealand dollar. Economic activity in the country remains stable despite global economic challenges. Moderate inflation and stable monetary policy of RBNZ support the New Zealand dollar, which allows it to strengthen its position against the British pound.Resistance levels: 2.0660, 2.0720.Support levels: 2.0580, 2.0520.Coffee market analysisAs of August 22, the price of coffee is showing steady growth against the background of global supply constraints and increasing demand, especially in Asian countries. At the moment, the price of coffee is trading around $2.15 per pound, which is 1.8% higher compared to the previous trading session. This growth is driven by a number of factors, including adverse weather conditions in key producing countries and the growing popularity of coffee in developing Asia.The economic situation in Brazil and Colombia, the two largest coffee producers, continues to have an impact on the market. In Brazil, drought and the spread of diseases such as coffee rust have reduced yields, resulting in a 5% decrease in supply compared to last year. In Colombia, political instability and economic difficulties have also led to a reduction in production, which puts pressure on world prices. These factors create tension in the market, which pushes prices up.At the same time, the growing demand for coffee in Asia, especially in countries such as China, India and Japan, continues to support high prices. Urbanization and the growth of the middle class are contributing to an increase in coffee consumption in the region. In China, the coffee market continues to grow at double-digit rates, and the number of cafes has increased by 58% over the past year, making it the largest market in terms of the number of points of sale in the world.Resistance levels: $2.20, $2.25.Support levels: $2.10, ...
NZD/USD: RBNZ considers measures to combat inflation effectiveThe NZD/USD pair is recovering its positions after two days of decline, when quotes reached local lows since August 7. The exchange rate is currently testing the 0.6015 level for a possible upward breakout.The New Zealand dollar was supported by the statements of Adrian Orr, head of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). He noted that the economic situation both in the country and abroad remains uncertain, despite efforts to keep inflation in the target range of 1.0–3.0%. Orr stressed that the current measures taken by RBNZ are sufficient to control price dynamics. The markets took these words as a signal to maintain a neutral monetary policy in the near future. Earlier, the RBNZ lowered the base rate to 5.25% for the first time since March 2020, with the possibility of further adjustments.Today, data on business activity in New Zealand were published: the index of activity in the manufacturing sector increased from 41.1 to 44.0 points in July. The indices of purchasing and selling prices of producers in the second quarter also showed an acceleration, exceeding analysts' expectations, which reduces the likelihood of further easing of monetary policy in the country.Resistance levels: 0.6030, 0.6047, 0.6068, 0.6085.Support levels: 0.6000, 0.5975, 0.5950, 0.5920.AUD/CHF: pair strengthens against the background of AUD weakness and CHF strengthAs of August 16, 2024, the AUD/CHF currency pair is showing strengthening, trading at 0.5731, which is 0.42% higher compared to the previous trading day. The pair shows steady upward movement despite the ongoing economic challenges in Australia and the strengthening of the Swiss franc.The economic situation in Australia remains difficult. Recent data showed a decline in export performance and a continued slowdown in economic growth, which puts pressure on the Australian dollar (AUD). The Reserve Bank of Australia maintains a loose monetary policy, keeping interest rates low to support economic growth. However, despite these measures, economic weakness and declining demand for key export commodities such as iron ore continue to keep AUD under pressure.On the other hand, the Swiss franc (CHF) remains strong due to the stable Swiss economy and continued low inflation. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to adhere to an interventionist policy, supporting the franc exchange rate in the face of global uncertainty and increased demand for safe assets. These factors contribute to the strengthening of the CHF, making it attractive to investors, which puts pressure on the AUD/CHF currency pair.Resistance levels: 0.5800, 0.5900.Support levels: 0.5700, 0.5650.EUR/CAD: lower rates in Canada support euro growthOn August 16, 2024, the EUR/CAD currency pair shows moderate growth, trading at 1.5072, which is 0.07% higher compared to the previous day. This move reflects the advantage of the euro over the Canadian dollar against the background of recent economic news and market expectations.The economic situation in the eurozone continues to influence the euro exchange rate. Recent data indicate a slowdown in economic activity in Germany, which creates certain risks for the euro. Nevertheless, expectations of monetary easing in the US are supporting the euro as investors look for more stable assets. In addition, inflation rates in the eurozone remain within the expected values, which also helps to keep the euro at current levels.The Canadian dollar, on the other hand, is weakened by the actions of the Bank of Canada, which has cut its key interest rate twice in recent months, which was a reaction to the stabilization of inflation in the range of 2.5% - 2.7%. It is expected that in September 2024, the Bank of Canada may take additional measures to reduce rates if the economic situation does not improve. These expectations add pressure on the Canadian currency, which contributes to the growth of the EUR/CAD pair.Resistance levels: 1.5118, 1.5200.Support levels: 1.4896, 1.4800.Silver market analysisAs of August 16, 2024, silver prices are showing moderate strengthening, trading around $27.90 per ounce, which represents an increase of 1.65% over the past day. The silver price movement is related to the current geopolitical tensions, in particular, with the intensification of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, which traditionally increases the demand for safe assets, including precious metals.The economic situation and expectations regarding the policy of the US Federal Reserve System also play an important role in shaping silver prices. Investors are closely monitoring US inflation data and expected changes in interest rates. It is assumed that the Fed's rate cuts may support demand for silver, especially in the face of weak industrial demand from the United States and China. At the same time, ongoing concerns about declining industrial demand from these key consumers limit the potential for price increases.In the long term, analysts predict a possible increase in silver prices due to the expected increase in demand for the metal in the green energy sector, especially in the solar energy sector, as well as a possible shortage of supply amid restrictions in silver mining.Resistance levels: $29.41, $30.00.Support levels: $26.10, ...