Trading signals and online forecasts Natural Gas

The world economy is constantly changing. In December 2022 we were forecasted a terrible recession. But in early 2023, the economic data says otherwise: the markets have taken off and investors are looking positively into the future.What's Happening to the U.S. EconomyLet's start with the US. The U.S. economy is in serious turmoil. Take a look at the S&P 500 Index since the beginning of the year. Do you see this constant up and down movement? That's because investors have stopped believing in the Fed. And they think the Central Bank won't keep monetary policy tight. But let's see:The U.S. interest rate is 4.5-4.75%. In January, the markets expected it not to rise beyond 5%.But in January, inflation was already slowing not as much as experts had expected. That said, demand in the U.S. continues to rise. So the American consumer does not suffer from high prices. Especially since the U.S. has the strongest labor market in 60 years.The latest macro data show that the Fed has no reason to slow down its policy. So a rise in the U.S. market is premature.We predict that the Fed's fight against inflation will drag on, because price increases are steady. So the Fed rate will get to 5.25-5.5% and stop there. And at the same time, the regulator will drive the U.S. economy into recession. Otherwise, inflation in the U.S. will not be stopped. Most likely in March at the Fed meeting, officials will be tough. And then the markets will come to their senses.What will happen to the dollar in 2023.The dollar itself will be strong. Tough Fed action will keep the DXY near 100 points. It will be difficult to rise above the highs of September, as the policies of other central banks are getting tougher than those of the United States. Just look at the changes in Japan, where the era of super easy money is coming to an end. And the ECB's policy is also tough. So let's talk about the euro area.What's happening to Europe's economyEurope's problems are similar to those in the U.S., only the inflation rate in the Union is much higher. Investors and officials are happy to see that price growth in the EU is slowing rapidly: in October, it was 10.6%, but now it's 8.5%.Eurozone industrial production fell 1.1% in December 2022. The economy is slowing down amid high inflation, which is exactly what the ECB is fighting.The regulator raised interest rates by 0.5% in early February. The same increase is planned for March. And even then the rate will not stop rising. Such statements from the ECB have been trying to dampen market optimism. Where is the positivity coming from? Recession is likely to be avoided: the energy crisis is gone and the supply chain is recovering.Since the beginning of the year, euro zone blue chips have been rising as strongly as the U.S. market. But inflation is still high and monetary policy is tight. So it's too early to rejoice.In addition, the energy crisis can come back to the EU at any time. Because Russia is cutting oil production and OPEC is not going to increase production. Prices will go up - Goldman Sachs predicts oil at $105.What will happen to the euro in 2023The European currency looks stronger than the American one. Exactly because the ECB policy now looks tougher than the Fed actions. Which we have already talked about. Now let's move on to another global economy, China.What's going on with China's economyThere are 2 main topics of conversation in China right now: the opening of the economy after covid restrictions and tensions with the U.S.China has officially "decisively defeated" COVID. So restrictions in the Celestial Empire should no longer stifle production and disrupt supply chains. China's opening promises to be massive. The UN and IMF expect 4.8% growth, while Morgan Stanley expects 5.7%.During the lockdowns, the Chinese have accumulated the money to unleash demand. Household deposits exceed 100% of last year's GDP, The Economist noted. Inflation in China rose to 2.1% in January, showing a pickup in demand.Markets are counting on China to pull the entire global economy up with it. On its own, China has a chance to take off - the covid shackles will fall after all. But external pressures could stifle growth.High inflation in the U.S. forces the Fed to keep rates high in the economy. And that means business activity will slow against this backdrop, and so will demand for Chinese goods.We predict that the Chinese central bank may be stiff in its policy. The population has large savings, demand for exports is declining, and inflation is rising. And because of this, China's market growth may slow down. China is now highly dependent on Western demand and it is the main beacon for the Celestial market.What will happen to the yuan in 2023The yuan is also a headache and uncertainty. Will China be able to successfully open up? Will there be a global recession? It is still unclear how China will survive U.S. restrictions. The decline in trade with the U.S. is negative for the renminbi.But a big positive could be the use of the RMB in international trade. First of all oil. The more countries move away from the dollar and euro to the yuan, the stronger it will be.In the near future the yuan is unlikely to strengthen - there is nothing to strengthen it on. Even it will gradually decline: demand for Chinese goods is decreasing and geopolitical tensions are growing.World economic outlook for 2023The outlook for the global economy is not good. Growth is slowing - the problems are starting in the West and dragging the East with them. After all, economies are still very closely integrated, no matter what political slogans about the "polarity" of the world say.Markets behave ambiguously. And at such moments, distortions and inefficiencies appear - someone doesn't know something, someone doesn't understand something. You can make money or lose money on this.We make forecasts because we are constantly watching macroeconomics and market data. Don't take them as a signal to act, but as the opinion of our team. But don't forget - look at the economy and markets more broadly, don't let short-term fluctuations distort your perception and your ...

Europe is heavily dependent on Russian gas, accounting for all of Russia's gas exports. However, Russia is far from being the only supplier to the EU; there are other sellers of pipeline gas: Algeria; Libya; Turkmenistan; Kazakhstan.In addition, from Algeria, Libya and the United States comes liquefied gas through terminals in ports.There are also three other pipelines besides the Russian ones. However, they were used in Europe locally, because they were less profitable. Accordingly, the infrastructure was not prepared for them either.Gas pipelines to EuropeTrans-Sahara Gas PipelineThis pipeline will connect Nigeria, Algeria and Europe. It currently carries fuel from Algeria and Libya to Spain and Italy and from there it can be transported to other countries.The pipeline capacity is up to 30 billion cubic meters per year from Nigeria. But the capacity of the sections going to Europe will remain the same. So, annual deliveries will remain at the level of about 10% of European imports.It is important that this pipeline should "live" for a long time: Nigeria has the 10th largest gas reserves in the world. So the gas in the Trans-Sahara pipeline will run out later than in other pipelines.This year, at the instigation of Europe, Algeria and Nigeria returned to discussing the construction of the pipeline, and they want to launch it in the first half of 2023. But since the regions of Africa are turbulent, and there have been problems with repair and maintenance of the pipeline on the Trans-Sahara route before, additional investments and a lot of time may be required for the pipe to be able to pump large volumes.At the same time, due to the conflict between Algeria and Morocco, 12 billion cubic meters of gas are no longer transited to Europe annually. If these countries reconcile, the EU could see an inflow of this gas again.Eastern Mediterranean Gas PipelineThe East Mediterranean Gas Pipeline is used to transport gas from Israel to Greece and Italy. It is a fairly young pipeline, it is supposed to carry 12 billion cubic meters of gas per year. True, the gas reserves in Israel are small - only 0.2% of the world's gas reserves, but there is still the Aphrodite field in Cyprus, which is due to start operating in 2024-25. This year, however, the U.S. stopped sponsoring its development because of environmental concerns and Turkey's involvement.Trans-Caspian Gas PipelineTurkmenistan has the world's 6th largest gas reserves, while Kazakhstan has the 15th largest. The Trans-Caspian pipeline will connect these countries to the Southern Gas Corridor. In its current form, its throughput capacity is about 10 billion cubic meters of gas per year. Turkmenistan itself currently accounts for about 1% of European gas imports.But even here not everything is simple: in order to increase the volume of annual pumping, it is necessary to improve the pipes that go to Europe. And the Trans-Caspian pipeline itself may be difficult to build. Not only that: according to the 2018 convention, Russia may prohibit the creation of new pipelines in the Caspian Sea for environmental reasons.LNGAlmost half of Europe's gas imports are now LNG. It can come by sea from almost all over the world, although it is most profitable to buy African or U.S. gas. But Europe's problem is that it lacks the infrastructure for LNG.Spain could become a new European gas hub. It gets a lot of gas from Algeria and is the most infrastructurally prepared to receive LNG from the U.S. or Qatar. 72% of all Spanish gas imports come by sea in the form of LNG. It is enough to build a pipeline to France so that Europe can receive global LNG through a hub in Spain, but that too takes time and investment.In addition, you also need to build and modify the infrastructure to use LNG. And if a country has been using only classical gas for a long time - like Germany, for example - its infrastructure is hardwired for pipeline gas, and it will be difficult to change it.Another problem is in LNG tankers. There are only about 500 ships in the world, so there might not be enough for everybody at once. Europe alone buys about 3 billion cubic meters of liquefied gas a week - i.e. approximately 6 million cubic meters in the liquid form. To transport them, more than 30 tankers are needed every week, and it is not known whether they will always be available. And as the Russian pipelines are being abandoned, the need for LNG will only grow. This means more tankers will be needed, because other foreign pipelines simply won't be able to cover all the falling out of Russian capacity.As a result, there can be a fight for gas inside Europe. Whoever puts up more bids, that's where it goes. As a result, competition between the countries through which gas is transited cannot be ruled out. This is also true for LNG, which is distributed by pipeline, and for long foreign pipelines. Not only that: there is also competition with countries outside the EU.Will Russia stay in the European market?So far, the three key pipelines mentioned above can cover about half of Russia's supply shortfall. There is potential for volume growth - but it could take years. And even LNG will not solve the problem quickly. It can be brought, for example, to Spain - but this gas can not be delivered to any EU country, you need to build your own domestic pipelines.Thus, Russian gas supplies to Europe will remain for the years to come, though the EU will try to buy it at minimum. But in the long term, Russia itself may have problems: its exports, company revenues and budget will fall. Moreover, the secondary sanctions against countries working with Russia may become tougher after new regions join the Russian Federation. As a result, one cannot fully rely on "friendly" partners either. More about Natural Gas tradingIf you are interested in Natural Gas analytics, we recommend you to visit the analytics page, where you can find the latest analytics on Forex from top traders from all over the world. These analytics will be useful both for beginners and professional traders. The Forex signals service makes it much easier for beginners to make their first steps in trading on the financial markets. The latest Natural Gas forecasts and signals contain support and resistance levels, as well as stop-loss ...

The energy crisis continues to move confidently around the world. This time, trouble came from nowhere: one of the largest LNG ports in the USA, Freeport, stopped working for 3 weeks due to an explosion. As a result, the deadline for the planned energy independence of Europe is being pushed back.Why is Freeport so important? Freeport accounts for about 18% of U.S. LNG exports, which is a significant share. At the same time, the USA itself is the largest LNG exporter in the world. Previously, liquefied gas was also sent from Freeport to the markets of Japan and South Korea.However, after the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine and the imposition of an embargo on Russian energy carriers, European consumers took over the main LNG supplies from Freeport. For example, in May, the main buyers were the United Kingdom and Spain, which have terminals for receiving LNG.  According to ICIS data, in March up to 80% of Freeport LNG cargo was shipped to Europe, as well as to Turkey.As representatives of Freeport LNG reported, the shutdown of the LNG processing plant may last up to 3 weeks. However, Vortexa analysts predict a longer suspension – until the end of July. At the same time, the plant's productivity will decrease by 8% in August.What will the problems in Freeport lead to?Force majeure in Freeport is a huge problem for Europe. After all, the leaders of the Old World abandoned Russian coal and Russian oil, and now there are problems with LNG.As previously reported by politicians, Europe planned to limit the demand for Russian gas by 66% by the end of the year. In general, these plans are still feasible if the dropped LNG supplies are replaced with gas reserves in storage facilities that have been filled in recent months.However, not everything is so simple. According to the Director of Energy, Climate and Resources of Eurasia Group, destructive hurricanes can cover the United States this summer, complicating the extraction of energy resources in the Gulf of Mexico. And then the winter for the EU can be very difficult.Representatives of the German government also expect a cold and difficult winter for the country. Gas prices in the autumn-winter period may again be at highs. And here a dangerous chain looms: rising energy prices will lead to more stable inflation, which is already at its peak in Europe. This will force the ECB to take the path of a more drastic tightening of monetary policy: an increase in rates will lead to an increase in treasury bond yields. Countries with a large amount of public debt may come under attack: Italy, Greece and, possibly, Spain.At the same time, the explosion in Freeport is a "happy accident" for Russia. After all, now the seventh EU sanctions package, which is expected to include a gas embargo, will surely be delayed. And closer to autumn, we may see an increasing number of countries agreeing to pay for gas in ...

Gas supplies from Russia are now declining, and there is constant talk about the introduction of a full embargo. But at the same time, the European Commission announced standards according to which the occupancy of gas storage facilities should be at the level of 80% by October 1, and 90% by November 1. After all, with the onset of winter, the rules of the game may change, and Russia will already be able to use the embargo as the strongest geopolitical weapon.How is the filling of LNG storage facilities progressing? According to AGSi+, so far the EU countries have filled their underground gas storage facilities by 42.62%.Filling level of UGS:in Poland - 87.88%;in Portugal - 89.31%;in the Czech Republic - 51.53%;in Germany - 41.46%;in France - 42.24%;in Italy - 44,22%;in the Netherlands - 32.33%;in Bulgaria - 20.7%;in Hungary - 25.13%;in Austria - 26.06%;in Belgium - 24.33%.And this is very little: 3.8% lower than the average for the last 5 years, although almost 7% more than last year.Why can't Russian gas be completely replaced?First of all, LNG from the United States and Qatar is considered an alternative to Russian gas, whose supplies to Europe increased by 47.7% in April compared to last April. Nevertheless, the total LNG reserves in Europe have not increased so much: by only 2% compared to 2021 and by 11% compared to the average over the past 5 years.It is also said that in April-May, significant volumes of LNG were redirected from Asia to Europe. But it succeeded, among other things, due to the decline in economic activity in China against the background of another wave of covid. And it will end someday.At the same time, the peak of LNG purchases for the winter around the world always falls in the summer - and Bloomberg journalists are already predicting the onset of a supply crisis in this market this summer. The World Gas Conference in South Korea, which will be held this week, will be devoted to how to cope with the growing gap between supply and demand. According to Rystad Energy, global demand for LNG in 2022 will reach 436 million tons, exceeding 410 million tons of available supply.Valerie Chow, Head of Gas and LNG Research in the Asia-Pacific Region at Wood Mackenzie Ltd, believes:The market will be tense ahead of winter as buyers from Europe and North Asia compete for volumes.In addition, there are also infrastructural limitations with regard to LNG - the lack of special LNG terminals. There are enough of them in the Western part of Europe, but in Central and Eastern Europe, there are only three of them — in Croatia, Lithuania and Poland.What is the EU planning for Russian gas?Europe's plan to reduce imports of pipeline Russian gas by two-thirds by the end of the year is theoretically feasible, but it contributes to the shortage of LNG on the world market and the inevitable price increase. Moreover, the infrastructure for pumping Russian gas has been developed for decades, but this cannot be said about LNG.An interesting fact: in recent days, the trading turnover for the euro-ruble pair on the Moscow Stock Exchange has risen above historical highs. It is possible that the EU is still secretly buying the hated Russian gas for ...