Trading signals and online forecasts USD/CNH

Today, investors' attention is focused on the most important macroeconomic and political events. In Sweden, the results of a survey of inflation expectations conducted by the Origo group (formerly Prospera) are being published. The Riksbank focuses on the need to keep long-term (5–year) inflation expectations close to the target of 2%, which has been stable in the range of 1.9-2.1% since the beginning of 2024. We do not expect any sharp deviations from these values this month.In the UK, inflation data for January is on the agenda. Both the general price level and the base indicator are expected to rise, which is facilitated by higher prices for fuel and educational services. Service inflation is projected to rise to 5.1% against the expected 5.0%. This will be the last inflation report before the March meeting of the Bank of England, where markets do not attach much probability to a rate cut. Analysts believe that the next interest rate cut is possible only in May.This morning, China is publishing data on new home prices, which serve as an important indicator of the state of the real estate market. Recent reports show that the rate of price decline has slowed, which is in line with other indicators indicating a moderate recovery in housing demand. We expect prices to remain at about the same level in January as in December, indicating market stabilization.Market news and recent eventsIn the United States, President Trump has announced plans to impose tariffs of 25% on automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductor chips. Although no specific date has been announced for the start of tariffs, he also confirmed the launch of tariffs on steel and aluminum from March 12. The markets will try to assess the sincerity of these statements today.Regarding the situation in Ukraine, American and Russian officials held their first meeting in Saudi Arabia aimed at ending the war – without Ukraine's participation. Both sides agreed to lay the foundations for future cooperation, with discussions on territorial arrangements and security guarantees expected in the future. Putin's foreign policy adviser noted that the United States and Russia are working on preparing a meeting between Trump and Putin.Sweden has published a detailed inflation report for January, which showed annual CPI growth slightly below expectations – 0.9% against the projected 1.0%, with a monthly change of 0.0%. At the same time, the CPIF baseline indicator excluding energy confirmed a preliminary value of 2.7% per annum, which may signal an increase in inflationary pressure.The UK has released a report on the labor market for December and January, where the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.4%, and the number of people employed exceeded expectations, largely due to data on the public sector. This indicates that the Bank of England is likely to continue its cautious easing policy.In Germany, the February ZEW index rose above expectations, reaching -88.5, the highest in four months, while expectations for future market improvements increased to 26.0, significantly exceeding the forecast of 20.0. These data indicate the continuation of positive surprises in the German economy, despite the general stagnation, which, in turn, is a signal of stability.Market analysisStock markets continued their moderate growth. Yesterday, assets increased slightly despite the fact that the American stock exchanges were closed. European markets added about 0.5%, setting a new closing record for the year, and shares in the defense sector rose especially noticeably – Swedish SAAB recorded an increase of 16% per day and 30% per week. Markets in Asia are also showing strong positions, with South Korean stocks up 2% and some countries seeing significant annual gains of up to 10%. US index futures are slightly higher today.The debt market in Europe is experiencing an increase in government spending on defense and assistance to Ukraine. The EU is considering various financing mechanisms for these costs, which has caused government bond yields to rise, although spreads between peripheral and central countries remain narrow, indicating there is no clear desire to flee to safety.In the foreign exchange market, the Japanese yen showed the best dynamics among the G10 currencies, which was facilitated by the strong growth of the Japanese economy in the fourth quarter of 2024. EUR/USD is holding just below 1.05, while USD/CAD has stabilized around 1.42 following the release of Canada's January CPI, in line with expectations. The EUR/GBP exchange rate dropped to 0.83, and the following changes are observed in the Scandinavian region: EUR/SEK dropped below 11.22, and EUR/NOK – below 11.64. These movements indicate continued pressure on regional ...

The energy crisis in the U.S. is growing, already affecting one in six households. 20 million families across the country simply can't pay their bills.How much are utilities in the U.S. already short?Electricity debts are growing exponentially; the amount has doubled in just 2.5 years:pre-Covid - $8 billion nationally;December 2021 - $13.1 billion;June 2022, $16 billion.The least protected, low-income segments of the population are under attack. Incidentally, they are the ones who have been hit by the main covid restrictions: from 2019 to mid-2021, debts were growing mainly because COVID kept them out of work. Now this problem has disappeared, but another one has appeared: it is possible to work, the money is paid, but it is eaten up by inflation: food and fuel have become extremely expensive.In Europe and Great Britain the crisis is even more acute. The local authorities have already earmarked $280 billion to ease the energy crisis. And in the U.S., aside from a small $4 billion Liheap subsidy program, there is nothing yet, and new aid laws are still being drafted.What can investors expect from the Utilities sector next?It is not easy for investors in such a situation, forecasts on Utilities stock prices are foggy.On the one hand, rates for individuals are strictly regulated. If overdue debts become even higher, the authorities will be reluctant to raise prices.On the other hand, if they fail to raise prices in the B2C segment, power supply companies will be able to pass on the costs to the B2B segment.Doubtful ideas for investment: a list of utilitiesAnd if so, investors should avoid regulated companies with a large share of the B2C segment, viz:Dominion Energy (D);Duke Energy (DUK);PG&E (PCG);Xcel Energy (XEL).In addition, their equipment runs on natural resources, including gas, which are more expensive than others.Among independent energy producers, NRG Energy (NRG) has the worst prospects, since its facilities are mainly powered by coal and natural gas.Who looks promising in the Utilities sector?The power generating companies with water capacity are much less likely to be affected by the crisis:American Water Works (AWK);Essential Utilities (WTRG).Renewable energy supply companies will also fare well:Constellation Energy (CEG);Algonquin Power & Utilities (AQN).Vistra Corp. (VST) will be neutral, as its capacity is more diversified between gas, nuclear and ...

Chinese investors come out to mass protests. For example, on July 10, thousands of people came to the branch of the People's Bank of China in Zhenzhou, since their deposits in 4 banks have been frozen since April:Yuzhou Xinminsheng Village;Zhecheng Huanghuai Community;Shangcai Huimin County;New Oriental County Bank.How it happened: why depositors lost access to their savingsThere are a lot of regional private banks in China, they are also called "rural". According to the law, they must carry out their activities exclusively "at the place of residence". But in practice, this did not prevent them from attracting deposits from people from all over the Middle Kingdom through online platforms - including Du Xiaoman Financial and JD Finance, owned by Baidu and JD.com . And the authorities just turned a blind eye to it.However, recently the national regulator accused a major shareholder of the four listed banks, Henan New Fortune Group, of illegally attracting depositors' money.Did Covid hit the discontented?The authorities, alas, are clearly not on the side of the victims.The first protests took place back in May, the next action was to take place in mid-June - cheated depositors from all over China were going to come to it. But then their electronic "health codes" suddenly changed from green to red, which means that a person is sick with covid and must stay at home in quarantine. So it didn't work out to get together.Well, at the rally on July 10, the security forces, both in uniform and in civilian clothes, penetrated into the crowd and began beating the protesters.But what about deposit insurance?In banks, customers were told that deposit products were legal and protected by the deposit insurance system. In China, deposits of 500,000 yuan (~$75,000) are guaranteed in case of bank bankruptcy. But if a government investigation finds the deposits "not in accordance with the law," then the depositors will never see their money.It is also unknown who exactly has to pay the debts of "rural" banks: local authorities or central ones? However, after the latest protests, it was reported that the first payments to victims of the banking industry should take place this Friday.What is happening in China in July 2022?Social tension in China is growing, and more and more often you can hear about the clashes of the population with the authorities: people are locked up in factories, then they do not give out deposits. But the 20th Party Congress is on the nose.China is not such a communist country. When it comes to financial pyramids and the interests of banks, such a draconian version of capitalism is flourishing in the country that Wall Street is resting.So far, the protests are centered around four small banks. In total, there are about 4,000 such "banks" in China, which collectively control assets worth $14 trillion. But who are they lending to? What if the problems of the first 4 swallows are directly related to problems in the real sector?For example, the combined sales of 100 leading developers have already "collapsed" by half, the construction sector (30% of China's GDP) can pull the entire Chinese economy with it.  And this, in turn, is able to "test the strength" of a larger number of banks and the entire deposit insurance ...

Shanghai is the industrial center of China with the world's largest deep-water port in terms of cargo turnover. The closure of the city for a lockdown hit the retail trade hard, so after the information about the partial lifting of the bans appeared, the shares of retailers rose in price. Now the authorities are gradually opening supermarkets, shopping centers and pharmacies, allowing them to work at 75% capacity. But for retailers, this is a good sign of an increase in profits in the near future.The lockdown in China seriously affected the consumption of petroleum products and reduced the demand for black gold on the world market, which has already been reflected in Brent quotes. In the coming days, transport should start operating in Shanghai, which will reunite the most populous city with the main part of China, against this background, demand for petroleum products will begin to recover. An increase in industrial activity will also contribute to the growth of demand for black gold in the country, as the purchasing managers' index in the manufacturing sector (PMI) rose to 49.6 this month. Despite the fact that economic growth is indicated by data above 50, a sharp jump from 47.4 to 49.6 in May of this year already indicates a recovery in business activity of enterprises. Against the background of growing demand for petroleum products in China, we can also expect an increase in world prices for black gold to $120 per barrel of Brent.Retailers expect the shares of oil and logistics companies to rise, as they, too, should become beneficiaries of the recovery of the Chinese economy. In addition, the shares of electric vehicle manufacturers are expected to grow, as the country's authorities have included subsidies for electric vehicles in the list of stimulating economic activity. This will stimulate their sales and have a positive impact on the financial results of the ...